Today's Selections

2:20 Wolves - Levi Drapper (4/1) - 3pt win - This is an intriguing entry from the Fanshawe camp and it's one which I'm struggling to get my head around.

The horse in question has been running consistently over the last few weeks on the AW at a variety of distances in excess of 7 furlongs. He was awarded an opening mark of 79 but has looked capable of winning a race on the AW off a mark in the low 70's. Despite his consistency, the handicapper viewed his last performance in a negative light and he runs in maiden company today with a mark of 69 but the interesting thing is that his trainer has taken the decision to drop him back in trip to 6 furlongs.

At first glance it is difficult to see the logic behind the decision to drop the horse back in trip as he hasn't exhibited a lightening turn of foot in the past and that's a major disadvantage given his tendency to be held up during his races. That being said, the horse has been competitive in his last few races and therefore I don't believe that today's race is a case of handicap manipulation and that's reiterated by the fact that the horse holds an entry at the track in three days time. His opposition are largely unexposed but average and all but one, will be experiencing the track for the first time. So Levi will definitely have an edge of his competition there. The million dollar question though is can he win over 6f and in my personal opinion, having looked at the race in great detail, is that he most definitely can.

On the basis of his pedigree the horse was designed to be a sprinter, he's a Rock of Gilbraltar colt out of a Sharpo mare and is closely related to Lother Stakes winner Soar and is also a half brother to Feet So Fast who was a smart sprint handicapper. His dosage is heavily weighted in favour of speed over stamina and he features some key sprint sires/mares on both sides of his bloodline. His speed ratings in his race to date have also been above average and although recorded at longer trips, he has a high cruising speed which will help him today.

What really intrigues me though is whether Fanshawe instructs Hayley to get the horse to the front rather than hold him up off the pace. Like most maidens at the course the early pace is likely to be disjointed and that will obviously prejudice my selection. With that in mind and given Levi's familiarity with a longer trip, I would be much more comfortable as the owner, if my horse was given a ride from the front and that's exactly what I expect him to do. If those tactics are employed (informed prediction only), then I think this horse has a real live wire chance of winning this race and with positive form in the book against Fast Finian (strongly fancied to take a race later on the card), a win in this one for Levi Drapper would frank that form and make me even more confident about my info bet later in the day.

Sorry that the write up is a bit longer than normal, I got slightly carried away with this one.


3:20 Sedgefield - Five out of Five (8/1) - 1pt e/w - I will keep this write up brief after the essay above but I do fancy this horse in what is a very weak contest. The majority of the field are average at best but Five out of Five actually has a couple of wins under his belt and this looks like a prime opportunity for connections to revert the horse to front running tactics. There is a lack of pace in the race and the finish at the track favours those who can distance themselves from the field. Moloney has a solid strike rate at the track as does his trainer and with the horses mark looking more than workable, he could go very close if the predicted tactics are employed.

5:20 Sedgefield - The Wicked Kipper (11/2) - 3pt win - This is a NHF system qualifier and I expect it to go very close today. The current price looks very generous and I would be amazed if this horse wasn't in the mix at the finish.