Day 1 - Epsom

So Epsom is finally upon us and it promises to be a cracking few days. I will be analysing every race on the card in the hope that the readers of this blog can have a profitable time. I will be giving a win selection and an e/w outsider in every race and will also be detailing my personal selections for the day, together with advised stakes at the end of each post. So lets get the ball rolling and kick things off with the Princess Elizabeth Stakes which takes place at 1:40.

The Princess Elizabeth Stakes is a Group 3 races for Fillies and Mares which is run over a slightly extended mile. The race is open to all ages groups and as a standard rule it pays to side with the favourite as they have been responsible for 50% of all winners in the last few years. This years favourite is LAY TIME who hails from the Balding yard and made a nice start to her juvenile career last year by finishing second by a neck in a Class 3 handicap at Newmarket. She then went on to win a Listed race at Sandown on her final start. Unfortunately, it's difficult to gauge the value of those two performances but my initial view would be that they don't amount to much as the  proximity of Fontley in her listed win holds the form down slightly and her Class 3 place can't exactly be viewed as eye catching, although Fityaan did put in some good performances in the UAE during the winter. The question which therefore needs to be answered is 'does this horse represent value at a current price of 9/4?' and my answer to that would definitely be no. Today she goes up against battle hardened rivals and a few of them have form against much better opposition than she beat in her listed win. Her pedigree also causes concern, as amazingly Galilieo has only sired 7 four year old winners from his progeny in the last year in handicap company (turf only).  With the scales of betting value tipping against her, I believe there is value to be found elsewhere in the race.

Now as far as win bets are concerned the horse I really like the look of is JOVIALITY. This Cape Cross filly was very highly tried last season and although she has a Grade 3 win to her name over 10f I strongly believe that 8f is her distance and by the looks of her entries this season connections are inclined to agree with me. Her performances in Grade 1 company over a mile last season clearly set the standard against today's opposition and with the yard in red hot form I would expect her to be ready to win first time out. There is a slight question mark over whether she is filly that wants good ground but from a pedigree point of view she really should be capable of running on it. Her Sires progeny also improve with age which is a point in her favour and they usually run well fresh which adds considerably weight to her betting profile. She is 1 from 1 when racing on left handed tracks and although she has not run at Epsom before I can't see the nature of the track causing her too much problem and the little pinch of stamina she will have inherited from her sire should mean she stays on strongly up that long run in. All things considered I think she represents value against the favourite at a current price of 7/2 and this would be my bet in the race.

For those looking for an e/w alternative NAVARRA QUEEN (10/1) could be the horse for you. Although she has a patchy turf profile and is exposed she is a proven group performer and I'm sure her German trainer hasn't made the trip for nothing. She usually runs over further than today's trip but if the early pace is strong they she definitely has a chance of grabbing a place.

JE FACT OF THE RACE - In the last 15 years horse drawn in stall 5 hold a 77% place rate in the race.


The Investec Wealth & Investment Handicap is the next race on the card and this one is an absolute nightmare to try and solve as what you affectively have is a bunch of exposed horses running alongside a few potentially smart unexposed rivals from top yards. Now in these types of races it is always difficult to find a winner at the best of times but this particular field looks like an absolute minefield and personally I would not want to have any kind of financial investment riding on any of the horses. Howeverm if I had a gun to my head and had to place a bet I would probably look to side with OTTOMAN EMPIRE e/w who is available at huge prices on the exchanges or CRY FURY who has been gelded since his last run and is open to improvement.

Ottoman is a top A/W performer and although his runs in the UAE weren't anything that special he was consistent which was more than could be said for most of the UK raiders. He is yet to really fire on the turf but he has only had 6 runs so he is still reasonably unexposed and could have room for improvement off his current mark. My slight concern would be that he hasn't really handled undulations in the past but in a race like this I would probably be prepared to take a risk at what is an appealing price.

At a shorter price GATEWOOD could continue his improvement tomorrow but I'm not overly impressed by his performance to date and I probably wouldn't want to be backing him at 11/4 in what is such an open race. For numerous reasons the best bit of advice I can probably give with regards to this race is keep your powder dry and wait for a better punting prospect.

JE FACT OF THE RACE - In the last 10 years only two favourites have won this race.


The Investec Diomed Stakes is an interesting Group 3 contest over an extended mile and only 6 runners go to post. Having looked through the key trends for this race there are a few stats that stand out and they may prove to be a good starting point for our selection process. Firstly, no horse has won the race after returning to the track after a break of 8-15 days (Wothadd). Secondly, backing horses in the last 15 years in this race who won last time out would have returned a P/L of plus 22 (Marcret, Worthadd). Thirdly, backing horses carrying 9st 4lb would have returned a p/l of 36pts (Side Glance, Mac Love, St Moritz).

