150,000 views

Since the 15th April 2012 one hundred and fifty thousand people have now visited my blog and I just wanted to say thank you to everyone that has contributed to its success. I hope we can continue to make money together and hopefully I will continue my rich vein of form tomorrow at Glorious Goodwood.

Thanks again

8:05 Perth

Wave Power (12/1) - 1pt e/w - went off as favourite last time out in a class 3 contest and the current price looks massively overpriced for a horse who is still unexposed over fences.

Beverly Info

I haven't spoken to my guy about the Hill's runners today at this meeting but I have received a very strong word for James Tate's runner in the maiden at 2:25. The horse in question is called Cape's Best and its expected to run a big race despite its wide draw. Currently available at a best price of 11/1 and I have had 1pt e/w.


Knew this would happen, just received a word for Linguine who has grown up at home and should go very close with the ground in his favour. I've made my bed now though so I won't be backing the Hill's runner as well but I have a feeling I'm hunting for a place. Further write up on their other runners to follow..

Glorious Goodwood

2:00 - Retrieve (9/1) -1pt e/w - has a lot in his favour and with conditions to suit he should run a big race at a nice price for those looking for a really big outsider, I have had a positive word for Spanish Duke.


2:35 - Encke (10/1) - 1pt e/w - All the the talk is about the two horses at the head of the market but I'm not sure Gosden will be going all out to win the race with Michelangelo and Nobel Mission looks to have inherited a few of his brothers negative traits without the considerable dose of raw talent. Encke is an interesting type who has a nice pedigree. Despite having a set back the yard has kept him in training and resisted the urge to geld him which suggest they expect better this season. Last year I heard great things about him before his injury and his first time out win looked very promising. I wouldn't be surprised if he stepped up today and providing that the ground stays good, he has a major part to play in this race.


3:10 - Chachmaidee (7/4) - 3pt win - Incredibly unlucky not to win last time out and should make amends today providing that Queally doesn't fluff his lines at the start.

That's it for the time being at Goodwood but I will be providing some information on the Hill's runners today and also have one lined up at Beverly which should swell the pockets for what looks to be a bumper days racing tomorrow. 

Today's Selections

Just finishing off studying the last few races on the card and I will be posting up my three bets for today in the next hour or so but I do have a spot of info which I will post up now so that people can have a look at it before deciding whether to back it.

The horse in question is MOLDOWNEY and he runs in the 6:40 at Galway, he is considered to be a group horse in the making and connections have kept their powder dry for a few weeks since Ascot with this race and good ground the intended target. The horse is currently priced up at around 5/1 so offers a bit of e/w value but  he is apparently expected to win as the other horses towards the head of the market don't look too special and it would be disappointing for connections if this well thought of Dalakhani colt doesn't go close before heading onto bigger and better things.

6:40 Galway - Molodowney (5/1) - 3pt win



Update

2:15 Yarmouth - Jumeirah Moon (1/1) - 3pt win

2:25 Lingfield - Ziefhd (7/2) - 3pt win (C/O Richard Ryan)

2:35 Ayr - Hamwahjobo (12/1) - 1pt e/w

3:05 Ayr - Forrest Flyer (14/1) - 1pt e/w

5:10 Lingfield - Mizbah (3/1) - 3pt win

2:20 Ponte

Pippy (13/2) - 1pt ew

3:10 Carlisle

Mirrored (3/1) - 3pt win (info)

I don't say this very often but the word I've had for this one is incredibly strong and in the words of the source this is lump on and don't look back material. I don't like Sunday racing and claimers are sketchy so I'm sticking to 3pts but that's going against every instinct which is to max bet this one.

One Selections

3:50 Ponte - Rugged Cross (3/1) - 3pt win - be very surprised if this horse didn't go close today, this has apparently been on his radar for a while and with the weight to age concessions the other horses will have a lot to find.

6:40 Salisbury

Benzanno (3/1) - 3pt win - No brainer bet for me although Mayo Lad will be hard to beat, Benzanno looks like much better value and its always important to start with the top weight in these types of races and this horse ticks the majority of my key criteria.

2:35 York

White Frost (12/1) - 1pt e/w - should go very close today.

Today's Selections

2:15 Newmarket - Bright Strike (7/2) - 3pt win

2:20 Ascot - Scatter Dice (7/4) - 6pt max win

3:10 York - Ransom Note (10/1) - 1pt e/w (info)

5:20 York - Dutch Masterpiece (15/8) - 3pt win


Potentially a few more bets to follow later this afternoon but we will see how things go.

7:00 York

Ebn Arab (10/3) - 3pt win-ew price would be ideal but now not viable due to the non runners so it's a win bet

Quannaas

For those who like to back shorties, this horse will win the 5:00 but he is way too short for me

3:40 Ascot

Hajras (3/1) - 6pt max bet

Today's Selections

2:55Ascot - Dansili Dual (4/1) - 3pt win
3:55 Thirsk - Cactus Valley (7/4) - 3pt win
4:05 Ascot - Montaser (2/1) - 3pt win
8:10 Newmarket - Expert Fighter (7/4) - 3pt win


Info - 2:55 Ascot - Newstead Abbey (18/1) - much better showing expected from this horse today and despite already backing Dansili I have had a further 1pt e/w on this one.

Write up on the sole Hill's runner to follow later this afternoon but I was told about the horse earlier in the year and I would guess that it is strongly fancied today.

