Today's Selections

12:40 Uttoxeter - Shutthefrontdoor (11/10) - 3pt win (1st - SP 15/8)

1:10 Uttoxeter - Prickles (4/1) - 3pt win (1st)

2:10 Uttoxeter - Kings Sunset (4/1) - 3pt win (UP)

3:40 Uttoxeter - Salto Chisco (2/1) - 3pt win (2nd)

3:45 Tranmore - Glen Beg (5/1) - 3pt win (UP)

1:00 Lingfield - Liliana (5/4) - 3pt win (2nd)

Today's Selections

12:40 Taunton - King Spirit (33/1) - 1pt e/w  (3rd)

2:20 Taunton - Ma Filleule (11/10)  - 3pt win (2nd)

2:20 Taunton - 0.50pt Reverse Forecast - Number 2 & 6 (1pt Total Stake)

2:55 Taunton - Honest John (4/1) - 3pt win (info - same source as Laterly on Friday) (3rd)

Today's Selections

It's going to be almost impossible to beat yesterday's results but I will give it my best shot.

12:30 Newbury - Simply Ben (15/2) - 1pt e/w (INFO) (4th - SP 4/1 JF)

1:35 Newbury - Module (11/4) - 3pt win (1st)

1:50 Doncaster - Beyeh (4/1) - 3pt win (2nd)

2:25 Doncaster - Barafundle (7/2) - 3pt win (NB) (2nd)

2:45 Newbury - Clondaw Kaempher (7/4) - 3pt win (NAP) (PU)

Full write up's will hopefully be posted before the first race at 12:30.

Info

3:40 Leicester - Laterly (10/3) -  3pt win - This horse is apparently primed to win today. (1st)

Today's Selections

2:10 Leicester - Denali Highway (7/2) - 3pt win - When I saw this was a memorial race in honour of Pat and Ken Payne I was immediately drawn to Denali Highway who is part owned by Ian Payne who I assume is the couples son. I can't be 100% sure but the only Ken Payne I know of that was involved in racing was a Lambourne based trainer who became famous for his massive punts in selling races. His story is one of the most colourful and extraordinary tales in racing but it's also a reminder of how things can go terribly wrong in this fine sport. Given Ken's history it would be poignant to see him land a gamble from beyond the grave and I believe that Denali has the talent to do it. Although he is still relatively new to chasing he showed enough on his debut in a hot Class 3 contest over today's CD to suggest that he has a future in this game. With a drop in class, a test of stamina certain to be on the cards and a trainer that excels at the course on his side, I think he can win this one. (1st)

3:10 Leicester - Bucking The Trend (3/1) - 3pt win - I very nearly decided to give this race a miss as it looks like a bit of a betting nightmare but in the end I convinced myself to have a punt on the Vaughan runner. I was impressed by this horse both in it's bumper and its debut hurdle win and he appears to be the type of horse that vaughan excels with. Although he's not destined for the dizzy heights, he's more than capable of winning a race like this and I think the nature of the course at Leicester should really play to his strengths.  Although the purchase price of the Jonjo horse appears to be impressive, I was far from impressed by the horses attitude on it's debut run and if he exhibits those idol tendencies again today, then he could be vulnerable on the long uphill run in to the finish. With the favourite looking a bit suspect I believe this could be a prime opportunity for BTT to record his second career win. (1st)

3:35 Leopardstown - Tangled Web (2/1) - 3pt win - This is a no brainer bet for me as every stage on my selection checklist brings me back to this horse. He performed well on debut, has a nice pedigree, a quality jockey and weak opposition. (1st)

