Newbury Selections

12:30 - Vasco D'ycy (7/1) - 1pt e/w - With the benefit of race fitness and hurdling experience I would think this horse can give the favourite a run for his money. The cash for the Tizzard horse is interesting given the horses profile and purchase price but I have a feeling he may be one for another day. 

1:00 - Glorious Twelfth (13/8) - 3pt win - Plenty of potential winners in this line up but Geraghty's mount clear stands out as a potentially smart individual. Anyone who reads the stable reports will know that this mare is highly thought of and her performances last season on graded tracks sets her apart from her opposition today. She has apparently schooled very well and if ready to go first time out, she should win. 

1:30 - Captain Paulie (14/1) - 1pt e/w - Very difficult race to call given the size of the field and the range of horse profiles but I quietly fancy this individual. CP recently moved the the Williams yard and put in a good performance last time out. He seems to have thrived in big fields in the past and although the ground may be on the soft side for him, he is clearly weighted to win a race on his past form and that makes him very dangerous given the yard which he's joined. 

2:05 - Court In Motion (5/1) - 1pt e/w - There is no doubt that this horse is now starting to taste my patience and although Dynaste is obviously the horse to beat, I'm hoping Court in Motion can improve from his run a few weeks ago and confirm the promise he has been showing at home. He meets a few of the key trends for the race and with Geraghty in the saddle you know you will get a run for your money. 

2:40 - Ballybough Pat (4/1) - 3pt win - Given the size of the field this horse is definitely short enough in the market and I was tempted to side with Lundy Sky who looked like a solid e/w bet. But in the end BP was the obvious choice. His previous form is solid and his trainer has a solid track record with these types and clearly thinks he is capable of putting in a solid performance against more experienced opposition. 

3:15 - The Knoxs (3/1) -3pt win - Nicholls is the master of weight manipulation and the inclusion of Tantaniano in this race means that my selections gets to carry a very attractive weight. Although his win last time out wasn't faultless, I would expect him to improve and he should be capable of defying a 5lb rise.  Ruby takes the ride, conditions should suit and he will be difficult to beat. 

3:45 - Puffin Billy (11/8) - 3pt win - Any horse than can win a bumper under a penalty has to be given considerable respect and the way PB went about his work in his two NHF wins was very, very impressive. If his trainer has taught him how to jump a hurdle then this horse could be absolutely anything and he should be winning a race like this and moving on to bigger and better things. 

Kempton Selections

5:05 - Shamiana (11/8) - 3pt win

7:05 - Taffe (28/1) - 1pt ew (info)

Today's Jump Selections

1:05 Taunton - Cool George (6/1) - 1pt e/w

2:05 Newbury - Houblon Des Obeaux (6/4) - 3pt win

3:15 Newbury - Vendor (7/2) - 3pt win

3:35 Uttoxeter - Spitfire Ace (5/2)  -3pt win

3:55 Taunton - For The Staff (7/4) - 3pt win

Kempton Selections

5:30 - Rivellino (9/4) - 3pt win (1st)
7:00 - Iver Bridge Lad (6/1) - 3pt win (Info) (2nd - SP 5/2)

1pt Double

4:20 Wolves

Jack Whos He (4/1) - 3pt win

0.50pt Reverse Forecast - Dubawi Island (total stake 1pt)

3:30 Wolves & 3:25 Limerick

3:30 Wolves - York Glory (11/8) - 3pt win (1st)

0.50pt Reverse Forecast with Alaskan Bullet (3rd) (Total Stake = 1pt)



3:25 Limerick - The Bishops Niece (22/1) - 1pt e/w (3rd)


No more selections now until Kempton this evening.

2:35 Lingfield

Unfortunately I've been a bit short of time today so I will be posting up my selections under individual headings rather than all in one post. I will try to get each one up at least 20 minutes before race time and I also have a bit of info for kempton so watch this space.

Come On Blue Chip (7/2) - 3pt win (UP)

Today's Selections

Unfortunately the weather has once again taken it's toll on today's racing and unfortunately with the ground described as extremely heavy at Lingfield I won't be having a financial interest in any of the races today. To keep things interesting though I will be providing my readers with a theoretical selection in each race and will also be detailing a few stats which will hopefully help those brave people who are betting today to find a couple of winners.

MUD LOVING SIRES
As most of you know I love the breeding aspect of horse racing and the ability to handle soft/heavy conditions is definitely an attribute which is capable of being passed on from a horses sire. With that in mind it's always good to look at those Sires who have a solid record of producing mud loving progeny and there are a few on show at Lingers today. To qualify a sire must have had at least 50 NH runners on ground described as heavy in the last 2 years and and must have achieved a minimum win rate of 10%.

