The Champion Hurdle

Unlike the Arkle and the Supreme Novices, I think this years Champion Hurdle is one of the most competitive renewals for a long time and that's reflected in the market. I'm not convinced there is any real value to be had, which is unfortunate, and realistically I think it's probably a race to enjoy as a spectacle rather than a betting opportunity but that hasn't stopped me from at least trying to find the winner.

Clearly the starting point for this years renewal has to be the favourite, Hurricane Fly. With 18 Grade 1 wins to his name there is absolutely no doubt that this horse will go down in history as one of the all time greats and he's already added 3 more wins to his tally this season. The first of those wins came in Morgiana Hurdle at Punchestown, where he went of as a 1/16 shot but put in an average performance to beat Marito by just over a length, recording an RPR of 154 in the process. Willie was quick to criticise the horses performance that day, and rightly so, because the RPR recorded was significantly less than the horse had achieved when winning the same race a year earlier (RPR of 169).

Following his run in the Morgiana, Hurricane Fly went to post in the Ryanair Hurdle where he took on a field of some of Ireland's most promising young hurdlers including, Our Conor and Jekzi. The race that day was a very tactical affair but Ruby used the horse's tactical speed to good effect and he dispatched his opposition with consummate ease. The performances of Our Conor and Jezki can both be upgraded though, as Jezki was never going to come out on top on a sprint to the finish and Our Conor was fully entitled to need the run. It is worth noting that despite winning, HF still fell well short of the RPR he had recorded in the same race last year and he went off odds against for the first time since 2010.

The horse's final prep run came in the Irish Champion Hurdle and both Our Conor and Jezki re-opposed him. Despite the change in scenery, a decent race time and softer ground, Hurricane Fly emphatically confirmed the form of the Ryanair and once again put clear daylight between himself and last years Triumph winner, Our Conor. After the race, Willie confirmed that his horse had been having a few troubles at home and for the first time in a while he wasn't 100% confident going into a race with the Fly. Now, obviously you can't believe everything that trainers say because a lot of it is smoke and mirrors but looking at the horse's RPR's this season and comparing the respective performances of Our Conor and Jezki, you have to question just how strong the 2 mile division really is in Ireland. My personal feeling is that Our Conor lacks the experience to win a Champion Hurdle and Jezki probably falls short of what's required to be top notch over 2 miles, even if it is up the Cheltenham hill. Hurricane Fly is a horse that I have an incredible amount of respect for but I'm just not sure he's as good as he was and he will be facing two horses who's ability far exceed anything he encountered last year.

Having seemingly dismissed the Irish challengers the first English trained horse I'm going to look at is My Tent Or Yours. This horse will always hold a place in my heart because he won me a small fortune when winning the Betfair Hurdle last year. From day one this horse has been touted by the yard as a future Champion Hurdler and it's not hard to see why. His cruising speed is high, he stays well, jumps well and has continued his progression by adding 3 wins to his belt so far this season at a time when his trainer has been struggling.

My Tent made his seasonal reappearance in the Fighting Fifth and put in one of the best performances of his career to win by 3 lengths. Despite the nature of his win, the horse still pulled hard in the early part of the race and was a bit cumbersome at one or two of his hurdles, but the race time was decent enough and the opposition was classy enough to suggest that it was a decent effort first time up ( RPR of 155).

Following his performance in the Fighting Fifth, Nicky sent the horse to Kempton for the Christmas Hurdle and we finally got to see him take on The New One again. Despite the fact that I think Nigel's horse is top notch, I was very confident that MTOY would win that day because he seemingly had everything in his favour. The race was set up to turn into a sprint and the nature of the track and the state of the ground was always going to play into the hands of Tony McCoy. As it turned out, I was proved to be correct but the margin of victory was slim and I personally felt that the TNO emerged with real credit and if anything his performance was more impressive than the winners (RPR ratings of 169).

My Tents final prep race for the Champion Hurdle came in a jumpers bumper at Kempton and this is where I completely part company with the horse. There has been much discussion about the horse's winning time, intended targets, homework etc but for me a prep race in a jumpers bumper is not a whole lot better than a race course gallop and when you look at the records of horses that went to the festival in a similar position, it doesn't make for pleasant reading.

