Today's Selections

12:40 Uttoxeter - Shutthefrontdoor (11/10) - 3pt win (1st - SP 15/8)

1:10 Uttoxeter - Prickles (4/1) - 3pt win (1st)

2:10 Uttoxeter - Kings Sunset (4/1) - 3pt win (UP)

3:40 Uttoxeter - Salto Chisco (2/1) - 3pt win (2nd)

3:45 Tranmore - Glen Beg (5/1) - 3pt win (UP)

1:00 Lingfield - Liliana (5/4) - 3pt win (2nd)

Today's Selections

12:40 Taunton - King Spirit (33/1) - 1pt e/w  (3rd)

2:20 Taunton - Ma Filleule (11/10)  - 3pt win (2nd)

2:20 Taunton - 0.50pt Reverse Forecast - Number 2 & 6 (1pt Total Stake)

2:55 Taunton - Honest John (4/1) - 3pt win (info - same source as Laterly on Friday) (3rd)

Today's Selections

It's going to be almost impossible to beat yesterday's results but I will give it my best shot.

12:30 Newbury - Simply Ben (15/2) - 1pt e/w (INFO) (4th - SP 4/1 JF)

1:35 Newbury - Module (11/4) - 3pt win (1st)

1:50 Doncaster - Beyeh (4/1) - 3pt win (2nd)

2:25 Doncaster - Barafundle (7/2) - 3pt win (NB) (2nd)

2:45 Newbury - Clondaw Kaempher (7/4) - 3pt win (NAP) (PU)

Full write up's will hopefully be posted before the first race at 12:30.

Info

3:40 Leicester - Laterly (10/3) -  3pt win - This horse is apparently primed to win today. (1st)

Today's Selections

2:10 Leicester - Denali Highway (7/2) - 3pt win - When I saw this was a memorial race in honour of Pat and Ken Payne I was immediately drawn to Denali Highway who is part owned by Ian Payne who I assume is the couples son. I can't be 100% sure but the only Ken Payne I know of that was involved in racing was a Lambourne based trainer who became famous for his massive punts in selling races. His story is one of the most colourful and extraordinary tales in racing but it's also a reminder of how things can go terribly wrong in this fine sport. Given Ken's history it would be poignant to see him land a gamble from beyond the grave and I believe that Denali has the talent to do it. Although he is still relatively new to chasing he showed enough on his debut in a hot Class 3 contest over today's CD to suggest that he has a future in this game. With a drop in class, a test of stamina certain to be on the cards and a trainer that excels at the course on his side, I think he can win this one. (1st)

3:10 Leicester - Bucking The Trend (3/1) - 3pt win - I very nearly decided to give this race a miss as it looks like a bit of a betting nightmare but in the end I convinced myself to have a punt on the Vaughan runner. I was impressed by this horse both in it's bumper and its debut hurdle win and he appears to be the type of horse that vaughan excels with. Although he's not destined for the dizzy heights, he's more than capable of winning a race like this and I think the nature of the course at Leicester should really play to his strengths.  Although the purchase price of the Jonjo horse appears to be impressive, I was far from impressed by the horses attitude on it's debut run and if he exhibits those idol tendencies again today, then he could be vulnerable on the long uphill run in to the finish. With the favourite looking a bit suspect I believe this could be a prime opportunity for BTT to record his second career win. (1st)

3:35 Leopardstown - Tangled Web (2/1) - 3pt win - This is a no brainer bet for me as every stage on my selection checklist brings me back to this horse. He performed well on debut, has a nice pedigree, a quality jockey and weak opposition. (1st)

Today's Selections

1:30 Kempton - Silver Gypsy (12/1) - 1pt e/w - I'm not sure this is the most sensible selection but something about this horses profile leads me to believe that she may just step up on her recent form today. Although she is yet to race beyond 2m 5f I'm pretty certain that she should relish the step up in trip together with the conditions. She is out of a dam who was a winning PTP runner over 3miles and the Gypsy's best run in recent months came over 22f at Cheltenham on soft ground. Since that race she has been campaigned over distances between 17-20f and despite featuring prominently in the betting she has looked one paced and sluggish at her jumps and has been well beaten on all three occasions. As well as the step up in trip and the ground, SG also has the TP combination on for the second time and that should help her settle into a nice jumping routine. At a current price of 12/1 I believe the horse represents a good e/w and although I wouldn't be surprised if she finished outside of the places, I think she may be the dark horse in the race. (2nd - SP 16/1)