Kayf Tara - 14% Strike rate on heavy ground in NH races in the last 2 years (97 runs, 14 wins, 35 place)

Beneficial - 11% Strike rate on heavy ground in NH races in the last 2 years (392 runs, 45 wins,109 place)

Montjeu - 13% Strike rate on heavy ground in NH races in the last 2 years (72 runs, 9 wins, 17 place)

Kings Theatre -15% strike rate on heavy ground in NH races in the last 2 years(185 runs,28 win,65 place)

Lord Americo - 13% Strike rate on heavy ground in NH races in the last 2 years (56 runs, 7 wins,21 place)

Karinga Bay -10% Strike rate on heavy ground in NH races in the last 2 years (77 runs, 8 wins, 16 places)

Alderbrook - 14% Strike rate on heavy ground in NH races in the last 2 years (94 runs, 13 wins,29 places)

Old Vic - 11% Strike rate on heavy ground in NH races in the last 2 years (212 runs, 23 wins, 59 places)

Cloudings - 11% Strike rate on heavy ground in NH races in the last 2 years (53 runs, 6 wins, 13 places)


BEEN THERE DONE THAT
Although a runners sire may given you an indication of whether the horse will be able to handle the mud, there is no substitute for experience and therefore it's of paramount importance that punters look to zone in on any horse who is proven in the conditions. Another key aspect to remember, is that soft ground is very different from heavy ground and therefore one shouldn't automatically assume that a soft ground performer will handle heavy going.  With that in mind we are looking only for horses who have won or placed on ground described as heavy and I have detailed a few of them below.

Hidden Identity (Beneficial)
Lady Willa (Footstepsinthesand)
Rosoff (New Frontier)
Aikideau (La Balafre)
Dormouse (Medicean)
Pete the Feat (Kings Theatre)
Pensnett Bay (Karinga Bay)


WATCH THEM RUN INTO THE DISTANCE
It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that testing conditions lead to a test of stamina and therefore a horses ability to stay the trip and stay it well, is a valuable commodity. Personally I would be very weary of any horse which is stepping up in trip for the first time today or has failed to at least place in a previous race over today's distance. The next thing to avoid are horses  wearing tongue ties as breathing issues can be exasperated by testing conditions and therefore horses with breathing aids may tire quickly.

In summary, its always difficult to find winners when the conditions deteriorate but punters can use all the tools at their disposal to try and find something to place their money on. My advice would be to look for horses who have proved themselves in the mud, stay the trip and don't have a breathing aid. I would also avoid horses who have run in the last 15 days, together with those who are not proven when carrying weight.


MY THEORETICAL SELECTIONS

Hidden Identity (1/2) 
Queen of the West (16/1) 
De La Bech (5/1) 
Cantlow (2/1) 
Dormouse (3/1) 
Pesnett Bay (10/3) 
Micah (20/1) 

For those readers placing a bet today, I wish you the best of luck because my god are you going to need it. My advice, keep your money in your pocket and wait for another day!

Today's Selections

With the weather taking it's toll on the racing calendar today is probably a day to keep your money in your pocket but a few horses have caught my eye, so we will just have to keep our fingers crossed that the rain stays away this afternoon.

12:30 Kempton - Den of Inquity (22/1) - 1pt e/w - My most speculative selection today given the trainers terrible Nation Hunt record but unlike most of his opposition you know that this horse will relish the difficult conditions today and despite being 11 years old, I believe he is more than capable of winning over hurdles off his current mark, especially given the frailties of his opposition today.

1:10 Ludlow - Dare Me (2/1) - 3pt win - I've heard some very positive reports about this horse and it's schooling and he is apparently well fancied to make a winning chase debut. There is no doubt that on his previous hurdling form, he is the most likely winner and with the yard in fine form and given the trainers solid record at the track, this has all the makings of a solid win bet.

1:30 Kempton - Spirit River (9/4) - 3pt win - Like Mr Henderson I always thought this horse would develop into a high class chaser but following a few falls early in the season last year the horse seemed to lose all of his confidence and it was down hill from there. Over the summer Spirit has had extensive surgery to rectify substantial problems with his breathing and I'm hoping that will have a positive effect on his performance today. As a 7 year old he still has time to improve and with an OR of 145 over hurdles, he has to be respected in today's company. This looks like the perfect platform for the horse to kick start his chasing career and if he fails to win today, I think the yard will have to accept that he may be destined for low grade handicaps rather than festival appearances.

2:05 Kempton - Miss Milborne (6/1) - 1pt e/w - An ultra competitive listed mares hurdle and I believe my selection holds solid claims, at an e/w price. Although the likes of Kells Belle and Knockfierna will be difficult to beat, both have questions to answer though and my personal feeling is that MM is in form, suited by conditions and is real battler. She is still relatively unexposed as a 6yo having only raced 8 times over hurdles and although her future will ultimately lie over fences, she may just have one more big race over hurdles left in her.