3:50 Bath

West Leake Hare (7/4) - 3pt win

3:05 Sandown

RAYAHEEN (3.0 betfair) - 6pt win (Max Bet)

Hill's Runners

2:00 Sandown - Red Dragon - Horse is a nice type and has plenty of speed, he was very green on debut but connection have taken their time with him and he has being working well at home and is though to be capable of winning a low grade maiden. The Hannon horse clearly sets the standard and will be very hard to beat but RD may be capable of putting up a fight but the as there are only 2 places up for grab due to the non runners I won't be having a bet.


3:40 Sandown - Fadhaa - This one is a frustrating type who was once held in high regard but hasn't kicked on so far this season. As a result he drops into class 4 company today and connections would be disappointed if he wasn't competitive in this company. He is currently priced up around 6/1 and plenty have had a bet e/w. If it wasn't for the presence of the Stoute runner who sports a first time visor this one would be win bet material.


6:10 Doncaster - Society Pearl - Well bred Kheleyf filly who has been showing up well at home and could prove to be a decent type. Obviously Becky Lou is the one to beat and she has been heavily supported but Society may well be capable of upsetting the apple cart and is seemingly quite far forward. She gallops for fun at home and should be suited by track which was given preference over tomorrows meeting at Ascot and rates as a good e/w bet (small stakes only though).


7:15 Doncaster - Willies Wonder - I have to be honest, I don't rate this horse and he is definitely one of the stables lessor lights. No bet advised, slim chance of a place if the race pans out in his favour but not hopeful.


7:40 Epsom - Moodhill - The horse surprised connections slightly when he won last time out but he is believed to be capable of further improvement over this trip off his current mark but his last run does throw up a few question marks about his preferred ground. The other unknown is whether he will handle the course as it is a specialist track and he hasn't experienced anything like it before, for all that he is well drawn and clearly unexposed but just has a few too many question marks for me at what is probably a short enough price against experienced rivals.


6:20 Folkstone - Mayaasem & Rosina Bay - Rosina Bay is thought to be a handicap prospect but Mayaasem has had this race in mind for a while and should run well. The yard have a nice line of form through Ayaar and know what they're going to get from that runner but the unknown is obviously the Godolphin horse who has an absolutely stunning pedigree and hails from a yard who can ready a first timer. The real problem for this horse though is the draw as well all know how difficult it is to win from a low stall at this particular course. He does stay a bit further than 7f though so a lot will depend on how the race pans out but if money comes for the Godolphin horse and Mayaasem drifts out a bit then plenty will be having a punt e/w.


6:55 Folkstone - Desert Strike - Is a horse on a serious downward spiral and connections have never really found the key to him since he moved to the yard. As a result he drops in to selling company which is an area which the camp rarely ventures into. The general feeling is that the fav will be hard to beat but despite being disadvantaged by the weights and the draw, desert should really be capable of beating the majority of this weak field. Even though he may go close, very few are staking their hard earned and neither am I.


7:25 Folkstone - Dark Don - Starting life of a fair handicap mark and the drop back in trip together with good ground will definitely be in this horse favour. Again he hasn't got the best draw but its a small field so shouldn't hinder him too much but he will need to break well which is something he didn't do on his last appearance. It doesn't look like a great race though and the camp would be disappointed if this one didnt really make this a test for the other horses at the head of the market - Win bet advised.


2:40 Bath - Complexity - A nice type but thought to be one for another day and will probably need the run up against some more experienced horses could possibly grab a place but will probably look for a bonus race later in the summer. Despite that though he has worked well at home and it doesn't look like a particularly strong maiden so may be one for e/w backer if he breaks on terms.


3:15 Bath - Lucky Beggar - won well last time out and has established himself as a soft ground horse, today's conditions and better opposition may therefore cause a few problems but he is currently trading at some big prices on the exchanges and he may be worth a small place punt. I fancy the Taj though so won't be backing.


3:50 Bath West Leake Hare - Drawn high, Callan booked, up against easier opposition and expected to do the business on its way to the charity race at Goodwood. Win bet advised


5:00 Bath - Gordon Flash - Hasn't been with the yard and connections are still learning but they do feel that he can be competitive off his current mark. They're not 100% sure what he best distance is yet and if it proves to be 1m 5f then he will go very close today but I for one will wait and see how he goes.

Early Selections

A ridiculously busy day today and with the Hill's camp sending out a buck load of runners across the meetings I will be concentrating on their horses but will be waiting to receive the call before make my selections. Three horse I have already back today though are Runaway girl, the heavily backed Exceedexpectations and Bridgehampton who are all very well fancied.

3:30 Sandown - Bridgehampton - (4/1) - 3pt win
5:50 Folkstone - Exceedexpectations (5/1) - 1pt e/w
8:00 Folkstone - Runaway Girl (6/1) - 1pt e.w

Further bets to follow.


2:10 Bath - Idyllic star (4/1) - 3pt win

Lucky Last Lingers

Primo Lady (16/1) - 1pt e/w - Big run expected

Selections

3:30 Catterick - Almond Branches (11/8) - 3pt win
3:40 Lingfield - Chella Thriller (20/1) -1pt e/w (Info -get on the 20/1 still available with Bet 365 asap)
7:30 Sandown - Dutch Supreme (4/1) - 3pt win
8:05 Sandown - Dynamic Duo (18/1) - 1pt e/w

2 Early Selections

4:10 Lingfield - Ukrainian (10/1) - 1pt e/w
4:40 Lingfield - Blueberry Fizz (2/1) - 3pt win

More selections to follow later today.

Max Bet Double

3:05 Tipperary - Purple (5/4)

4:05 Tipperary - The Ferryman (5/6)

6pt win

Tomorrows Selections

Won't be around until the evening tomorrow so I'm posting the majority of my selections now.

