Final bet of another great day;
Altaria (6/1) - 10pt win
Saturday, 30 June 2012
8:30 Lingfield
The horse mentioned earlier is Seven Veils and he is apparently well clear on my friends ratings but i do really fear the bell horse with Hughes booked. Despite that I'm going to have 8pts on the win at 7/2 together with a 1pt ew CSF with Bridgehampton
7:45 Doncaster
Suraj (2/1) - 20pt win - A horse from my alerts and if you believe what people having been saying about this horse then this horse will not be beaten tonight and rates as max bet material. The only horse I am slightly weary of is Beyond Conceit but I'm still happy to lump on the Bell runner.
This will be my final bet of the day although I am waiting on a word about possible selection at Lingfield. Its not an info horse but one of my friends runs a very successful ratings system and he apparentlyhas a top notch qualifier tonight.
This will be my final bet of the day although I am waiting on a word about possible selection at Lingfield. Its not an info horse but one of my friends runs a very successful ratings system and he apparentlyhas a top notch qualifier tonight.
3:35 Newmarket
Very, very strong word at the course for Majestic Myles in this race with the favourite thought to be vulnerable. I have had 5pts on the win at 4/1 and I would have had a little bit more but I do think that Libranno will be very difficult to beat.
Result - Majestic Myles - 3rd (-5pts)
Result - Majestic Myles - 3rd (-5pts)
3:10 Chester
Sun Central (7/4) - 16pt win
Result
Sun Central - 1st (+44.00) - Nice performance from this horse and he franks the form of Majestic Man. The form of his previous race is now looking to be rock solid and this one should go onto bigger and better things now.
Result
Sun Central - 1st (+44.00) - Nice performance from this horse and he franks the form of Majestic Man. The form of his previous race is now looking to be rock solid and this one should go onto bigger and better things now.
4:40 Newmarket - Fadhaa
No doubt people have spotted that this horse is being supported and the general thought is that the horse does have a very strong e/w chance but it looks to be a difficult race on paper and although he has been working well at home and is capable of improving on his current mark, it will not be an easy race to win and the general advice, which was similar to that relating to Red Art, was to back small and back e/w.
4:40 Newmarket - Fadhaa (12/1) - 1.5pts e/w
4:40 Newmarket - Fadhaa (12/1) - 1.5pts e/w
Curragh and Newcastle
3:20 Newcastle - Lexington Bay (10/1) - 2pts e.w - The subject of a very positive report from his trainer, should handle the ground, has come in for significant support in the last few hours and should run a big race.
4:45 Curragh - Sharestan (5/4) - 16pt win - This would definitely be my Nap of today's high profile meeting at the Curragh. The horse does give weight to all of his rivals but I would be surprised if any of his opposition were good enough today to trouble him. Obviously the O'Brien pair have to be feared but I'm of the opinion that Learn prefers better ground and Tenth Star is entitled to need the run. The Wachman horse is interesting from a form point of view as his maiden win has worked out well but whether he is good enough at this point in his career to challenge the likes of Sharestan is doubtful.
7:00 Curragh - Definightly (3/1) - 7.5pt win - Received the call this morning and this horse is apparently well fancied today. We know that he handles the ground and his ability to stay further than the 5f will put him in a dominant position.
4:45 Curragh - Sharestan (5/4) - 16pt win - This would definitely be my Nap of today's high profile meeting at the Curragh. The horse does give weight to all of his rivals but I would be surprised if any of his opposition were good enough today to trouble him. Obviously the O'Brien pair have to be feared but I'm of the opinion that Learn prefers better ground and Tenth Star is entitled to need the run. The Wachman horse is interesting from a form point of view as his maiden win has worked out well but whether he is good enough at this point in his career to challenge the likes of Sharestan is doubtful.
7:00 Curragh - Definightly (3/1) - 7.5pt win - Received the call this morning and this horse is apparently well fancied today. We know that he handles the ground and his ability to stay further than the 5f will put him in a dominant position.
Info
Just received an interesting message from my usually guy about Michael Hill's mount Tipping Over in the 2:30 Newmarket. This horse has apparently been working well at home and a few people have been placing substantial e/w doubles on this horse and the Hill's horse Rugosa in the 5:35 at Windsor. On first blush I have to say that I quite fancied Sandreamer in the 2:30 but the word received for both Tipping Over and Rugosa were strong so I will be joining in and having win singles and an e/w double.
2:30 Newmarket - Tipping Over (5/1) - 5pt win
5:35 Windsor - Rugosa (4/1) - 5pt win
2.5pt e/w double
P.S. Also waiting on call about Definightly (7:00 Curragh) who I have received info for on both of its last 2 runs. With the ground sure to be to its liking tomorrow my first impression would be that this horse looks like great value at any price in excess of 3/1.
2:30 Newmarket - Tipping Over (5/1) - 5pt win
5:35 Windsor - Rugosa (4/1) - 5pt win
2.5pt e/w double
P.S. Also waiting on call about Definightly (7:00 Curragh) who I have received info for on both of its last 2 runs. With the ground sure to be to its liking tomorrow my first impression would be that this horse looks like great value at any price in excess of 3/1.
Friday, 29 June 2012
Tomorrow's Early Selections
Lots of really good racing tomorrow but I have a few selections which I'm going to post now because the prices of the respective runners have the potential to plummet over night.
The first selection is Michelangelo in the 2:00, he is currently priced up at 10/11 and I have absolutely no doubt that this horse will win this race. The horse feature on my 2yo bloodstock report last year and his performances this season have been incredibly impressive. I fully expect this one to go off much shorter than the current price and this is max bet material.
The second selection comes in the 4:05 maiden at Newmarket, the horse is Disclaimer and he is currently trading on the exchanges at 3/1. The horse has a very nice pedigree and you just get the feeling that the yard are ready to kick off their juvenile campaign at HQ tomorrow. I know that the Hill's runner is supposed to be a smart type but even they're very wary of Disclaimer and with the money certain to flood in this is one to get on early and if necessary take a small commission loss on the exchanges.
The third selection is Khawlah, she runs in the 3:00 at Newmarket and she is currently available at around 12/1. Now this isn't the most confident of selections but I followed this horse religiously last season in Dubai and it was common knowledge at that time that this filly had the potential to be one of the greatest ever to go through the Godolphin ranks. Her dominance over the racing world was stamped in emphatic fashion at the Carnival when she beat the boys to become the first Filly to win the UAE derby. After that race the intention was to head straight for the Oaks but she suffered a set back and instead returned over a year later in the Dahlia Stakes and my god she was disappointing and things didn't improve in her second run either. Obviously this makes her a very suspect betting proposition but seeing a horse of her type improve significantly on her third run of a campaign is not unheard of, especially in the UAE, and tomorrow would have to be viewed as a last chance saloon for her now as she faces her easiest race to date. At 12/1 she is worth an e/w bet and if the money comes (which I think it will) then there will be the opportunity to hedge and lay her off.
The final selection is Zenaat in the 2:40 at Chester and he is currently available at 5/1. From a form point of view this horse doesn't look to be anything special but his pedigree is incredibly impressive and he has had excuses for his two below par efforts this season. The yard has hit form with vengeance and of a mark of just 77 I would be amazed if this horse wasn't capable of improving, he did cost over 400,000gns as a yearling after all and is owned by very powerful connections who know how to spot a decent 3yo. .
Early Selections
2:00 Newmarket - Michelangelo 10/11 - 25pt win
2:40 Chester - Zenaat (5/1) - 5pt win
3:00 Newmarket - Khawlah 12/1 - 1.5pts e/w
4:05 Newmarket - Disclaimer 3/1 - 10pt win
So that's it on the early selection front but no doubt there will be one or two more and I will also be giving the low down on all of the Hill's runners before racing starts tomorrow.
Results
Michelangelo - 1st (+47.73) - Stunning performance from this very promising colt.
Zenaat - Unplaced (-5pts) - Very poor performance and difficult to see what connections will do with this horse now.
Khawal - Unplaced (-3pts) - A terrible performance once again and in my opinion its probably time to call time on this horses career or send her to the sales.
Disclaimer - Unplaced - (-10pts) - The horse travelled well through the race but just didn't pick up in the early stages. The placed horses all came from the rail which may be evidence of a slight bias but one things for sure the first three home will not be the horses to take from that race.
The first selection is Michelangelo in the 2:00, he is currently priced up at 10/11 and I have absolutely no doubt that this horse will win this race. The horse feature on my 2yo bloodstock report last year and his performances this season have been incredibly impressive. I fully expect this one to go off much shorter than the current price and this is max bet material.
The second selection comes in the 4:05 maiden at Newmarket, the horse is Disclaimer and he is currently trading on the exchanges at 3/1. The horse has a very nice pedigree and you just get the feeling that the yard are ready to kick off their juvenile campaign at HQ tomorrow. I know that the Hill's runner is supposed to be a smart type but even they're very wary of Disclaimer and with the money certain to flood in this is one to get on early and if necessary take a small commission loss on the exchanges.
The third selection is Khawlah, she runs in the 3:00 at Newmarket and she is currently available at around 12/1. Now this isn't the most confident of selections but I followed this horse religiously last season in Dubai and it was common knowledge at that time that this filly had the potential to be one of the greatest ever to go through the Godolphin ranks. Her dominance over the racing world was stamped in emphatic fashion at the Carnival when she beat the boys to become the first Filly to win the UAE derby. After that race the intention was to head straight for the Oaks but she suffered a set back and instead returned over a year later in the Dahlia Stakes and my god she was disappointing and things didn't improve in her second run either. Obviously this makes her a very suspect betting proposition but seeing a horse of her type improve significantly on her third run of a campaign is not unheard of, especially in the UAE, and tomorrow would have to be viewed as a last chance saloon for her now as she faces her easiest race to date. At 12/1 she is worth an e/w bet and if the money comes (which I think it will) then there will be the opportunity to hedge and lay her off.
The final selection is Zenaat in the 2:40 at Chester and he is currently available at 5/1. From a form point of view this horse doesn't look to be anything special but his pedigree is incredibly impressive and he has had excuses for his two below par efforts this season. The yard has hit form with vengeance and of a mark of just 77 I would be amazed if this horse wasn't capable of improving, he did cost over 400,000gns as a yearling after all and is owned by very powerful connections who know how to spot a decent 3yo. .
Early Selections
2:00 Newmarket - Michelangelo 10/11 - 25pt win
2:40 Chester - Zenaat (5/1) - 5pt win
3:00 Newmarket - Khawlah 12/1 - 1.5pts e/w
4:05 Newmarket - Disclaimer 3/1 - 10pt win
So that's it on the early selection front but no doubt there will be one or two more and I will also be giving the low down on all of the Hill's runners before racing starts tomorrow.
Results
Michelangelo - 1st (+47.73) - Stunning performance from this very promising colt.
Zenaat - Unplaced (-5pts) - Very poor performance and difficult to see what connections will do with this horse now.
Khawal - Unplaced (-3pts) - A terrible performance once again and in my opinion its probably time to call time on this horses career or send her to the sales.
Disclaimer - Unplaced - (-10pts) - The horse travelled well through the race but just didn't pick up in the early stages. The placed horses all came from the rail which may be evidence of a slight bias but one things for sure the first three home will not be the horses to take from that race.
9:10 Newmarket
I know I shouldn't but I'm going to side with Swendab (15/2) in this race. He hasn't looked to be in the same for this season but the running tactics employed in his last two runs have intrigued me and the form of his 3 wins last year have worked out very well and I believe that the handicapper has taken a real chance dropping him by 8lb. The jockey has a great strike rate on him and the nature of the track will suit his running style. The slight ease in the ground tempers my enthusiasm slightly but his opposition doesnt look to be up to much and he looks to be worth a bet.
Swendab (15/2) - 5pts e/w
Result - Unplaced (-10pts) and very poor.
Swendab (15/2) - 5pts e/w
Result - Unplaced (-10pts) and very poor.
Final Score
One of those days when every thing I touched turned to gold but I'm still not in profit for this P/L cycle yet so the hard work will continue tomorrow.