So having looked at a few of the key stats it is now time to analyse the individual runners. In my opinion there are two runners who can immediately be discarded (famous last words). The first horse is Mac Love, this one has a mountain to climb to win this race at the age of 11. He doesn't have the best record when fresh and although he has an affection for the track I just can't see him being able to challenge today's younger opposition. My view on this horse may change if there was significant market support, but for the time being I believe you can strike this one off the list of potential winners. The second horse who I can't see winning is Dance and Dance, on the basis of his past form he is held by Side Glance and will probably need the run after a disappointing campaign in the UAE.

Having trimmed the field slightly we now have a shortlist of 4 and for me WORTHAAD looks to be the standout candidate of those remaining few. His form in France, Germany and Italy clearly sets the standard and after Canford Cliffs win last night his second place finish to him at Newbury has been given a further boost. If you believe the whispers emulating from around the Demuro camp then this horse is one of the main reasons why he has hung around, confidence is high and this one has dead cert written all over it. Personally I pay no attention to these kind of whispers but the credentials of this horse are there for all to see and if he handles the nature of the track and the fast ground he should be nion impossible to beat and I expect the current price of 6/5 to evaporate fast. For those looking for alternative I believe that Side Glance should run a nice race and will surely be in the fight at the finish but whether he is good enough to beat Worthadd is yet to be seen. St Moritz also went close in this race last year and if he gets another uncontested lead then he could reward e/w backers.

JE FACT OF THE RACE - Murco Demuro heads to the meet for one ride and currently holds a 22% win rate (41% place rate) on his rides in the UK in 2012.


Investec Mile Handicap - There will be no detailed write up of this race as I have been informed that there will be an info horse in this race for tomorrow so I will post it up together with a summary as soon as I receive it.


The Investec Oaks is the highlight of tomorrows card and what a race it promises to be. I spent a long time during the week looking at the dosage profiles of each of the individual runners and I found a few interesting little trends. I have posted my findings below for those that want to have a read although I know that the majority of punters aren't over familiar with these types of ratings so it may just look like nonsense to a few readers.


DOSAGE RATINGS OF PREVIOUS WINNERS

DANCING RAIN  = 5-12-9-0-0 (26) DI = 4.78   CD = 0.85

SNOW FAIRY = 1-2-10-1-0 (14) DI = 1.33   CD = 0.21

SARISKA = 3-2-11-0-0 (16) DI = 1.91   CD = 0.50

LOOK HERE = 4-0-19-7-6 (36) DI = 0.60   CD = -0.31

LIGHT SHIFT  = 12-3-29-10-4 (58) DI = 1.04   CD = 0.16

ALEXANDROVA = 6-2-24-10-4 (46) DI = 0.77 CD = -0.09

ESWARAH = 7-4-15-2-2 (30) DI = 1.61   CD = 0.40

OUIJA BOARD  = 5-4-5-0-2 (16) DI = 2.56   CD = 0.63

CASUAL LOOK  = 2-5-21-0-2 (30) DI = 1.40   CD = 0.17

KAZZIA  = 1-1-8-3-5 (18) DI = 0.50   CD = -0.56

Having analysed the overall figures I came up with a estimated  average DI which was 1.65 and an estimated  CDI average which was 0.19.  I then compared those figures to the majority of todays runners;

KISSED  = 5-0-12-5-2 (24) DI = 0.85   CD = 0.04

MAYBE  = 4-6-12-4-0 (26) DI = 1.60   CD = 0.38

THE FUGUE  = 3-2-11-6-0 (22) DI = 0.91  CD = 0.09

VOW = 3-1-6-4-0 (14) DI = 1.00   CD = 0.21

BETTERBETTERBETTER = 3-1-11-5-2 (22) DI = 0.76   CD = -0.09

COLIMA = 1-8-6-5-0 (20) DI = 1.50   CD = 0.25

COQUET  = 6-1-4-0-1 (12) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.92

DEVOTION  = 4-2-16-4-2 (28) DI = 1.00   CD = 0.07

SHIROCCO STAR  = 4-0-7-2-1 (14) DI = 1.15   CD = 0.29

TWIRL  = 9-2-11-4-0 (26) DI = 1.74   CD = 0.62

WAS  = 4-3-11-4-0 (22) DI = 1.32   CD = 0.32


You will note from the figures above that none of the runners meet the average figure but Shirocco Star does come pretty close. When you look at those figures in unison with the key trends for this race you can obviously narrow the field down considerably and having run through the card in detail I ended up with Kissed, Maybe, The Fugue and Shirocco Star.