Japan Cup

6:40 Tokyo - Orfevre (7/4) - 6pt win (2nd)

Todays Selections

2:00 Haydock - Universal Soldier (10/3) - 6pt win (2nd)
2:30 Haydock - Sivola De Sivola (9/2) - 3pt win (3rd)
3:05 Haydock - Long Run (7/4) - 3pt win (2nd)
2:10 Ascot -  Finnian's Rainbow (1/1) - 3pt win (UP)

Today's Selections

12:55 Ascot - Many Clouds (4/1) - 3pt win (1st)

1:55 Haydock - Super Duty (7/2) - 3pt win (2nd)

2:05 Ascot - Close Touch (8/13) - 3pt win (1st)

2:30 Haydock - Clondaw Kaempfer (4/5) - 3pt win (1st - SP 6/5)

3:05 Haydock - Wilton Milan (2/1) - 3pt win (3rd)

Some really good jumps racing today and all five of my selections feature on my horses to follow list. Although the likes of Close Touch and Clondaw are short enough in the betting, I still believe that both horses should win their respective races with ease and if they do then the current prices (especially Clondaw's) will look like great value.

Today's Selections

2:30 Meydan - Interpret (5/1) - 3pt win (2nd)
3:10 Market Rasen - Billy Cuckoo (5/2) - 3pt win (UP)
7:10 Kempton - Triple Charm (11/4) - 3pt win (UP)


5:40 Kempton - Embankment (6/1) - 1pt e/w (1st - SP 10/1) 
6:40 Kempton - Be Perfect (11/1) - 1pt e/w (2nd)

Today's Selections

1:40 Hexham - Dotties Dilema (11/4) - 3pt win (2nd)
3:40 Hexham - Rupert Bear (5/2) - 3pt win (1st)
6:30 Kempton - Pearl Mix (9/2) - 3pt win (1st)

Today's Selection

12:20- honest strike (11/2) - 3pt win

I'm currently in Germany so finding the time to study the cards has been difficult. Normal service will resume tomorrow.

Today's Selection

2:35 - Grand Crus (2/1) - 6pt win

Today's Selections

2:25 Cheltenham - Dodging Bullets (5/4) - 3pt win

3:45 Newcastle - Liberty Court (10/3) - 3pt win

Today's Selections

3:40 Taunton - Malin Head (3/1) - 3pt win
6:55 Kempton - Tommy's Secret (9/1) - 1pt e/w

Today's Selections

2:30 Bangor - Moidore (11/10) - 3pt win

3:30 Bangor - Drum Valley (13/8) - 3pt win

3:35 Downpatrick - Curley Bill (15/8) - 3pt win

4:00 Bangor - Lucanor (7/1) - 1pt e/w (info)

4:25 Kempton - Renegotiate (6/5) - 3pt win

4:00 Lingfield (Info)

Pepelina (3/1) - 3pt win - connections have been waiting for a long time to get this one out and today's the day. She works very well at home is impeccably bred and should be extremely difficult to beat.

Today's Selection

I was so glad that yesterday went well because it was very important to get things back on track after last weeks poor performance.

You know the NH season has started when you see three jumps meetings on one day and to be honest the majority of the racing today is poor. Despite there a few nice betting prospects and I'm hopeful that today will match yesterdays results.

2:10 Huntingdon - Tadabeer (33/1) - 1pt e/w - This is probably an optimistic selection but I do believe that this horse has what it takes to be competitive in a race like this. On his previous flat form he is weighted to be competitive with the other ex turf horses in the field and unlike most of them has some hurdling experience. Obviously his previous 2 performances in today's discipline were nothing to get too excited about but both races featured some nice individuals and it Tadabeer was clearly using them as schooling exercises. Williams does well with horses such as this and he is definitely a trainer to follow at Huntingdon having maintained a 21% strike rate with his hurdlers there in recent years.


2:40 Huntingdon - Rajdhani Express (2/1) - 3pt win - A horse who was largely disappointing last season having previously shown some smart form in France. Henderson has actually given this horse a wind op which is not something he does too often but if it has the desired effect, then this horse could prove to be extremely well handicapped. Obviously the Nicholls horse deserves respect but at the current prices I prefer Rajdhani although the presence of SWC nearly put me off.


3:10 Huntingdon - Countess Comet (3/1) - 3pt win - Very little to say about this horse as it's an info selection. The word received is that a big run is expected and she should be difficult to beat.