Starting Bank = 256.46 pts
Total Bets Placed = 79.50 pts
Total Return = 171.50pts
Total Profit = 92 pts
Overall Bank for P/L cycle 2 = 348.46
Revised total includes bet in the 9:10
Starting Bank = 256.46 pts
Total Bets Placed = 79.50 pts
Total Return = 171.50pts
Total Profit = 92 pts
Overall Bank for P/L cycle 2 = 348.46
Revised total includes bet in the 9:10
Newmarket 8:40
Last bet of a good day will be GREEK WAR (11/2) - 5pts e/w - There are plenty of exposed horses in this race and I have a feeling that this seasonal debutant from the powerful goldolphin yard may have what it takes to win first time out. Although his form from last season isn't particularly strong, his opening mark of 78 still looks a little on the low side and the further he goes trip wise the better he should be. The extra 2 furlongs and the high draw should do him the World of good and it will be interesting to see whether Mickael holds him up for one of his text book rides.
P.S. Another horse to watch out for in the market is the Gosden horse who wears first time blinkers today and this yard has a stunning strike rate when attaching first time aids.
P.S. Another horse to watch out for in the market is the Gosden horse who wears first time blinkers today and this yard has a stunning strike rate when attaching first time aids.
Curragh 7:30
Cracking performance by Ursa Major and a brilliant ride by the jockey who was caught out wide on the bend.
In the 7:30 I fancy the Oxx horse VEDANI. The horse won last time out on its second run and has a nice middle distance pedigree. His sire has a stunning record at the track and Verdani showed last time out that soft ground suits his running style. With Murtagh taking the ride once from Curtis I think we should see the horse improve significantly again today.
7:30 Curragh - Verdani (9/2) - 6pt win
Result = 2nd (-6pts)
In the 7:30 I fancy the Oxx horse VEDANI. The horse won last time out on its second run and has a nice middle distance pedigree. His sire has a stunning record at the track and Verdani showed last time out that soft ground suits his running style. With Murtagh taking the ride once from Curtis I think we should see the horse improve significantly again today.
7:30 Curragh - Verdani (9/2) - 6pt win
Result = 2nd (-6pts)
Curragh 7:00
Ursa Major (3/1) - 10pt win - Backed this horse each time it has run and has not let me down, connections believe the horse is good enough to win a race like this even off a revised mark and I fancy him against the O'Brien Horse.
Result - 1st (+40pts)
Result - 1st (+40pts)
Chester Tonight
Not much that really catches my eye at this particular meeting tonight but one horse which did was the Varian Handicap debutant in the 7:25. The horse, Al Baidaa has the pedigree of a middle distance performer and is related to a few nice types. He has previously been campaigned over 7-8 furlong and today steps up to 1m 2f off an opening mark of 79. Despite racing over inadequate trips in his last two races, he has performed well and the form looks pretty good. Usually with a horse from this yard I would wait to bet until right before the off in order to gauge how the market performs but I have a gut feeling that this one will be backed so I'm going to back it now and hope I haven't called it wrong.
7:25 Chester - AL BAIDAA (5/1) - 5pt win
Result = 1st (+30pts)
7:25 Chester - AL BAIDAA (5/1) - 5pt win
Result = 1st (+30pts)
Newmarket Tonight
Very nice little card tonight at Newmarket and although my personal position will stand or fall on the result of the Hill's alone I will be having a few other bets for P/L purposes.
6:30 - Perpetual Glory (20/1) - 0.75pts e/w - Yards first 2yo runner of the season and although I don't expect it to beat the likes of Sugar House and Reyaadah, she may run into some place money.
7:35 - Bayan (7/2) - 4pt win - Been following this horse this season with little reward so far but he is consistent and with Fallon in the saddle and blinkers tried maybe today will be his day.
8:05 - Catfish (4/1) - 3pt win - Another horse that I have backed before and with solid form in the book and conditions to suit, he should run well.
Results
Perpetual Glory = Unplaced (-1.5pt)
Bayan = Unplaced (-4pts)
Catfish = Unplaced (-3pts)
6:30 - Perpetual Glory (20/1) - 0.75pts e/w - Yards first 2yo runner of the season and although I don't expect it to beat the likes of Sugar House and Reyaadah, she may run into some place money.
7:35 - Bayan (7/2) - 4pt win - Been following this horse this season with little reward so far but he is consistent and with Fallon in the saddle and blinkers tried maybe today will be his day.
8:05 - Catfish (4/1) - 3pt win - Another horse that I have backed before and with solid form in the book and conditions to suit, he should run well.
Results
Perpetual Glory = Unplaced (-1.5pt)
Bayan = Unplaced (-4pts)
Catfish = Unplaced (-3pts)
3:55
We have dreamed (15/2) - 2pts ew - Front runner who will be suites by today's conditions, well drawn and also won the race last year
Result = Unplaced (-4pts)
Result = Unplaced (-4pts)
Today's Selections
Starting Bank = 256.46
3:20 Folkstone - Aye Aye Digby (9/4) - 10 pt win
4:30 Folkstone - Alfraamsey (9/4) - 10 pt win
More selections to follow.
Results = Aye Aye Digby - 2nd (-10pts)
Alfraamsey - 1st (32.50pts)
3:20 Folkstone - Aye Aye Digby (9/4) - 10 pt win
4:30 Folkstone - Alfraamsey (9/4) - 10 pt win
More selections to follow.
Results = Aye Aye Digby - 2nd (-10pts)
Alfraamsey - 1st (32.50pts)
Reyadaah
I got on this horse last night at 12/1 and I couldn't actually believe that the bookies had given the horse such a big price. The market has taken a kicking and we have seen a move of up to 75% with some firms this morning. The horse is thought to be a very smart prospect and is fully expected to make a winning debut, however the price has now gone and there is no value at 11/4-5/2 etc and therefore I would now be looking else where for an ew alternative. As the bet wasn't posted up earlier I will not be including it for P/L purposes.
Thursday, 28 June 2012
6:50 Hamilton
Stags Leap (3/1) - 10pt win.
Weather playing havoc with my selections but this horse put in a great performance last time out in a much better race. If he runs to that level again today then he wins the race, simple as that.
Weather playing havoc with my selections but this horse put in a great performance last time out in a much better race. If he runs to that level again today then he wins the race, simple as that.
Leicester Abandoned
With Leicester being abandoned due to water logging I will be placing a further 10pts on Parley to win at 2/1.
As far as Red Trump is concerned, the ground is an unknown but connections do believe that he has plenty of room to progress from his current mark. Obviously Regal Acclaim looks to be the major danger and I have had a 2pt RF with Him and Red Trump
As far as Red Trump is concerned, the ground is an unknown but connections do believe that he has plenty of room to progress from his current mark. Obviously Regal Acclaim looks to be the major danger and I have had a 2pt RF with Him and Red Trump
Update
3:40 - Appealing (9/1) - 2.5pts ew - expected to continue improving today and run a big race from a perfect draw. Interesting message for switcher as well who's run at Ascot was too bad to be true but both horse will have to be at the top of their game if they are to trouble Diala.
Wednesday, 27 June 2012
Tomorrows Selections
I'm out for most of the day tomorrow so have decided to post a few early selections for tomorrow just in case I don't have a chance to get online.
Bank = 275.96
4:30 Newcastle - Hydrant (11/2) - 5pts e/w
7:10 Leicester - Secret Beau (forecast price 8/1) - 2.5pts e/w
8:10 Leicester - Al Wajba (5/2) - 10pt win & a 1pt RF with Magic Destiny
8:20 Hamilton - Parley (5/1) - 5pts e/w
May have a few more bets to add tomorrow including a potential bet on the Hill's runner and a potential info horse in the big handicap at Warwick .
Bank = 275.96
4:30 Newcastle - Hydrant (11/2) - 5pts e/w
7:10 Leicester - Secret Beau (forecast price 8/1) - 2.5pts e/w
8:10 Leicester - Al Wajba (5/2) - 10pt win & a 1pt RF with Magic Destiny
8:20 Hamilton - Parley (5/1) - 5pts e/w
May have a few more bets to add tomorrow including a potential bet on the Hill's runner and a potential info horse in the big handicap at Warwick .
Final bet of a winning day
8:40 Bath - Topflight Princess (11/2 BOG) - 6pt win - really fancy this one, has some solid for on the book and on level weights must have a real chance. She is bred to be a sprinter and is unexposed as a turf performer. Her sire does very well at the track and his progeny usually have no problem with a bit of cut. At 11/2 there is a bit of ew value but in a small field it's all about the win bet for me.
Bank to be updated at the end of the day and at it feels good to finally have have hit a few consecutive winners today.
Race Report
Very unlucky for top flight there as she took a terrible stumble just as she was making her challenge. Credit to the jockey for easing her down after that and she is one to watch out for in the next few weeks.
Bank to be updated at the end of the day and at it feels good to finally have have hit a few consecutive winners today.
Race Report
Very unlucky for top flight there as she took a terrible stumble just as she was making her challenge. Credit to the jockey for easing her down after that and she is one to watch out for in the next few weeks.
Todays Selections
Bank - 226.76
3:50 Salisbury - Banraku (6/1) - 3pt win & 7pt place at evens (info)
4:05 Carlisle - Lexi Boy (10/3) - 6pt win
4:55 Salisbury - Moon Trip (8/1) - 1.5pts ew
6:40 Bath - Mysterious Man (2-1)- 15pt win
7:20 Kempton - Tabacco Road (7/1) - 2pts ew (care of TommyP)
7:50 Kempton - River Rapsody (11/4) - 8pt win
8:50 Kempton - Art Scholar (12/1) - 2.5pts ew (info)
5pt Double - Mystery Man (2/1) & Related (7/4)
3:50 Salisbury - Banraku (6/1) - 3pt win & 7pt place at evens (info)
4:05 Carlisle - Lexi Boy (10/3) - 6pt win
4:55 Salisbury - Moon Trip (8/1) - 1.5pts ew
6:40 Bath - Mysterious Man (2-1)- 15pt win
7:20 Kempton - Tabacco Road (7/1) - 2pts ew (care of TommyP)
7:50 Kempton - River Rapsody (11/4) - 8pt win
8:50 Kempton - Art Scholar (12/1) - 2.5pts ew (info)
5pt Double - Mystery Man (2/1) & Related (7/4)
Tuesday, 26 June 2012
Info
Hills Horse
Just The Judge is well fancied in what should work out to be a nice maiden. It is no secret that this horse has been performing well at home and the Sire has had a very good start to his stud career. The softish ground shouldn't be an issue as this horse will stay further that 7f in time and connection are hopeful that the horse develops into a nice type. The actually advice given was to back to place but by the time I got the call the price had gone due stable money and the non runner and for that reason I backed to win.
Amber Silk has an ew claim tonight but there are too many horses in the line up with stronger credentials and for that reason I won't be backing her and neither will my source. The general consensus is that the handicapper got carried away after the horses last win as the form looks poor and with Crowley and Fallon taking rides on very well backed horses it's probably best to give this one a miss tonight.
Just The Judge is well fancied in what should work out to be a nice maiden. It is no secret that this horse has been performing well at home and the Sire has had a very good start to his stud career. The softish ground shouldn't be an issue as this horse will stay further that 7f in time and connection are hopeful that the horse develops into a nice type. The actually advice given was to back to place but by the time I got the call the price had gone due stable money and the non runner and for that reason I backed to win.
Amber Silk has an ew claim tonight but there are too many horses in the line up with stronger credentials and for that reason I won't be backing her and neither will my source. The general consensus is that the handicapper got carried away after the horses last win as the form looks poor and with Crowley and Fallon taking rides on very well backed horses it's probably best to give this one a miss tonight.
Today's Selections
Bank - 211.01
6:30 Newton - Dandyvic (6/1) - 2pts ew
7:25 Newbury - Just the Judge (4/1) - 10pt win (info)
8:00 Newbury - Shenas Dream (7/4) - 12pt win
8:35 Newbury - Selfsame (7/2) 4pt win
8:45 Newton - Railway Rico (9/2) - 8pt win
* All bets BOG
6:30 Newton - Dandyvic (6/1) - 2pts ew
7:25 Newbury - Just the Judge (4/1) - 10pt win (info)
8:00 Newbury - Shenas Dream (7/4) - 12pt win
8:35 Newbury - Selfsame (7/2) 4pt win
8:45 Newton - Railway Rico (9/2) - 8pt win
* All bets BOG
Monday, 25 June 2012
Update
Just realized that I omitted Sir Pedro from my bets. The horse is up against seasoned performers and it will be difficult for him but he has shown promise at home after his debut and the yard have literally no idea how good this horse could be. I'm airing on the side of caution and have 6pts at 5/2 (bog)
Today's Selections
3:15 Wolves - Aquasulius (9/2) - 5 pts ew
6:30 Kill - Battling Boru (5/1) - 5pts ew
6:50 Thirsk - Strike Master (11/4) - 20pt win
7:40 Windsor - Cockney Dancer (11/2) - 5pts ew
Bank for the weekend and today will be updated this evening.