2:05 Kempton - French Opera (9/2) - 3pt win - Make no mistake this horse is going to be extremely difficult to place this season and with that in mind Henderson may well have found this horse the perfect opportunity on his reappearance. Although you have to take his fitness on trust, horses from this yard are usually wound up first time out and with distance and conditions to suit he should run well. He also gets a significant weight allowance from all of his competitors and this could well be a case of perfect product placement. (UP)

2:20 Wetherby - Drumshambo (11/8) - 3pt win - Despite carrying a 7lb penalty for his recent win I still believe this horse has more room for improvement than his competitors. Obviously course specialist Lease Lend is a danger but he's had his problems and was a well beaten favourite last time out. The Ellison horse could prove to be the biggest danger carrying a featherweight but the booking of Kyle James is a major negative for me and with that in mind, Drumshambo is fancied to complete his hatrick. (1st)

2:55 Wetherby - United Park (7/4) - 3pt win - When I was looking through the card last night this horse immediately caught my eye and it wasn't just because his trainer has brought him over from France for the race. The real reason for my interest stems from a conversation I had with a French NH owner earlier this year regard United Park's ex stablemate Unioniste. Unioniste was sold out of the Macaire yard in October this year and immediately made his mark for the Champion trainer when winning the Cheltenham Gold Cup. I had heard good things about the horse in France but I had been told by a connected party that United Park was every bit as good at home on the Gallops in Les Mathes. The horse has already amassed £76,000 in prize money and if he has half the talent of Unioniste then he has to be considered a real contender in today's race. He has form on heavy ground, a great pedigree and the assistance of Mr Reveley in the saddle who has a solid strike rate over fences at the track. (1st)

3:55 Wincanton

The Mobb (9/2) - 3pt win

3:35 Sedgefield

Hellorboston (11/10) - 6pt win

3:10 Kempton

Riverside Theatre (11/2) - 3pt win

0.50pt Reverse Forecast with Long Run (Total Stake = 1pt)

2:35 Kempton

Cinders and Ashes(5/1) - 3pt win

More selections and write ups to follow

Today's selection

3:30 Thurles - It's HighTime (5/1) - 3pt win

2:25 Lingfield

ShadowGate (10/3) - 3pt win

Today's selection

Due to the fact that I have to do some last minute shopping there will be no write up today.

12:55 - De La Bech (3/1) - 3pt win

Today's Selection

3:40 Ascot  - Tiqris (5/1) - 3pt win

The reason for this selection are as follows;

1. Tiqris has the pedigree of a horse which is bred to be well built and fast. The horse's Dam was Calamintha who was related to some nice duel performers including; Son of Flicka and Calomeria (both Class 1 winners). The Dam herself was a smart performer and won 5 times during her career. If you go further back into Calamintha's lineage you hit the likes of Sesame and Celeric who were two of the best middle distance turf performers in the 90's. From this analysis it is evident that the Dam's influence on the Tiqris should have provided him with plenty of speed and that is key when looking for potential bumper winners.

Obviously the Dam is only one half of a horse's bloodstock and although in my opinion its the more prominent half, its always important to see what the Sire brings to the table. In the case of Tiqris, his Sire is Midnight Legend and he happens to be a favourite of mine. Although he is not as prolific as some of the more well know jumps sires, ML's stock is always solid and he has a very good strike rate with his NH progeny (468 runners, 116 wins 35%). His progeny are usually blessed with a high cruising speeds which makes them well suited to tracks such as Ascot. In fact backing the ML's progeny blind at Ascot in NH races in the past few seasons would have returned a substantial profit (+50.25 - 26runs 9 wins). Although I wouldn't usually associate this particular Sire with mud lovers, I was surprised to find that he actually maintains a solid strike rate with his progeny when the ground is officially described as heavy. All things considered, if I was looking to invest in a NH horse to run in a bumper at Ascot and I only had bloodstock to go on, Tiqris would be the one I brought. The heavy ground is clearly not ideal given the horse's speed but I'm confident he will handle it ok.

2. Tiqris is not a newcomer to racing as he had a previous start under rules earlier this year when he ran in a bumper over 17f on GS at Chepstow. He went off at 17/2 that day for Charlie Brooks and finished 2nd after staying on very strongly in the final furlong. The horse first past the post that day was Irish Buccaneer who is very highly thought of in the Hobbs yard and therefore it came as no surprise that when Brooks sent Tiqris to the sales, Mr Brookhouse snapped him up for the handsome price of £90,000. Now at this point it's probably necessary to look at the owners profile as it's very informative. Mr Brookhouse is a very well known and respected owner in both the turf and NH scenes. Over the years he has had a few nice NH horses and on the whole has maintained profit and a solid strike rate since entering the horse racing world. The majority of his horses have been trained by David Pipe, however he does have a small string at the Hobb's yard and the important thing to note, is that he buys bumper horses and the best of them usually end up with Hobbs. As a result Richard Johnson has a 67% win rate when riding for the owner under this code.