3:20 Sedgefield - Carpincho (9/2) - 3pt win - Plenty in this horses favour today as he seems to be getting his ideal race conditions. He showed some smart form last season before putting in a few disappointing efforts in the final few runs of his campaign. His connections have now reached for the tongue tie, which looks like a sensible decision as the horse seemed to be fading towards the end of his races (possible sign of breathing issues). Having only had a handful of runs the horse clearly has further room for improvement and I would be disappointed if he wasn't competitive today.


3:40 Huntingdon - Nurse Ratched (3/1) - 3pt win - In all honesty this is a terrible bumper but for that reason, Nurse Ratched stands out like a sore thumb! If the horse is ready to do herself justice on her first start then she's definitely bred to win a race like this and the fact that Timmy hangs around to take the mount, can add to my confidence.


3:50 Sedgefield - Scriptwriter (9/1) - 1pt e/w - Difficult to oppose a horse which such a solid CD record and off his current mark he can definitely put in a big run here today.

4:00 Carlisle

No Deal (4/1) - 3pt win - Big run expected from this horse and should get the job done well.

0.50pt reverse forecast - No Deal and Cloud Creeper

Today's Selections

There is no doubt that last week was one of the worst weeks in my betting career to date. My bets over the course of the week resulted in a net loss of over 20pts and that quite frankly is unacceptable. I spent the majority of my Sunday tinkering with my selection process and studying my betting journals and I can promise my readers that we won't be experiencing a loss like that again any time soon!


Due to the adverse weather conditions elsewhere I will be concentrating my efforts on the jumps card at Southwell today.

12:40 - Tatispout (3/1) - 3pt win - Not a great little race this but the Longsdon horse does look like a value bet against the current favourite. The horse has been out of sorts recently but I'm hoping the combination of a return to good ground and a small field will spark a revival. He is definitely more than capable on his day and Longsdon has targeted the course at Southwell to good effect in recent times. On the pick of his previous form, he clearly well handicapped and providing he stays on his feet, he should run well.

1:10 - Legendary Hop (11/2) - 1pt e/w - I'm taking a punt here on the top weight who in my opinion has more room for improvement than most of his competitors  To date this horse has only had 7 career runs and this race today is only his second over fences. His previous experience came in a class 3  beginners chase and it was no surprise that he was outclassed. Today's race looks more realistic, he should be race fit after his previous outing and his trainer has a solid strike rate with his chasers and is 4 from 18 at the track in recent seasons.

3:50 - Ballyalton (1/1) - 3pt win - This is a horse from my to follow list and it's one which I fully expect to win today. I have heard some very positive things about this horse over the last few weeks and the rumours circulating are this one is going to be the subject of a major punt by it's gambling connections. All things considered it would be a very brave man who opposes this horse today.

Today's Selections

1:25 Doncaster - Front Page News (14/1) - 1pt e/w

2:00 Doncaster - Wannabe  Love (12/1) - 1pt e/w

2:15 Wincanton - Court in Motion (7/2) - 3pt win

2:50 Wincanton - Prospect Wells (5/2) - 3pt win

3:25 Wincanton - Golden Chieftain (7/1) - 1pt ew

4:00 Wincanton - The Stout Italian (7/2) - 3pt win

Today's Selections

Unfortunately no write up's today due to time constraints.

1:20 Musselburgh - Restraint (9/4) -  3pt win

1:50 Musselburgh - Swift Escape (6/1) - 1pt e/w

2:50 Musselburgh - Simple Ned (7/4) - 3pt win

4:10 Fontwell - Hands on Bach (9/2) - 3pt win

INFO - I've received a few bits of info today from Musselburgh but having looked at the horses and their opposition, both selections look rather suspect and I was initially minded to overlook them. However, this particular source has provided us with two nice winners in the last two days (5/1 & 4/1) and therefore I'm willing to have a small punt on both of them.

2:20 Musselburgh - Ifyouthinkso (5/1) - 1pt e/w

2:50 Musselburgh - Unknown Rebel (10/1) - 1pt e/w

Info - 7:50 Wolves

Guarda Pampa (16/1) - 1pt ew - a big run is apparently expected from this horse tonight. Obviously a risky betting proposition but it's a nice price and it's a weak race so who knows, maybe the info will prove to be spot on.

3:00 Meydan

Final Recovery (3/1) - 3pt win - After just being denied on Interpret in the opener Smith will be looking for blood here and this horse definitely has what it takes to win this race. His previous run at Jebel Ali should have blown away the cobwebs and with Watson going into the race heavy handed the booking of Smith should tell punters everything they need to know. I expect him to win and win well.

2:30 Meydan

Interpret (5/1) - 3pt win - Basically, having spotted that this particular horse is making his debut today,  I have to back him.

