Despite this race throwing up the odd unexpected winner, there are a few key trends that I give careful consideration to prior to picking the horse to carry my money and a few of them can be seen below.
- Raced over 2 miles to 2 miles 4 furlong on their last start
- Was placed in their last race
- Had their last run over hurdles & carried a weight of between 11st 5 & 11st 12 (Western Boy fails)
- Were no bigger than 8/1 (sp) in their previous race
- Had a win percentage over hurdles of between 40-100%
- Had won at least once going left handed (Irving fails on this)
- Did not have their penultimate run in a handicap
- Had run between 2 and 10 times in the last 365 days
- Was in the first 3 in the market (sp) on their second to last and third to last run.
Each of the last 16 winners of this race had met all of the criteria above (67 bets, 16 winners, 24 places) and I would be reluctant to back any horse in the race unless they met all of them.
The Irish Contingent
My personal feeling is that this years renewal of the Supreme is rather weak but once again the Irish hold a very strong hand and that will be my starting point as far as potential bets are concerned.
There is no doubt that there has been significant support for the Willie Mullins trained Vautour but there is no way he represents any kind of value, especially when you see Western Boy available at prices in excess of 16/1. For that reason alone I couldn't advise anyone to back him but Willie does have two other horses in the race that deserve considerable respect.
The first horse of interest is, Valseur Lido who goes into the race with a 100% record having won his 2 career starts over hurdles. This horse's jumping is impeccable and one would have to say that he should be even better in a race like the Supreme where they go a decent clip. I do have some reservations about him though, as we are yet to really see what he finds under pressure and I'm personally not a fan of German bred horses in these kind of races. There also has to be a slight question-mark as to whether he will be as effective on better ground but he has to be a horse to consider given he's priced up at around 16/1.
The second entry for Willie that catches the eye for a whole host of reasons is, Wicklow Brave. I've been following this horse for a while and there is no doubt that he's classy. My concern for the horse was that he would fail to transfer his bumper form over hurdles but so far he's looked precocious over obstacles and like his stable mate, comes into the race with a 100% record. Although Wicklow's jumping isn't as polished as Valseur Lido, he has an incredibly high cruising speeding, a devastating turn of foot but most importantly, he stays. The form of his win at Punchestown last time out has already been franked by Reel Steal who won a Grade 2 race at the weekend and for me, Wicklow Brave ticks all the right boxes. Obviously Ruby is going to be on the favourite which is no surprise given the owner and I therefore assume Mullins junior will be taking the ride. The young jockey has a good rapport with the horse and providing he keeps him close to the pace I think he has a cracking chance.
The final Irish runner that deserves a mention is, Western Boy. Now this particular horse was my preliminary selection for this race after winning his maiden hurdle at Leopardstown back in December. The horse's performance that day was truly exceptional and the form looks particularly strong with plenty of the horse in behind going on to win races in the interim. Following that run, his trainer sent WB to the Moscow Flyer where he took on Vautour. I watched that race with interest and having had a bet I thought I was going to collect until the horse put in a shocking jump 3 from home. Although the horse rallied, he wasn't good enough to overhaul the favourite (winning distance 3/4 length). Despite that loss, I was not disheartened as the horse has shown enough to suggest to me that he could have a live-wire chance at the festival and I set about waiting for the trainer to enter him in the Deloitte. For one reason or another the horse didn't take up his entry in that race though and that put some doubt in my mind about the horses ability to turn up at Cheltenham and do the business without a prep run. I still however think this is a horse of immense talent and the fact that his trainer has apparently managed to book Davy to take the ride shows us that the horse isn't just going there to make up the number. I also think he will improve on better ground and I'm 100% certain that this horse will be winning a big prize sooner rather than later.
The first horse of interest is, Valseur Lido who goes into the race with a 100% record having won his 2 career starts over hurdles. This horse's jumping is impeccable and one would have to say that he should be even better in a race like the Supreme where they go a decent clip. I do have some reservations about him though, as we are yet to really see what he finds under pressure and I'm personally not a fan of German bred horses in these kind of races. There also has to be a slight question-mark as to whether he will be as effective on better ground but he has to be a horse to consider given he's priced up at around 16/1.