There is no doubt that this horse is a class act, he's already proven that on numerous occasions but for me he's all about speed and if I know that, every trainer knows that and I strongly believe that's why Mullins still has Un De Sceaux in the race because he intends to ride the finish out of MTOY and turn this into a real test. If that proves to be the case then I just can't see the horse winning and for me, I don't see him beating The New One at Cheltenham in any race, over any distance anyway.

Having looked at the likes of Our Conor, Hurricane Fly, Jezki and My Tent of Yours, it's apparent to me that there is one horse in this race that seemingly holds all the cards and that's Nigel's stable star, The New One. 

Looking back through the archives, you quickly see that winners of the Neptune have performed very well in this race over the years and Nigel Twiston-Davis was quick to inform punters immediately after winning that race last year that the Champion Hurdle would be TNO intended target for this season and you can definitely see why. The horse has an extremely potent mix of speed and stamina and is incredibly versatile when it comes to race tactics. Both his trainer and jockey are of the opinion that he needs a decent even pace to aim at but don't be fooled, this horse is lightening quick.

Prior to his engagement in the Champion Hurdle, The New One has had 3 races so far this season and his only loss came when encountering MTOY (I've already review that race above). His win prior to that in the, International Hurdle was impressive and the way he left Zarkander for dead after the last was very difficult to ignore. The Nicholls horse may not be top, top notch but he's a really solid marker and I know Nigel was absolutely chuffed with the performance. For reasons previously mentioned, the horse lost nothing in defeat when going down by under a length to MTOY at Kempton either and for me he comes into this race as the only horse that has the talent to overhaul Hurricane Fly in a truly run race at the course. Given that the two are both available at 3/1, I would always side with potential and with the Irish form looking weak, I think The New One has to hold a favourites chance. The only thing that would change my opinion, would be if Willie was to pull Un De Sceaux because the prospect of a slowly run race would have to tip the scale in favour of My Tent Of Yours, irrespective of the fact that he's had his prep run on the AW.

Conclusion

Advised Bet - The New One (3/1) - Win Bet 

Thank you for reading and please take advantage of some of our betting offers. William Hill will also be supplying us with a variety of special Festival bonuses over the next few days so keep your eyes posted for them. I'm also in the process of completing my review of the opening day's handicap races and I'm hopeful they will be up first thing tomorrow morning.

The Arkle

This year’s Arkle look extremely competitive and it’s not going to be an easy puzzle to solve. In recent times the home team has dominated the race but the Irish appear to be mob handed this year and there are some very interesting contenders making the trip. As with the Supreme I will be approaching the race from a value perspective so I'm going to discard the favourite Champagne Fever and I'm also working under the assumption that Felix Yonger will be heading to the JLT.

The Race Stats

Although there are a few key trends in this particular race, I'm minded to put the majority of them to one side this year as it doesn't look like a conventional renewal of the race. That being said, there are a few stats below that I have taken into consideration when formulating my selection.

• Had run between 4 and 10 times in the last 365 days (all of the last 15 winners)

• Had finished 1st in one of its last 5 runs (all of the last 15) 

• Did not run in a handicap last time out (all of the last 15) 

• Had an SP of 6/1 or less on both of its previous starts (all of the last 15)

• Had an overall win % of between 31 and 100% (all of the last 15) 

• Started the Arkle in the first 5 in the betting (14 of the last 15 winners) 

• Had run at least 3 times going left handed (all of the last 15 winners) 

• Jockey riding had won at least once before on the horse (all of the last 15) 

The winner of the Arkle in each renewal since 1998 have met all of the stats above (1999 winner excluded) and the overall record of runners meeting the relevant criteria is 49 runs, 14 wins, 26 places. Although I don't think stats are the be all and end all in this particular race, it's dangerous to ignore them.