A few years ago a friend of mine was working for a bloodstock expert in America where he was given the task of cruising the lesser sales for low grade handicap types for syndicates. He wasn't spotting classic winners but he enjoyed his job and he still got a great degree of pleasure when the horses he had selected went on to win money for their connections. Anyway, one day he gets a phone call from his boss and he's excited, he tells him that a horse is due to go through the sales ring at Saratoga which has everyone talking and the general feeling among the experts is that this horse could be the golden ticket. Obviously my friend wasn't experienced enough to make that kind of assessment but his boss invited him to tag along for the ride and what a ride it proved to be.

The buzz horse that day was Interpret, a Distorted Humour colt out of a Interprete mare. He was a half brother to the incredible Invasor who was a Breeders Cup and Dubai Cup winner (beaten once in 12 starts), together with a triple crown winner in South America and a Dam who was a half sister to a Group 1 winner in Argentina. The horse was an incredible specimen, well built, appeared to have an impeccable temperament and his action was a thing of beauty. Having observed the horse all of the experts agreed that this horse was one for the history books and what ensued was a bidding frenzy. Having seen his boss pull-out of the bidding war at the heady price of $500,000 he watched in awe as 3 agents continued to bid until the horse was eventually sold to the master of the sales John Ferguson for $900,000.

With their tails between their legs they left Saratoga that day feeling like they had just missed out on purchasing the next all american superstar but the reality couldn't have been further from the truth. Following that day in August everything fell apart for Interpret and at the age of 4 he finally makes his race course debut on the Tapeta at Meydan, in a lowish grade maiden, over 7f and he's wearing a visor! Despite that, I still feel I owe  a duty to back him and if he's half the horse which my friend and the other agents saw at the sales all those years ago, then he should still be more then capable of demolishing his opposition today. I will maintain the faith until he proves me wrong and at the moment I'm taking comfort in the fact that he remains a colt and his connections have persevered with him.

No matter what happens today, this horse sums up the difficulties trainers, owners and agents experience when trying to purchase the next superstar. Okay, the horse still has time to become a winner but he will never be the horses that his connections believed he could be. I have to take this opportunity to congratulate his owners though, who have stuck by him through the dark times when it would have been so easy just to offload him to a lesser yard. I for one, hope he wins today and goes on to have a successful campaign in Dubai this winter but like so many things in this wonderful sport, most outcomes will be decided by the racing Gods but the trials and tribulations of racing are what makes this such an enthralling sport.

Today Selections/Info

1:30 Musselburgh - Dovils Date (6/4) - 3pt win - This horse was an average flat horse but has taken to hurdling very well and having move to a yard which does extremely well with it's new recruits (especially favs) I expect a big showing from this one today.


2:20 Towecester - Destroyer Deployed (5/1) - 1pt e/w - I always thought this horse would develop into a nice hurdler but his season last year was terrible and his jumping left a lot to be desired. I saw in a recent stable tour that his trainer has sharpened up and he's apparently improved considerably. If that does prove to be the case then his current mark could well prove to be on the low side. 


2:30 Musselburgh - Civil Unrest (4/1) - 3pt win (Info) - This horse had a few decent bits of form last season but for one reason or another his form tailed off towards the end of the campaign and he never really fulfilled his potential. His connections have been schooling him over fences for a while now and he has been showing a high degree of promise. They strong believe that he should get his ideal conditions today and providing that he stays on his feet they think he should go close. They don't want any rain so watch out for that before placing your bet on this one.


3:50 Towcester - Pastoral (7/4) - 3pt win - A Juddmonte bred filly who should be very competitive today if fit enough to do herself justice. Her Dam was a nice middle distance flat performer out of King's Theatre and I have a feeling that this one may turn out to be quite smart.


That completes today's jumps selections but I'm waiting on a further piece of info at Musselburgh and will also have a look at the Meydan card to see if anything catches my eye there.

Warwick Info

12:50 Dormouse (5/1) - 3pt win- Apparently well fancied and a very large gamble expected to be landed. (1st)

Today's Selections

Very disappointed with yesterdays results but once again it highlighted the success of my Horses to Follow list as Arctic Roller, Landscape and Theatre Guide all won. Selections from the HTF will be highlighted in red.

I'm slightly short of time today so there won't be any detailed write up's I'm afraid but if you have any questions about the selections don't hesitate to email me or leave a comment and I will get back to you.

