Today's Selection

Having looked through the AW cards today there is only one race which fits my criteria and that's the 4:35 at Kempton. Unfortunately it's a very difficult race to assess due to the pace angles and the abundance of hold up performers.

At the head of the market we have Pastoral Jet who has been in good form over CD recently and has Thomas Brown on-board claiming 7lb. The problem with this particular horse is that he's far from straight forward, needs a fast pace to aim at and doesn't always give 100%. With that in mind I believe he's easily opposed.

George Baker picks up the ride on Hip Hip Hooray who is a decent mare dropping into 0-60 company for a first time in a while. Although she is an out and out hold up horse, she doesn't necessarily need a fast pace to aim at and that could be an advantage given the distinct lack of front runners. She has been out of sorts recently though which is a concern but her yard does well at the track and I would have thought she will run well. The fact that Mongan presumably picked the Phelan runner obviously intrigues me though.

Menadati is a horse who is clearly well handicapped as he is a horse with talent who is incredibly difficult to win with given the fact that he has real trouble breaking from the stalls. If we see another tardy start from him today then it's unlikely that he will be able to make up the lost ground and with both jockey and trainer in poor form, the 4/1 currently on offer looks ridiculous.

Silly Billy in my opinion is the horse which makes the most appeal in today's line up. Unlike the majority of the field he likes to race prominently and has also been known to front run in the past. Although the majority of his form is over 7 furlong, I believe he should get an uncontested lead if Mongan gets him to the front early and if that is the case then he will have every opportunity to set some steady fractions before really winding up the pace in the last furlong. If the race unfolds as I expect I think we will see a sprint to the finish and with the course riding on the slow side I think it's going to be very difficult for the likes of HHH, PJ and Menadati to make up lost ground. There is no doubt that Mongan is a rider to follow on the AW at the moment and his ability to judge pace is extremely good. I think that will be invaluable in today's race and with a few close calls off his current mark I think Silly Billy is nailed on to get his head in front again today. At a current price of 6/1 there is plenty of e/w value and I think he's the most likely winner in a race which is certain to be run at a sedate pace.

Selection - Silly Billy (6/1) - 1pt e/w  (UP)