Unfortunately the weather has once again taken it's toll on today's racing and unfortunately with the ground described as extremely heavy at Lingfield I won't be having a financial interest in any of the races today. To keep things interesting though I will be providing my readers with a theoretical selection in each race and will also be detailing a few stats which will hopefully help those brave people who are betting today to find a couple of winners.
MUD LOVING SIRES
As most of you know I love the breeding aspect of horse racing and the ability to handle soft/heavy conditions is definitely an attribute which is capable of being passed on from a horses sire. With that in mind it's always good to look at those Sires who have a solid record of producing mud loving progeny and there are a few on show at Lingers today. To qualify a sire must have had at least 50 NH runners on ground described as heavy in the last 2 years and and must have achieved a minimum win rate of 10%.
Kayf Tara - 14% Strike rate on heavy ground in NH races in the last 2 years (97 runs, 14 wins, 35 place)
Beneficial - 11% Strike rate on heavy ground in NH races in the last 2 years (392 runs, 45 wins,109 place)
Montjeu - 13% Strike rate on heavy ground in NH races in the last 2 years (72 runs, 9 wins, 17 place)
Kings Theatre -15% strike rate on heavy ground in NH races in the last 2 years(185 runs,28 win,65 place)
Lord Americo - 13% Strike rate on heavy ground in NH races in the last 2 years (56 runs, 7 wins,21 place)
Karinga Bay -10% Strike rate on heavy ground in NH races in the last 2 years (77 runs, 8 wins, 16 places)
Alderbrook - 14% Strike rate on heavy ground in NH races in the last 2 years (94 runs, 13 wins,29 places)
Old Vic - 11% Strike rate on heavy ground in NH races in the last 2 years (212 runs, 23 wins, 59 places)
Cloudings - 11% Strike rate on heavy ground in NH races in the last 2 years (53 runs, 6 wins, 13 places)
BEEN THERE DONE THAT
Although a runners sire may given you an indication of whether the horse will be able to handle the mud, there is no substitute for experience and therefore it's of paramount importance that punters look to zone in on any horse who is proven in the conditions. Another key aspect to remember, is that soft ground is very different from heavy ground and therefore one shouldn't automatically assume that a soft ground performer will handle heavy going. With that in mind we are looking only for horses who have won or placed on ground described as heavy and I have detailed a few of them below.
Hidden Identity (Beneficial)
Lady Willa (Footstepsinthesand)
Rosoff (New Frontier)
Aikideau (La Balafre)
Dormouse (Medicean)
Pete the Feat (Kings Theatre)
Pensnett Bay (Karinga Bay)
WATCH THEM RUN INTO THE DISTANCE
It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that testing conditions lead to a test of stamina and therefore a horses ability to stay the trip and stay it well, is a valuable commodity. Personally I would be very weary of any horse which is stepping up in trip for the first time today or has failed to at least place in a previous race over today's distance. The next thing to avoid are horses wearing tongue ties as breathing issues can be exasperated by testing conditions and therefore horses with breathing aids may tire quickly.
In summary, its always difficult to find winners when the conditions deteriorate but punters can use all the tools at their disposal to try and find something to place their money on. My advice would be to look for horses who have proved themselves in the mud, stay the trip and don't have a breathing aid. I would also avoid horses who have run in the last 15 days, together with those who are not proven when carrying weight.
MY THEORETICAL SELECTIONS
Hidden Identity (1/2)
Queen of the West (16/1)
De La Bech (5/1)
Cantlow (2/1)
Dormouse (3/1)
Pesnett Bay (10/3)
Micah (20/1)
For those readers placing a bet today, I wish you the best of luck because my god are you going to need it. My advice, keep your money in your pocket and wait for another day!
No comments:
Post a Comment