2:00 Newmarket - Autun (14/1) - 1pt e/w - You don't have to be a rocket scientist to figure out that the Stoute horse is going to be hard to beat in this race. His trainer is starting to hit form with his juvenile performers and Telescope has come in for significant support since the market formed. Despite that though, in my opinion, you would be a brave man to back a 4/7 shout in a maiden and for that reason, I decided to have a speculative e/w punt on Sir Henry's mount. The horse in question has a very nice pedigree and it has proven to be a bloodline which matures quickly (dam debut winner). Autun's trainer has a good strike rate newcomers and also holds a 20% win strike rate at the course with his juveniles. I would be lying if I said that Telescope wasn't the most likely winner but I'm hopeful that Autun can at least place and he may just have a little more speed than most of the horses in the line up which could come in handy if there is an even pace.
2:35 Newmarket - Authorship (8/1) - 1pt e/w - Backing the least unexposed horse in a maiden at Newmarket doesn't always work out too well but there is something about this horse's profile which really caught my eye. The first thing to note is that he won on debut beating two experienced horses who were both well regarded by their connections (Disclaimer and Lightening Launch). The second thing to note, is that he won that day despite being weak in the betting and showing obvious signs of greeness. He has subsequently been given a short break and will hopeful have developed significantly during that time. Although on jockey bookings he looks to be the trainers second string, I find it almost impossible to believe that the horse isn't capable of winning this race if his trainer want's him to and his performance in the market over the next few hours will be a key indicator.
3:40 Newmarket - Ebn Arab (5/1) - 3pt win - Now obviously most punters will be following the adverbial band wagon and lumping on the Hannon horse in light of the over night plunge which has seen the horse get smashed into a best price of 5/6. To be honest I can't blame people for doing that as the horse clearly has a great chance and rates as one of the best horses in the Hannon's powerful Juvenile string but spare a little thought for the Hill's horse. Ebn Arab was incredibly impressive on his debut and he carried plenty of stable money that day. His next race came along in a Group 3 contest at York and once again the call was passed down and I was informed to lump on, as the horse was extremely well fancied. It wasn't to be that day though as the horse failed to pick up when asked the question, leaving connections to believe that the combo of the erratic pace and the ground had worked against him. Despite that though, the three horses in front of him that day are some of the best 2yo's in the country at this time and connections have no doubt that this horse belongs in group company. With conditions to suit and only one horse to beat, Ebn Arab looks over priced at 5/1 and although the smart punter will probably air on the side of caution and back e/w, I see this bet as an investment in the horse's potential and for that reason I have taken the plunge and backed him to win.
4:50 Newmarket - Basseterre (4/1) - 3pt win - My regular readers will know that there is no love loss between Keiran Fallon and I and despite receiving a very strong word for this horse I nearly didn't place a bet due to his presence. The horse is thought to have a rock solid chance of winning this race though and for that reason I decided to give Fallon the benefit of the doubt. Basseterre was actually very well fancied to win his last race on return from a break but despite travelling strongly through the race, he failed to pick up when it really mattered and a lack of race fitness clearly took its toll. He came out of the race well though and he gets a valuable weight to age concession here. Although there has been money around for a few of the older horses (Chapter and Verse and Directorship) I still believe that this is a race which Basseterre really should be winning and if Fallon hadn't been on board this would have been a max bet.
So that completes today's turf selections however there may be a few more this evening if anything catches my eye at tonight's meeting at Wolverhampton.
Best of luck and fingers cross the rain stays away at HQ.
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