Today's Selection

3:40 Towcester - Tonvadosa (3/1)  - 6pt Max Win

The reasons for my selection and confidence are as follows;

1. This horse is impeccably bred, her Dam, Sleepless Eye, was a half sister to 4 winners including Wee Robbie, Isn't That Lucky and Monkey Kingdom who were all bumper winners. Her Dam's Sire was Supreme Leader who is a top class jumps Sire and Tonvadosa herself was sired by Flemensfirth who in my opinion is responsible for some of the best NH horses in the last few years. This filly has the pedigree of a horse which should be better than average and she should also mature quicker than most which is a valuable commodity in these filly/mares bumpers.  

2. The horse is trained by Donald McCain and the informed readers  of my blog will be fully aware of how dangerous he is in this discipline. In the last two seasons alone he has been operating at a 22% win rate in bumpers and his place rate is even more impressive. In the last 14 days he has sent out 40 runners and achieved 9 wins for a 23% strike rate and in the month of December he is currently operating at a 30% win percentage. Interestingly though, McCain actually has an average strike rate at Towcester and that would be a slight concern but a similar comment would apply to most of the trainers represented today.  

3. Another really interesting thing about this horse is it's owners. Dominic Burke is one of the founders of Whitley Stud, he is also the director of Newbury racecourse and a CEO of one of the World's largest insurance brokers. At the current time I believe he has 2 national hunt horses in training with Jonjo (Wild Rhubarb and Amber Cloud). Over the last few seasons Mr Burke's NH horses have operated at a very impressive strike rate of 37.5% and therefore it's safe to say that he is a very shrewd operator.  

The other shareholder in the horse is Tony Meehan and he is another owner who has had plenty of success with his small but powerful string of horse's. Tony's strike rate is very similar to his partners; he has achieved a 31% win rate in recent seasons, he has a 50% strike rate at Towcester, a 50% strike rate in bumpers (3 from 6) and a 33% strike rate when employing Jason Maguire (4 from 12).  Both of these two men know how to own a winner and more importantly they know what they have to do to enhance a horse's sale price and that is very important when you're looking at potential Broodmares.  

4. There is no getting away from the fact that this is a very weak bumper. Of the horses represented very few of them hold appealing profiles from a breeding/form perspective. The form of Agent Fedora's race looks very suspect  and in my opinion you can always oppose a penalty runner in a bumper. Bobble Boru is interesting given her trainers solid record at the track. The booking of Sam Thomas also catches the eye as he has a good record for the owner but the horse's pedigree is very average and she was unsold at the sales which is always a concern. Lilly Brook clearly has room for improvement and it's interesting to note that she was much shorter in the betting than Fine Moment and Cabaret Girl when making her debut at Warwick last month. I still feel that the horse lacks the pace to win a bumper though and for that reason I believe she can be over looked even in today's conditions. The only other horse who can possibly be considered is Sweet Like You and if I was going to oppose my selection this would be the horse I picked. She was far from disgraced in mixed sex company on debut and he pedigree suggests that she may just be capable of winning a bumper. The trainers current form is obviously a major negative though as is the fact that she's not certain to like the ground.  

So, there you have it, an all encompassing review of the race and detailed explanation as to why I am so confident of Tonvadosa's chances today. The proof will as always be in the pudding though and this will have all been a waste of time if the horse doesn't win. Given the nature of her connections the performance in the market over the next few hours will be a key indicator of the horse's chances and some may want to wait and see whether she is the subject of a move. Having already backed her myself, I'm strapped in and ready for the ride to begin. Who's coming with me?"