The Arkle

This year’s Arkle look extremely competitive and it’s not going to be an easy puzzle to solve. In recent times the home team has dominated the race but the Irish appear to be mob handed this year and there are some very interesting contenders making the trip. As with the Supreme I will be approaching the race from a value perspective so I'm going to discard the favourite Champagne Fever and I'm also working under the assumption that Felix Yonger will be heading to the JLT.

The Race Stats

Although there are a few key trends in this particular race, I'm minded to put the majority of them to one side this year as it doesn't look like a conventional renewal of the race. That being said, there are a few stats below that I have taken into consideration when formulating my selection.

• Had run between 4 and 10 times in the last 365 days (all of the last 15 winners)

• Had finished 1st in one of its last 5 runs (all of the last 15) 

• Did not run in a handicap last time out (all of the last 15) 

• Had an SP of 6/1 or less on both of its previous starts (all of the last 15)

• Had an overall win % of between 31 and 100% (all of the last 15) 

• Started the Arkle in the first 5 in the betting (14 of the last 15 winners) 

• Had run at least 3 times going left handed (all of the last 15 winners) 

• Jockey riding had won at least once before on the horse (all of the last 15) 

The winner of the Arkle in each renewal since 1998 have met all of the stats above (1999 winner excluded) and the overall record of runners meeting the relevant criteria is 49 runs, 14 wins, 26 places. Although I don't think stats are the be all and end all in this particular race, it's dangerous to ignore them.

The Irish Contingent 

When looking for a winner of the Arkle, the starting point always has to be past form and in particular, past hurdling form. It's not a coincidence that top class hurdlers usual develop into top class chasers and this year’s renewal features a few horses that bring high class hurdles form to the mix. At the current time Champange Fever heads the market for Willie Mullins and we all know that he was a class act over the smaller obstacles but he hasn't impressed me this season since going chasing and I'm struggling to see why he deserves to be so short in the betting, given that he's yet to record an RPR in excess of 150 over fences. I'm of the opinion that punters are backing him on the basis of reputation and his love of the course but that's not enough for me to get involved at 3/1, as I'm certain there are better chasers in the race. Obviously the fav isn't Willies only shot in the race though, as he also has Djakadam, Ballycasey and Mozoltov and it is the latter two that I will be looking at in greater detail.

Ballycasey is a horse of immense potential and I have been incredibly impressed by the way he's gone about his business so far this season. The fact of the matter is that he's not a 2 miler though and given his position in the RSA market I think it's safe to say he won't be taking up his entry in this race. Like Felix Yonger, he's a horse that deserves considerable respect in which ever race he turns up in but I just can't see it being the Arkle.

Mozoltov is a horse that I actually fancied for the Supreme Novices last year but he didn't end up heading to Cheltenham. He is a graded winner over hurdles, so he's a decent type and he appears to have improved from the switch to fencing. Mozoltov's first run this season came in a decent looking race at Fairyhouse in December where he destroyed his opposition with a very accurate round of jumping under Davy Russell beating Mallowney by 7 lengths.  The horse then went to the Irish Arkle where he finished third behind Trifolium and Felix Yonger. The two horses in front of him that day had more experience and that probably showed, as his jumping was slightly erratic and he was never really able to land a blow. His final prep run came in a very weak race Grade 2 race at Naas and it's safe to say that horse did everything he possibly could to avoid winning but in the end his opposition were just too poor to take advantage of his numerous mistakes. Whether those mistakes were down to a lack of company, it's hard to tell but I can comprehensively say that the performance wasn't anywhere near good enough to entice me to have a bet on him for the Arkle, and I think he's going to need more time before he can develop into a genuine Grade 1 performer.

Other than the horses previously assessed, there are two other possible Irish runners that deserve a mention and they are Trifolium and Don Cossack. Both of these horses are owned by Gigginstown and both look to be up to winning a decent contest this season but both carry significant risk from a betting perspective. Trifolium has run well this season over fences but he's had his issues and has shown a tendency to race slightly awkwardly on occasion. There would also have to be a question-mark about whether he will stay on up the hill if they go quickly as he's not a confirmed stayer over anything further than 17f and he's had issues with his wind in the past. Don Cossack on the other-hand will find the trip to be on the sharp side and will need a really brisk pace if he is to play a part. With a few front runners in the line up there is a prospect of that happening though and he's always been held in very high regard by his trainer. Whether a track like Cheltenham plays to his strengths is uncertain and with multiple entries at the festival, I'm not 100% certain that he will even line up in the Arkle. 

In conclusion, the Irish head to the race with numbers in their favour but for me they lack the x-factor. Champagne Fever is decent, but I just can't see him winning unless Ruby manages to steal the race from the front. Personally I feel the best chance of an Irish winner was Felix Yonger but he looks set to head to the JLT and I can only assume that has something to do with stable/owner politics. At a big price, Don Cossack could be worth a look if he goes to post and we see a fast early pace but that's too many ifs for my liking and I would be very confident that we will be seeing an English trained winner this year. 