The Irish Contingent 

When looking for a winner of the Arkle, the starting point always has to be past form and in particular, past hurdling form. It's not a coincidence that top class hurdlers usual develop into top class chasers and this year’s renewal features a few horses that bring high class hurdles form to the mix. At the current time Champange Fever heads the market for Willie Mullins and we all know that he was a class act over the smaller obstacles but he hasn't impressed me this season since going chasing and I'm struggling to see why he deserves to be so short in the betting, given that he's yet to record an RPR in excess of 150 over fences. I'm of the opinion that punters are backing him on the basis of reputation and his love of the course but that's not enough for me to get involved at 3/1, as I'm certain there are better chasers in the race. Obviously the fav isn't Willies only shot in the race though, as he also has Djakadam, Ballycasey and Mozoltov and it is the latter two that I will be looking at in greater detail.

Ballycasey is a horse of immense potential and I have been incredibly impressed by the way he's gone about his business so far this season. The fact of the matter is that he's not a 2 miler though and given his position in the RSA market I think it's safe to say he won't be taking up his entry in this race. Like Felix Yonger, he's a horse that deserves considerable respect in which ever race he turns up in but I just can't see it being the Arkle.

Mozoltov is a horse that I actually fancied for the Supreme Novices last year but he didn't end up heading to Cheltenham. He is a graded winner over hurdles, so he's a decent type and he appears to have improved from the switch to fencing. Mozoltov's first run this season came in a decent looking race at Fairyhouse in December where he destroyed his opposition with a very accurate round of jumping under Davy Russell beating Mallowney by 7 lengths.  The horse then went to the Irish Arkle where he finished third behind Trifolium and Felix Yonger. The two horses in front of him that day had more experience and that probably showed, as his jumping was slightly erratic and he was never really able to land a blow. His final prep run came in a very weak race Grade 2 race at Naas and it's safe to say that horse did everything he possibly could to avoid winning but in the end his opposition were just too poor to take advantage of his numerous mistakes. Whether those mistakes were down to a lack of company, it's hard to tell but I can comprehensively say that the performance wasn't anywhere near good enough to entice me to have a bet on him for the Arkle, and I think he's going to need more time before he can develop into a genuine Grade 1 performer.

Other than the horses previously assessed, there are two other possible Irish runners that deserve a mention and they are Trifolium and Don Cossack. Both of these horses are owned by Gigginstown and both look to be up to winning a decent contest this season but both carry significant risk from a betting perspective. Trifolium has run well this season over fences but he's had his issues and has shown a tendency to race slightly awkwardly on occasion. There would also have to be a question-mark about whether he will stay on up the hill if they go quickly as he's not a confirmed stayer over anything further than 17f and he's had issues with his wind in the past. Don Cossack on the other-hand will find the trip to be on the sharp side and will need a really brisk pace if he is to play a part. With a few front runners in the line up there is a prospect of that happening though and he's always been held in very high regard by his trainer. Whether a track like Cheltenham plays to his strengths is uncertain and with multiple entries at the festival, I'm not 100% certain that he will even line up in the Arkle. 

In conclusion, the Irish head to the race with numbers in their favour but for me they lack the x-factor. Champagne Fever is decent, but I just can't see him winning unless Ruby manages to steal the race from the front. Personally I feel the best chance of an Irish winner was Felix Yonger but he looks set to head to the JLT and I can only assume that has something to do with stable/owner politics. At a big price, Don Cossack could be worth a look if he goes to post and we see a fast early pace but that's too many ifs for my liking and I would be very confident that we will be seeing an English trained winner this year. 

The English Contingent 

As previously mentioned, English yards have done well in this race over the years and they look to have a very strong hand in this year’s renewal. The starting point for me has to be Dodging Bullets who has been a model of consistency this year and has really stepped up after a disappointing end to last season. The trainer attributes his change in fortune to a wind op that was undertaken in the summer and it seems to have worked a treat. The horse started his season off in a beginners chase at Kempton and although the performance wasn't polished, he won well but that was to be expected given his superiority to the opposition. His next race required a more demanding test of his ability and Paul opted to send him to the Arkle Trial at Cheltenham. DB took on a pretty average field that day but surprisingly started as the second favourite behind the well touted Raya Star. It was evident very early on in that race that the market had got it all wrong and DB won as he liked pulling well clear of his opposition and marked himself down as a genuine Arkle contender. Since then the horse has recorded another win in the Wayward Lad at Kempton (beat Grandouet) and finished 2nd in his prep race behind the Tom George trained, Module. Now on the face of things, Dodging Bullets would have to deserve considerable respect heading into this race but I have one rather significant reservation, will his breathing hold out going up the hill? His wins this year have come in small fields, on good ground, in slowly run races and he's unlikely to encounter any of those things in the Arkle. I started this review by talking about value and for me there is little to be had when backing this particular horse at 6/1. 

