As you would expect from a 4 mile novice chase, this race is a real test of stamina and jumping. Over the years it's been won by some decent types and this years renewal looks very competitive.
Unlike my previous race reviews, I'm not going to spend any significant time looking at trends, trainers stats etc because I think there are only a handful of horses that can win this race, so I will just get straight down to business and provide my thoughts on them before giving my race selection.
I'm going to start by looking at the two Nicholls runners, Black Thunder and Just A Par who are horses that I've always held in pretty high regard. There is no doubt that both are bred for these marathon trips and both deserve considerable respect. Of the two, Black Thunder clearly has to be the horse to side with as he goes into this race off the back of a decent performance at Warwick last time out when going down by two lengths to the smart Corrin Wood. Donald's horse got an easy lead that day and Jason gave the horse a good ride but over tomorrows trip, with a solid pace to aim at, I would be very confident that Black Thunder would reverse that form. For me the horse's ability to travel strongly and jump well are exactly the kind of qualities you want to look for in this race and although the trainer doesn't have a great record in the event, you have to feel that BT holds a solid e/w claim. As for, Just A Par he would appear to be one for the future and although I expect him to run a big race, he goes there off the back of a break and a wind op and that's not ideal preparation in my book He could stake a claim for a place but I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him fade out of contention late on.
The next horse on my radar is Shotgun Paddy and there is a lot to like about this horse. For me, his win in the Betfair Classic clearly sets the standard and he's another horse that should improve from the step up in trip. You don't have to be a rocket scientist to see that he has a few question-marks to answer though and if the ground was to dry out, he'd be stepping into unknown territory as he's yet to race on a good ground. Whether that would inconvenience him, I'm not sure but he's not a rock solid jumper as it is and with a strong pace and less cut, any jumping frailties he may have could be enhanced and that would be a serious problem for his backers. My general feeling on this horse is that he has a shout but any value has now gone and at 7/1 he's easy enough to over look.
Moving on, and as readers can imagine, I'm very disappointed to see both Midnight Legend and Shutthefrontdoor entered in this race having previously tipped them up for the B & H earlier on the card. I personally think that both horses would have stood a better chance in that race, especially Midnight Legend and for a whole host of reasons I'm going to have to over look them both. Needless to say, if either of them win though, I will be far from pleased.
Having reviewed the home team it's now time to switch to the Irish challengers and I'm going to start with the Tony Martin trained, Wrong Turn. I'm not going to spend any significant time assessing this horse because I'm not 100% sure he's even going to run in this race but I would advise readers to watch this horse very closely because he has to be on a lenient mark and if he gets into one of the big handicaps, I'm sure he will run well at a price.
Continuing with the Irish contenders and the horse that should be everyone's starting point for this race, Foxrock for Ted Walsh. As a punter I spend my life looking for a bit of value and it therefore seems rather strange to even be considering a horse at 4/1 in a 4 mile novice chase at the festival but my personal feeling is that this horse could be something a little special and when you consider that he's only a point or 2 shorter than Shutthefrontdoor, maybe the current price isn't too bad after all. As far as form is concerned, it's decent enough and his last two wins have been impressive. I think Walsh has always trained him with this race in mind and I'm sure there is plenty of improvement to come. The horse also has the advantage of having a top amateur in the saddle in the shape of Katie Walsh and everything about this race should suit the horse's running style. My personal feeling is that he's as solid as they come and his owner has been quick to inform the racing world that he's his NAP of the festival. I'm not sure I'd go that far and I'd like to have seen a bigger price but for me he's the most likely winner of this race and I for one will be backing him to win.
Selections
Foxrock (4/1) - Win Bet
Black Thunder (12/1) - E/W Bet
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