The English Contingent 

As previously mentioned, English yards have done well in this race over the years and they look to have a very strong hand in this year’s renewal. The starting point for me has to be Dodging Bullets who has been a model of consistency this year and has really stepped up after a disappointing end to last season. The trainer attributes his change in fortune to a wind op that was undertaken in the summer and it seems to have worked a treat. The horse started his season off in a beginners chase at Kempton and although the performance wasn't polished, he won well but that was to be expected given his superiority to the opposition. His next race required a more demanding test of his ability and Paul opted to send him to the Arkle Trial at Cheltenham. DB took on a pretty average field that day but surprisingly started as the second favourite behind the well touted Raya Star. It was evident very early on in that race that the market had got it all wrong and DB won as he liked pulling well clear of his opposition and marked himself down as a genuine Arkle contender. Since then the horse has recorded another win in the Wayward Lad at Kempton (beat Grandouet) and finished 2nd in his prep race behind the Tom George trained, Module. Now on the face of things, Dodging Bullets would have to deserve considerable respect heading into this race but I have one rather significant reservation, will his breathing hold out going up the hill? His wins this year have come in small fields, on good ground, in slowly run races and he's unlikely to encounter any of those things in the Arkle. I started this review by talking about value and for me there is little to be had when backing this particular horse at 6/1. 

Paul Nicholls currently has Hinterland entered in the race as well as DB and the former is a very interesting contender. Unlike the majority of his opposition, Hinterland is a seasoned chaser and ran in this race last year when getting destroyed by Simonsig. Since then the horse has stepped up slightly on his previous form and has beaten the likes of Balder Success, Grandouet and Turn Over Sivola. He has always been considered as one, if not the, top chasing prospects in the yard and unlike most of his opposition, a race like the Arkle is tailor made for him. Although I would have liked to see the horse have one more run before heading to the festival, I'm certain he would have been a lot shorter in the betting if that had been the case and for that reason alone he has to offer value at a best price of 14/1 with Paddy Power. 

Alan King is a trainer with a winning touch in this race and Valdez would appear to be his only chance of adding another Arkle to his CV as the owners of Balders Success are keen to avoid the festival (god knows why). Although Valdez has run well this season I don't think he has the form or the class of some of his opposition but the fact he's as short as 8/1 with some firms, reinforces my belief that this is not a vintage renewal of the race. I can understand why people have picked him for place purposes and his RPR are decent enough but he's not my idea of an Arkle winner and I think he can be overlooked. 

Having seemingly discarded the majority of the field for betting purposes, I'm left with two remaining entries and they are, Grandouet and Rock on Ruby. Every punter has a horse that they back blind and mine is Grandouet.  From the first time I saw him winning in France back in 2010 I knew he was smart but he's never really fulfilled his potential and he's lost me plenty of money in the interim. For one reason or another Nicky Henderson took the belated decision to send him Chasing this year and so far it hasn't really paid dividends as he's been turned over at shortish odds on all three occasions. When you look at the Arkle stats above, clearly Grandouet falls short of what's required but he's one of the highest rated hurdlers in the field and if the strong pace were to improve his jumping then I think he'd have a chance of making the frame. Unfortunately, I can't tip a horse with his profile to my readers but that won't stop me from having a small e/w investment myself, because I will never forgive myself if he wins without my money riding on him. 

The final horse worth mentioning is Rock on Ruby but I like many, were surprised to see his connections even running this horse over fences, let alone entering him in the Arkle. For me, this has to be an admission that he's not capable of mixing it with the big guns in the hurdling division and that has to be a major concern as this is a race that usual goes to a horse that's upwardly mobile and not on a decline. The other factor against ROR is that he's yet to really be tested over fences and I would have liked to see how he performed in a competitive race before backing him in a race like this. Like Dodging Bullets, he can clearly stake a claim but his price is now prohibitive. 

Conclusion

Having reviewed this race in great detail it is blindingly obvious to me, that this is a weak renewal of the Arkle. For me the favourite is also weak and plenty of horses seemingly find themselves in the race because they can't be placed to better effect one reason or another. There are however some exceptions to that rule and there is no doubt in my mind that the Arkle is the perfect race for Hinterland. His preparation for the race obviously hasn't been ideal but he may just have the class to overcome that obstacle and at 14/1 he has to be great value for e/w purposes. Of the remaining runners I do think that Grandouet has a chance and Nicky will have been working none stop to get the horses jumping in order. Whether readers would be prepared to back him given that he's only slightly bigger than Hinterland in the market, I couldn't be sure but I will be very intrigued to see which way he goes in the market over the next few days. 

Advised Bet

Hinterland (14/1) - E/W 

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