2:35 Tipperary - Parliamentary Square (11/4) - 3pt win = 1st 

2:40 Southwell - Baily Storm (3/1) - 3pt win =Fell

3:20 Yarmouth - Consider Yourself (2/1) - 3pt win

1pt Treble

5:20 Yarmouth - Silver Linnet (6/1) - 1pt e/w

2:10 Southwell - Douglas (3/1) - 3pt win (info) = 2nd

Hill's Runners

You don't need me to tell you that One More Word should be winning the Ayr Maiden today, the horse has previously bumped into two nice types and the yard fully expect to win the prize and the yearling bonus for the owners. Despite that I can't be backing the horse at such a short price as there could be something lurking in the wings to spoil the party although it is very unlikely.


The more interesting runner from a value perspective is Red Sensor in the 8:10 at Windsor, the horse steps up in trip again today and the forecast good ground is thought to be the key for him. The general consensus is that he has further room for improvement over today's trip and rates as a solid e/w bet. Matthew Chadwick takes the ride today who was a top apprentice in Hong Kong a few seasons ago and will be riding for the yard over the next month. He is very talented but Windsor is a specialist track and it will be interesting to see how he gets on. Unfortunately the withdrawal of Furbelow has had an affect on the price of this runner but at 13/2 with most firms there is still a bit of value in a 3 place field and I have had a 1pt e/w bet

Total Stake for the day now stands at 16pts

Today's Selections

2:50 Cartmel - Mwaleshi (4/1) - 3pt win

3:05 Ayr - Cheeky Wee Red (4/1) - 3pt win

4:30 Cartmel - Iona Days (11/4) - 3pt win

7:10 Windsor - Zanotti (14/1) - 1pt e/w

8:30 Beverly - Solar View (6/4) - 3pt win

Total Stake = 14pts

3:25 Ascot

Interesting messages received for Sans Loi in this race who is expected to bounce back to form after working well at home in cheekpieces. The horse is currently available at a best price of 16/1 and I have had 1pt ew

Info

2:45 Curragh - Grafelli (11/4) - 3pt win

Today's Selections

1:40 Curragh - Hall of Mirrors (14/1) - 1pt e/w - I have a feeling that this horse may prove to be the trainers first string despite jockey arrangements and if that is the case then he should at least snatch a place.

2:15 Ascot - Shaishee (3/1) - 3pt win - Thought to be potentially very smart and is fit enough to do himself justice first time out. It is a good looking race though and with a few other fancied runners going to post the yard would realistically be happy with a place but with e/w value no longer available the only option for P/L purposes are win bets all the way.


2:25 Newton Abbot - Kings Wharf (1/1) - 6pt Max Bet - Won with ease last time out and fully expect him to oblige again today. NAP

2:35 Tipperary - False Economy (7/4) - 3pt win - A course winner who has been running constantly against good opposition and has the assistance of Ruby today, should go very close. - NB

2:50 Ascot - Ocean Way (25/1) - 1pt e/w - There is no doubt that this horse is starting to look well handicapped again and at some point in the next few weeks, she will a race. Whether it will be today, only time will time, but she likes small fields, good ground and a steady pace and she should get that today. ONly niggling doubt is whether she actually wants 1m 4f,


4:00 Ascot - Cool Macavity (12/1) - 1pt e/w - Thought to have a solid e/w chance and thats good enough for me.

2:45 Ascot (info)

My Queenie (8/1) - 1pt ew - not a source I have used before but I'm informed that he is well connected. This horse is expected to run a big race on a return from a break and should challenge the fancied mount of Ryan Moore.

Today's Selections

1:35 Ascot - White Frost (8/1) - 1pt e/w (info - fancied to land e/w support in a wide open race)


2:35 Newmarket - Steps (3/1) - 3pt win - Varian reaches for the hood and having turned the horse out again quickly he will be a real danger today.


4:20 Ripon - Assizes (6/1) - 3pt win - Been waiting for a long time for this horse to step up in trip and today he gets ideal conditions. He is actually a nice e/w price but I'm confident and I'm going for the win.


4:35 Ascot - Sea Moon (4/1) - 6pt win (Max Bet) - Truth be told, the horse I really like in this race is the Japanese raider but the ground concerns me too much to back him. Nathaniel was obviously primed for his last run and will have been 100% ready to rumble, he is a very smart individual but his wellbeing after that last race concerns me and at 11/4 with some firms I'm willing to take him on. My Selection is a popular one amongst most punters and although he is yet to win a Group 1 race, the general feeling is that he has been slow paid by Stoute with this race in mind and given his excellent record in this event, who am I to argue with that assumption. If that is the case then this horse will be very difficult to beat and could top off a great day for Ryan Moore.


8:00 Haydock - Steeler (15/8) - 3pt win - The Hill's yard quite fancied their runner in this yearling bonus maiden but market vibes have been very positive for the Johnson newcomer who is very well bred. He targets these races to good affect (won one last week) and I expect this horse to do the same.


9:00 Haydock - Chester Aristocrat (6/1) - 1pt e/w - Backed this horse last weekend after he was heavily backed and he had a nightmare run before being pulled up when his chance had gone. Turns out again today and I once again expect a gamble to come, lets just hope he gets a good run this time.


That's it for today but I do have an info horse lined up for later so watch this space.

5:05 Ascot (Longshot info)

HEFNER (7/1) - 1pt e/w - usual source where this particular connections is concerned and this horse is expected to give the fav a real run for its money

4:50 Haydock

reluctant to back another horse today as at the moment I'm sitting in guaranteed profit but a horse in this race has caught my eye. The horse in question is the High Chaparrel gelding PISTOL, who steps up in trip for the first time today and also has the aid of a first time visor. This horse has gone off towards the head of the market in each of his 4 starts to date but has spoilt his chance by hanging or being unruly. He wasn't a cheap purchase and has a solid staying pedigree and if the visor does the trick today then he has every chance of beating what is a pretty average field. Obviously not a horse to get too carried away with and it may be worth waiting to back him in running or just before the off after seeing how he breaks/carries himself in the paddock. Unfortunately I don't have the benefit of that luxury as I want to include him in the P/L so I will be having a 3pt win bet at 5/1.