Paul Nicholls currently has Hinterland entered in the race as well as DB and the former is a very interesting contender. Unlike the majority of his opposition, Hinterland is a seasoned chaser and ran in this race last year when getting destroyed by Simonsig. Since then the horse has stepped up slightly on his previous form and has beaten the likes of Balder Success, Grandouet and Turn Over Sivola. He has always been considered as one, if not the, top chasing prospects in the yard and unlike most of his opposition, a race like the Arkle is tailor made for him. Although I would have liked to see the horse have one more run before heading to the festival, I'm certain he would have been a lot shorter in the betting if that had been the case and for that reason alone he has to offer value at a best price of 14/1 with Paddy Power. 

Alan King is a trainer with a winning touch in this race and Valdez would appear to be his only chance of adding another Arkle to his CV as the owners of Balders Success are keen to avoid the festival (god knows why). Although Valdez has run well this season I don't think he has the form or the class of some of his opposition but the fact he's as short as 8/1 with some firms, reinforces my belief that this is not a vintage renewal of the race. I can understand why people have picked him for place purposes and his RPR are decent enough but he's not my idea of an Arkle winner and I think he can be overlooked. 

Having seemingly discarded the majority of the field for betting purposes, I'm left with two remaining entries and they are, Grandouet and Rock on Ruby. Every punter has a horse that they back blind and mine is Grandouet.  From the first time I saw him winning in France back in 2010 I knew he was smart but he's never really fulfilled his potential and he's lost me plenty of money in the interim. For one reason or another Nicky Henderson took the belated decision to send him Chasing this year and so far it hasn't really paid dividends as he's been turned over at shortish odds on all three occasions. When you look at the Arkle stats above, clearly Grandouet falls short of what's required but he's one of the highest rated hurdlers in the field and if the strong pace were to improve his jumping then I think he'd have a chance of making the frame. Unfortunately, I can't tip a horse with his profile to my readers but that won't stop me from having a small e/w investment myself, because I will never forgive myself if he wins without my money riding on him. 

The final horse worth mentioning is Rock on Ruby but I like many, were surprised to see his connections even running this horse over fences, let alone entering him in the Arkle. For me, this has to be an admission that he's not capable of mixing it with the big guns in the hurdling division and that has to be a major concern as this is a race that usual goes to a horse that's upwardly mobile and not on a decline. The other factor against ROR is that he's yet to really be tested over fences and I would have liked to see how he performed in a competitive race before backing him in a race like this. Like Dodging Bullets, he can clearly stake a claim but his price is now prohibitive. 

Conclusion

Having reviewed this race in great detail it is blindingly obvious to me, that this is a weak renewal of the Arkle. For me the favourite is also weak and plenty of horses seemingly find themselves in the race because they can't be placed to better effect one reason or another. There are however some exceptions to that rule and there is no doubt in my mind that the Arkle is the perfect race for Hinterland. His preparation for the race obviously hasn't been ideal but he may just have the class to overcome that obstacle and at 14/1 he has to be great value for e/w purposes. Of the remaining runners I do think that Grandouet has a chance and Nicky will have been working none stop to get the horses jumping in order. Whether readers would be prepared to back him given that he's only slightly bigger than Hinterland in the market, I couldn't be sure but I will be very intrigued to see which way he goes in the market over the next few days. 

Advised Bet

Hinterland (14/1) - E/W 

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The Supreme Novices

For me, the Supreme is one of the hardest races of the festival to assess. It's easy to get carried away by the tide of media hype and spend hours analysing form and pedigrees but at the end of the day this is a race that has been kind to bookmakers over the years and favourite backers rarely walk away with their pockets bulging with cash. With that in mind, I always approach this race from a value perspective and that's exactly what I've done this year. I'm looking for a horse that has proven ability, raw speed and class but most importantly, they offer e/w value.

