Unlike the Arkle and the Supreme Novices, I think this years Champion Hurdle is one of the most competitive renewals for a long time and that's reflected in the market. I'm not convinced there is any real value to be had, which is unfortunate, and realistically I think it's probably a race to enjoy as a spectacle rather than a betting opportunity but that hasn't stopped me from at least trying to find the winner.
Clearly the starting point for this years renewal has to be the favourite, Hurricane Fly. With 18 Grade 1 wins to his name there is absolutely no doubt that this horse will go down in history as one of the all time greats and he's already added 3 more wins to his tally this season. The first of those wins came in Morgiana Hurdle at Punchestown, where he went of as a 1/16 shot but put in an average performance to beat Marito by just over a length, recording an RPR of 154 in the process. Willie was quick to criticise the horses performance that day, and rightly so, because the RPR recorded was significantly less than the horse had achieved when winning the same race a year earlier (RPR of 169).
Following his run in the Morgiana, Hurricane Fly went to post in the Ryanair Hurdle where he took on a field of some of Ireland's most promising young hurdlers including, Our Conor and Jekzi. The race that day was a very tactical affair but Ruby used the horse's tactical speed to good effect and he dispatched his opposition with consummate ease. The performances of Our Conor and Jezki can both be upgraded though, as Jezki was never going to come out on top on a sprint to the finish and Our Conor was fully entitled to need the run. It is worth noting that despite winning, HF still fell well short of the RPR he had recorded in the same race last year and he went off odds against for the first time since 2010.
The horse's final prep run came in the Irish Champion Hurdle and both Our Conor and Jezki re-opposed him. Despite the change in scenery, a decent race time and softer ground, Hurricane Fly emphatically confirmed the form of the Ryanair and once again put clear daylight between himself and last years Triumph winner, Our Conor. After the race, Willie confirmed that his horse had been having a few troubles at home and for the first time in a while he wasn't 100% confident going into a race with the Fly. Now, obviously you can't believe everything that trainers say because a lot of it is smoke and mirrors but looking at the horse's RPR's this season and comparing the respective performances of Our Conor and Jezki, you have to question just how strong the 2 mile division really is in Ireland. My personal feeling is that Our Conor lacks the experience to win a Champion Hurdle and Jezki probably falls short of what's required to be top notch over 2 miles, even if it is up the Cheltenham hill. Hurricane Fly is a horse that I have an incredible amount of respect for but I'm just not sure he's as good as he was and he will be facing two horses who's ability far exceed anything he encountered last year.
Having seemingly dismissed the Irish challengers the first English trained horse I'm going to look at is My Tent Or Yours. This horse will always hold a place in my heart because he won me a small fortune when winning the Betfair Hurdle last year. From day one this horse has been touted by the yard as a future Champion Hurdler and it's not hard to see why. His cruising speed is high, he stays well, jumps well and has continued his progression by adding 3 wins to his belt so far this season at a time when his trainer has been struggling.
My Tent made his seasonal reappearance in the Fighting Fifth and put in one of the best performances of his career to win by 3 lengths. Despite the nature of his win, the horse still pulled hard in the early part of the race and was a bit cumbersome at one or two of his hurdles, but the race time was decent enough and the opposition was classy enough to suggest that it was a decent effort first time up ( RPR of 155).
Following his performance in the Fighting Fifth, Nicky sent the horse to Kempton for the Christmas Hurdle and we finally got to see him take on The New One again. Despite the fact that I think Nigel's horse is top notch, I was very confident that MTOY would win that day because he seemingly had everything in his favour. The race was set up to turn into a sprint and the nature of the track and the state of the ground was always going to play into the hands of Tony McCoy. As it turned out, I was proved to be correct but the margin of victory was slim and I personally felt that the TNO emerged with real credit and if anything his performance was more impressive than the winners (RPR ratings of 169).
My Tents final prep race for the Champion Hurdle came in a jumpers bumper at Kempton and this is where I completely part company with the horse. There has been much discussion about the horse's winning time, intended targets, homework etc but for me a prep race in a jumpers bumper is not a whole lot better than a race course gallop and when you look at the records of horses that went to the festival in a similar position, it doesn't make for pleasant reading.
There is no doubt that this horse is a class act, he's already proven that on numerous occasions but for me he's all about speed and if I know that, every trainer knows that and I strongly believe that's why Mullins still has Un De Sceaux in the race because he intends to ride the finish out of MTOY and turn this into a real test. If that proves to be the case then I just can't see the horse winning and for me, I don't see him beating The New One at Cheltenham in any race, over any distance anyway.
Having looked at the likes of Our Conor, Hurricane Fly, Jezki and My Tent of Yours, it's apparent to me that there is one horse in this race that seemingly holds all the cards and that's Nigel's stable star, The New One.
Looking back through the archives, you quickly see that winners of the Neptune have performed very well in this race over the years and Nigel Twiston-Davis was quick to inform punters immediately after winning that race last year that the Champion Hurdle would be TNO intended target for this season and you can definitely see why. The horse has an extremely potent mix of speed and stamina and is incredibly versatile when it comes to race tactics. Both his trainer and jockey are of the opinion that he needs a decent even pace to aim at but don't be fooled, this horse is lightening quick.
Prior to his engagement in the Champion Hurdle, The New One has had 3 races so far this season and his only loss came when encountering MTOY (I've already review that race above). His win prior to that in the, International Hurdle was impressive and the way he left Zarkander for dead after the last was very difficult to ignore. The Nicholls horse may not be top, top notch but he's a really solid marker and I know Nigel was absolutely chuffed with the performance. For reasons previously mentioned, the horse lost nothing in defeat when going down by under a length to MTOY at Kempton either and for me he comes into this race as the only horse that has the talent to overhaul Hurricane Fly in a truly run race at the course. Given that the two are both available at 3/1, I would always side with potential and with the Irish form looking weak, I think The New One has to hold a favourites chance. The only thing that would change my opinion, would be if Willie was to pull Un De Sceaux because the prospect of a slowly run race would have to tip the scale in favour of My Tent Of Yours, irrespective of the fact that he's had his prep run on the AW.
Conclusion
Advised Bet - The New One (3/1) - Win Bet
Thank you for reading and please take advantage of some of our betting offers. William Hill will also be supplying us with a variety of special Festival bonuses over the next few days so keep your eyes posted for them. I'm also in the process of completing my review of the opening day's handicap races and I'm hopeful they will be up first thing tomorrow morning.
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