3:40 Haydock Info

Cruisetothelimit (3/1) - 3pt win - Turned out again quickly to recover connections losses after being turned over LTO. Claimer on board and expected to be very difficult to beat.

Today's Selections

2:10 Ascot - Pearl Bell (13/8) - 6pt win (Max Bet)
2:45 Ascot - Havana Gold (11/8) - 6pt win (Max Bet) + 2pt win double
6:25 Pontefract - Secret Symphony (11/4) - 3pt win
7:15 Newmarket - Elnawin (3/1) - 3pt win

3:20 Curragh (22nd July) - Great Heavens (2/1) - 3pt win - Price will be much shorter on the day and can't see anything getting close to this horse.


I will not be backing either of the 2 runners from the Hill's yard today despite both being strongly fancied to land e/w support. I overlooked Shropshire in the 3:55 as I have also received info from another source for Seeking Magic.  I rarely, if ever back in apprentice races so Sir Fredalot is a no bet as well and in any event  I expect Jungle Beat to run a big race dropping back in trip. I'm waiting on a call from a close friend who has a horse running today (hooked me up with Epsom last night) and if the word is positive I will relay the info to  readers.

Info

6:10 Epsom - Epsom Salts (12/1) -1pt e/w - trainer has apparently had this race in mind for the horse as it makes a return to its syndicates chosen track. Top apprentice takes the ride and this one is expected to land e/w support and a plunge is expected.

Today's Selections

3:15 Brighton - Dream Cast (10/3) - 3pt win (NB)
6:00 Bath - Signifier (6/1) - 3pt win (NAP)
6:45 Leopardstown - Reglisse (14/1) - 1pt e/w

No further selections for today.

6:30 Sandown

Khubala (7/4) - 3pt win

5:55 Sandown

Red Explorer (2/1) - 6pt win - Very strongly fancied here despite the conditions

5:00 Lingfield

Chalk & Cheese (33/1) - 1pt e/w - Improvement is apparently expected today as the horse returns to the AW for only the second time in its short career. The booking of Carson clearly catches the eye considering the amazing strike rate he has for the yard and the drop back in trip together with the prospect of a strong early pace should see this horse well and truly in the mix at the finish.

Today's Selections

2:30 Lingfield - Niger (11/8) - 3pt win
3:20 Uttoxeter - Whispering Jack (8/1) - 1pt ew
4:00 Lingfield - Silent Moment (5/4) - 3pt win

Evening selections to follow later today.

Today's Selections

2:45 Ffos Las - Astra Hall (4/6) - 3pt win (1st)

4:00 Beverly - Mojolika (4/1) - 3pt win (2nd)

4:15 Ffos Las - Bilidn (2/1) - 3pt win (2nd)

6:20 Yarmouth - Blades Rose (7/4) - 3pt win (2nd)

9:00 Southwell - Kung Hei Phat Choi (11/10) - 3pt win (1st)


Update - 3:30 Beverly - Fame Again (6/1) - 3pt win - UP
             - 8:50 Yarmouth - Rishikesh (5/2) - 3pt win - UP






All bets are placed BOG

One to add

4:55 Dundalk - Great Ruler (4/1) - 3pt win - All the making of a handicap plot and I'm surprised this one is such a big price.

Today's Selections

Win Bets

2:05 Ayr - Majestic Moon (3/1) - 3pt win

5:15 Southwell - Omid (13/8) - 3pt win

7:10 Windsor - Dust Whirl (6/4) - 3pt win

8:20 Killarney - Beach of Falesa (5/4)- 3pt win

8:30 Wolverhampton - Edraaq (2/1) - 3pt win

8:40 Windsor - Minoan Dancer (2/1) - 3pt win

8:50 Killarney - Klepht (3/1) - 3pt win (INFO)

E/W Selections

2:35 Ayr - Hills of Dakota (11/2) - 1pt e/w

6:20 Killarney - Eagles Pass (5/1) - 1pt e/w

7:00 Wolverhampton - Medam (12/1) - 1pt e/w

8:10 Windsor - Bunraku (5/1) - 1pt e/w (info)

0.50pt e/w Double 

7:10 Windsor - Lucky Beggar (2/1) 

8:10 Windsor - Bunraku (5/1)

2:10 Southwell

Tregaro (10/1) -1pt e/w - Received a spot of info for this horse about an hour ago and having looked at the horse's form, I think it looks to have an e/w shout in what looks like a very weak race especially if the reports about the reason for the horses break from the track are correct.

Sunday Supplement

Today' Selections

NAP - 4:10 Southwell - Billy Blade (9/4) - 3pt win
NB - 2:20 Stratford - Traditional Bob (11/8) - 3pt win
3:20 Stratford - Dubawi Phantom (7/2) - 3pt win
3:40 Southwell - Shalloon (6/1) - 1pt e/w
5:20 Stratford - Bobowen (5/2) - 3pt win

Bank to be updated at the end of play today.

7:15 Hamilton

Damika (18/1) - 1pt e/w - Like the look of this horse and has what it takes to set a good early pace and draw away in the testing conditions.