3. Over the years Philip has been a trainer to follow in bumpers and although his stats weren't as impressive last year he still knows how to win a NHF race and it's always very dangerous to discard his runners. At the current time he is in fine form and its safe to say that he would have had a few candidates for this race at the start of the month. The fact that he opted to throw in Tiqris, who has been the subject of some very positive gallop/stable reports, tells you everything you need to know about the horses potential. Obviously it's extremely difficult to gauge how a horse will perform after 200 days+ away from the track, in testing conditions, against decent horses but I have every confidence in his ability to get the job done.

4. Do not be tricked into believing that the Pipe horse is unbeatable because he won his bumper by 18 lengths. The fact is that it was a very weak race, he didn't even head the market, I have seen no mention of the horse in any stable or gallop reports and his pedigree is average. At anything short of 2/1 this horse is a liability and is readily opposed. The Henderson horse is interesting but he would have to be very smart to win this on debut and the rest of the horse's going to post look slightly out of their depth. If I was to voice an e/w alternative to my selection then it would be Boss in Boots (33/1) but the trainers form and the horses well being would definitely make it a risky bet.

So, a slightly lengthy post but it should tell my readers everything they need to know about my selection. As always, it will have all been a pointless exercise if the horse doesn't win but with every word I write, my confidence in the selection grows and if the horse is match fit on his reappearance, then in my opinion, he wins.

Best of luck if you join me for the ride again.
   

Today's Selection

3:40 Towcester - Tonvadosa (3/1)  - 6pt Max Win

The reasons for my selection and confidence are as follows;

1. This horse is impeccably bred, her Dam, Sleepless Eye, was a half sister to 4 winners including Wee Robbie, Isn't That Lucky and Monkey Kingdom who were all bumper winners. Her Dam's Sire was Supreme Leader who is a top class jumps Sire and Tonvadosa herself was sired by Flemensfirth who in my opinion is responsible for some of the best NH horses in the last few years. This filly has the pedigree of a horse which should be better than average and she should also mature quicker than most which is a valuable commodity in these filly/mares bumpers.  

2. The horse is trained by Donald McCain and the informed readers  of my blog will be fully aware of how dangerous he is in this discipline. In the last two seasons alone he has been operating at a 22% win rate in bumpers and his place rate is even more impressive. In the last 14 days he has sent out 40 runners and achieved 9 wins for a 23% strike rate and in the month of December he is currently operating at a 30% win percentage. Interestingly though, McCain actually has an average strike rate at Towcester and that would be a slight concern but a similar comment would apply to most of the trainers represented today.  

3. Another really interesting thing about this horse is it's owners. Dominic Burke is one of the founders of Whitley Stud, he is also the director of Newbury racecourse and a CEO of one of the World's largest insurance brokers. At the current time I believe he has 2 national hunt horses in training with Jonjo (Wild Rhubarb and Amber Cloud). Over the last few seasons Mr Burke's NH horses have operated at a very impressive strike rate of 37.5% and therefore it's safe to say that he is a very shrewd operator.  

The other shareholder in the horse is Tony Meehan and he is another owner who has had plenty of success with his small but powerful string of horse's. Tony's strike rate is very similar to his partners; he has achieved a 31% win rate in recent seasons, he has a 50% strike rate at Towcester, a 50% strike rate in bumpers (3 from 6) and a 33% strike rate when employing Jason Maguire (4 from 12).  Both of these two men know how to own a winner and more importantly they know what they have to do to enhance a horse's sale price and that is very important when you're looking at potential Broodmares.  

4. There is no getting away from the fact that this is a very weak bumper. Of the horses represented very few of them hold appealing profiles from a breeding/form perspective. The form of Agent Fedora's race looks very suspect  and in my opinion you can always oppose a penalty runner in a bumper. Bobble Boru is interesting given her trainers solid record at the track. The booking of Sam Thomas also catches the eye as he has a good record for the owner but the horse's pedigree is very average and she was unsold at the sales which is always a concern. Lilly Brook clearly has room for improvement and it's interesting to note that she was much shorter in the betting than Fine Moment and Cabaret Girl when making her debut at Warwick last month. I still feel that the horse lacks the pace to win a bumper though and for that reason I believe she can be over looked even in today's conditions. The only other horse who can possibly be considered is Sweet Like You and if I was going to oppose my selection this would be the horse I picked. She was far from disgraced in mixed sex company on debut and he pedigree suggests that she may just be capable of winning a bumper. The trainers current form is obviously a major negative though as is the fact that she's not certain to like the ground.  

