Today's Selection

3:40 Ascot  - Tiqris (5/1) - 3pt win

The reason for this selection are as follows;

1. Tiqris has the pedigree of a horse which is bred to be well built and fast. The horse's Dam was Calamintha who was related to some nice duel performers including; Son of Flicka and Calomeria (both Class 1 winners). The Dam herself was a smart performer and won 5 times during her career. If you go further back into Calamintha's lineage you hit the likes of Sesame and Celeric who were two of the best middle distance turf performers in the 90's. From this analysis it is evident that the Dam's influence on the Tiqris should have provided him with plenty of speed and that is key when looking for potential bumper winners.

Obviously the Dam is only one half of a horse's bloodstock and although in my opinion its the more prominent half, its always important to see what the Sire brings to the table. In the case of Tiqris, his Sire is Midnight Legend and he happens to be a favourite of mine. Although he is not as prolific as some of the more well know jumps sires, ML's stock is always solid and he has a very good strike rate with his NH progeny (468 runners, 116 wins 35%). His progeny are usually blessed with a high cruising speeds which makes them well suited to tracks such as Ascot. In fact backing the ML's progeny blind at Ascot in NH races in the past few seasons would have returned a substantial profit (+50.25 - 26runs 9 wins). Although I wouldn't usually associate this particular Sire with mud lovers, I was surprised to find that he actually maintains a solid strike rate with his progeny when the ground is officially described as heavy. All things considered, if I was looking to invest in a NH horse to run in a bumper at Ascot and I only had bloodstock to go on, Tiqris would be the one I brought. The heavy ground is clearly not ideal given the horse's speed but I'm confident he will handle it ok.

2. Tiqris is not a newcomer to racing as he had a previous start under rules earlier this year when he ran in a bumper over 17f on GS at Chepstow. He went off at 17/2 that day for Charlie Brooks and finished 2nd after staying on very strongly in the final furlong. The horse first past the post that day was Irish Buccaneer who is very highly thought of in the Hobbs yard and therefore it came as no surprise that when Brooks sent Tiqris to the sales, Mr Brookhouse snapped him up for the handsome price of £90,000. Now at this point it's probably necessary to look at the owners profile as it's very informative. Mr Brookhouse is a very well known and respected owner in both the turf and NH scenes. Over the years he has had a few nice NH horses and on the whole has maintained profit and a solid strike rate since entering the horse racing world. The majority of his horses have been trained by David Pipe, however he does have a small string at the Hobb's yard and the important thing to note, is that he buys bumper horses and the best of them usually end up with Hobbs. As a result Richard Johnson has a 67% win rate when riding for the owner under this code.

3. Over the years Philip has been a trainer to follow in bumpers and although his stats weren't as impressive last year he still knows how to win a NHF race and it's always very dangerous to discard his runners. At the current time he is in fine form and its safe to say that he would have had a few candidates for this race at the start of the month. The fact that he opted to throw in Tiqris, who has been the subject of some very positive gallop/stable reports, tells you everything you need to know about the horses potential. Obviously it's extremely difficult to gauge how a horse will perform after 200 days+ away from the track, in testing conditions, against decent horses but I have every confidence in his ability to get the job done.

4. Do not be tricked into believing that the Pipe horse is unbeatable because he won his bumper by 18 lengths. The fact is that it was a very weak race, he didn't even head the market, I have seen no mention of the horse in any stable or gallop reports and his pedigree is average. At anything short of 2/1 this horse is a liability and is readily opposed. The Henderson horse is interesting but he would have to be very smart to win this on debut and the rest of the horse's going to post look slightly out of their depth. If I was to voice an e/w alternative to my selection then it would be Boss in Boots (33/1) but the trainers form and the horses well being would definitely make it a risky bet.

So, a slightly lengthy post but it should tell my readers everything they need to know about my selection. As always, it will have all been a pointless exercise if the horse doesn't win but with every word I write, my confidence in the selection grows and if the horse is match fit on his reappearance, then in my opinion, he wins.

Best of luck if you join me for the ride again.