Last 2 of the day

Arnold Lane (2/1) - 3pt win
Royal Rascal (5/2) - 3pt win

1pt Double

4:10 York

Salutation (16/1) - 1pt ew - Only horse in the race not eligible for a yearling bonus makes it worth an e/w bet as its debut run was not without promise.

2:40 Newmarket

Captain Bertie (10/1) - 2.5pts ew - INFO - should land ew support despite the terrible ground

Today's Selections

Starting Bank - 527.50

1:55 York - Toto Skyllachy (6/1) - 1pt e/w

2:10 Newmarket - Olympic Glory (6/4) - 3pt win

2:15 Chester - Boom or Bloom (1/1) - 3pt win

3:00 York - Area Fifty One (7/1) - 1pt ew

3:10 Newbury - Maarek (5/2) - 3pt win

3:35 York - Caledonia Lady (6/1) - 1pt e/w

Early Selection

3:20 Newmarket - Sepoy (10/1) -2.5pts e.w - Price expected to plummet on this one and as a soft ground performer with serious form in Australia he is expected to be a major player in a race sponsored by Darley.

Bank etc to be updated prior to the rest of tomorrows selections and will also have a level stakes P/L total for the first week of this cycle.

4:10 Newmarket

Moshaagib (18/1) - 1pt ew - info

Update

Sorry to anyone who followed my  picks today, truly awful but at least I'm not the only one who has found it difficult and the decision to lower my stakes was a very good idea. I still have two bets in play and there may  be something that catches my eye this evening but for the time being it looks as if today is going to be a washout. Luckily my bets in the previous last 6 days have been rock solid and both the Advised Stakes P/L and Level Stakes P/L will be in profit for the week.

Today's Selections

As punters we are spoiled for choice today but once again the weather is making things difficult and I'm reluctant to increase my stakes even though there are a few horses which I really fancy today.

Day 7 - Starting Bank = 564.50

Newmarket Selections

1:20 Newmarket - Cardigan (15/2) - 1pt e/w - Very highly tried on its reappearance and I have heard some very positive reports about this horse over the last few weeks. I have to admit that the horse that I really fancied was Tartiflette but having missed last nights price of 10/1 she no longer represents value at 13/2.


1:50 Newmarket - Sholaan (13/2) - 2pt win - First thing to note about this race is that the Hill's horse Glen Moss is expected to land e/w bets but the camp are of the opinion that even with the pull in the weights Sholaan will be very difficult to beat and for that reason I am sticking with the favourite. The second thing to note is that the Clive Cox colt Accession is sporting Blinkers for the first time and is expected to run a big race. It was a very close call between these three horses and I wouldn't be surprised if any of them took the prize but my slight preference is for Sholaan who still has further room for improvement. Sholaan is now a non runner so I will be having a 1pt e/w bet on Glen Moss at 15/2. 


2:25 Newmarket - City Image (9/2) - 2pt win - Very reluctant to oppose the Irish raider who I really fancied before her withdrawal at Ascot but City Image's win was impressive last time out and its always dangerous to discount a Hannon horse in this race, especially when you know that she will handle the ground.

3:00 Newmarket - Golden Lilac (evens) - 10pt win - Don't need to say much about this horse really, everyone knows, she is by far the best horse in the race and bar any mishaps she should really be winning this race with a bit in hand. NAP

3:35 Newmarket - Improvisation (10/1) - 1pt e/w - Once again the Hill's camp are hopeful that their runner may well run into a place but the general feeling is that he will come on significantly for the run. My selection may appear to be the stables second string but he has a nice pedigree and unlike Requested, Improvisation is eligible to win the bonus attached to this race.


4:10 Newmarket -Stencive (4/1) - 2pt win - I have to admit that today's going has to be against my selection but it looks like a weak maiden and although I fear the Stoute newcomer who is very well bred, I just think that Stencive's experience should put him in a very good position to win this race under the excellent Murtagh. Stencive now a NR so wont be having a bet in this race now. 



Newbury Selections
2:15 Newbury - Ayaar (4/1) - 2pt win - The Hill's yard fancy their runner today in this one and by the looks of things the Hannon yard really fancy their horse as well but for me Ayaar is the pick of the horses in the field and with his trainer in good form I believe he can grab the win and land the 10K bonus for connections.

3:25 Newbury - Rhamnus (5/4) - 8pt win - For me this is the horse Hughes heads to the meeting to ride and when you consider that the yard have won 4 of the previous 9 renewals of the race, then this one has to have a rock solid chance, especially as he handles soft ground. NB


York Selection

2:35 York - Sentaril (11/8) - 6pt win - This is the stand out horse in the race and I have been very impressed with her runs to date. The fact that Harrison rides does concern me slightly as he has no experience on the horse but hopefully the horses raw talent and speed should be sufficient to get the job done.

Info 

9:10 Chester - Tenhoo (9/2) - 4pt win
 

Info

7:55 Leopardstown - Shelford (4/1) - 5pt win

2 more selections for today

4:20 Doncaster - Ultimate Destiny (5/2) - 6pt win
8:15 Folkstone - Curley Come Home (10/3) - 3pt win

Today's Selections

Starting Bank = 532.15

1:20 Newmarket - Shantaram (2/1) - 3pt win - 1pt RF with Rewarded

2:20 Dundalk - Exhortation (3/1) - 3pt wn

2:25 Newmarket - Nabucco (10/3) - 3pt win

3:00 Newmarket - Fiorente (12/1) - 1pt e/w

3:35 Newmarket - Pearl Sea (15/2) - 1pt e/w & Anna Law (33/1) - 0.50pts e/w

4:05 Newmarket - Sovereign Debt (2/1) - 5pt win

One for this evening.