6:30 Kill - Battling Boru (5/1) - 5pts ew
6:50 Thirsk - Strike Master (11/4) - 20pt win
7:40 Windsor - Cockney Dancer (11/2) - 5pts ew
Bank for the weekend and today will be updated this evening.
Sunday, 24 June 2012
Today
5:10 Ponte -Dream Walker (11/4) - 16pt win
5:15 Gowan - Peking to Paris (8:1) - 2.5pts ew
5:50 Hereford - Blue Hills (11/4) - 12pt win
Saturday, 23 June 2012
Haydock Tonight
As well as the bet on the two Hill's horses I have just placed the following bets;
7:20 - Jamaican Bolt (10/3) - 12pt win - Pivotal gelding who will have no problem with the ground, unexposed and the support in the market would suggest that he is race fit on a return from a break from the track. The owner of the horse has a stunning record at the track and I think this one has a cracking chance.
8:50- Dolphin Rock (2/1) - 15pts win - Strong support for this horse and some interesting price discrepancies between respective firms as Willhill go 6/4. It is the form pick in the race and although the William's horse looks dangerous I believe he may be a potential bounce horse and his second string under Ryan Clark looks to be a more interesting candidate.
7:20 - Jamaican Bolt (10/3) - 12pt win - Pivotal gelding who will have no problem with the ground, unexposed and the support in the market would suggest that he is race fit on a return from a break from the track. The owner of the horse has a stunning record at the track and I think this one has a cracking chance.
8:50- Dolphin Rock (2/1) - 15pts win - Strong support for this horse and some interesting price discrepancies between respective firms as Willhill go 6/4. It is the form pick in the race and although the William's horse looks dangerous I believe he may be a potential bounce horse and his second string under Ryan Clark looks to be a more interesting candidate.
Red Explorer
Horse has been working well at home and is fit enough to win first time out. He will stay further than today's distance in time but connections believe this is a good place to start. The yard didn't want soft ground but they are hopeful that he will handle it and the non runners should make the easier to win. The horse isn't thought to be a really high class 2yo but he has shown promise at home and at 11/4 is thought to be worthy of a punt. They don't really fear any of the horses with previous experience but they do fear the Brown newcomer who is apparently well fancied.
I was going to leave this horse alone but my day has been soo bad it can't get much worse so I'm having 12pts at 11/4 but I would advised that people proceed with a bit of caution at the course tonight due to the terrible weather conditions.
I was going to leave this horse alone but my day has been soo bad it can't get much worse so I'm having 12pts at 11/4 but I would advised that people proceed with a bit of caution at the course tonight due to the terrible weather conditions.
Info
Terrible performance! Big loss and a real kick in the teeth. Back to the drawing board and I'm sorry to anyone that followed that shocker!
Update
Hills bets today are included in today's selections. Angel will fall won but was not tipped due to the fact there were a few question marks surrounding today's race and my guy wanted ew value. Bassterre was not tipped despite numerous pundits fancying it and it finished a laboured 3rd which was not a surprise. Obviously the yard will have winners which aren't tipped up here but I only back fancied horses which my source considers to be value. Not every winner from the yard will carry stable money and I think people need to understand that.
Todays Selections
4:30 Redcar - Tarooq (7/4) - 20pt win (NB) - SHould have too much class for the rest of this reduced field.
4:40 Ayr - West Leake Hare (8/1) - 1.5pts e/w - Blinkers expected to have the desired affect
8:20 Haydock - Kaafel (10/11) - 25pt win - NAP - weak race and this one fully expected to get the job done
9:05 Lingfield - Iguacu (9/1) - 1.5pts e/w - Value bet in a open looking race
Black Caviar to win by 5 lengths or more (9/4) - 20pt win - Absolute no brainer of a bet.
Friday, 22 June 2012
Update
Hoping this post will actually go up on the blog as I'm having serious technical issues with blogger at the moment.
8:15 Ayr - Daring Dream (9/2) - 8pt win
8:40 Newmarket - Dr Yes (4/1) - 5pt win
2nd Double
8:15 Ayr - Daring Dream (9/2) - 8pt win
8:40 Newmarket - Dr Yes (4/1) - 5pt win
2nd Double
Technical issues
Having some trouble with post tonight all bets which have been shown on threads which are now not visible will be included for PL purposes.
To clarify the bet was a losing one so won't be any increase in my PL because of the technical issues I just didn't want people thinking I had deliberately deleted a thread which contained a losing bet. The fact that I now receive a message questioning my credibility is laughable!
To clarify the bet was a losing one so won't be any increase in my PL because of the technical issues I just didn't want people thinking I had deliberately deleted a thread which contained a losing bet. The fact that I now receive a message questioning my credibility is laughable!
Today's Selections
Bank - 325.78
Ascot Selections
2:30 - Sendmylovetorose (16/1) - 1.5pt e/w & Amazonas (20/1) - 1pt e/w
3:05 - Noble Mission (4/1) - 5pt win
3:45 - Bugie D'Amore (16/1) - 1pt e/w
4:25 - French Navy (16/1) - 1pt e/w & Retrieve (20/1) - 1pt e/w
5:00 - Minimize Risk (6/1) -3pts e/w
5:35 - Noble Citizen (20/1) - 0.75 e/w
Doubles
Gatewood (7/2) & Astrology (5/6) - 2pts
6:50 Goodwood - We are city (12/1) -2pts e/w (info)
7:20 Goodwood - Heyaaraat (16/1) - 1pt e/w(info)
Ascot Selections
2:30 - Sendmylovetorose (16/1) - 1.5pt e/w & Amazonas (20/1) - 1pt e/w
3:05 - Noble Mission (4/1) - 5pt win
3:45 - Bugie D'Amore (16/1) - 1pt e/w
4:25 - French Navy (16/1) - 1pt e/w & Retrieve (20/1) - 1pt e/w
5:00 - Minimize Risk (6/1) -3pts e/w
5:35 - Noble Citizen (20/1) - 0.75 e/w
Doubles
Gatewood (7/2) & Astrology (5/6) - 2pts
6:50 Goodwood - We are city (12/1) -2pts e/w (info)
7:20 Goodwood - Heyaaraat (16/1) - 1pt e/w(info)
Thursday, 21 June 2012
Update
7:25 Fontwell - Baileys Storm (6/1) - 2pts ew - LawneyHill system qualifier and a big run expected.
Today's Selections
I have been invited back to ascot today by a friend on a corporate event so having stayed in a hotel last night I haven't had much time to look at many of the runners today. For that reason I will only be having a few bets at Ascot but have a few strong fancies at Ffos Las later so will post them up when I get home this evening. Unfortunately I still haven't updated the bank but normal service will be resumed tomorrow.
2:30 - Gale Force Ten (8/1) - 1.5 ew
2:30 - Cay Verde (3/1) - 6pt win nap
3:05 - Pink Damsel (14/1) - 1pt ew
3:45 - Colour Vision (9/2) - 4pt win
3:45 - 4 to beat 7 - 2pts
4:25 - Trader Jack (10/1) - 1pt ew
5:00 - Energizer (9/1) - 1.5pts ew
5:35 - Gabriel the great (7/1) - 1pt ew
Hills runners today at Warwick is well fancied but too short for connections to have a punt. A few have backed Hazel Lavery ew but she will have to run a blinder to get in the money today.
2:30 - Gale Force Ten (8/1) - 1.5 ew
2:30 - Cay Verde (3/1) - 6pt win nap
3:05 - Pink Damsel (14/1) - 1pt ew
3:45 - Colour Vision (9/2) - 4pt win
3:45 - 4 to beat 7 - 2pts
4:25 - Trader Jack (10/1) - 1pt ew
5:00 - Energizer (9/1) - 1.5pts ew
5:35 - Gabriel the great (7/1) - 1pt ew
Hills runners today at Warwick is well fancied but too short for connections to have a punt. A few have backed Hazel Lavery ew but she will have to run a blinder to get in the money today.
Wednesday, 20 June 2012
Today's Selections
At Ascot today so posting selections up from my phone. Bank will be updated when I get home this evening.
4:24 Ascot - Dimension (7/1) - 5pts ew - plenty of talk at the course about this one and it should go very close. My guy had a word with Fanshawes racing manager and it should be the horse to beat
6:10 Kempton - Hurakan (8/1) 3pt ew
8:40 Kempton - Fade to Grey (3/1) - 15pt win
Captain Bertie is thought to be a strong ew bet today but he won for me last time out and today he will run without my financial backing.
4:24 Ascot - Dimension (7/1) - 5pts ew - plenty of talk at the course about this one and it should go very close. My guy had a word with Fanshawes racing manager and it should be the horse to beat
6:10 Kempton - Hurakan (8/1) 3pt ew
8:40 Kempton - Fade to Grey (3/1) - 15pt win
Captain Bertie is thought to be a strong ew bet today but he won for me last time out and today he will run without my financial backing.
Tuesday, 19 June 2012
update
Having read the blog this morning I received an earful of abuse from my source who couldn't believe that I had taken the decision not to at least have an e/w bet on Englishman. I know that if I don't back him now he will hose up and I will look like a mug so I'm going to have 2.5pts e/w at 10/1 and see what happens.
Monday, 18 June 2012
Royal Ascot - Day 1
Great day today and I'm hopeful that by the end of this week I will have turned things around in what has been a difficult P/L cycle.
Starting Bank = 365.00
3:05 Ascot - Ortensia (5/1) - 10pts e/w - I am a massive fan of this horse and it's form is absolutely rock solid. Having paid close attention to the Dubai Carnival this year this Filly's performance in the Al Quoz Sprint was one of the most impressive things I saw. Her winning time was only 30 seconds outside of a course record and her last 400m was significantly quicker than anything else in the field. Her Jockey that day timed his run to perfection and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see tomorrows race unfold in a similar fashion. I haven't paid close attention to this race but I am reliably informed that she is in tip top shape and her visionary trainer has been pulling out all the stops to ensure that his stable star puts in a respectable performance. Obviously there is no such thing as a sure thing in these types of races but I would be horrified if this horse didn't at least place and if i'm honest, I believe she will be vert difficult to beat.
3:45 - Foxtrot Romeo (14/1) - 2.5pts e/w - I am fully aware that Power should be difficult to beat in this race and he is a worthy favourite but I really fancy this horse. I was impressed by his performance in the Irish 2000 guineas and he is from a bloodline which Smart knows all about. The horse itself is a monster of a colt and having previously been campaigned on good ground he should thrive under tomorrows conditions (Danehill Progeny). In my opinion if he can run to the same level of form as in his last race then he should go well and at the moment he is a very appealing price for e/w purposes.
4:25 - Artigiano (18/1) - 2.5pts e/w - Now a few people have been asking me whether Englishman is fancied and the answer is a resounding YES with many in the yard placing substantial e.w bets, but I have taken a decision to side with my own selection who looks massively over-priced. When Funk Soul Brother made his debut my Source was told to watch out for Artigiano. He was informed that the horse was expected to need the run that day but would make massive strides this season. His performance in that maiden was eye catching to say the least, he was eased into contention in the early stages, running green and showing a tendency to hang. But as the race unfolded his improvement was evident and he stayed on well to finish 3rd. His next run came in a weak looking maiden at Leicester and although I didn't back him my man lumped on and the horse absolutely destroyed the field without Frankie ever having to get serious. Clearly his form isn't as strong as some of the horse's in tomorrows line up but his bloodline suggests that he can be a precocious 2yo and I think the bookies may have seriously underestimated his chances especially as Frankie was very vocal after that race at Leicester with regard to his respective chances in tomorrows renewal.