1:00 Chepstow - Bladoun (4/5 - 2 places) - 3pt bet

2:10 Nottingham - Motion Lass (9/4) - 3pt win

2:20 Warwick - Hazy Tom (6/4) - 3pt win

3:40 Chepstow - For the Staff (7/2) - 3pt win INFO

4:05 Warwick - Fine Moment (9/1) - 1pt e/w

Info

5:30Wolves - Sandy Lane (6/1) - 3pt win

Today's Selections

Today features one of the highlights of the early season jumps calendar with the Haldon Gold Cup meeting at Exeter. Its a difficult meeting for me though as it features a large number of my horses to follow together with one entry which is of significant personal interest. The following horses from my to follow list hold entries today; Atlantic Roller, Salmanazar, The Potting Shed, Look For Love, Landscape, Billy Twyford, Regal Presence, Menorah, Theatre Guide and Hinterland.

Obviously I cant back them all, so here are today's selections;

1:50 Exeter - The Potting Shed (10/1) - 1pt e/w - This horse was the subject of a major gamble which went astray in a PTP race earlier in the year. The horse was smashed in the betting as stable money flooded in for him and news of the plot began to spread amongst the racing community. Unfortunately the horse went down by a length to a resolute winner and the yards money ended up in the pockets of the bookies. Since then, the horse has changed hands and according to recent reports has been working immaculately at home with some of the yards leading lights. Mrs Lavelle has really hit form in the last few days and having one this race in the past with Court in Motion, it's clearly a race she targets with her top recruits. I don't doubt for a second that the likes of Atlantic Roller and Salmanazar will be competitive but its rare that this shrewd trainer is so vocal about one of her horses ability and I just have a feeling the this horse could be a very smart individual.


2:20 Exeter - Look For Love (14/1) - 1pt e/w - Everything is telling me to back Billy Twyford in this race as McCoy has a stunning strike rate for Henderson in recent times and the horse has the profile of a progressive individual. However for one reason or another I've sided with Look For Love and I just hope I don't end up with egg on my face come the end of the race.


2:50 Exeter - Menorah (3/1) -3pt win - Although I have a strong affection for Cue Card, personally I feel that Menorah is the value bet in the race. Hobbs has a solid record in the Haldon and top weights usually perform with credit. The horse himself usually comes to hand early in the season and will have no problem with the conditions as he has a stunning strike rate on ground described as good to soft. He also does well on undulating courses and unlike Cue Card has experience going right handed. I know for a fact that Hobbs has always seen this race as Menorah's intended target since the end of last season and I expect him to be fully wound up as his performance today will decide his path this season in terms of big race entries. For me its one of those races which you could decide on the toss of a coin but when you consider the difference in price, Menorah is the obvious pick.

Today's Selections

After a disappointing weekend I fully intend to get back on track today as I look to hit my target of 350pts profit by the end of November. With just the one flat meeting at Wolverhampton today it looks as if the jumps cards at Plumpton and Kempton will be the place to find a few winners and that is where I will be concentrating my efforts.

1:00 Kempton - Rysbrack (10/3) - 3pt win - Not a particularly strong race for the course and it looks to be a perfect opportunity for Rysbrack to get a hurdles win under his belt. For those that don't know, the horse is an absolute monster and measures in excess of 17 hands! He made a winning start for the yard back in June last year when winning an above average NHF race at Worcester. He went off as favourite that day and won despite showing signs of greeness. A couple of horses in behind him have subsequently performed well over hurdles and the form is working out very nicely. Since that race his trainer elected to campaign him on the turf and although he didn't win a race he performed with credit on numerous occasions. His trainer has always considered him to be a nice National Hunt horse and I expected him to run well in what appears to be a weak race. (2nd)


2:40 Kempton - Black Thunder (3/1) - 3pt win - This is a horse who should progress into a very nice chaser this season but for the time being I think he has at least one more race in him over hurdles. His season last year as a novice was very pleasing and his back to back wins at Chepstow and Tauton represent solid form in the context of this race. Most NH punter will be aware of the fact that Nicholls excels in November and his strike rate at the course is also very pleasing. Having looked at this race for sometime, there is no doubt that there are a few potential spoilers going to post but I think Black Thunder is head and shoulders above his opposition and I expected him to win and win well. (3rd)


2:50 Wolverhampton - Alaskan Bullet (13/8) - 3pt win - I don't usually back in selling races but to me this looks like a no brainer. The race itself is incredibly weak but Alaskan put in a solid performance last time out over CD when he recorded a speed rating which has to be taken very seriously in the context of this race. Many people have a few gripes with Bakers riding style but personally I think he's top notch and in a race like this he should be able to use the horses speed to win this race right on the line. At the current time I'm struggling to find any viable alternative to AB and it's only the low class nature of the race which has prevented me from max betting this one. (1st)


4:25 Wolverhampton - Maun Vrat (4/5) - 3pt win - You don't have to be a rocket scientist to come to the conclusion that Maun Vrat really should be winning this race given her considerable weight advantage. Due to the age and sex allowances she appears to have been placed to perfection by Ed Dunlop who has always targets meeting at Wolves to very good effect. He has also booked Graham Lee to take the ride who has a 33% strike rate for the yard this season and is already proving himself to be a real threat as a flat jockey. All thing considered, provided she gets a strong pace to aim at, I can't see her being beaten. (UP)

Today's Selection

2:40 Carlisle - Rival D'Estruval (11/8) - 6pt Max Win - Just the one bet today and it's a max. The horse won in fine style last time out and is definitely put in an advantageous position by today's weights. One of the deciding factors  behind my selection today though is the yards connection to man who is the subject of today's memorial race, Colin Parker.