Now obviously you can't back four runners in a race of this nature so you have to nail your colours to the post and my decision during the week was to back SHIROCCO STAR E/W at 20/1. However, that price has now evaporated and I'm not sure she looks like such great value at 16/1. Maybe has been on the drift for the last 24 hours which is a bit of surprise as she obviously has strong claims, while the Fugee has continued to be heavily supported and it looks as if the yard really mean business with this horse. KISSED is the horse which keeps jumping off the page at me though and I truly believe that this horse has all the assets required to be a top class filly. Whether she is good enough at this point in her career to win a race like the oaks is difficult to tell but if Moore gets her settled early and the pace is strong, then this one will be staying on  at the finish and may well reward e/w supporters. The more time I spend looking at this race the more I feel that I will regret it if I don't back her and for that reason I will be having a substantial bet on the exchange place market.

JE FACT OF THE RACE - 13 of the last 15 Oaks winners had finished 1st or 2nd on their last run.


The Investec Surrey Stakes is one of the easier races on the card to try and solve, the first thing to note is that hold up performers in the past have run poorly in this race while front/prominent runners have dominated.

Following the early withdrawal of Fallen for you the race now looks to be between Balty's Boy and the Producer, although Lady Gorgeous can't be discounted given the current form of her yard. Having spoken to my guy in the Hill's yard this morning, they are expecting a big race from Balty's Boy, he has been working well at home (as is always the case) and this race represents his easiest task in a while. They do however fear the Hannon horse and for that reason and due to the current price, they will not be lumping any significant money on their representative.

Personally, I am minded to side with the Hannon horse as well, who at the current time is trading around the 3/1 mark. The horse is a proven CD performer who has registered all three of his career wins of course and distance, racing prominently on each occasion. The horse made his seasonal reappearance in a Listed race at Newmarket over 1m 1f back in April finishing 3rd behind Stipulate and Mr Music. The form of that race is working out nicely and given the horses CD form at Epsom it safe to assume that this will have been his target since the start of the season. For me the current price of 3/1 looks like good value and with the Hill connections unlikely to punt Balty I would think that the price will shorten significantly in the next few hours.

JE FACT OF THE RACE - SP favourites have one 5 of the last 10 renewals of this race.


The Investec Asset Management Handicap is the final race of the card and will provide the bookies with one last chance to take some money from the punters pocket. There have been a few withdrawals in the last few hours and at the current time 12 runners from a few top yards will be going to post. The first horse which immediately caught my eye was DISSENT, his form in his last 4 races has been far from impressive but the reason it came to my attention is that his trainer has applied a first time eye shield. Now for those of you that don't know Gerald Butler learnt his trade under Wayne Lucas who was one of the most prolific American Horse trainers of recent times. He was also a trainer who found significant improvement in his horses when applying certain forms of head gear such as blinkers, eye shields etc. and that trait has seemingly rubbed off on Butler.  With that piece of knowledge tucked in my pocket I always pay close attention to any of his runners when they appears in first time  head gear and Dissent is a very intriguing candidate.

Having started his racing career in a Class 3 maiden at Ascot last year it is safe to assume that Dissent had been showing something at home, he finished 5th that day (form worked out very well), before heading to Kempton for a class 5 maiden where he absolutely demolished a mediocre field. Upon breaking his duck he returned to Kempton for a class 4 Nursery over 6f and was heavily supported but ruined his chances by pulling too hard in the early stages. He eventually finished 3rd and considering how the race unfolded that performance should be upgraded. His final race of the season came at Doncaster over 7f and connections reached for the Hood in an attempt to settle him, the plan failed! He once again pulled hard, raced keenly and finished well down the field with a few of todays' opposition well clear of him. A literal reading of that race would definitely put you off backing this horse today but the fact that these connections have persevered and have also refrained from gelding the colt would suggest that they clearly believe there is more to come from him. He also has the benefit of Darren Egan on-board who claims 5lb and that kind of swing in the weights can make all the difference in these tightly knit handicaps. Obviously he is not a horse to go piling into for win purposes but I strongly believe that this horse could reward e/w supporters and at 7/1+ for a place on the exchanges, it looks like a nice price.

For those for a more solid betting proposition in the race, I was impressed by Sholaan's performance LTO and the handicapper didn't get too carried away but he is drawn in the car park and that has to be a concern but I think this one will go close to winning today with Ryan Moore in the saddle.


So that concludes my run down of today's racing at Epsom and I hope it will prove to be a profitable card for punters. The only thing left to do is to confirm what I will be backing and I have listed my selections below together with the advised stakes. I am still waiting on a call about the info horse in the 3:25 and I will post that up as soon as I hear anything. I might also have a few bets at some other venues today but after completing this write up I need to lie down in a dark room for a while before looking at another race card!

Today's Selections 

1:40 - Joviality (5/1) - 3pt win - 1pt RF with Lay Time
2:50 - Worthadd (6/5) - 15pt win - 1pt RF with Side Glance
4:05 - Shirocco Star (20/1) - 1.5pts e/w
4:05 - Kissed (8/1) - 2pt win - 8pt place (2/1)
4:50 - Producer (3/1) -5pt win - 1pt RF with Balty Boys
5:25 - Dissent (7/1) - 2pt place

Starting Bank = 502.25