As far as Funk Soul Brother is concerned from the Hill's yard he isn't thought to be as far forward as his stable mate but he would still have an e/w shout if running up to his best but the feeling in the camp is that Englishman is the horse to be on.
Two more to add at Ascot and one at Thirsk;
2:30 Ascot - Worthaad (40/1 BOG) - 1pt e/w
5:35 Ascot - Smoothtalkinrascal (9/1) - 2pts e/w
3:25 Thirsk - Lacily (9/2) - 6pt win
INFO - 5:00 Ascot - ELYAADI (8/1) - 5pts e/w - This horse is fully expected to go very close to winning this one and I know plenty of people who have lumped on in a big way over the last few hours. I will be gutted if he gets done over by Al Khawanjee who gave me a massive win a few months ago but when you receive a word as strong as this you have to pile in, cross your fingers and toes and hope for a win!
Starting Bank = 365.00
3:05 Ascot - Ortensia (5/1) - 10pts e/w - I am a massive fan of this horse and it's form is absolutely rock solid. Having paid close attention to the Dubai Carnival this year this Filly's performance in the Al Quoz Sprint was one of the most impressive things I saw. Her winning time was only 30 seconds outside of a course record and her last 400m was significantly quicker than anything else in the field. Her Jockey that day timed his run to perfection and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see tomorrows race unfold in a similar fashion. I haven't paid close attention to this race but I am reliably informed that she is in tip top shape and her visionary trainer has been pulling out all the stops to ensure that his stable star puts in a respectable performance. Obviously there is no such thing as a sure thing in these types of races but I would be horrified if this horse didn't at least place and if i'm honest, I believe she will be vert difficult to beat.
3:45 - Foxtrot Romeo (14/1) - 2.5pts e/w - I am fully aware that Power should be difficult to beat in this race and he is a worthy favourite but I really fancy this horse. I was impressed by his performance in the Irish 2000 guineas and he is from a bloodline which Smart knows all about. The horse itself is a monster of a colt and having previously been campaigned on good ground he should thrive under tomorrows conditions (Danehill Progeny). In my opinion if he can run to the same level of form as in his last race then he should go well and at the moment he is a very appealing price for e/w purposes.
4:25 - Artigiano (18/1) - 2.5pts e/w - Now a few people have been asking me whether Englishman is fancied and the answer is a resounding YES with many in the yard placing substantial e.w bets, but I have taken a decision to side with my own selection who looks massively over-priced. When Funk Soul Brother made his debut my Source was told to watch out for Artigiano. He was informed that the horse was expected to need the run that day but would make massive strides this season. His performance in that maiden was eye catching to say the least, he was eased into contention in the early stages, running green and showing a tendency to hang. But as the race unfolded his improvement was evident and he stayed on well to finish 3rd. His next run came in a weak looking maiden at Leicester and although I didn't back him my man lumped on and the horse absolutely destroyed the field without Frankie ever having to get serious. Clearly his form isn't as strong as some of the horse's in tomorrows line up but his bloodline suggests that he can be a precocious 2yo and I think the bookies may have seriously underestimated his chances especially as Frankie was very vocal after that race at Leicester with regard to his respective chances in tomorrows renewal.
As far as Funk Soul Brother is concerned from the Hill's yard he isn't thought to be as far forward as his stable mate but he would still have an e/w shout if running up to his best but the feeling in the camp is that Englishman is the horse to be on.
Two more to add at Ascot and one at Thirsk;
2:30 Ascot - Worthaad (40/1 BOG) - 1pt e/w
5:35 Ascot - Smoothtalkinrascal (9/1) - 2pts e/w
3:25 Thirsk - Lacily (9/2) - 6pt win
INFO - 5:00 Ascot - ELYAADI (8/1) - 5pts e/w - This horse is fully expected to go very close to winning this one and I know plenty of people who have lumped on in a big way over the last few hours. I will be gutted if he gets done over by Al Khawanjee who gave me a massive win a few months ago but when you receive a word as strong as this you have to pile in, cross your fingers and toes and hope for a win!
Today's Selections
Yesterday was one of those days when a little bit more luck was needed as I landed 1 winner and 2 places from my 3 selections. In an attempt to get things back on track I'm concentrating on the AW today which is my bread and butter and I think my three selections all have very good chances of getting the job done.
Starting Bank = 315.00
3:00 Wolves - Restless Bay (5/2) - 8pt win - At the weights this horse looks to have a great chance, he has form at the track and if he runs anywhere near his mark then he should easily be good enough to win against today's opposition. He has the top speed rating in the field and his trainer has a solid record in sellers which is always a good thing in this particular category of race. The only real danger looks to be the Turner horse and he could reward forecast backers but for me Restless Bay is the only potential winner of this race.
3:30 Wolves - Savida (2/1) - 20pt win - I have to say that I was amazed to see this horse priced up at 2/1 this morning as it really should be considerably shorter. Not only is she getting a weight allowance from the market leader, but her form is superior and so is her pedigree. Her recent race at Kempton was a cracking performance as she finished 2nd by a head to a horse rated at 71. The time of that race was also fast for a maiden of its type and she record an impressive TS rating. Her next race, on first glance looked to be a bit disappointing as she was turned over at a short price but the winner of that race heads to Ascot this week and time may show that she bumped into a potentially smart rival that day. Back on her favoured surface with blinkers fitted and the assistance of Ryan Moore, I fully expect this one to get the job done and I was very close to max betting this one.
5:00 Wolves - Goldream (9/4) - 8pt win - this looks like a weak maiden and having discarded the Charlton horse there looks to be only one winner.
Sunday, 17 June 2012
Today's Selections
A few people will remember that I received some anti-post info for Definightly last month but the horse was withdrawn due to the ground. Today he turns out again in the 4:00 at Salisbury and back on softish ground a very bold show is expected and although the Ryan runner is a major danger, this one is expected to do the business today.
Bnk = 312.91
2:20 Salisbury - QUIZ MISTRESS (4/1) - 5 pt win
4:00 Salisbury - DEFINIGHTLY (4/1) - 12.91 pts
Update - 12:20
3:25 Salisbury - Ensejaam (5/2) - 10pt win (info)
Bnk = 312.91
2:20 Salisbury - QUIZ MISTRESS (4/1) - 5 pt win
4:00 Salisbury - DEFINIGHTLY (4/1) - 12.91 pts
Update - 12:20
3:25 Salisbury - Ensejaam (5/2) - 10pt win (info)
Saturday, 16 June 2012
Update
Not the results I wanted to see upon looking at my racing post app this evening. I'm now relying on an info horse in the 8:35 Lingfield to get my out of a major hole.
Strike Force 10/1 bog - 5 pts ew
Strike Force 10/1 bog - 5 pts ew
Today's Selection
I'am off to a wedding today so no time for write ups. I will be having a few small e/w bets and one large win single and I will update the bank etc when I get home later.
2:35 York = Barren Brook (14/1) - 1pt e.w
4:50 Bath - Maccabees (10/1) - 1pt e/w
4:00 Sandown - Jack Luey (2/1) - 25pt win
5:15 York - Ginger Ted (12/1) - 1pts e/w
2:35 York = Barren Brook (14/1) - 1pt e.w
4:50 Bath - Maccabees (10/1) - 1pt e/w
4:00 Sandown - Jack Luey (2/1) - 25pt win
5:15 York - Ginger Ted (12/1) - 1pts e/w
Friday, 15 June 2012
Update
Last bet of the day;
3:50 Sandown - Emmuska (4/1) - 10pt win
Very poor performance from Emmuska and the suspicion now has to be that she hasn't trained on which is such a shame because I had high hopes for her.
Update - 3:50
My brother has just got in touch with a tip for HAZZELRIGG in the 4:10 at York. He does know about racing but is new to betting so probably not a great idea to follow the horse blind but I have had a look and it looks to have a shout so I have had 1pt e/w at 20/1.
3:50 Sandown - Emmuska (4/1) - 10pt win
Very poor performance from Emmuska and the suspicion now has to be that she hasn't trained on which is such a shame because I had high hopes for her.
Update - 3:50
My brother has just got in touch with a tip for HAZZELRIGG in the 4:10 at York. He does know about racing but is new to betting so probably not a great idea to follow the horse blind but I have had a look and it looks to have a shout so I have had 1pt e/w at 20/1.
Today's Selections
I won't be posting today's picks until later today but I just wanted to give everyone a heads up on the Hill's runner Regal Dan in the 2:10 Sandown.
This horse has divided opinion in the camp today. There is no doubt that his previous form is the strongest on offer and that he is a potentially smart individual but there is a major question mark surrounding the ground. My man was not convinced by his performance at Doncaster on good /soft and despite the slow start he felt the horse looked laboured. However, he is of the opinion that even with soft ground this horse should be a class above anything else in the field if he runs up to his previous ratings. It therefore puts everyone in a difficult position but his final thought on the matter was that if the ground had been good, this horse would be priced up nearer evens than 3/1 and therefore the current available price of 9/4 looks tasty. After plenty of deliberation he decided to have a bet but plenty in the yard have kept their money in their pockets and I have decided to as well. With more rain forecast and condition deteriorating I think the lack of stamina in the horses pedigree may well be his downfall and at the current price I don't want to take the risk. One thing is for sure though, now that I have taken the decision not to back it, it will bolt up!!
Today's Selections together with a message regarding the other Hill's runner will be posted up later this morning.
Update - 11:00am
Plenty of people contacting me about White Frost and all I can tell you at this time is that both myself and my source will be backing POLAR KITE e/w (small stakes). Its a wide open race and whoever people decided to back they shouldn't get too carried away as anything could win this one.
Today's Bets - Starting Bank - 360.91
2:50 Musselburgh - OASIS CANNES (5/1) - 2.5pts e/w - Horse from my alerts and very interesting that Precott sends him to Musselburgh. It's his only runner on the card, he has a cracking strike rate at the track and this horse is surely capable of winning a maiden.
4:45 York - POLAR KITE (40/1) - 1pt e/w - Info
7:20 Clonmel - EIGHTYBARACKSTREET (4/1) - 5pts e/w - Not an info selection but a very strong fancy from my man in Ireland from a form point of view and with Geraghty back in the saddle this one looks to have a real chance. Only danger is The Bull Hayes and that is why have chosen to go e/w.
8:35 Goodwood - RIDDLEMASTER (9/1) - 1pt e/w - Just a small e/w bet on this one, horse has a nice pedigree and could do the business first time out in a maiden which lacks strength and depth.
9:05 Goodwood - LOVERS TALE (7/2) - 10pt win - Horse on an upward trend, trainer in amazing form, jockey 3 from 4 on the horse, winner on soft ground and suit by the nature of the Goodwood course. This looks like a no brainer to me.
This horse has divided opinion in the camp today. There is no doubt that his previous form is the strongest on offer and that he is a potentially smart individual but there is a major question mark surrounding the ground. My man was not convinced by his performance at Doncaster on good /soft and despite the slow start he felt the horse looked laboured. However, he is of the opinion that even with soft ground this horse should be a class above anything else in the field if he runs up to his previous ratings. It therefore puts everyone in a difficult position but his final thought on the matter was that if the ground had been good, this horse would be priced up nearer evens than 3/1 and therefore the current available price of 9/4 looks tasty. After plenty of deliberation he decided to have a bet but plenty in the yard have kept their money in their pockets and I have decided to as well. With more rain forecast and condition deteriorating I think the lack of stamina in the horses pedigree may well be his downfall and at the current price I don't want to take the risk. One thing is for sure though, now that I have taken the decision not to back it, it will bolt up!!
Today's Selections together with a message regarding the other Hill's runner will be posted up later this morning.
Update - 11:00am
Plenty of people contacting me about White Frost and all I can tell you at this time is that both myself and my source will be backing POLAR KITE e/w (small stakes). Its a wide open race and whoever people decided to back they shouldn't get too carried away as anything could win this one.
Today's Bets - Starting Bank - 360.91
2:50 Musselburgh - OASIS CANNES (5/1) - 2.5pts e/w - Horse from my alerts and very interesting that Precott sends him to Musselburgh. It's his only runner on the card, he has a cracking strike rate at the track and this horse is surely capable of winning a maiden.
