After a disappointing weekend I fully intend to get back on track today as I look to hit my target of 350pts profit by the end of November. With just the one flat meeting at Wolverhampton today it looks as if the jumps cards at Plumpton and Kempton will be the place to find a few winners and that is where I will be concentrating my efforts.
1:00 Kempton - Rysbrack (10/3) - 3pt win - Not a particularly strong race for the course and it looks to be a perfect opportunity for Rysbrack to get a hurdles win under his belt. For those that don't know, the horse is an absolute monster and measures in excess of 17 hands! He made a winning start for the yard back in June last year when winning an above average NHF race at Worcester. He went off as favourite that day and won despite showing signs of greeness. A couple of horses in behind him have subsequently performed well over hurdles and the form is working out very nicely. Since that race his trainer elected to campaign him on the turf and although he didn't win a race he performed with credit on numerous occasions. His trainer has always considered him to be a nice National Hunt horse and I expected him to run well in what appears to be a weak race. (2nd)
2:40 Kempton - Black Thunder (3/1) - 3pt win - This is a horse who should progress into a very nice chaser this season but for the time being I think he has at least one more race in him over hurdles. His season last year as a novice was very pleasing and his back to back wins at Chepstow and Tauton represent solid form in the context of this race. Most NH punter will be aware of the fact that Nicholls excels in November and his strike rate at the course is also very pleasing. Having looked at this race for sometime, there is no doubt that there are a few potential spoilers going to post but I think Black Thunder is head and shoulders above his opposition and I expected him to win and win well. (3rd)
2:50 Wolverhampton - Alaskan Bullet (13/8) - 3pt win - I don't usually back in selling races but to me this looks like a no brainer. The race itself is incredibly weak but Alaskan put in a solid performance last time out over CD when he recorded a speed rating which has to be taken very seriously in the context of this race. Many people have a few gripes with Bakers riding style but personally I think he's top notch and in a race like this he should be able to use the horses speed to win this race right on the line. At the current time I'm struggling to find any viable alternative to AB and it's only the low class nature of the race which has prevented me from max betting this one. (1st)
4:25 Wolverhampton - Maun Vrat (4/5) - 3pt win - You don't have to be a rocket scientist to come to the conclusion that Maun Vrat really should be winning this race given her considerable weight advantage. Due to the age and sex allowances she appears to have been placed to perfection by Ed Dunlop who has always targets meeting at Wolves to very good effect. He has also booked Graham Lee to take the ride who has a 33% strike rate for the yard this season and is already proving himself to be a real threat as a flat jockey. All thing considered, provided she gets a strong pace to aim at, I can't see her being beaten. (UP)
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