12:35 Santa Anita

Ron the Greek (7/1) - 1pt e/w & 3pt win

11:40 Santa Anita

Obviously (12/1) - 1pt ew

10:18 Santa Anita

Trailblazer (5/1) - 3pt win

8:14 Santa Anita

Fed Biz (5/1) - 3pt win

More Breeders Cup meet selections to follow

Hills Info

12:45 Newmarket - Not Truth (7/1) - 1pt e/w
1:55 Newmarket - Desert Image (2/1) - 3pt win

Both horses are expected to put in big performances today.

Breeders Cup Selections

Detailed write up's of each race to follow soon. I will only be backing the horse which have a stake detailed next to them but for those punters who are looking to place additional bets I will be providing my selection for each and every race

8:06 - Merit Man (7/4) - No Bet

8:46 - Juniper Pass (20/1)  - No Bet

9:28 - Spring Venture (6/1)  - 1pt e/w & Watsdachances (7/1) - 1pt e/w (0.50pt Reverse Forecast)

10:08 - Executive Privilege (2/1) - 3pt win (NAP)

10:48 - Hahrain (13/2) - 1pt e/w (NB)

11:30 - Royal Delta (11/4) - No Bet

12:15 - Speaking of Witch (2/1) - No Bet

4:05 Uttoxeter

WESTERLY BREEZE (10/1) - 1pt e/w - I'm a sucker for a bumper race and on the basis of this horses pedigree he should have a major say in this race. I obviously respect the favourite who is also bred to be smart and definitely wasn't a cheap purchase so to cover my back I will also be placing a reverse forecast bet. Side Bet - Westerly Breeze and Dreams of Milan - 0.50pt Reverse Forecast (Total Stake 1pt)

Additional Bet = Westerly Breeze (10/3) - 3pt win - Betting without Dreams of Milan or Ballinvarrig



Breeders Cup selections to follow later this evening.

Info

2:55 Uttoxeter - Grassfinch (9/2) - 3pt win - Apparently very well fancied in this contest and should win with a bit up her sleeve. (1st)

2:35 Wetherby

Flashman (13/2) - 1pt e.w - Now this is an interesting little race which has been thrown wide open by the withdrawal of McCoys mount. I'm taking a risk here as the Nicholls horse actually features on my horses to follow list but from what I've read and heard about him, he hasn't done an awful lot of work since arriving at the yard and Paul isn't 100% sure what his best trip is. With that in mind I feel that connections may use this race as an educational exercise and therefore we may see an outsider taking the prize home and I believe that outsider may well be Flashman. Flashman was a reasonable performer on the flat and his sire has had a tremendous start with his jumpers. He handles soft ground and his trainer targets this course when it comes to his jumpers and his position in the market suggests to me that a big run is expected. (2nd)

First Jump Selection

1:00 Wetherby - Spanish Art (10/1) - 1pt e/w - I'm seriously short of time here so I'm going to keep this one brief. The fact is that this horse was smashed in the betting LTO but failed to live up to expectations. A lot of the yards horses have been needing the run and I expect a much better showing here today. He's up against a few horses that may well need the run and I think he is a very appealing price at 10/1.

More bets to follow.

Today's Selections

Today is officially a bumper day of racing and today's blog will feature info from Newmarket, a banker in Jebel Ali, a couple of e/w punts in America and two potentially smart national hunt bets. Obviously with so many things going on it will pay to keep popping back to the blog throughout the day because with the flat season winding down and the NH season kicking into gear there are sure to be plenty of gambles going on. I'm also going to be detailing my thought on most of today's Breeders Cup races throughout the day/evening so keep an eye out for those.

11:35 Jebel Ali - MY VERSE (7/2) - 3pt Win - Those people that know me well will know that I love the UAE racing and with the season kicking off today the first thing I did this morning was look through the card and this little beauty immediately caught my eye. My Verse races in the colours of Maktoum and is a Jebel Ali specialist, runs well fresh and has the assistance of Cosgrave. She does have a bit to find at the weights but I still think she will be ultra competitive today and I would be very surprised if she doesn't go close. (2nd)

12:40 Newmarket - WINTER SONG (4/1) - 3pt Win (Info) - No secret that the yard target this race and the word received for this horse this morning was extremely positive. The yard is definitely winding down but they still have a few winners left in them and providing that this one handles the ground, it should be winning this race. (1st)

Further selections will be posted around lunch time.