7:40 Worcester - Pearls Legend (5/2) - 8pt win

4:10 Yarmouth

Born to Surprise (3/1) - 5pt win -  I was told to watch the ground very closely before backing this horse and the times at the course over the shorter distances haven't been too bad so I'm hoping the horse will handle it and win the race. He is definitely the class act but soft going can be a leveller in these types of events.

Missed Alerts

Today has been a day of missed opportunities and it will teach me to ignore my alerts!

Kempton Info

8:20 Kempton - Lastofthemohicans (20/1) - 1pt e/w- not used this source before so proceed with extreme caution but the horse is apparently thought to benefit significantly from the addition of the tongue tie and the return to an artificial surface. Hughes takes the mount and the horse is apparently ready to rumble first time out on it's return from over 200 days off the track. Only time will tell if this assessment is accurate and until I've sounded this guy out, stakes will remain very low.

Today's Selections

Starting Bank = 540.15pts

Today's selections will once again be at small stakes due to the conditions and I have split my bets into two categories. The first category will feature my NAP, NB etc while the second category will feature a few potential handicap plot runners.


Category One Selections

5:20 Catterick - Roc De Prince (4/6) - 8pt win - NR

5:30 Lingfield - Ginger Monkey (11/4) - 6pt win - NB

9:20 Kempton - Lightning Strike (6/1) - 2pts e/w - IWAC

6:20 Kempton - Hawk Moth (8/1) - 1pt e/w - Outsider of the Day

3:00 Lingfield - Goodwood Starlight (12/1) - 1pt e/w (info)

Category Two Selections

2:00 Lingfield - Goodie Goodie (9/1) -1pt e/w

3:30 Lingfield - Panettone (8/1) - 1pt e/w

4:20 Catterick - Gibraltar Road (9/1) - NR


Daily Double - 2pts

4:15 Wexford - Gagewell Flyer (2/1)

7:40 Worcester - Pearls Legend (5/2)


Maiden Selection Of The Day


6:50 Kempton - This Is Nice (9/1) -1.5pts e/w

7:25 Roscommon

TOP CAT HENRY (6/1) - 2pts e/w - Happy to take on the favourite in the current conditions and I just have a feeling that Top Cat may prove to be the value bet in the race. I will be very disappointed if he doesn't at least place tonight as I'm putting my 100% place/win record on the line for today.

7:35 Wolverhampton

Tony Hollis (12/1) - 1pt ew - always reluctant to back a long standing maiden but I have received a positive word for this one tonight and it has run to a reasonable level at the track so a win is not beyond the realms of possibility

Today's Selections

Weather causing havoc again today and for that reason I'm sticking to the AW and once again will be playing for small change.

3:15 Wolves - Vegegazzu (5/2) - 8pt win NAP

7:15 Southwell - Daddy Warbucks (3/1) - 6pt win NB

8:05 Southwell - Tahnee Mara (14/1) - 1pts ew

8:35 Southwell - Beachwood Bay (5/1) - 2pts ew

Bank will be updated at the end of the day and after yesterday's results it should be looking pretty healthy.

A few people will be surprised to see that I haven't backed Mrs Warren today and the reason for that is that I'm very weary of the early support for the Nicholls and Moore horses. My man in the yard backed Warren to win last night and also had a small ew bet on pieces of cake but even he was concerned by the money for the opposition and I'm going to keep my powder dry as this one is concerned and back it in a bonus later this month.

9:00 Roscommon

Call Me Bubbles (9/2) - 2pt win

7:50 Ripon

Satanic Beat (9/2) - 2pt win

Interesting just received a call for Treasured Dream in the 7:40 from a man who is usually spot on with his picks from this yard but I said earlier that I don't like the look of the race so I will be giving it a miss even for e/w purposes.

4:30 Ayr

Critical Point (2/1) - 5pt win - should see plenty of improvement due to the step up in trip and the soft ground conditions. Whenever Prescott sends one lone runner to Ayr they have to be respected and this one should be difficult to beat today.

1pt ew CSF with Luctor Emergo

Today's Selections

Once again conditions are terrible today and realistically it's going to be difficult to find solid bets. With that in mind I will once again be lowering my stakes and airing on the side of caution.

Starting Bank = 508.50

3:30 Ayr - Chookie Royal (3/1) - 3pt win

5:00 Ayr - Regal Acclaim (9/4) - 6pt win

6:00 Roscommon - Count of Limonade (11/8) - 6pt win

6:50 Ripon - Throwing Roses (6/1) - 1.5pts ew

8:50 Ripon - The Tiger (18/1) - 0.5pt ew

The hills newcomer is an interesting type but is expected to need the run tonight. If she had been available at around 8/1 then I would have chanced an ew bet but at the current price I won't be backing her or anything else in the race.


As well as running an advised stakes P/L during this third cycle I will also be completing a conventional level stakes P/L based on a staking plan of 3pt win or 1pt ew. This P/L will be tallied up at the end of each week and the results will be posted under a separate section.

Small Stakes

I don't really like the look of today's racing so only having four bets and I have reduced my stake significantly.

Starting Bank (Day 2) = 489.50

2:45 Market Rasen - Trop Fort (9/4) - 4pt win
2:50 Limerick - Satu (5/1) - 1.5pt e/w
3:30 Ayr - Prophesy (7/2) - 2pt win
4:00 Ayr - Oil Magnate (2/1) - 6pt win

Final Score

Anti post selection wins yesterday as expected resulting in a final profit total for the first 2 cycles of 182.88pt.

The first day of the 3rd Cycle (which will end 5 weeks today) resulted in a small loss but its nothing to get too concerned about at this early stage.