Today's Selections

1:30 Kempton - Silver Gypsy (12/1) - 1pt e/w - I'm not sure this is the most sensible selection but something about this horses profile leads me to believe that she may just step up on her recent form today. Although she is yet to race beyond 2m 5f I'm pretty certain that she should relish the step up in trip together with the conditions. She is out of a dam who was a winning PTP runner over 3miles and the Gypsy's best run in recent months came over 22f at Cheltenham on soft ground. Since that race she has been campaigned over distances between 17-20f and despite featuring prominently in the betting she has looked one paced and sluggish at her jumps and has been well beaten on all three occasions. As well as the step up in trip and the ground, SG also has the TP combination on for the second time and that should help her settle into a nice jumping routine. At a current price of 12/1 I believe the horse represents a good e/w and although I wouldn't be surprised if she finished outside of the places, I think she may be the dark horse in the race. (2nd - SP 16/1)

2:05 Kempton - French Opera (9/2) - 3pt win - Make no mistake this horse is going to be extremely difficult to place this season and with that in mind Henderson may well have found this horse the perfect opportunity on his reappearance. Although you have to take his fitness on trust, horses from this yard are usually wound up first time out and with distance and conditions to suit he should run well. He also gets a significant weight allowance from all of his competitors and this could well be a case of perfect product placement. (UP)

2:20 Wetherby - Drumshambo (11/8) - 3pt win - Despite carrying a 7lb penalty for his recent win I still believe this horse has more room for improvement than his competitors. Obviously course specialist Lease Lend is a danger but he's had his problems and was a well beaten favourite last time out. The Ellison horse could prove to be the biggest danger carrying a featherweight but the booking of Kyle James is a major negative for me and with that in mind, Drumshambo is fancied to complete his hatrick. (1st)

2:55 Wetherby - United Park (7/4) - 3pt win - When I was looking through the card last night this horse immediately caught my eye and it wasn't just because his trainer has brought him over from France for the race. The real reason for my interest stems from a conversation I had with a French NH owner earlier this year regard United Park's ex stablemate Unioniste. Unioniste was sold out of the Macaire yard in October this year and immediately made his mark for the Champion trainer when winning the Cheltenham Gold Cup. I had heard good things about the horse in France but I had been told by a connected party that United Park was every bit as good at home on the Gallops in Les Mathes. The horse has already amassed £76,000 in prize money and if he has half the talent of Unioniste then he has to be considered a real contender in today's race. He has form on heavy ground, a great pedigree and the assistance of Mr Reveley in the saddle who has a solid strike rate over fences at the track. (1st)

3:55 Wincanton

The Mobb (9/2) - 3pt win

3:35 Sedgefield

Hellorboston (11/10) - 6pt win

3:10 Kempton

Riverside Theatre (11/2) - 3pt win

0.50pt Reverse Forecast with Long Run (Total Stake = 1pt)

2:35 Kempton

Cinders and Ashes(5/1) - 3pt win

More selections and write ups to follow

Today's selection

3:30 Thurles - It's HighTime (5/1) - 3pt win

2:25 Lingfield

ShadowGate (10/3) - 3pt win

Today's selection

Due to the fact that I have to do some last minute shopping there will be no write up today.

12:55 - De La Bech (3/1) - 3pt win

Today's Selection

3:40 Ascot  - Tiqris (5/1) - 3pt win

The reason for this selection are as follows;

1. Tiqris has the pedigree of a horse which is bred to be well built and fast. The horse's Dam was Calamintha who was related to some nice duel performers including; Son of Flicka and Calomeria (both Class 1 winners). The Dam herself was a smart performer and won 5 times during her career. If you go further back into Calamintha's lineage you hit the likes of Sesame and Celeric who were two of the best middle distance turf performers in the 90's. From this analysis it is evident that the Dam's influence on the Tiqris should have provided him with plenty of speed and that is key when looking for potential bumper winners.