The second entry for Willie that catches the eye for a whole host of reasons is, Wicklow Brave. I've been following this horse for a while and there is no doubt that he's classy. My concern for the horse was that he would fail to transfer his bumper form over hurdles but so far he's looked precocious over obstacles and like his stable mate, comes into the race with a 100% record. Although Wicklow's jumping isn't as polished as Valseur Lido, he has an incredibly high cruising speeding, a devastating turn of foot but most importantly, he stays. The form of his win at Punchestown last time out has already been franked by Reel Steal who won a Grade 2 race at the weekend and for me, Wicklow Brave ticks all the right boxes. Obviously Ruby is going to be on the favourite which is no surprise given the owner and I therefore assume Mullins junior will be taking the ride. The young jockey has a good rapport with the horse and providing he keeps him close to the pace I think he has a cracking chance.
The final Irish runner that deserves a mention is, Western Boy. Now this particular horse was my preliminary selection for this race after winning his maiden hurdle at Leopardstown back in December. The horse's performance that day was truly exceptional and the form looks particularly strong with plenty of the horse in behind going on to win races in the interim. Following that run, his trainer sent WB to the Moscow Flyer where he took on Vautour. I watched that race with interest and having had a bet I thought I was going to collect until the horse put in a shocking jump 3 from home. Although the horse rallied, he wasn't good enough to overhaul the favourite (winning distance 3/4 length). Despite that loss, I was not disheartened as the horse has shown enough to suggest to me that he could have a live-wire chance at the festival and I set about waiting for the trainer to enter him in the Deloitte. For one reason or another the horse didn't take up his entry in that race though and that put some doubt in my mind about the horses ability to turn up at Cheltenham and do the business without a prep run. I still however think this is a horse of immense talent and the fact that his trainer has apparently managed to book Davy to take the ride shows us that the horse isn't just going there to make up the number. I also think he will improve on better ground and I'm 100% certain that this horse will be winning a big prize sooner rather than later.
The English Contingent
Having reviewed the best of the Irish chances it's only fair that I look at the best of the English representatives. I personally I think it will be tough for any of them to win but for completeness I will give a few reasons why I'm of that opinion.
The starting point here has to be Irving who is currently vying for favouritism with Vautour. Paul Nicholls' inmate has done nothing wrong since arriving at the yard and has won all four of his career starts over hurdles. Paul has been bullish about the horses chances in this particular race but I don't see how people could be backing a horse at 3/1 that's never gone left handed. Whether it will be a hindrance is uncertain but I'd want to know the answer to a question like that before I even considered backing him. The other negative for me, is the fact that the horse hasn't exactly been campaigned like a Supreme winner and I'm sure in an ideal world we wouldn't have seen the horse having his prep just a few weeks before the big day. I don't doubt that he's a decent horse but for me he's not a Supreme winner and he's definitely not good value.
The next horse worth a mentioning is Josses Hill for Nicky Henderson. I'd be the first to admit that this horse hasn't exactly set the world alight this season but that almost makes his position in the Supreme market all the more interesting. He goes into the race meeting most of the key criteria and he's definitely a horse with plenty of ability and raw speed. I personally felt that the horse should have won at Kempton last time out but plenty went against him that day and I think he'd easily reverse the form with Royal Boy if meeting on better ground at a different track. If that's the case then Josses Hill surely has to have an outside chance in this particular race as Royal Boy is a horse of considerable talent and both of the Henderson inmates put clear daylight between themselves and the likes of the Upsie and The Liquidator. If an English trained horse is going to win this years renewal then for me it will be Josses Hill but whether he has the natural ability of some of the Irish contingent, I'm not so sure.
The final two horses I'm going to mention are First Mohican and Wilde Blue Yonder. The latter should really be going into this renewal with 4 hurdle wins under his belt but he seems to have a phobia of jumping the last and that makes him almost impossible to back with any confidence, in any race, let alone the Supreme. However, It's apparent from his performances to date that he has real talent and he may just be a horse for in-play punters because if he warms to the task then he could be in with a shout. First Mohican really impressed me when winning on his debut for Alan King but his run at the weekend was poor and it definitely wasn't the performance of a horse that was about to be crowned as a novice champ. He's definitely highly thought of though and I'm sure there will be a race for him at Aintree.
Conclusion
Personally, I don't think this years renewal is particular strong and realistically there would appear to be only a smallish number of horses that could actually win. Although the likes of Vautour and Irving clearly warrant respect, they don't offer value for punters and if you didn't manage to get on them anti-post at bigger odds, I definitely wouldn't be rushing out to back them now.