Starting Bank = 500pts
Totals Bets Placed = 46.50pts
Total Return = 36pts
Starting Bank for Day 2 = 489.50

Final Bet of the Day (info)

5:40 Haydock - Tioman Pearl (3/1) - 12.50pt win - Apparently this one is capable of further improvement despite the significant rise in the weights and the conditions should just about be ok. 3/1 looks massively overpriced and the advice I received was to max bet this one but I'm reluctant to do that in the conditions so just have a mid-stake bet

Today's Selections (P/L 3)

After a difficult second P/L cycle I just managed to hit profit as I cleared 36.90pts which when added to the first P/L cycle results in a profit of 135pts. I also have my anti-post bet for today still in play which could enhance my profit margin further.

Once again the bank will revert to 500 points and we start the task of hitting another profit all over again.

Starting Bank = 500 points.

3:10 Sandown - Starscope (10/11) - 20pt win
3:45 Sandown - Nathaniel (7/2) - 8pt win
4:55 Sandown - Fortieth and Fifth (5/1) - 3pts e/w

7:55 Bellewstone

Cool Metallic (11/8) - 20 point win - final bet of a very good day.

Final score

A day of mixed fortunes as I was a matter of lengths away from landing a 5 timer as I posted 3 winners and 2 seconds. Very annoyed by my decision not to back Bunraku and even more annoyed that I didn't place a reverse forecast but hindsight is a beautiful thing and my disappointment was quickly as my big ew play in the maiden at Sandown came out on top an epic price of 12/1.

As far as the rest of the day is concerned, it's been spoilt by the weather and I'm gutted that my info NAP of the day won't be running at Haydock later. I have just received a word for a horse in the opening race at bellewstown tonight and it is apparently thought to be max bet material. I'm not that familiar with the track or the horse in question so I'm going to air on the side of caution and go for just a midstake bet in an attempt to really finish this second P/L cycle on a high.

5:20 Bellewstown - Desert of Dreams (11/4) - 16pt win

3:00

Catwalk (5/2) - 12pt win - opposing the info I received for the Hills horse as I think this daughter of pivotal will handle the ground an the course to better affect. Bunaku and Shore Performer rate the best of the rest.

Update

2:00 Moodhill (2/1) - 10pt win (info)
3:35 Green Howard (9/4) - 10pt win

3:25 Sandown

Hot Diggity (14/1) - 5pts ew - I wouldn't usually bet to this kind of stake in a maiden but I really fancy this horse and I would be amazed if it didn't at least place

Edit 3:20 - 1pt ew RF with Royal Skies

Info

8:15 Haydock - Miss You Too (6/4) - 20pt win

One Selection

More to follow later and a potential info horse. Bank will also be updated at the end of today's betting.

2:30 Doncaster - Kay Gee Bee (9/4) - 20pt win.

6:50 Newbury

Dali's Lover (10/1) - 2.5pts ew - looks like a decent maiden but this potentially smart debutant from the Hills yard is thought to hold a strong ew claim.

2:10 Yarmouth

Ajmany (2.00 betfair) - 25pt win


Bet subject to commission

Anti post selection

07/07 - Haydock 2:55 - GREAT HEAVENS (5/1) - 10pt win

Early Selections

Starting bank for tomorrow = 434.64 pts

6:05 Epsom - Shesha Bear (2/1) - 10pt win - Substantial early money expected, conditions to suit, workable mark and should get the job done in a race lacking strength and depth.

6:35 Epsom - Well Acquainted (9/2) - 3pts ew - Hannon horse is too short for me especially as he is not eligible for the yearling bonus scheme and well acquainted looks like a good ew alternative

7:00 Leopardstown - Reglisse (3/1) - 15pt win - I don't usually invest significant sums in maidens in Ireland but I have it on very good authority that the owner of this horse is expecting to claim a tasty bonus under the yearling scheme by winning tomorrows race. The form of its debut looks solid with the 1st and 2nd horse home holding Group 1 entries and the normal level of improvement should see this horse win going away.

7:45 Epsom - Henry Allingham (7/2) - 8pt win - Had a nice winner last week with a handicap debutant from this yard and I believe that Henry has the potential to bring home the spoils once again.

9:05 Newbury - Biographer (5/2) - 6pt win - this horse is very highly thought of and will hopefully continue its improvement today.

Update on the Hill's runners will be posted around lunch time tomorrow.

Lucky Last Kempton

Hefner (18/1) - 1.5pts ew

The return of the Longshot who supplied some big priced Dobb's runners in the past. He just missed out with Foxy but hopes to recoup losses with at least a place on his last mount of the day.

7:25 Kempton

I've been out for a while so haven't been able to get online. I've backed the Hannon runner (WOODLANDSWAY) at 3/1 who has been the subject of a massive gamble. I appreciate that 3/1 is no longer available so for PL purposes I have placed 10pts at 2/1 bog.

Hills runner is expected to need the run and only one or two in the yard have backed it ew at very small stakes. They do have a very interesting runner lined up for tomorrow though so watch this space.

Early Selections

Three selections detailed below are my own but due to the fact that I believe that their respective prices will shorten significantly for various reasons over the next few hours I have taken the decision to post them up now.  I'm not in the business of hedging my bets bet those readers at are should be able to make profit of all of the selections below irrespective of the outcomes of the individual races.

3:40 Worcester - Nelson Du Ronceray (11/8) - 16pt win

6:00 Chepstow - Actonetaketwo (17.5 Betfair) - 2.5pt win - place yet to be matched (NR)

8:35 Kempton - Roxy Flyer (6/1) - 5pt e/w (big gamble expected on this one)

9:20 Kempton

Amba (10/1) - 1.5 ew - those that know me will know that I hate Barney Curley and I will always take his runners on no matter what the price. The favourite has been well supported all day so I wouldn't be surprised if it wins but I also wouldn't be surprised if it drifts like a barge before the off. With that in mind I have back Amba ew who may be ready to strike after a promising run last time out.