Obviously the Dam is only one half of a horse's bloodstock and although in my opinion its the more prominent half, its always important to see what the Sire brings to the table. In the case of Tiqris, his Sire is Midnight Legend and he happens to be a favourite of mine. Although he is not as prolific as some of the more well know jumps sires, ML's stock is always solid and he has a very good strike rate with his NH progeny (468 runners, 116 wins 35%). His progeny are usually blessed with a high cruising speeds which makes them well suited to tracks such as Ascot. In fact backing the ML's progeny blind at Ascot in NH races in the past few seasons would have returned a substantial profit (+50.25 - 26runs 9 wins). Although I wouldn't usually associate this particular Sire with mud lovers, I was surprised to find that he actually maintains a solid strike rate with his progeny when the ground is officially described as heavy. All things considered, if I was looking to invest in a NH horse to run in a bumper at Ascot and I only had bloodstock to go on, Tiqris would be the one I brought. The heavy ground is clearly not ideal given the horse's speed but I'm confident he will handle it ok.

2. Tiqris is not a newcomer to racing as he had a previous start under rules earlier this year when he ran in a bumper over 17f on GS at Chepstow. He went off at 17/2 that day for Charlie Brooks and finished 2nd after staying on very strongly in the final furlong. The horse first past the post that day was Irish Buccaneer who is very highly thought of in the Hobbs yard and therefore it came as no surprise that when Brooks sent Tiqris to the sales, Mr Brookhouse snapped him up for the handsome price of £90,000. Now at this point it's probably necessary to look at the owners profile as it's very informative. Mr Brookhouse is a very well known and respected owner in both the turf and NH scenes. Over the years he has had a few nice NH horses and on the whole has maintained profit and a solid strike rate since entering the horse racing world. The majority of his horses have been trained by David Pipe, however he does have a small string at the Hobb's yard and the important thing to note, is that he buys bumper horses and the best of them usually end up with Hobbs. As a result Richard Johnson has a 67% win rate when riding for the owner under this code.

3. Over the years Philip has been a trainer to follow in bumpers and although his stats weren't as impressive last year he still knows how to win a NHF race and it's always very dangerous to discard his runners. At the current time he is in fine form and its safe to say that he would have had a few candidates for this race at the start of the month. The fact that he opted to throw in Tiqris, who has been the subject of some very positive gallop/stable reports, tells you everything you need to know about the horses potential. Obviously it's extremely difficult to gauge how a horse will perform after 200 days+ away from the track, in testing conditions, against decent horses but I have every confidence in his ability to get the job done.

4. Do not be tricked into believing that the Pipe horse is unbeatable because he won his bumper by 18 lengths. The fact is that it was a very weak race, he didn't even head the market, I have seen no mention of the horse in any stable or gallop reports and his pedigree is average. At anything short of 2/1 this horse is a liability and is readily opposed. The Henderson horse is interesting but he would have to be very smart to win this on debut and the rest of the horse's going to post look slightly out of their depth. If I was to voice an e/w alternative to my selection then it would be Boss in Boots (33/1) but the trainers form and the horses well being would definitely make it a risky bet.

So, a slightly lengthy post but it should tell my readers everything they need to know about my selection. As always, it will have all been a pointless exercise if the horse doesn't win but with every word I write, my confidence in the selection grows and if the horse is match fit on his reappearance, then in my opinion, he wins.

Best of luck if you join me for the ride again.
   

Today's Selection

3:40 Towcester - Tonvadosa (3/1)  - 6pt Max Win

The reasons for my selection and confidence are as follows;

1. This horse is impeccably bred, her Dam, Sleepless Eye, was a half sister to 4 winners including Wee Robbie, Isn't That Lucky and Monkey Kingdom who were all bumper winners. Her Dam's Sire was Supreme Leader who is a top class jumps Sire and Tonvadosa herself was sired by Flemensfirth who in my opinion is responsible for some of the best NH horses in the last few years. This filly has the pedigree of a horse which should be better than average and she should also mature quicker than most which is a valuable commodity in these filly/mares bumpers.  