4:45 York - POLAR KITE (40/1) - 1pt e/w - Info
7:20 Clonmel - EIGHTYBARACKSTREET (4/1) - 5pts e/w - Not an info selection but a very strong fancy from my man in Ireland from a form point of view and with Geraghty back in the saddle this one looks to have a real chance. Only danger is The Bull Hayes and that is why have chosen to go e/w.
8:35 Goodwood - RIDDLEMASTER (9/1) - 1pt e/w - Just a small e/w bet on this one, horse has a nice pedigree and could do the business first time out in a maiden which lacks strength and depth.
9:05 Goodwood - LOVERS TALE (7/2) - 10pt win - Horse on an upward trend, trainer in amazing form, jockey 3 from 4 on the horse, winner on soft ground and suit by the nature of the Goodwood course. This looks like a no brainer to me.
Thursday, 14 June 2012
Update
Just received a last minute call for Miss Cato in the 3:25. I have had 2pts on the win at 7/1 and this horse is apparently there to get the job done
UPDATE - 5:15
There are some rumours going round the course at Newbury that Sail Home is going to be the subject of a gamble in the lucky last. The trainer and Jockey have a good strike rate and it looks to be worth an e/w bet. I have had 2.5pt e/w at 11/2.
UPDATE - 5:15
There are some rumours going round the course at Newbury that Sail Home is going to be the subject of a gamble in the lucky last. The trainer and Jockey have a good strike rate and it looks to be worth an e/w bet. I have had 2.5pt e/w at 11/2.
Today's Selections
Painful day yesterday as all three of my runners placed and my big bet of the day was withdrawn at the start. I'm in the process of taking a look through the cards now but I have one bet already placed after a phone call with the Hill's yard early this morning I lumped on Razor Bill who is expected to do the business today and has the makings of a smart 3yo.
Starting Bank - 338.91
4:45 Nottingham - RAZOR BILL (9/4) - 20 point win
Update - 10:40
9:20 Haydock - SEA FEVER (15/8 BOG) - 16 point win - This horse really should record its second victory tonight under Kirsty. She is a jockey to follow on favourites, as in the last year she has recorded a 50% win rate on her jolly's (11 runs - 6 wins - 3 places). The horse looks like a smart prospect and with conditions very similar to that of its last win I expect it to win and I also expect it to be heavily backed.
Update - 12:00
Info horse received - 4:30 Newbury - Halling Dancer (5/1 Bog) - 2.5 pts e/w - Not sure how reliable this is but the guy has given me one or two winners in the past and from a form point of view its should at least place so hopefully its a no win no lose situation.
Starting Bank - 338.91
4:45 Nottingham - RAZOR BILL (9/4) - 20 point win
Update - 10:40
9:20 Haydock - SEA FEVER (15/8 BOG) - 16 point win - This horse really should record its second victory tonight under Kirsty. She is a jockey to follow on favourites, as in the last year she has recorded a 50% win rate on her jolly's (11 runs - 6 wins - 3 places). The horse looks like a smart prospect and with conditions very similar to that of its last win I expect it to win and I also expect it to be heavily backed.
Update - 12:00
Info horse received - 4:30 Newbury - Halling Dancer (5/1 Bog) - 2.5 pts e/w - Not sure how reliable this is but the guy has given me one or two winners in the past and from a form point of view its should at least place so hopefully its a no win no lose situation.
Wednesday, 13 June 2012
Update
Gutted about the withdrawal of the fav in the last race as I thought it had a great chance.
One more selection for tonight as I now have a few points to play with.
7:10 - Howeward Strut (9/1) - 2.5pts e/w. The Hills yard believe that their runner at least has an ew chance buy I'm backing this one as he is one from my alerts and I have been waiting for him to venture back on to the AW
One more selection for tonight as I now have a few points to play with.
7:10 - Howeward Strut (9/1) - 2.5pts e/w. The Hills yard believe that their runner at least has an ew chance buy I'm backing this one as he is one from my alerts and I have been waiting for him to venture back on to the AW
Today's Selections
Bank = 339.41
3:30 Beverly - Gadobout Dancer (8/1) - 2.5pts e/w - Back to its last winning mark, off a bottom weight, only runner on the card for the trainer and has come in for considerable money in the last few hours.
3:50 Haydock - Tmaan (4/1) - 5pt win - The form of some of his races last season including his win at Bath now look strong and if the horse is wound up first time out, it should run well at a nice price.
6:50 Hamilton - Hopes and Dreams (7/4) - 20pt win - Miss Burke is a favourite backers dream (40% win when riding Favs on turf) and with conditions looking ideal for the horse today I believe that it should get another 1 next to its name tonight.
3:30 Beverly - Gadobout Dancer (8/1) - 2.5pts e/w - Back to its last winning mark, off a bottom weight, only runner on the card for the trainer and has come in for considerable money in the last few hours.
3:50 Haydock - Tmaan (4/1) - 5pt win - The form of some of his races last season including his win at Bath now look strong and if the horse is wound up first time out, it should run well at a nice price.
6:50 Hamilton - Hopes and Dreams (7/4) - 20pt win - Miss Burke is a favourite backers dream (40% win when riding Favs on turf) and with conditions looking ideal for the horse today I believe that it should get another 1 next to its name tonight.
Tuesday, 12 June 2012
Update
6:10 - commemoration day (10/1 BOG) - 2 pts ew. Horse has been out of form recently by Longsdon reaches for his tried and tested first time headgear and I believe that could make all the difference
Info update
Village Green - This horse is very smart and should develop into a nice type over the summer. If the ground had been good today then a few in the yard would have taken on e/w bets but in the current conditions it's unlikely that the horse will run to his full potential. Despite that no-one in the camp would be surprised if this one did run well because he has been working well at home and compared to the rest of the runners in the field is an unknown quantity. Advice = No Bet this time wait for good ground.
Interestingly my guy actually tried to buy one of the other horses in the field (Missus Mill's) as he is following her Sire but he believes she will probably be more of threat once she has been awarded a mark so no bet on that one either.
I do have one bet to add though and then that's it for this afternoon - 3:00 Salisbury KINGSDINE (4/1) - 5pt win and 1pt RF with Kingswingford = Total Stake = 7pts
Interestingly my guy actually tried to buy one of the other horses in the field (Missus Mill's) as he is following her Sire but he believes she will probably be more of threat once she has been awarded a mark so no bet on that one either.
I do have one bet to add though and then that's it for this afternoon - 3:00 Salisbury KINGSDINE (4/1) - 5pt win and 1pt RF with Kingswingford = Total Stake = 7pts
Today's Selections
Starting bank - 356.01
2:00 Salisbury - Jontleman (5/2) - 6pt win - like the look of this horse from a pedigree point of view and his performance on debut looks to be the best form on offer in this poor maiden.
3:50 Lingfield - PISCEAN (6/5 place) - 10pts - I would be very surprised if this horse finished out of the top 3 with Spencer booked to ride (100% record on the horse).
4:20 Lingfield - Diamond Mark (6/1 Bog) - 2pts e/w - Bit of an e/w bet to nowhere but this horse takes a big drop in class today and on my ratings should take all the beating.
Waiting on a call from the Hill's yard about their runners today and on first glance he looks like an interesting prospect so could be lined up with Fallon booked to ride, we will have to wait and see.
I'm off out for a few hours now but will take a look at this evening cards when I get back and may have one or two further selections.
2:00 Salisbury - Jontleman (5/2) - 6pt win - like the look of this horse from a pedigree point of view and his performance on debut looks to be the best form on offer in this poor maiden.
3:50 Lingfield - PISCEAN (6/5 place) - 10pts - I would be very surprised if this horse finished out of the top 3 with Spencer booked to ride (100% record on the horse).
4:20 Lingfield - Diamond Mark (6/1 Bog) - 2pts e/w - Bit of an e/w bet to nowhere but this horse takes a big drop in class today and on my ratings should take all the beating.
Waiting on a call from the Hill's yard about their runners today and on first glance he looks like an interesting prospect so could be lined up with Fallon booked to ride, we will have to wait and see.
I'm off out for a few hours now but will take a look at this evening cards when I get back and may have one or two further selections.
Monday, 11 June 2012
Info
Noble Bull - This horse has the profile of a reasonable type and has been working well at home. Obviously he is out of a first season Sire so the yard aren't 100% as to how to play him but early signs suggest that his entry in next years Derby is a bit optimistic. He is up against a few horse's tonight that have the benefit of race experience and there is also a question-mark surrounding the current going so even though he is a nice price for e/w purposes my man will not be getting involved but he should come on for the run and will be one to watch out for in the coming months. A few in the yard have placed small e/w bets but my guy believes this one will be better over further on good ground.
Overrider - My guy likes this horse and his attitude and work at home has been above average. He comes from a sire which the yard know well and they have already had success with Funk Soul Brother this season who won first time out. Although he is not as promising as that individual he has a great turn of foot and his action would suggest that he should handle the ground and the nature of the course. Although the race will be viewed as part of his educational process my man believes that he may have a shout and has had a small e/w bet.
Red Sensor - Last season connections thought that this horse had the makings of a decent sprinter but he hasn't really fulfilled that potential to date and he has shown signs of mental weakness recently. The form of his juvenile races hasn't worked out particularly well either which has led many to believe that he may not be well handicapped off his current mark. Despite that he is unexposed over today's trip and he should handle the going so has a chance but there are plenty of unexposed runners in the line up and my guy fears that he may be vulnerable to an improver. He won't be having a bet today but is hopeful that the horse will get his act together and run a good race but with no e/w value in the race he does not feel that the horse is a reasonable betting prospect today.
My Bets = Overrider (14/1 BOG) - 1pt e/w
Update 7:10 - Interesting phone from my man in the Hill's yard who is at Windsor today and has heard that TANGO SKY is quietly fancied to do the business in the 7:40. He hardly ever bets at the track but has had a small win bet and I will follow him and have 5pts on the win BOG at 9/2
Overrider - My guy likes this horse and his attitude and work at home has been above average. He comes from a sire which the yard know well and they have already had success with Funk Soul Brother this season who won first time out. Although he is not as promising as that individual he has a great turn of foot and his action would suggest that he should handle the ground and the nature of the course. Although the race will be viewed as part of his educational process my man believes that he may have a shout and has had a small e/w bet.
Red Sensor - Last season connections thought that this horse had the makings of a decent sprinter but he hasn't really fulfilled that potential to date and he has shown signs of mental weakness recently. The form of his juvenile races hasn't worked out particularly well either which has led many to believe that he may not be well handicapped off his current mark. Despite that he is unexposed over today's trip and he should handle the going so has a chance but there are plenty of unexposed runners in the line up and my guy fears that he may be vulnerable to an improver. He won't be having a bet today but is hopeful that the horse will get his act together and run a good race but with no e/w value in the race he does not feel that the horse is a reasonable betting prospect today.
My Bets = Overrider (14/1 BOG) - 1pt e/w
Update 7:10 - Interesting phone from my man in the Hill's yard who is at Windsor today and has heard that TANGO SKY is quietly fancied to do the business in the 7:40. He hardly ever bets at the track but has had a small win bet and I will follow him and have 5pts on the win BOG at 9/2
Today's Selections
Starting Bank - 365.51
Just the one bet today unless the Hill's camp have a fancied runner at Windsor later and I am expecting a call around 1 on that front.
6:40 Windsor - FOXHAVEN (6/1) - 5pts e/w
Just the one bet today unless the Hill's camp have a fancied runner at Windsor later and I am expecting a call around 1 on that front.
6:40 Windsor - FOXHAVEN (6/1) - 5pts e/w
Saturday, 9 June 2012
Final Bet
Windsor 7:30 - Ginger Ted (14/1) - 3 pts ew.
Today has been terrible and once again conditions have taken there toll. I will update the bank (which has taken a kicking today) first thing tomorrow and hopefully get things back on track because it's been a poor few days.
Today has been terrible and once again conditions have taken there toll. I will update the bank (which has taken a kicking today) first thing tomorrow and hopefully get things back on track because it's been a poor few days.
Update
4:15 Chester - JUNGLE BAY 7/2 - 6 pt win & 1pt RF with FLAMEOFTHEFOREST
4:50 Chester - RUSTY ROCKET (8/1 BOG) - 3pts e/w (INFO)
4:35 Newmarket - PEARL ACCLAIM (EVENS) - 15point win.