7:40 Stratford

The Fox's Decree (18/1) - 1pt ew - a small bet to keep things bobbing along but I do think that this long standing maiden may well break his 25 running losing streak over hurdles today. Either that or he will tail off last once again.

7:10 Stratford

Life of Luso (8/1) - 2.5pts ew - bit surprised to see this horse is available at prices in excess of 4/1. His recent form has not been great but he has the class to win against todays opposition. The ground may not be ideal especially for a horse that employs a Tongue tie but he stays further than today's trip and he should be pitching at the finish. Peachy Moment and Mon Chevalier the best of the rest.

6:40 Stratford

Dealing River (18/1) - 1.5pt ew. Should be race fit after reappearance and it won't take much to win this race. Overall opinion is that this horse is over priced and rates as a solid ew bet.

6:10 Strafford

Jacob's Son (16/1) - 1pt ew - this has to be considered a speculative bet and I was very close to backing the Vaughan horse again but I just having a feeling this horse will outrun his odds and I believe he is the only horse in the line up who is out of a dam who has produced NH winners

5:45 Brighton

I wasn't going to get involved in this race as I like the look of at least three horses but the money for one particular performer together with a little tip off has led me to place a small win bet on Whitecrest at 10/3. As far as ew alternatives are concerned I believe that both Roodee Queen and the Strig should be involved at the finish.

Whitecrest (10/3) - 3pt win

Today's selections

Very poor racing today and nothing really catching my eye. I will be having a few small bets though.

5:25 Brighton - Know No Fear (9/4) - 8pt win

8:20 Kempton - Amorilist (5/1) - 3pt win

8:50 Kempton - Saytara (15/8) - 16pt win

7:40 Windsor

Dark Don is not a horse which I wouldn't want to get involved with in todays race, he is not one of the stables leading lights and although the general feeling is that he should really be able to win the race today there are a few if's and buts which make him opposable at the current price. Personally I have sided with Generalyze e/w at 17/2 but i see this race as a complete lottery and literally any number of horses could end up taking the prize.

Generalyze (17/2) - 3pts e/w

9:25 Ffos Las

The Jailer (5/2) - 12pt win

Today's Selections

Starting Bank = 446.84

2:15 Wolverhampton - Yes Its The Boy (7/1) - 4pts e/w - BPB (Best Place Bet)
This horse interests me for a number of reasons not least because Callan heads to the meeting just to ride him. He has a very strong US dirt pedigree and I am surprised that tomorrow will be just his second run on an AW surface. Although he hasn't be pulling up any trees on the turf, his last performance was promising and with the help of first time blinkers and an inside draw I believe he may break his duck tomorrow.

4:15 Wolverhampton -  Angel Cakes (6/1) - 3pt win - SP (Speculative Punt)
Now its not very often that I would ever advise backing a horse which is 20+ race maiden but this looks like a truly terrible race and if this horse can't win this with the benefit of course experience then he is probably a lost cause. If anyone can get him him to win it will be De Sousa but I'm hopeful rather than confident.

4:30 Ponte - Wahylah (6/1) - 5pts e/w - NB
Obviously the horse to beat in this race is going to be I'm So Glad who is in cracking form and has the profile of an extremely progressive filly but I think a strongly run race over the 6f course at Ponte may just stretch her stamina and if that is the case then my selection may well be the horse to pick up the pieces.

6:55 Ffos Las - Masai King (5/1) - 7.5pts e/w - NAP 
Having tipped this one up as my Nap I will probably get a call in the morning telling me that Mrs Warren is well fancied but either way I am very confident about my selection getting the job done and if it was for the presence of the Hill's runner I would be max betting this one. Masai King made his racing debut in a Class 3 event at York and finished 4th after racing very green in the early stages. Towards the end of the race the horse really looked to get the hang of things and his action suggested that he would be suited by a track like Ffos Las. He is a half brother to Chanderly who was a Group 2 winner as a 2yo and the fact that he still holds an entry in the Totepool 2yo Trophy would suggest that he has been showing something at home. I really don't think this race will take much winning and although the soft ground probably isn't ideal I still think that a place is the worst possible result and in my opinion he really should be winning the race if he has come on from that York run.

5:55 Curragh

Little bet in this race to end the day.

Sir Ector (12/1) - 3pts e/w

4:50 Salisbury

Sir Quintin (2/1) - 7.5pt win. I know Fallons mount has been heavily backed but it's dam has never produced a winner outside of handicap company and at the current price I'm willing to take it on.

Ryan Moore Double

2:15 Windsor - Keene Dancer (11/4)
2:50 Windsor - Columella (7/4)

5pt Double

Chantilly

2:40 Chantilly - French Fifteen (15/8) - 25pt win - Very confident about this one doing the business today.

Tomorrow's Selections

A few early selections for tomorrow.

Starting Bank = 436.94

NAP = 2:10 Curragh - The United States (6/4) - 20pt win

NB = 2:05 Salisbury - One More Word (7/4) - 16pt win - Only reason this is not a max bet is because of the early money for Here Comes When.

BPB = 2:45 Windsor - Razor Bill (4/1) - 3pt win & 12pt place at 6/5

OC = 3:15 Windsor - Jungle Beat (15/2) - 3pts e/w


BPB = Best Place Bet

OC = Outside Chance






Results


The United States = 1st
One More Word = Withdrawn
Razor Bill = 2nd 
Jungle Beat = 3rd