2. The horse is trained by Donald McCain and the informed readers  of my blog will be fully aware of how dangerous he is in this discipline. In the last two seasons alone he has been operating at a 22% win rate in bumpers and his place rate is even more impressive. In the last 14 days he has sent out 40 runners and achieved 9 wins for a 23% strike rate and in the month of December he is currently operating at a 30% win percentage. Interestingly though, McCain actually has an average strike rate at Towcester and that would be a slight concern but a similar comment would apply to most of the trainers represented today.  

3. Another really interesting thing about this horse is it's owners. Dominic Burke is one of the founders of Whitley Stud, he is also the director of Newbury racecourse and a CEO of one of the World's largest insurance brokers. At the current time I believe he has 2 national hunt horses in training with Jonjo (Wild Rhubarb and Amber Cloud). Over the last few seasons Mr Burke's NH horses have operated at a very impressive strike rate of 37.5% and therefore it's safe to say that he is a very shrewd operator.  

The other shareholder in the horse is Tony Meehan and he is another owner who has had plenty of success with his small but powerful string of horse's. Tony's strike rate is very similar to his partners; he has achieved a 31% win rate in recent seasons, he has a 50% strike rate at Towcester, a 50% strike rate in bumpers (3 from 6) and a 33% strike rate when employing Jason Maguire (4 from 12).  Both of these two men know how to own a winner and more importantly they know what they have to do to enhance a horse's sale price and that is very important when you're looking at potential Broodmares.  

4. There is no getting away from the fact that this is a very weak bumper. Of the horses represented very few of them hold appealing profiles from a breeding/form perspective. The form of Agent Fedora's race looks very suspect  and in my opinion you can always oppose a penalty runner in a bumper. Bobble Boru is interesting given her trainers solid record at the track. The booking of Sam Thomas also catches the eye as he has a good record for the owner but the horse's pedigree is very average and she was unsold at the sales which is always a concern. Lilly Brook clearly has room for improvement and it's interesting to note that she was much shorter in the betting than Fine Moment and Cabaret Girl when making her debut at Warwick last month. I still feel that the horse lacks the pace to win a bumper though and for that reason I believe she can be over looked even in today's conditions. The only other horse who can possibly be considered is Sweet Like You and if I was going to oppose my selection this would be the horse I picked. She was far from disgraced in mixed sex company on debut and he pedigree suggests that she may just be capable of winning a bumper. The trainers current form is obviously a major negative though as is the fact that she's not certain to like the ground.  

So, there you have it, an all encompassing review of the race and detailed explanation as to why I am so confident of Tonvadosa's chances today. The proof will as always be in the pudding though and this will have all been a waste of time if the horse doesn't win. Given the nature of her connections the performance in the market over the next few hours will be a key indicator of the horse's chances and some may want to wait and see whether she is the subject of a move. Having already backed her myself, I'm strapped in and ready for the ride to begin. Who's coming with me?"

Today's Selection

3:45 Ludlow - Little Pop (9/2) - 3pt win

Big Word For Tomorrow

4:55 Kempton -Moorhouse Lad (7/1) - 3pt win -this will hopefully be an early Christmas present for the readers and the horse is expected to win. For those who prefer to air on the side of caution, there is plenty of ew value.

Today's Selections

3:55 Wolverhampton - Gabrial's King (3/1)  - 3pt win
4:25 Wolverhampton - Gabrial the Boss (4/1) - 3pt win

1:00 Lingfield

NOT BY CHOICE (9/1)  -3PT WIN (INFO)

Today's Selection

12:30 Lingfield - Buxton (7/1) - 3pt win & Jackie Love (14/1) - 1pt e/w

Also a 0.50pt Reverse Forecast (Total Stake 1pt)

Today's Selections

1:10 Lingfield - Billy Red (5/1) - 3pt win
1:20 Mussel - Freddy Brown (12/1) -1pt e/w
2:00 Fakenham - Frontier Spirit (7/2) - 3pt win
2:10 Lingfield - Hill Street (7/2) - 3pt win

3:40 Sandown

Golan Way (4/1) - 6pt win

Today's Selections

I have to apologise for the terrible run of form recently, for one reason or another my mind hasn't really been on the game and my profit has been affected as a result. Despite that, I settled down last night with a stiff drink and my laptop and set about looking through today's cards in the hope of finding some decent betting prospects. After a few hours of deliberation I did just that and with two of today's bets also featuring on my horses to follow list I am confident of a really good day.