Thats it for the time being but maybe one or two to come this evening.
4:50 Chester - RUSTY ROCKET (8/1 BOG) - 3pts e/w (INFO)
4:35 Newmarket - PEARL ACCLAIM (EVENS) - 15point win.
Thats it for the time being but maybe one or two to come this evening.
Today's Selection
I am in a massive rush today so will get selections up as and when I can. My first and most confident selection of the day is;
1:45 Newmarket - FRASERBURGH (4/1) - 15pt win
1:45 Newmarket - FRASERBURGH (4/1) - 15pt win
Friday, 8 June 2012
Today's Selections
Great day yesterday as I found 4 winning selections from 6 bets and one had an SP of 25/1! Despite that solid performance I'm still not in profit for this cycle so I need to continue that run today.
Starting Bank = 447.88
1:40 Newmarket - SUMMER DREAM (25/1) - 0.50pt e/w
3:55 Newmarket - ESCAPE TO GLORY (4/1) - 5pt win & THELADYINQUESTION 1pt e/w (7/1)
6:50 Goodwood - NAVE (3/1) - 15pt win
7:35 Goodwood - AUSSIE REIGNS (14/1) - 1pt e/w
8:20 Doncaster - MAGIC DESTINY (3/1) - 10pt win
8:20 Doncaster - THANE OF CAWDOR (12/1) - 1pt e/w
Starting Bank = 447.88
1:40 Newmarket - SUMMER DREAM (25/1) - 0.50pt e/w
3:55 Newmarket - ESCAPE TO GLORY (4/1) - 5pt win & THELADYINQUESTION 1pt e/w (7/1)
6:50 Goodwood - NAVE (3/1) - 15pt win
7:35 Goodwood - AUSSIE REIGNS (14/1) - 1pt e/w
8:20 Doncaster - MAGIC DESTINY (3/1) - 10pt win
8:20 Doncaster - THANE OF CAWDOR (12/1) - 1pt e/w
Thursday, 7 June 2012
Info
Slight delay with the Hill's info as my guy is having some trouble with his mobile. Before we got cut off he did tell me that Lawn Jamil is not an appealing betting prospect in the 3:10 but he has heard a positive word for Holly Martins but will not be having a bet himself. He has no line of communication with Michael Hill's but from a form point of view he expects his mount to run well also.
Rest of the information will be passed on as soon as he gets back in contact.
UPDATE - 4:25
Still struggling to talk to my guy for any length of time but the word for Pieces of Cake is that he is expected to place and plenty on the yard got on e/w earlier in the day. I've just had 10pts at evens for a place and that looks like reasonable value as the horse should go off shorter than its current price. The original feeling was that the horse should go close to winning the race but there are apparently very positive vibes behind Niger and Admiralty and that tempered connections confidence slightly.
Rest of the information will be passed on as soon as he gets back in contact.
UPDATE - 4:25
Still struggling to talk to my guy for any length of time but the word for Pieces of Cake is that he is expected to place and plenty on the yard got on e/w earlier in the day. I've just had 10pts at evens for a place and that looks like reasonable value as the horse should go off shorter than its current price. The original feeling was that the horse should go close to winning the race but there are apparently very positive vibes behind Niger and Admiralty and that tempered connections confidence slightly.
Today's Selections
Starting Bank 397.25
6:15 Sandown - Rhamnus (4/5 BOG) - 25 pt win
7:45 Wetherby - Merrydown (2/1 place) - 8 pts
8:50 Wetherby - Montoyas Son (7/1) - 2pt win & 7pt place (5/2)
9:20 Wetherby - Portway Flyer (5/2 place) - 8pts
Write up's on the Hill's runners today will be posted up around lunchtime
6:15 Sandown - Rhamnus (4/5 BOG) - 25 pt win
7:45 Wetherby - Merrydown (2/1 place) - 8 pts
8:50 Wetherby - Montoyas Son (7/1) - 2pt win & 7pt place (5/2)
9:20 Wetherby - Portway Flyer (5/2 place) - 8pts
Write up's on the Hill's runners today will be posted up around lunchtime
Wednesday, 6 June 2012
Today's Selections
Terrible few days and my betting bank has taken a real hit. The weekends festivities are now over, I have my head back in the game and I'm hunting down winners!
2:30 Nottingham - DEMORA (13/8) - 20pt win
3:40 Nottingham - MACABEES (20/1) - 1pt e/w
5:40 Fontwell - HERONRY (8/5) - 25pt win
Edit - 2:40
7:00 Kempton - LAATAFREET (7/4) - 20pt win
2:30 Nottingham - DEMORA (13/8) - 20pt win
3:40 Nottingham - MACABEES (20/1) - 1pt e/w
5:40 Fontwell - HERONRY (8/5) - 25pt win
Edit - 2:40
7:00 Kempton - LAATAFREET (7/4) - 20pt win
Tuesday, 5 June 2012
Today's Selections
Today's Selections
3:55 Ffos Las - Donnachas Chant (13/8) - 10pt win
4:40 Ffos Las - Tarkari (5/1) - 2pt win
5:45 Ffos Las - Royal Performance (5/1 place) - 3pts
2:40 Leicester - Stamford (2/1) - 10pt win
3:50 Leicester - Khazium (7/1) -1pt win & 4pt place at 6/4
4:55 Leicester - White Flight (5/2 place) - 4pts & 1pt win (12/1)
3:45 Redcar - Beauty Pageant (5/2 place) - 4pts & 1pt win (16/1)
Starting Bank = 449.25
3:55 Ffos Las - Donnachas Chant (13/8) - 10pt win
4:40 Ffos Las - Tarkari (5/1) - 2pt win
5:45 Ffos Las - Royal Performance (5/1 place) - 3pts
2:40 Leicester - Stamford (2/1) - 10pt win
3:50 Leicester - Khazium (7/1) -1pt win & 4pt place at 6/4
4:55 Leicester - White Flight (5/2 place) - 4pts & 1pt win (12/1)
3:45 Redcar - Beauty Pageant (5/2 place) - 4pts & 1pt win (16/1)
Starting Bank = 449.25
Monday, 4 June 2012
Today's Selections
Right, I was out yesterday for the Jubilee celebrations but I plan to get things back on track today with a few cracking little selections.
3:40 Leicester - Viking Rose (11/2) - 2pt win & 8pt place (1/1)
3:50 Chepstow - Heyaaraat (7/2) - 4pt win
3:55 Redcar - Danadana (13/8) - 16pt win & 2pt RF with Eitheeb
4:50 Leicester - Rippled (8/11) - 22pt win
Starting Bank =461.25
3:40 Leicester - Viking Rose (11/2) - 2pt win & 8pt place (1/1)
3:50 Chepstow - Heyaaraat (7/2) - 4pt win
3:55 Redcar - Danadana (13/8) - 16pt win & 2pt RF with Eitheeb
4:50 Leicester - Rippled (8/11) - 22pt win
Starting Bank =461.25
Saturday, 2 June 2012
Today's Selections
I have been having some computer problems this morning so rather than post all of today's detailed write ups I will just be writing up bets and stakes. Once I manage to fix the problem I will post up my comments on all of todays big races and will also tally up yesterdays results.
1:35 Epsom - Grandeur (1/1 place) - 8pt & 2pt win at 11/2
2:40 Epsom - Beaten Up (1/1 place) -8pts & 2pt win at 5/1
4:00 Epsom - Camelot (4/6) - 24pt win - 1pt RF with Thought Worthy
1:40 Haydock - Bayan (2/1) -10pt win
1:35 Epsom - Grandeur (1/1 place) - 8pt & 2pt win at 11/2
2:40 Epsom - Beaten Up (1/1 place) -8pts & 2pt win at 5/1
4:00 Epsom - Camelot (4/6) - 24pt win - 1pt RF with Thought Worthy
1:40 Haydock - Bayan (2/1) -10pt win
Friday, 1 June 2012
Update
KISSED has now been withdrawn from the Oak's on account of the ground and I will therefore be placing my returned stake on MAYBE to win at 7/2.
3:45 Newcastle
BITTER HARVEST (11/4) - 15PT win - I have been reliably informed that this horse will not lose today. Famous last words!
Info Update - 3:25 Epsom
The info horse for this open looking Handicap race is the Irish Raider PRINCE JOCK. This one came from my man in Ireland and he is apparently pretty confident that the horse will run a big race. It is also worth noting that Fallon has made it down to what is an absolute minimum riding weight in order to take the mount. The horse is currently trading at about 12/1 for a win and 5/2 for a place so I've split my stakes and have had 1pt on the win and 4pts on the place.
Day 1 - Epsom
So Epsom is finally upon us and it promises to be a cracking few days. I will be analysing every race on the card in the hope that the readers of this blog can have a profitable time. I will be giving a win selection and an e/w outsider in every race and will also be detailing my personal selections for the day, together with advised stakes at the end of each post. So lets get the ball rolling and kick things off with the Princess Elizabeth Stakes which takes place at 1:40.
The Princess Elizabeth Stakes is a Group 3 races for Fillies and Mares which is run over a slightly extended mile. The race is open to all ages groups and as a standard rule it pays to side with the favourite as they have been responsible for 50% of all winners in the last few years. This years favourite is LAY TIME who hails from the Balding yard and made a nice start to her juvenile career last year by finishing second by a neck in a Class 3 handicap at Newmarket. She then went on to win a Listed race at Sandown on her final start. Unfortunately, it's difficult to gauge the value of those two performances but my initial view would be that they don't amount to much as the proximity of Fontley in her listed win holds the form down slightly and her Class 3 place can't exactly be viewed as eye catching, although Fityaan did put in some good performances in the UAE during the winter. The question which therefore needs to be answered is 'does this horse represent value at a current price of 9/4?' and my answer to that would definitely be no. Today she goes up against battle hardened rivals and a few of them have form against much better opposition than she beat in her listed win. Her pedigree also causes concern, as amazingly Galilieo has only sired 7 four year old winners from his progeny in the last year in handicap company (turf only). With the scales of betting value tipping against her, I believe there is value to be found elsewhere in the race.
Now as far as win bets are concerned the horse I really like the look of is JOVIALITY. This Cape Cross filly was very highly tried last season and although she has a Grade 3 win to her name over 10f I strongly believe that 8f is her distance and by the looks of her entries this season connections are inclined to agree with me. Her performances in Grade 1 company over a mile last season clearly set the standard against today's opposition and with the yard in red hot form I would expect her to be ready to win first time out. There is a slight question mark over whether she is filly that wants good ground but from a pedigree point of view she really should be capable of running on it. Her Sires progeny also improve with age which is a point in her favour and they usually run well fresh which adds considerably weight to her betting profile. She is 1 from 1 when racing on left handed tracks and although she has not run at Epsom before I can't see the nature of the track causing her too much problem and the little pinch of stamina she will have inherited from her sire should mean she stays on strongly up that long run in. All things considered I think she represents value against the favourite at a current price of 7/2 and this would be my bet in the race.
For those looking for an e/w alternative NAVARRA QUEEN (10/1) could be the horse for you. Although she has a patchy turf profile and is exposed she is a proven group performer and I'm sure her German trainer hasn't made the trip for nothing. She usually runs over further than today's trip but if the early pace is strong they she definitely has a chance of grabbing a place.
JE FACT OF THE RACE - In the last 15 years horse drawn in stall 5 hold a 77% place rate in the race.
The Investec Wealth & Investment Handicap is the next race on the card and this one is an absolute nightmare to try and solve as what you affectively have is a bunch of exposed horses running alongside a few potentially smart unexposed rivals from top yards. Now in these types of races it is always difficult to find a winner at the best of times but this particular field looks like an absolute minefield and personally I would not want to have any kind of financial investment riding on any of the horses. Howeverm if I had a gun to my head and had to place a bet I would probably look to side with OTTOMAN EMPIRE e/w who is available at huge prices on the exchanges or CRY FURY who has been gelded since his last run and is open to improvement.
Ottoman is a top A/W performer and although his runs in the UAE weren't anything that special he was consistent which was more than could be said for most of the UK raiders. He is yet to really fire on the turf but he has only had 6 runs so he is still reasonably unexposed and could have room for improvement off his current mark. My slight concern would be that he hasn't really handled undulations in the past but in a race like this I would probably be prepared to take a risk at what is an appealing price.
