Sticking to the jumps meetings again today and the card at Exeter really is top notch and should give us an indication of what's to come later in the year. At the start of every NH Season I compose my list of horses to follow and today sees no fewer than 8 competing at Exeter; Bold Henry, Johns Spirit, Module, Pantoxa, Rebel Rebelion, Melodic Rendezvous, Gullinbursti and Rocky Creek. Obviously I can't back them all, especially as 4 line up in the same race, but I will be backing one or two.
3:10 Exeter - Bold Henry (3/1) - 3pt win - I have to say that I'm slightly surprised to see that this horse has been sent over fences straight away as it was my understanding that he would have a few hurdles entries to refresh him. He has always been viewed as a potentially smart chaser and the fact that Hobbs has taken the decision to throw him straight into a race like this suggests to me that he has been showing up very well at home. As Henry is owed by JP it is no surprise to see McCoy take the ride but the weight of early money for the horse on the exchanges is obviously interesting given his connections especially when you consider the strength of the race. He has previous course experience and is perfectly comfortable in a variety of conditions and with the yard already in fine form, I think this horse will take a world of beating today.
4:35 Tipperary - Expanding Universe (2/1) - 3pt win - If bumper racing was all about breeding then this horse would be winning this race by a country mile. This gelding is out of Galileo and a Darshaan mare and is actually bred to be pretty smart on the flat. Over the years we have seen Weld excel with horses of this type and I have a feeling that this one may have a smart future in front of him. To date he has only seen on the race course once and performed with credit in a NHF race over 2m 4f (finished 4th). He looked to be in need of the run that day and there was no doubt that his stamina was stretched slightly by the trip. Weld has taken the decision to drop him back to 2 miles today and with the early pace in the race sure to be slow, this horse's turn of foot could have the rest of the field treading water. Once again my money maker R P heads to the meeting just for one ride and with the only real danger looking to be the Meade horse, I expect it to be another successful day for him and the effervescent Weld. Side Bet = 0.50pt Reverse Forecast - Expanding Universe and Curley Bill (Total Stake 1pt)
4:40 Exeter - Rocky Creek (6/5) - 6pt Max Bet - Now this is probably a brave decision on my part as this does look like a nice little race but this horse has been the subject of some extremely positive reports and is considered to be a real live contender for some big festival meetings this year. As a winning pointer he has always been considered to be a chasing prospect but still performed with great credit over hurdles last year. His best performance came in the Albert Bartlett Novices when he readily fended off Gullinbursti to win the race in fine style. That form of that event looks rock solid and I can see very few negatives in this horses profile as far as backing him in today's race is concerned. As we roll into November the Nicholls yard is about to explode into action and I have no doubt that this one will be fully wound up for today's race.
5:10 Exeter - Grande Le Victoire (13/8) - 3pt win - Not the greatest of bumpers and it should prove to be a formality for Grande. Although he is unlikely to be anything above average in the long run, his pedigree is superior to the majority of his opposition and his Sire, Kapgrande, may just be one to watch out for over then next few months as his stock appears to be on the rise. I don't know too much about his Dam's family but my general feeling is that it should be ok and with Hobb's targeting bumpers to good effect, I would expect this one to win with ease under Johnson.
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