3:15 Ludlow - Glorious Twelfth (13/8) - 3pt win - This horse was on my to follow list this season and to date she has progressed nicely. She made her debut in a novices event a Newbury and went down by two lengths to Dancetilmidnight who subsequently went off as a hot favourite in a decent listed mares race. On GT's next outing she showed the benefit of that experience and despite jumping erratically at times, she won convincingly. As a result of those performances, she has been awarded an OR of 120 and personally I think she's more than capable of progressing past that mark given the quality of her pedigree. Henderson is a trainer who really knows how to get the best out of his mares and there is no doubt that the Kelvin Hughes breeding operation will be looking to win some high quality races with Glorious Twelfth before sending her out as a broodmare.
As far as the opposition is concerned, Mickie clearly sets the standard but it would appear that Tinkler has deserted her and on some collateral form lines GT should have the beating of her. Highland Retreat is an interesting sort for the inform Harry Fry, especially as she's been running in mixed sex comapany, but I think today's trip will probably be on the shortside for her as she's looked like an out and out stayer in her previous races. The final horse of interest is All Annalena who has been well supported in the last few hours. On her recent form she may be up against it today but I'm always wary of horses with profiles like hers because if her connections have found the key to her during her 90 day break and Elsworth can settle her early on, then she is clearly very well handicapped. With that in mind I will also be placing a side bet. Side Bet = Glorious Twelfth & All Annalena - 0.50pt Reverse Forecast.
3:50 Ludlow - Grandioso (9/4) - 3pt win - Like GT this horse also featured on my to follow list and he has improved significant since being sent over fences. My personal feeling is that he has plenty of room for improvement in these types of races as the majority of his rivals are exposed and in poor form. Nicholls has shown over the years that he can always pull out a little bit more and this horse was purchased with chasing in mind. On collateral form lines he should have the beating of both Cootehill, Valmari and Cadoudlas and therefore the only real danger I can see is Siberian Tiger who should really appreciate the drop back in trip. Evan Williams is a trainer who targets Ludlow to good effect but his form has been poor recently and I would have to see some significant market support before I could justify backing him and for that reason Grandioso looks like a worthy favourite and I strongly believe that his current price represents great value.
6:35 Kempton - Golden Causeway (Evens) - 3pt win - GC was a horse which showed plenty at home last season but was constantly in season and never really showed what she was capable of. I don't like backing filly's on the AW but she is bred to appreciate the surface, she's clearly a lot better than her current mark of 67, the yard is in good form and it looks like a pretty weak maiden. I was very close to max betting this one but given Botti's record when fitting a first time tongue tie, I have a sneaky feeling that we might see some significant improvement from the well bred Wakeup Little Suzy.
As well as the win bets above I will also be placing a 1pt win treble.
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