At a shorter price GATEWOOD could continue his improvement tomorrow but I'm not overly impressed by his performance to date and I probably wouldn't want to be backing him at 11/4 in what is such an open race. For numerous reasons the best bit of advice I can probably give with regards to this race is keep your powder dry and wait for a better punting prospect.
JE FACT OF THE RACE - In the last 10 years only two favourites have won this race.
The Investec Diomed Stakes is an interesting Group 3 contest over an extended mile and only 6 runners go to post. Having looked through the key trends for this race there are a few stats that stand out and they may prove to be a good starting point for our selection process. Firstly, no horse has won the race after returning to the track after a break of 8-15 days (Wothadd). Secondly, backing horses in the last 15 years in this race who won last time out would have returned a P/L of plus 22 (Marcret, Worthadd). Thirdly, backing horses carrying 9st 4lb would have returned a p/l of 36pts (Side Glance, Mac Love, St Moritz).
So having looked at a few of the key stats it is now time to analyse the individual runners. In my opinion there are two runners who can immediately be discarded (famous last words). The first horse is Mac Love, this one has a mountain to climb to win this race at the age of 11. He doesn't have the best record when fresh and although he has an affection for the track I just can't see him being able to challenge today's younger opposition. My view on this horse may change if there was significant market support, but for the time being I believe you can strike this one off the list of potential winners. The second horse who I can't see winning is Dance and Dance, on the basis of his past form he is held by Side Glance and will probably need the run after a disappointing campaign in the UAE.
Having trimmed the field slightly we now have a shortlist of 4 and for me WORTHAAD looks to be the standout candidate of those remaining few. His form in France, Germany and Italy clearly sets the standard and after Canford Cliffs win last night his second place finish to him at Newbury has been given a further boost. If you believe the whispers emulating from around the Demuro camp then this horse is one of the main reasons why he has hung around, confidence is high and this one has dead cert written all over it. Personally I pay no attention to these kind of whispers but the credentials of this horse are there for all to see and if he handles the nature of the track and the fast ground he should be nion impossible to beat and I expect the current price of 6/5 to evaporate fast. For those looking for alternative I believe that Side Glance should run a nice race and will surely be in the fight at the finish but whether he is good enough to beat Worthadd is yet to be seen. St Moritz also went close in this race last year and if he gets another uncontested lead then he could reward e/w backers.
JE FACT OF THE RACE - Murco Demuro heads to the meet for one ride and currently holds a 22% win rate (41% place rate) on his rides in the UK in 2012.
Investec Mile Handicap - There will be no detailed write up of this race as I have been informed that there will be an info horse in this race for tomorrow so I will post it up together with a summary as soon as I receive it.
The Investec Oaks is the highlight of tomorrows card and what a race it promises to be. I spent a long time during the week looking at the dosage profiles of each of the individual runners and I found a few interesting little trends. I have posted my findings below for those that want to have a read although I know that the majority of punters aren't over familiar with these types of ratings so it may just look like nonsense to a few readers.
DOSAGE RATINGS OF PREVIOUS WINNERS
DANCING RAIN = 5-12-9-0-0 (26) DI = 4.78 CD = 0.85
SNOW FAIRY = 1-2-10-1-0 (14) DI = 1.33 CD = 0.21
SARISKA = 3-2-11-0-0 (16) DI = 1.91 CD = 0.50
LOOK HERE = 4-0-19-7-6 (36) DI = 0.60 CD = -0.31
LIGHT SHIFT = 12-3-29-10-4 (58) DI = 1.04 CD = 0.16
ALEXANDROVA = 6-2-24-10-4 (46) DI = 0.77 CD = -0.09
ESWARAH = 7-4-15-2-2 (30) DI = 1.61 CD = 0.40
OUIJA BOARD = 5-4-5-0-2 (16) DI = 2.56 CD = 0.63
CASUAL LOOK = 2-5-21-0-2 (30) DI = 1.40 CD = 0.17
KAZZIA = 1-1-8-3-5 (18) DI = 0.50 CD = -0.56
Having analysed the overall figures I came up with a estimated average DI which was 1.65 and an estimated CDI average which was 0.19. I then compared those figures to the majority of todays runners;
KISSED = 5-0-12-5-2 (24) DI = 0.85 CD = 0.04
MAYBE = 4-6-12-4-0 (26) DI = 1.60 CD = 0.38
THE FUGUE = 3-2-11-6-0 (22) DI = 0.91 CD = 0.09
VOW = 3-1-6-4-0 (14) DI = 1.00 CD = 0.21
BETTERBETTERBETTER = 3-1-11-5-2 (22) DI = 0.76 CD = -0.09
COLIMA = 1-8-6-5-0 (20) DI = 1.50 CD = 0.25
COQUET = 6-1-4-0-1 (12) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.92
DEVOTION = 4-2-16-4-2 (28) DI = 1.00 CD = 0.07
SHIROCCO STAR = 4-0-7-2-1 (14) DI = 1.15 CD = 0.29
TWIRL = 9-2-11-4-0 (26) DI = 1.74 CD = 0.62
WAS = 4-3-11-4-0 (22) DI = 1.32 CD = 0.32
You will note from the figures above that none of the runners meet the average figure but Shirocco Star does come pretty close. When you look at those figures in unison with the key trends for this race you can obviously narrow the field down considerably and having run through the card in detail I ended up with Kissed, Maybe, The Fugue and Shirocco Star.
Now obviously you can't back four runners in a race of this nature so you have to nail your colours to the post and my decision during the week was to back SHIROCCO STAR E/W at 20/1. However, that price has now evaporated and I'm not sure she looks like such great value at 16/1. Maybe has been on the drift for the last 24 hours which is a bit of surprise as she obviously has strong claims, while the Fugee has continued to be heavily supported and it looks as if the yard really mean business with this horse. KISSED is the horse which keeps jumping off the page at me though and I truly believe that this horse has all the assets required to be a top class filly. Whether she is good enough at this point in her career to win a race like the oaks is difficult to tell but if Moore gets her settled early and the pace is strong, then this one will be staying on at the finish and may well reward e/w supporters. The more time I spend looking at this race the more I feel that I will regret it if I don't back her and for that reason I will be having a substantial bet on the exchange place market.
JE FACT OF THE RACE - 13 of the last 15 Oaks winners had finished 1st or 2nd on their last run.
The Investec Surrey Stakes is one of the easier races on the card to try and solve, the first thing to note is that hold up performers in the past have run poorly in this race while front/prominent runners have dominated.
Following the early withdrawal of Fallen for you the race now looks to be between Balty's Boy and the Producer, although Lady Gorgeous can't be discounted given the current form of her yard. Having spoken to my guy in the Hill's yard this morning, they are expecting a big race from Balty's Boy, he has been working well at home (as is always the case) and this race represents his easiest task in a while. They do however fear the Hannon horse and for that reason and due to the current price, they will not be lumping any significant money on their representative.
Personally, I am minded to side with the Hannon horse as well, who at the current time is trading around the 3/1 mark. The horse is a proven CD performer who has registered all three of his career wins of course and distance, racing prominently on each occasion. The horse made his seasonal reappearance in a Listed race at Newmarket over 1m 1f back in April finishing 3rd behind Stipulate and Mr Music. The form of that race is working out nicely and given the horses CD form at Epsom it safe to assume that this will have been his target since the start of the season. For me the current price of 3/1 looks like good value and with the Hill connections unlikely to punt Balty I would think that the price will shorten significantly in the next few hours.
JE FACT OF THE RACE - SP favourites have one 5 of the last 10 renewals of this race.
The Investec Asset Management Handicap is the final race of the card and will provide the bookies with one last chance to take some money from the punters pocket. There have been a few withdrawals in the last few hours and at the current time 12 runners from a few top yards will be going to post. The first horse which immediately caught my eye was DISSENT, his form in his last 4 races has been far from impressive but the reason it came to my attention is that his trainer has applied a first time eye shield. Now for those of you that don't know Gerald Butler learnt his trade under Wayne Lucas who was one of the most prolific American Horse trainers of recent times. He was also a trainer who found significant improvement in his horses when applying certain forms of head gear such as blinkers, eye shields etc. and that trait has seemingly rubbed off on Butler. With that piece of knowledge tucked in my pocket I always pay close attention to any of his runners when they appears in first time head gear and Dissent is a very intriguing candidate.
Having started his racing career in a Class 3 maiden at Ascot last year it is safe to assume that Dissent had been showing something at home, he finished 5th that day (form worked out very well), before heading to Kempton for a class 5 maiden where he absolutely demolished a mediocre field. Upon breaking his duck he returned to Kempton for a class 4 Nursery over 6f and was heavily supported but ruined his chances by pulling too hard in the early stages. He eventually finished 3rd and considering how the race unfolded that performance should be upgraded. His final race of the season came at Doncaster over 7f and connections reached for the Hood in an attempt to settle him, the plan failed! He once again pulled hard, raced keenly and finished well down the field with a few of todays' opposition well clear of him. A literal reading of that race would definitely put you off backing this horse today but the fact that these connections have persevered and have also refrained from gelding the colt would suggest that they clearly believe there is more to come from him. He also has the benefit of Darren Egan on-board who claims 5lb and that kind of swing in the weights can make all the difference in these tightly knit handicaps. Obviously he is not a horse to go piling into for win purposes but I strongly believe that this horse could reward e/w supporters and at 7/1+ for a place on the exchanges, it looks like a nice price.
For those for a more solid betting proposition in the race, I was impressed by Sholaan's performance LTO and the handicapper didn't get too carried away but he is drawn in the car park and that has to be a concern but I think this one will go close to winning today with Ryan Moore in the saddle.
So that concludes my run down of today's racing at Epsom and I hope it will prove to be a profitable card for punters. The only thing left to do is to confirm what I will be backing and I have listed my selections below together with the advised stakes. I am still waiting on a call about the info horse in the 3:25 and I will post that up as soon as I hear anything. I might also have a few bets at some other venues today but after completing this write up I need to lie down in a dark room for a while before looking at another race card!
Today's Selections
1:40 - Joviality (5/1) - 3pt win - 1pt RF with Lay Time
2:50 - Worthadd (6/5) - 15pt win - 1pt RF with Side Glance
4:05 - Shirocco Star (20/1) - 1.5pts e/w
4:05 - Kissed (8/1) - 2pt win - 8pt place (2/1)
4:50 - Producer (3/1) -5pt win - 1pt RF with Balty Boys
5:25 - Dissent (7/1) - 2pt place
Starting Bank = 502.25
The Princess Elizabeth Stakes is a Group 3 races for Fillies and Mares which is run over a slightly extended mile. The race is open to all ages groups and as a standard rule it pays to side with the favourite as they have been responsible for 50% of all winners in the last few years. This years favourite is LAY TIME who hails from the Balding yard and made a nice start to her juvenile career last year by finishing second by a neck in a Class 3 handicap at Newmarket. She then went on to win a Listed race at Sandown on her final start. Unfortunately, it's difficult to gauge the value of those two performances but my initial view would be that they don't amount to much as the proximity of Fontley in her listed win holds the form down slightly and her Class 3 place can't exactly be viewed as eye catching, although Fityaan did put in some good performances in the UAE during the winter. The question which therefore needs to be answered is 'does this horse represent value at a current price of 9/4?' and my answer to that would definitely be no. Today she goes up against battle hardened rivals and a few of them have form against much better opposition than she beat in her listed win. Her pedigree also causes concern, as amazingly Galilieo has only sired 7 four year old winners from his progeny in the last year in handicap company (turf only). With the scales of betting value tipping against her, I believe there is value to be found elsewhere in the race.
Now as far as win bets are concerned the horse I really like the look of is JOVIALITY. This Cape Cross filly was very highly tried last season and although she has a Grade 3 win to her name over 10f I strongly believe that 8f is her distance and by the looks of her entries this season connections are inclined to agree with me. Her performances in Grade 1 company over a mile last season clearly set the standard against today's opposition and with the yard in red hot form I would expect her to be ready to win first time out. There is a slight question mark over whether she is filly that wants good ground but from a pedigree point of view she really should be capable of running on it. Her Sires progeny also improve with age which is a point in her favour and they usually run well fresh which adds considerably weight to her betting profile. She is 1 from 1 when racing on left handed tracks and although she has not run at Epsom before I can't see the nature of the track causing her too much problem and the little pinch of stamina she will have inherited from her sire should mean she stays on strongly up that long run in. All things considered I think she represents value against the favourite at a current price of 7/2 and this would be my bet in the race.
