Today's Selections

I'm a bit short of time today so will be keeping my write up's brief.


1:15 Newmarket - Waterway Run (4/1) - 3pt win - If I was being sensible I would probably be avoiding this maiden as a case can be made for 5 or 6 of the runners. There is a lot to like about Waterway Run's profile though and if she steps up on her impressive effort last time out then she definitely has a favourites chance of winning the race. There is every chance that she will once again get an uncontested lead today and as the best bred horse in the race on dosage and with the uphill climb likely to suit, she should run well.


1:45 Newmarket - Thistle Bird (3/1) - 3pt win - For me this is a two horse race and although Dank has the potential to beat the favourite, I think she will really but up against it in this contest. The TS rating achieved by TB on her last run was truly exemplary and provided she is still in the same form (market suggests that she is) I would be amazed if she didn't go very close to winning this race. In my opinion 3/1 is a massive price and this was very close to being a max bet. Side Bet = 0.50pt RF - Thistle Bird and Dank (total stake 1pt).


2:20 Newmarket - Most Improved (4/1) - 3pt win - Now, I'm taking a serious punt here because this horse has been terrible on it's last couple of runs and I don't really buy into all the excuses connections have made regarding his poor run LTO. However, it's difficult to over look the fact that his form in England is solid and he seems to thrive at the course. The real key to his chances today though, will be the tactics employed by Fallon and I really hope that he ping's him out of the stalls in an attempt to make as all because the horse has looked very uncomfortable in between rivals in recent races. Due to his stamina he should have no problem stringing his opposition out early and he's very likely to get an uncontested lead as there appears to be little or no pace in the race. If Fallon doesn't do this and instead sits for a run and they crawl through the first few furlongs, I will be backing Sovereign Debt in running, because the turn of foot he has exhibited off a slow pace in previous races is devastating. All things considered, I believe I will know my fate within a minute of the race starting.


2:55 Newmarket - Roz (12/1) - 1pt e/w - The first thing to note here is that I would not put anyone off backing the favourite in this race as I think she is an incredibly talented individual but her frame isn't particularly imposing and I worry that this race may just come too soon for her. With that in mind its a straight shooting match between Roz and Ollie Olga and my slight preference due to the speed angle in the race is Roz, who I believe will attempt to make all as she did last time out. In my experience if a horse gets a few lengths on you coming up that hill, it's difficult to get it back and I'm hoping Crowley gives the horse a solid ride.


9:15 Wolverhampton - Joyful Spirit (15/8) - 6pt win - I usually try to avoid Fillies on the AW like the plague but I've heard that this horse is extremely well fancied today and is fully expected to land a substantial gamble. It's not often that I max bet an info bet outside of the Hill's yard but this one has all the makings of a serious plunge horse.