12:40 Sandown - Another Sensation (10/3) - 3pt win - Now this is a horse which I've heard some very positive reports about and there is no doubt that the form of some of his runs in France looks promising in the context of today's race. I'm always a bit suspect of backing these particular connections as you never really know what kind of horse will show up on the day but Jonjo has been in stunning form recently and this may well be the time to catch his horse's. The nature of the course should be in the horse's favour as he likes to race prominently or lead and his pedigree and past performances suggest that the ground will not be an issue. With plenty in his favour and with the other horse's at the head of the market carrying penalties, I think this horse may have been found a perfect opportunity to make a winning start. (Horse To Follow)

1:10 Sandown - Sustainability (10/3) - 3pt win - A very interesting race and it was difficult for me to choose between this horse and Tanks For Coming but in the end I decided to side with the horse who I believe is best suited by today's conditions and that is definitely Sustainability. The horse's record on soft ground is very good and although he was only rated at 116 over hurdles, he has always been a horse who would improve significantly once sent chasing and I think he may just have enough to see off the likes of the Henderson and Vaughan horses who may struggle for varying reasons today.

1:45 Sandown - UP and Go (7/2) - 3pt win -  This horse is no 1 on my horses to follow list this season and quite simply, in my opinion, he will not be beaten today. If my recent form had been better then this would have been a max bet but I will wait until I have a few winners before placing any more double stake bets. (horse to follow)

Today's Selection

2:55 - Alaskan Bullet (4/1) - 3pt win

Today's Selection

12:30 Folkstone - Dom Lukka (4/1) - 6pt win - Firstly, I just want to confirm that the level of the stake is due to the fact that this is my only bet today. Despite that, I think this horse has a real chance of winning what looks to be a very weak race. The track is going to suit him down to the ground as will the soft conditions and he has shown gradual improvement in his two starts in this country. Given his trainers current form and Fehily's strike rate at the track, I think this horse has all the makings of a winner and the price of 4/1 looks very generous.

Kempton Tips

3:20 - El Buen Turista (7/2) - 3pt win
3:50 - Handiwork (14/1) - 1pt e/w
4:20 - Storm Runner (4/1) - 3pt win

Today's Info Selection

3:40 Plumpton - Massini Lotto (5/2) - 6pt win (info)

0.50 Reverse Forecast with Kings Palace (1pt Total Stake)

More bets to follow.

1:25 Newbury

Global Power (8/1) - 1pt ew
Seven Wood (12/1) - 1pt ew

12:50

Ma Filleule (7/4)  -3pt win

Newbury Selections

12:30 - Vasco D'ycy (7/1) - 1pt e/w - With the benefit of race fitness and hurdling experience I would think this horse can give the favourite a run for his money. The cash for the Tizzard horse is interesting given the horses profile and purchase price but I have a feeling he may be one for another day. 

1:00 - Glorious Twelfth (13/8) - 3pt win - Plenty of potential winners in this line up but Geraghty's mount clear stands out as a potentially smart individual. Anyone who reads the stable reports will know that this mare is highly thought of and her performances last season on graded tracks sets her apart from her opposition today. She has apparently schooled very well and if ready to go first time out, she should win. 

1:30 - Captain Paulie (14/1) - 1pt e/w - Very difficult race to call given the size of the field and the range of horse profiles but I quietly fancy this individual. CP recently moved the the Williams yard and put in a good performance last time out. He seems to have thrived in big fields in the past and although the ground may be on the soft side for him, he is clearly weighted to win a race on his past form and that makes him very dangerous given the yard which he's joined. 