For those looking for an e/w alternative NAVARRA QUEEN (10/1) could be the horse for you. Although she has a patchy turf profile and is exposed she is a proven group performer and I'm sure her German trainer hasn't made the trip for nothing. She usually runs over further than today's trip but if the early pace is strong they she definitely has a chance of grabbing a place.
JE FACT OF THE RACE - In the last 15 years horse drawn in stall 5 hold a 77% place rate in the race.
The Investec Wealth & Investment Handicap is the next race on the card and this one is an absolute nightmare to try and solve as what you affectively have is a bunch of exposed horses running alongside a few potentially smart unexposed rivals from top yards. Now in these types of races it is always difficult to find a winner at the best of times but this particular field looks like an absolute minefield and personally I would not want to have any kind of financial investment riding on any of the horses. Howeverm if I had a gun to my head and had to place a bet I would probably look to side with OTTOMAN EMPIRE e/w who is available at huge prices on the exchanges or CRY FURY who has been gelded since his last run and is open to improvement.
Ottoman is a top A/W performer and although his runs in the UAE weren't anything that special he was consistent which was more than could be said for most of the UK raiders. He is yet to really fire on the turf but he has only had 6 runs so he is still reasonably unexposed and could have room for improvement off his current mark. My slight concern would be that he hasn't really handled undulations in the past but in a race like this I would probably be prepared to take a risk at what is an appealing price.
At a shorter price GATEWOOD could continue his improvement tomorrow but I'm not overly impressed by his performance to date and I probably wouldn't want to be backing him at 11/4 in what is such an open race. For numerous reasons the best bit of advice I can probably give with regards to this race is keep your powder dry and wait for a better punting prospect.
JE FACT OF THE RACE - In the last 10 years only two favourites have won this race.
The Investec Diomed Stakes is an interesting Group 3 contest over an extended mile and only 6 runners go to post. Having looked through the key trends for this race there are a few stats that stand out and they may prove to be a good starting point for our selection process. Firstly, no horse has won the race after returning to the track after a break of 8-15 days (Wothadd). Secondly, backing horses in the last 15 years in this race who won last time out would have returned a P/L of plus 22 (Marcret, Worthadd). Thirdly, backing horses carrying 9st 4lb would have returned a p/l of 36pts (Side Glance, Mac Love, St Moritz).
So having looked at a few of the key stats it is now time to analyse the individual runners. In my opinion there are two runners who can immediately be discarded (famous last words). The first horse is Mac Love, this one has a mountain to climb to win this race at the age of 11. He doesn't have the best record when fresh and although he has an affection for the track I just can't see him being able to challenge today's younger opposition. My view on this horse may change if there was significant market support, but for the time being I believe you can strike this one off the list of potential winners. The second horse who I can't see winning is Dance and Dance, on the basis of his past form he is held by Side Glance and will probably need the run after a disappointing campaign in the UAE.
Having trimmed the field slightly we now have a shortlist of 4 and for me WORTHAAD looks to be the standout candidate of those remaining few. His form in France, Germany and Italy clearly sets the standard and after Canford Cliffs win last night his second place finish to him at Newbury has been given a further boost. If you believe the whispers emulating from around the Demuro camp then this horse is one of the main reasons why he has hung around, confidence is high and this one has dead cert written all over it. Personally I pay no attention to these kind of whispers but the credentials of this horse are there for all to see and if he handles the nature of the track and the fast ground he should be nion impossible to beat and I expect the current price of 6/5 to evaporate fast. For those looking for alternative I believe that Side Glance should run a nice race and will surely be in the fight at the finish but whether he is good enough to beat Worthadd is yet to be seen. St Moritz also went close in this race last year and if he gets another uncontested lead then he could reward e/w backers.
JE FACT OF THE RACE - Murco Demuro heads to the meet for one ride and currently holds a 22% win rate (41% place rate) on his rides in the UK in 2012.
Investec Mile Handicap - There will be no detailed write up of this race as I have been informed that there will be an info horse in this race for tomorrow so I will post it up together with a summary as soon as I receive it.
The Investec Oaks is the highlight of tomorrows card and what a race it promises to be. I spent a long time during the week looking at the dosage profiles of each of the individual runners and I found a few interesting little trends. I have posted my findings below for those that want to have a read although I know that the majority of punters aren't over familiar with these types of ratings so it may just look like nonsense to a few readers.
DOSAGE RATINGS OF PREVIOUS WINNERS
DANCING RAIN = 5-12-9-0-0 (26) DI = 4.78 CD = 0.85
SNOW FAIRY = 1-2-10-1-0 (14) DI = 1.33 CD = 0.21
SARISKA = 3-2-11-0-0 (16) DI = 1.91 CD = 0.50
LOOK HERE = 4-0-19-7-6 (36) DI = 0.60 CD = -0.31
LIGHT SHIFT = 12-3-29-10-4 (58) DI = 1.04 CD = 0.16
ALEXANDROVA = 6-2-24-10-4 (46) DI = 0.77 CD = -0.09
ESWARAH = 7-4-15-2-2 (30) DI = 1.61 CD = 0.40
OUIJA BOARD = 5-4-5-0-2 (16) DI = 2.56 CD = 0.63
CASUAL LOOK = 2-5-21-0-2 (30) DI = 1.40 CD = 0.17
KAZZIA = 1-1-8-3-5 (18) DI = 0.50 CD = -0.56
Having analysed the overall figures I came up with a estimated average DI which was 1.65 and an estimated CDI average which was 0.19. I then compared those figures to the majority of todays runners;
KISSED = 5-0-12-5-2 (24) DI = 0.85 CD = 0.04
MAYBE = 4-6-12-4-0 (26) DI = 1.60 CD = 0.38
THE FUGUE = 3-2-11-6-0 (22) DI = 0.91 CD = 0.09
VOW = 3-1-6-4-0 (14) DI = 1.00 CD = 0.21
BETTERBETTERBETTER = 3-1-11-5-2 (22) DI = 0.76 CD = -0.09
COLIMA = 1-8-6-5-0 (20) DI = 1.50 CD = 0.25
COQUET = 6-1-4-0-1 (12) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.92
DEVOTION = 4-2-16-4-2 (28) DI = 1.00 CD = 0.07
SHIROCCO STAR = 4-0-7-2-1 (14) DI = 1.15 CD = 0.29
TWIRL = 9-2-11-4-0 (26) DI = 1.74 CD = 0.62
WAS = 4-3-11-4-0 (22) DI = 1.32 CD = 0.32
You will note from the figures above that none of the runners meet the average figure but Shirocco Star does come pretty close. When you look at those figures in unison with the key trends for this race you can obviously narrow the field down considerably and having run through the card in detail I ended up with Kissed, Maybe, The Fugue and Shirocco Star.
Now obviously you can't back four runners in a race of this nature so you have to nail your colours to the post and my decision during the week was to back SHIROCCO STAR E/W at 20/1. However, that price has now evaporated and I'm not sure she looks like such great value at 16/1. Maybe has been on the drift for the last 24 hours which is a bit of surprise as she obviously has strong claims, while the Fugee has continued to be heavily supported and it looks as if the yard really mean business with this horse. KISSED is the horse which keeps jumping off the page at me though and I truly believe that this horse has all the assets required to be a top class filly. Whether she is good enough at this point in her career to win a race like the oaks is difficult to tell but if Moore gets her settled early and the pace is strong, then this one will be staying on at the finish and may well reward e/w supporters. The more time I spend looking at this race the more I feel that I will regret it if I don't back her and for that reason I will be having a substantial bet on the exchange place market.
JE FACT OF THE RACE - 13 of the last 15 Oaks winners had finished 1st or 2nd on their last run.
The Investec Surrey Stakes is one of the easier races on the card to try and solve, the first thing to note is that hold up performers in the past have run poorly in this race while front/prominent runners have dominated.
Following the early withdrawal of Fallen for you the race now looks to be between Balty's Boy and the Producer, although Lady Gorgeous can't be discounted given the current form of her yard. Having spoken to my guy in the Hill's yard this morning, they are expecting a big race from Balty's Boy, he has been working well at home (as is always the case) and this race represents his easiest task in a while. They do however fear the Hannon horse and for that reason and due to the current price, they will not be lumping any significant money on their representative.
Personally, I am minded to side with the Hannon horse as well, who at the current time is trading around the 3/1 mark. The horse is a proven CD performer who has registered all three of his career wins of course and distance, racing prominently on each occasion. The horse made his seasonal reappearance in a Listed race at Newmarket over 1m 1f back in April finishing 3rd behind Stipulate and Mr Music. The form of that race is working out nicely and given the horses CD form at Epsom it safe to assume that this will have been his target since the start of the season. For me the current price of 3/1 looks like good value and with the Hill connections unlikely to punt Balty I would think that the price will shorten significantly in the next few hours.
JE FACT OF THE RACE - SP favourites have one 5 of the last 10 renewals of this race.
The Investec Asset Management Handicap is the final race of the card and will provide the bookies with one last chance to take some money from the punters pocket. There have been a few withdrawals in the last few hours and at the current time 12 runners from a few top yards will be going to post. The first horse which immediately caught my eye was DISSENT, his form in his last 4 races has been far from impressive but the reason it came to my attention is that his trainer has applied a first time eye shield. Now for those of you that don't know Gerald Butler learnt his trade under Wayne Lucas who was one of the most prolific American Horse trainers of recent times. He was also a trainer who found significant improvement in his horses when applying certain forms of head gear such as blinkers, eye shields etc. and that trait has seemingly rubbed off on Butler. With that piece of knowledge tucked in my pocket I always pay close attention to any of his runners when they appears in first time head gear and Dissent is a very intriguing candidate.
Having started his racing career in a Class 3 maiden at Ascot last year it is safe to assume that Dissent had been showing something at home, he finished 5th that day (form worked out very well), before heading to Kempton for a class 5 maiden where he absolutely demolished a mediocre field. Upon breaking his duck he returned to Kempton for a class 4 Nursery over 6f and was heavily supported but ruined his chances by pulling too hard in the early stages. He eventually finished 3rd and considering how the race unfolded that performance should be upgraded. His final race of the season came at Doncaster over 7f and connections reached for the Hood in an attempt to settle him, the plan failed! He once again pulled hard, raced keenly and finished well down the field with a few of todays' opposition well clear of him. A literal reading of that race would definitely put you off backing this horse today but the fact that these connections have persevered and have also refrained from gelding the colt would suggest that they clearly believe there is more to come from him. He also has the benefit of Darren Egan on-board who claims 5lb and that kind of swing in the weights can make all the difference in these tightly knit handicaps. Obviously he is not a horse to go piling into for win purposes but I strongly believe that this horse could reward e/w supporters and at 7/1+ for a place on the exchanges, it looks like a nice price.
For those for a more solid betting proposition in the race, I was impressed by Sholaan's performance LTO and the handicapper didn't get too carried away but he is drawn in the car park and that has to be a concern but I think this one will go close to winning today with Ryan Moore in the saddle.
So that concludes my run down of today's racing at Epsom and I hope it will prove to be a profitable card for punters. The only thing left to do is to confirm what I will be backing and I have listed my selections below together with the advised stakes. I am still waiting on a call about the info horse in the 3:25 and I will post that up as soon as I hear anything. I might also have a few bets at some other venues today but after completing this write up I need to lie down in a dark room for a while before looking at another race card!
Today's Selections
1:40 - Joviality (5/1) - 3pt win - 1pt RF with Lay Time
2:50 - Worthadd (6/5) - 15pt win - 1pt RF with Side Glance
4:05 - Shirocco Star (20/1) - 1.5pts e/w
4:05 - Kissed (8/1) - 2pt win - 8pt place (2/1)
4:50 - Producer (3/1) -5pt win - 1pt RF with Balty Boys
5:25 - Dissent (7/1) - 2pt place
Starting Bank = 502.25
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