For those punters looking for a bit of e/w value, I think the likes of Western Boy, Valseur Lido, Josses Hill and Wicklow Brave should be the starting point and my personal preference is for the latter two. Both horses have shown a decent level of form, fall inside the trend parameters and are bred to be up to winning a race such as this. Nicky Henderson has had a baron spell in the Supreme for a while but there has always been a buzz around his entry and I wouldn't be at all surprised if he were to place. Whether he can win is yet to be seen and I just feel that the Irish contingent bring the best form and horses to the table. Wicklow Brave has always been prominent in the market and with plenty in his favour, I think he's the most likely winner and my e/w stakes will be weighted in his favour.
The dark horse as far as I'm concerned is still Western Boy and if he had made his intended target in the shape of the Deloitte then I have a feeling I would have been advising readers to lump on him because I can't get that performance at Leopardstown out of my head. As it stands though, I can't back a horse without a prep race and he will be running on the 11th of March without my money on him.
Advised Bets - Josses Hill and Wicklow Brave - E/W Stakes.
Thank you for reading and please check out the blog in the next few days for more Festival race reviews and selections.
The starting point here has to be Irving who is currently vying for favouritism with Vautour. Paul Nicholls' inmate has done nothing wrong since arriving at the yard and has won all four of his career starts over hurdles. Paul has been bullish about the horses chances in this particular race but I don't see how people could be backing a horse at 3/1 that's never gone left handed. Whether it will be a hindrance is uncertain but I'd want to know the answer to a question like that before I even considered backing him. The other negative for me, is the fact that the horse hasn't exactly been campaigned like a Supreme winner and I'm sure in an ideal world we wouldn't have seen the horse having his prep just a few weeks before the big day. I don't doubt that he's a decent horse but for me he's not a Supreme winner and he's definitely not good value.
The next horse worth a mentioning is Josses Hill for Nicky Henderson. I'd be the first to admit that this horse hasn't exactly set the world alight this season but that almost makes his position in the Supreme market all the more interesting. He goes into the race meeting most of the key criteria and he's definitely a horse with plenty of ability and raw speed. I personally felt that the horse should have won at Kempton last time out but plenty went against him that day and I think he'd easily reverse the form with Royal Boy if meeting on better ground at a different track. If that's the case then Josses Hill surely has to have an outside chance in this particular race as Royal Boy is a horse of considerable talent and both of the Henderson inmates put clear daylight between themselves and the likes of the Upsie and The Liquidator. If an English trained horse is going to win this years renewal then for me it will be Josses Hill but whether he has the natural ability of some of the Irish contingent, I'm not so sure.
The final two horses I'm going to mention are First Mohican and Wilde Blue Yonder. The latter should really be going into this renewal with 4 hurdle wins under his belt but he seems to have a phobia of jumping the last and that makes him almost impossible to back with any confidence, in any race, let alone the Supreme. However, It's apparent from his performances to date that he has real talent and he may just be a horse for in-play punters because if he warms to the task then he could be in with a shout. First Mohican really impressed me when winning on his debut for Alan King but his run at the weekend was poor and it definitely wasn't the performance of a horse that was about to be crowned as a novice champ. He's definitely highly thought of though and I'm sure there will be a race for him at Aintree.
Conclusion
Personally, I don't think this years renewal is particular strong and realistically there would appear to be only a smallish number of horses that could actually win. Although the likes of Vautour and Irving clearly warrant respect, they don't offer value for punters and if you didn't manage to get on them anti-post at bigger odds, I definitely wouldn't be rushing out to back them now.
For those punters looking for a bit of e/w value, I think the likes of Western Boy, Valseur Lido, Josses Hill and Wicklow Brave should be the starting point and my personal preference is for the latter two. Both horses have shown a decent level of form, fall inside the trend parameters and are bred to be up to winning a race such as this. Nicky Henderson has had a baron spell in the Supreme for a while but there has always been a buzz around his entry and I wouldn't be at all surprised if he were to place. Whether he can win is yet to be seen and I just feel that the Irish contingent bring the best form and horses to the table. Wicklow Brave has always been prominent in the market and with plenty in his favour, I think he's the most likely winner and my e/w stakes will be weighted in his favour.
The dark horse as far as I'm concerned is still Western Boy and if he had made his intended target in the shape of the Deloitte then I have a feeling I would have been advising readers to lump on him because I can't get that performance at Leopardstown out of my head. As it stands though, I can't back a horse without a prep race and he will be running on the 11th of March without my money on him.
Advised Bets - Josses Hill and Wicklow Brave - E/W Stakes.
Thank you for reading and please check out the blog in the next few days for more Festival race reviews and selections.
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