Despite this race throwing up the odd unexpected winner, there are a few key trends that I give careful consideration to prior to picking the horse to carry my money and a few of them can be seen below.

• Raced over 2 miles to 2 miles 4 furlong on their last start
• Was placed in their last race
• Had their last run over hurdles & carried a weight of between 11st 5 & 11st 12 (Western Boy fails)
• Were no bigger than 8/1 (sp) in their previous race
• Had a win percentage over hurdles of between 40-100%
• Had won at least once going left handed (Irving fails on this)
• Did not have their penultimate run in a handicap
• Had run between 2 and 10 times in the last 365 days
• Was in the first 3 in the market (sp) on their second to last and third to last run. 

Each of the last 16 winners of this race had met all of the criteria above (67 bets, 16 winners, 24 places) and I would be reluctant to back any horse in the race unless they met all of them. 

The Irish Contingent 

My personal feeling is that this years renewal of the Supreme is rather weak but once again the Irish hold a very strong hand and that will be my starting point as far as potential bets are concerned. 

There is no doubt that there has been significant support for the Willie Mullins trained Vautour but there is no way he represents any kind of value, especially when you see Western Boy available at prices in excess of 16/1. For that reason alone I couldn't advise anyone to back him but Willie does have two other horses in the race that deserve considerable respect.

The first horse of interest is, Valseur Lido who goes into the race with a 100% record having won his 2 career starts over hurdles. This horse's jumping is impeccable and one would have to say that he should be even better in a race like the Supreme where they go a decent clip. I do have some reservations about him though, as we are yet to really see what he finds under pressure and I'm personally not a fan of German bred horses in these kind of races. There also has to be a slight question-mark as to whether he will be as effective on better ground but he has to be a horse to consider given he's priced up at around 16/1.

The second entry for Willie that catches the eye for a whole host of reasons is, Wicklow Brave. I've been following this horse for a while and there is no doubt that he's classy. My concern for the horse was that he would fail to transfer his bumper form over hurdles but so far he's looked precocious over obstacles and like his stable mate, comes into the race with a 100% record. Although Wicklow's jumping isn't as polished as Valseur Lido, he has an incredibly high cruising speeding, a devastating turn of foot but most importantly, he stays. The form of his win at Punchestown last time out has already been franked by Reel Steal who won a Grade 2 race at the weekend and for me, Wicklow Brave ticks all the right boxes. Obviously Ruby is going to be on the favourite which is no surprise given the owner and I therefore assume Mullins junior will be taking the ride. The young jockey has a good rapport with the horse and providing he keeps him close to the pace I think he has a cracking chance.

The final Irish runner that deserves a mention is, Western Boy. Now this particular horse was my preliminary selection for this race after winning his maiden hurdle at Leopardstown back in December. The horse's performance that day was truly exceptional and the form looks particularly strong with plenty of the horse in behind going on to win races in the interim. Following that run, his trainer sent WB to the Moscow Flyer where he took on Vautour. I watched that race with interest and having had a bet I thought I was going to collect until the horse put in a shocking jump 3 from home. Although the horse rallied, he wasn't good enough to overhaul the favourite (winning distance 3/4 length). Despite that loss, I was not disheartened as the horse has shown enough to suggest to me that he could have a live-wire chance at the festival and I set about waiting for the trainer to enter him in the Deloitte. For one reason or another the horse didn't take up his entry in that race though and that  put some doubt in my mind about the horses ability to turn up at Cheltenham and do the business without a prep run. I still however think this is a horse of immense talent and the fact that his trainer has apparently managed to book Davy to take the ride shows us that the horse isn't just going there to make up the number. I also think he will improve on better ground and I'm 100% certain that this horse will be winning a big prize sooner rather than later. 

The English Contingent

Having reviewed the best of the Irish chances it's only fair that I look at the best of the English representatives. I personally I think it will be tough for any of them to win but for completeness I will give a few reasons why I'm of that opinion.