Breeders Cup - The Lasix Debate

So the day has finally arrived and we see the start of the Breeders Cup in Santa Anita. This years renewal is especially interesting as the racing authorities have taken the controversial decision to ban Lasix amongst the juvenile ranks which has led many American trainers to boycott the meeting. The question which the average punter needs to be asking themselves is how this will effect the horses performance and will it tip the scales in favour of the European raiders.

For those who aren't familiar with Lasix it is a drug administered prior to the race to prevent bleeding in the horses lungs. It has been legal in American racing since the 1970's and has been employed to great effect by the majority of the racing elite. In order to understand the reasoning behind it's use a punter needs to understand what causes a horse to bleed and I'm going to try and explain it in simple terms.

A horses body is dividend into two half's (front and the back) separated by a thin diaphragm. The front half contains the animals vital organs such as his heart and lungs, while the back half contains his intestines which are suspended from the chest cavity via sensory ligaments.When the Diaphragm contracts it has the effect of increasing the area of the chest cavity which allows the horse to draw air into its lungs. When running this activity is synchronised so that the horse inhales when his front feet hit the ground and exhales when they leave the ground. This design on the whole works perfectly but the problem with bleeding and breathing is in fact caused in the back section of the horse by the suspended intestines and the reason for this is as follows. During a strenuous fast gallop, the horse's intestines will begin to swing like a pendulum and in some cases they will move out of synch with the perpetual motion of the horses. When this happens the intestines will begin to bash against the  diaphragm and the diaphragm will subsequently push the lungs into the chest wall causing the fine capillaries at the bottom of the lungs to rupture. When the capillaries rupture blood will begin to fill the lungs and the horse will immediately struggle to breath. Although Lasix will not prevent the diaphragm from coming into contact with the lungs, it does lower the horses blood pressure which prevents the capillaries from significant bleeding when ruptured. This in turn will prevent the horse from experiencing breathing problems mid race.

So now that we understand the reason for a horse bleeding, we have to attempt to analyse whether the ban on Lasix will effect the performance of the American Juveniles in this years Breeders Cup and in my opinion it is a resounding YES!

It is a well established fact that American thoroughbreds suffer from breathing problems due to weakness in their bloodlines. There are also external factors which add to the problem such as heat, dust, firm tracks and a racing schedule which favours sprint disciplines over middle distance racing. With this in mind it seems prudent to believe that the first two juveniles races on today's card (Juvenile Sprint and the Juvenile Fillies) could be the scenes of racing upsets as all of the American entries are coming of Lasix for the first time. Although numerous trainers have come out and stated that they believe that their runners will cope with the withdrawal, I have serious reservations, especially as every single one of those horses will be approximately 20lb higher than their previous run due to the urinal discharge associated with the drug. With that in mind I believe it may well pay to side with the European raiders in both races, although the fact that the Juvenille sprint is run on the specialist dirt track may just put and end to CEILING KITTY chances of actually winning the race.

Another point to note is that Godolphin's American operation has been against the use of the drug for a number of years and therefore their runners will not be effected by the ban. With that in mind FORTIFY may prove to be a real danger in the Grey Goose Breeders Juvenile tomorrow evening.

So that concludes my run down of the Lasix debate at this years Breeders Cup and my advice to all punters is to think twice before backing a horse who's running without it for the first time, especially in sprint races.Obviously the Breeders offers so much more than just Juvenile races and I will be covering the majority of the races and providing my selections over the next few hours as we lead up to the curtain call.

INFO

Jaunty Journey (9/2) - 3pt win - if the word is to believe then a big run is expected from this horse today

Today's Selections

Today's selections will be a mix of flat and NH horses. I will warn my readers now though that there is a lot of guess work going on here as all 3 selections have been picked purely on the basis of their pedigrees/trainers records as there is little else to go on in the way of past form (Prince is Truth excluded). With that in mind there is every chance that the horses in question may need the run or that they are being preserved with future races in mind and for that reason all of today's selections will be e/w bets. Hopefully a few of them will be strong in the market over the next few hours because at the moment I'm slightly nervous about today's picks but I do love bloodstock analysis and hopefully my homework will pay off.

12:50 Lingfield - Fusion (6/1) - 1pt e/w

1:20 Lingfield - World Map (6/1) - 1pt e/w

1:50 Lingfield - Price is Truth (9/2) - 1pt e/w

4:25 Clonmel - Young Lady (16/1) - 1pt e/w