So, there you have it, an all encompassing review of the race and detailed explanation as to why I am so confident of Tonvadosa's chances today. The proof will as always be in the pudding though and this will have all been a waste of time if the horse doesn't win. Given the nature of her connections the performance in the market over the next few hours will be a key indicator of the horse's chances and some may want to wait and see whether she is the subject of a move. Having already backed her myself, I'm strapped in and ready for the ride to begin. Who's coming with me?"

Today's Selection

3:45 Ludlow - Little Pop (9/2) - 3pt win

Big Word For Tomorrow

4:55 Kempton -Moorhouse Lad (7/1) - 3pt win -this will hopefully be an early Christmas present for the readers and the horse is expected to win. For those who prefer to air on the side of caution, there is plenty of ew value.

Today's Selections

3:55 Wolverhampton - Gabrial's King (3/1)  - 3pt win
4:25 Wolverhampton - Gabrial the Boss (4/1) - 3pt win

1:00 Lingfield

NOT BY CHOICE (9/1)  -3PT WIN (INFO)

Today's Selection

12:30 Lingfield - Buxton (7/1) - 3pt win & Jackie Love (14/1) - 1pt e/w

Also a 0.50pt Reverse Forecast (Total Stake 1pt)

Today's Selections

1:10 Lingfield - Billy Red (5/1) - 3pt win
1:20 Mussel - Freddy Brown (12/1) -1pt e/w
2:00 Fakenham - Frontier Spirit (7/2) - 3pt win
2:10 Lingfield - Hill Street (7/2) - 3pt win

3:40 Sandown

Golan Way (4/1) - 6pt win

Today's Selections

I have to apologise for the terrible run of form recently, for one reason or another my mind hasn't really been on the game and my profit has been affected as a result. Despite that, I settled down last night with a stiff drink and my laptop and set about looking through today's cards in the hope of finding some decent betting prospects. After a few hours of deliberation I did just that and with two of today's bets also featuring on my horses to follow list I am confident of a really good day.


12:40 Sandown - Another Sensation (10/3) - 3pt win - Now this is a horse which I've heard some very positive reports about and there is no doubt that the form of some of his runs in France looks promising in the context of today's race. I'm always a bit suspect of backing these particular connections as you never really know what kind of horse will show up on the day but Jonjo has been in stunning form recently and this may well be the time to catch his horse's. The nature of the course should be in the horse's favour as he likes to race prominently or lead and his pedigree and past performances suggest that the ground will not be an issue. With plenty in his favour and with the other horse's at the head of the market carrying penalties, I think this horse may have been found a perfect opportunity to make a winning start. (Horse To Follow)

1:10 Sandown - Sustainability (10/3) - 3pt win - A very interesting race and it was difficult for me to choose between this horse and Tanks For Coming but in the end I decided to side with the horse who I believe is best suited by today's conditions and that is definitely Sustainability. The horse's record on soft ground is very good and although he was only rated at 116 over hurdles, he has always been a horse who would improve significantly once sent chasing and I think he may just have enough to see off the likes of the Henderson and Vaughan horses who may struggle for varying reasons today.

1:45 Sandown - UP and Go (7/2) - 3pt win -  This horse is no 1 on my horses to follow list this season and quite simply, in my opinion, he will not be beaten today. If my recent form had been better then this would have been a max bet but I will wait until I have a few winners before placing any more double stake bets. (horse to follow)

Today's Selection

2:55 - Alaskan Bullet (4/1) - 3pt win

Today's Selection

12:30 Folkstone - Dom Lukka (4/1) - 6pt win - Firstly, I just want to confirm that the level of the stake is due to the fact that this is my only bet today. Despite that, I think this horse has a real chance of winning what looks to be a very weak race. The track is going to suit him down to the ground as will the soft conditions and he has shown gradual improvement in his two starts in this country. Given his trainers current form and Fehily's strike rate at the track, I think this horse has all the makings of a winner and the price of 4/1 looks very generous.

Kempton Tips

3:20 - El Buen Turista (7/2) - 3pt win
3:50 - Handiwork (14/1) - 1pt e/w
4:20 - Storm Runner (4/1) - 3pt win

Today's Info Selection

3:40 Plumpton - Massini Lotto (5/2) - 6pt win (info)

0.50 Reverse Forecast with Kings Palace (1pt Total Stake)

More bets to follow.

1:25 Newbury

Global Power (8/1) - 1pt ew
Seven Wood (12/1) - 1pt ew

12:50

Ma Filleule (7/4)  -3pt win