The starting point here has to be Irving who is currently vying for favouritism with Vautour. Paul Nicholls' inmate has done nothing wrong since arriving at the yard and has won all four of his career starts over hurdles. Paul has been bullish about the horses chances in this particular race but I don't see how people could be backing a horse at 3/1 that's never gone left handed. Whether it will be a hindrance is uncertain but I'd want to know the answer to a question like that before I even considered backing him. The other negative for me, is the fact that the horse hasn't exactly been campaigned like a Supreme winner and I'm sure in an ideal world we wouldn't have seen the horse having his prep just a few weeks before the big day. I don't doubt that he's a decent horse but for me he's not a Supreme winner and he's definitely not good value.

The next horse worth a mentioning is Josses Hill for Nicky Henderson.  I'd be the first to admit that this horse hasn't exactly set the world alight this season but that almost makes his position in the Supreme market all the more interesting. He goes into the race meeting most of the key criteria and he's definitely a horse with plenty of ability and raw speed. I personally felt that the horse should have won at Kempton last time out but plenty went against him that day and I think he'd easily reverse the form with Royal Boy if meeting on better ground at a different track. If that's the case then Josses Hill surely has to have an outside chance in this particular race as Royal Boy is a horse of considerable talent and both of the Henderson inmates put clear daylight between themselves and the likes of the Upsie and The Liquidator. If an English trained horse is going to win this years renewal then for me it will be Josses Hill but whether he has the natural ability of some of the Irish contingent, I'm not so sure.

The final two horses I'm going to mention are First Mohican and Wilde Blue Yonder. The latter should really be going into this renewal with 4 hurdle wins under his belt but he seems to have a phobia of jumping the last and that makes him almost impossible to back with any confidence, in any race, let alone the Supreme. However, It's apparent from his performances to date that he has real talent and he may just be a horse for in-play punters because if he warms to the task then he could be in with a shout. First Mohican really impressed me when winning on his debut for Alan King but his run at the weekend was poor and it definitely wasn't the performance of a horse that was about to be crowned as a novice champ. He's definitely highly thought of though and I'm sure there will be a race for him at Aintree.


Conclusion

Personally, I don't think this years renewal is particular strong and realistically there would appear to be only a smallish number of horses that could actually win. Although the likes of Vautour and Irving clearly warrant respect, they don't offer value for punters and if you didn't manage to get on them anti-post at bigger odds, I definitely wouldn't be rushing out to back them now.

For those punters looking for a bit of e/w value, I think the likes of Western Boy, Valseur Lido, Josses Hill and Wicklow Brave should be the starting point and my personal preference is for the latter two. Both horses  have shown a decent level of form, fall inside the trend parameters and are bred to be up to winning a race such as this. Nicky Henderson has had a baron spell in the Supreme for a while but there has always been a buzz around his entry and I wouldn't be at all surprised if he were to place. Whether he can win is yet to be seen and I just feel that the Irish contingent bring the best form and horses to the table. Wicklow Brave has always been prominent in the market and with plenty in his favour, I think he's the most likely winner and my e/w stakes will be weighted in his favour.

The dark horse as far as I'm concerned is still Western Boy and if he had made his intended target in the shape of the Deloitte then I have a feeling I would have been advising readers to lump on him because I can't get that performance at Leopardstown out of my head. As it stands though, I can't back a horse without a prep race and he will be running on the 11th of March without my money on him.

Advised Bets - Josses Hill and Wicklow Brave - E/W Stakes. 

Thank you for reading and please check out the blog in the next few days for more Festival race reviews and selections. 

The Return

It's been a long time since I posted anything on this blog but with Cheltenham just around the corner I've decided to get it up and running again. 

Between now and the start of the festival I will be giving my thoughts and selections on all of the race in the hope of landing a few nice winners. I will be providing detailed form review, key race stats/trends and a sprinkling of info from all the up and coming preview nights.

Hopefully you will enjoy reading my thoughts and feel free to post any comments or selections you might have, as I'm always keen to hear other peoples thoughts. 

I will be kicking things off tomorrow with the Supreme so watch this space. 

Cheers

Jordan