Key Trends
- The last 14 winners were officially rated no higher than 143 (no 150+ winners since 1983)
- all winners since 1997 have been aged between 7 and 10
- No winner fell, unseat or failed to complete LTO
- The last 15 winners all ran their prep race over at least 2m 4f
- Irish bred horses have been responsible for 12 of the last 15 wins
- 11 of the last 15 winners had never won at the track
- All of the last 15 winners had run at least 3 times left handed under all codes.
In any handicap trends are important but at the same time you shouldn't completely discount a horse just because he fails to fit them. That being said, the trends in respect of official ratings, LTO performances and previous runs left handed, should be given careful consideration.
Horses to consider
For me there are a couple of horses that clearly stand-out in this race for a whole host of reasons and I will be dealing with them each separately below.
The first horse of note in this race has to be Shutthefrontdoor for Jonjo and JP McManus. The horse will be running in a handicap for a first time over fences having been awarded a mark of 146 and my personal feeling is that the handicapper may have given him a chance. It's unusual to look at a handicap debutant with a mark of 146 and reach that conclusion but looking back at the horses form, you quickly get the feeling that it's pretty strong. He has positive lines with likes of Sam Winner, Ardkilly Witness, Le Bec, African Gold and Beeves to name but a few and there is no doubt that he's bred to improve by upwards of 10lb over fences. I'm sure many punters will be put off by his mark in light of the 143 rule and the fact that he was well beaten on his last start but my advice would be to rule a line through that run as Jonjo had a terrible time in December with his chasers (1 win from 28 runners). The mark is a slight concern in light of the trends but we know the horse stays, we know he handles the track and he's trained and owned by connections that target this race. At 11-0st it's also likely that AP will take the ride and I think this horse has a rock solid chance. I would however take advantage of the non-runner offers as Jonjo hasn't confirmed where he will be heading yet.
The next horse to consider is another Jonjo horse in the shape of Holywell. This horse is clearly progressive and like the previous horse, he makes his handicap debut in the race. Although Holywell deserves to take his place in the lineup, his jumping leaves plenty to be desired and for me he's way too risky to be having a bet in such a competitive handicap.
Outside of Jonjo's yard, JP also has Cause of Causes entered for the race. COC is a well built, 6 year old gelding out of Dynaformer and he's trained by Gordon Elliot. Unlike the first two horses highlighted, COC goes into the race with a mark under the 143 threshold (140) and put in a cracking performance last time out to go down by a short head in a very competitive handicap at Leopardstown. I know plenty of people have been talking about this horse in recent weeks but personally, I think the hype outweighs the horse's true ability. In my opinion, he's had plenty of opportunities to win at the top level, he doesn't appear to be at his best over 3 miles and most importantly, I think you'd have to be a very good horse to win this kind of race as a 6 year old. I wouldn't be surprised if he was to run well but he's not my idea of a decent bet.
Another horse that has been well touted in recent weeks is, Many Clouds for Oliver Sherwood. Now, my personal feeling is that this horse probably has some of the best novice form around in any race let alone this one. You look back through the horses that have beaten him and you see a multitude of top class types including; Black Thunder, Just A Par, O'Faolains Boy, Up & Go, Close Touch and Gevry Chambertin. Of a mark of 145 you would have to expect the horse to be competitive on the basis of those form lines and if he was to take up his entry in this race then he would deserve considerable respect but with the JLT looking weak this year, and given how highly thought of the horse is, I think his connection will probably send him there and that's a real shame because although I don't fancy him in that race, I would have fancied him for this.
As well as Jonjo, there is another trainer that targets this race to good effect and that's Alan King and this year his strongest chance would appear to be Midnight Prayer. Unlike the horses above, MP doesn't have the strongest form in the book but because of that he has seemingly found himself on a workable mark and it's difficult to ignore a horse that has gone of as very warm favourite in each of his last 4 starts. The horse's biggest asset would appear to be his stamina and usually I would say that 3 miles would be a minimum for him these days but the pace is sure to be frantic here and that could play to his strengths. Whether he's good enough to win is uncertain but at 20/1+ he has to be a decent e/w price.
It wouldn't be right for me to review this race without giving a mention to Time For Rupert who is a personal favourite of mine and I'm over the moon to see this admirable chaser back in action and his connections deserve a great amount of praise for persevering with him. When you consider that TFR was beaten less than 10 lengths in the Gold Cup two years ago, you have to think that he's more than capable of winning a decent prize off a mark of just 138. Although the horse's form hasn't been great this season, he put in a substantially improved effort last time out and was backed as if a return to form was imminent. He finished 2nd that day to Tranquil Sea, who's a horse he really should be beating if he's to play a part in a festival handicap but one thing intrigues me and that's the fact that his connections have chosen to avoid the national in favour of a run at Cheltenham. Given the horse's prior performances at the track, it wouldn't be a surprise if he was to find a little something extra next week and if the money was to come for him in the next few days, he'd have to be taken seriously for e/w purposes.
The final horse I need to mention here is Balnaslow for Willie Mullins. I've been following this horse since his PTP days and he's always been a horse that I thought could win a big handicap one day. He's been placed with kid gloves so far this season until his last race and having backed him there, I thought I had the win in the bag until the horse slowed to a crawl coming over the last and could only finish 4th. Up until then I actually thought the horse was all about stamina and I'd earmarked the 4 miler as his intended target but that race put some doubt in my mind about his ability to stay and until he's proved he can, I just can't back him at the Festival.
Final Thoughts
In conclusion there are two horses in this race that stand out for me and they are Shutthefrontdoor and Midnight Prayer. Although the former is above the threshold as far as OR's are concerned, I think he still has a bit in hand and if McCoy does end up taking the ride, I would be very surprised to see him out of the first 4. My second pick is more conventional as far as trends are concerned and the horse has plenty of admirable qualities. Although he's not as experienced as some of his opposition, there is no doubt he's on a decent mark and if he gets round in one piece, I would expect him to play a part in the finish.
Selections:- Shuthefrontdoor (14/1) and Midnight Prayer (16/1) both e/w - both non-runner free bet with Bet Victor (great offer!)
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