2:05 - Court In Motion (5/1) - 1pt e/w - There is no doubt that this horse is now starting to taste my patience and although Dynaste is obviously the horse to beat, I'm hoping Court in Motion can improve from his run a few weeks ago and confirm the promise he has been showing at home. He meets a few of the key trends for the race and with Geraghty in the saddle you know you will get a run for your money. 

2:40 - Ballybough Pat (4/1) - 3pt win - Given the size of the field this horse is definitely short enough in the market and I was tempted to side with Lundy Sky who looked like a solid e/w bet. But in the end BP was the obvious choice. His previous form is solid and his trainer has a solid track record with these types and clearly thinks he is capable of putting in a solid performance against more experienced opposition. 

3:15 - The Knoxs (3/1) -3pt win - Nicholls is the master of weight manipulation and the inclusion of Tantaniano in this race means that my selections gets to carry a very attractive weight. Although his win last time out wasn't faultless, I would expect him to improve and he should be capable of defying a 5lb rise.  Ruby takes the ride, conditions should suit and he will be difficult to beat. 

3:45 - Puffin Billy (11/8) - 3pt win - Any horse than can win a bumper under a penalty has to be given considerable respect and the way PB went about his work in his two NHF wins was very, very impressive. If his trainer has taught him how to jump a hurdle then this horse could be absolutely anything and he should be winning a race like this and moving on to bigger and better things. 

Kempton Selections

5:05 - Shamiana (11/8) - 3pt win

7:05 - Taffe (28/1) - 1pt ew (info)

Today's Jump Selections

1:05 Taunton - Cool George (6/1) - 1pt e/w

2:05 Newbury - Houblon Des Obeaux (6/4) - 3pt win

3:15 Newbury - Vendor (7/2) - 3pt win

3:35 Uttoxeter - Spitfire Ace (5/2)  -3pt win

3:55 Taunton - For The Staff (7/4) - 3pt win

Kempton Selections

5:30 - Rivellino (9/4) - 3pt win (1st)
7:00 - Iver Bridge Lad (6/1) - 3pt win (Info) (2nd - SP 5/2)

1pt Double

4:20 Wolves

Jack Whos He (4/1) - 3pt win

0.50pt Reverse Forecast - Dubawi Island (total stake 1pt)

3:30 Wolves & 3:25 Limerick

3:30 Wolves - York Glory (11/8) - 3pt win (1st)

0.50pt Reverse Forecast with Alaskan Bullet (3rd) (Total Stake = 1pt)



3:25 Limerick - The Bishops Niece (22/1) - 1pt e/w (3rd)


No more selections now until Kempton this evening.

2:35 Lingfield

Unfortunately I've been a bit short of time today so I will be posting up my selections under individual headings rather than all in one post. I will try to get each one up at least 20 minutes before race time and I also have a bit of info for kempton so watch this space.

Come On Blue Chip (7/2) - 3pt win (UP)

Today's Selections

Unfortunately the weather has once again taken it's toll on today's racing and unfortunately with the ground described as extremely heavy at Lingfield I won't be having a financial interest in any of the races today. To keep things interesting though I will be providing my readers with a theoretical selection in each race and will also be detailing a few stats which will hopefully help those brave people who are betting today to find a couple of winners.

MUD LOVING SIRES
As most of you know I love the breeding aspect of horse racing and the ability to handle soft/heavy conditions is definitely an attribute which is capable of being passed on from a horses sire. With that in mind it's always good to look at those Sires who have a solid record of producing mud loving progeny and there are a few on show at Lingers today. To qualify a sire must have had at least 50 NH runners on ground described as heavy in the last 2 years and and must have achieved a minimum win rate of 10%.

Kayf Tara - 14% Strike rate on heavy ground in NH races in the last 2 years (97 runs, 14 wins, 35 place)

Beneficial - 11% Strike rate on heavy ground in NH races in the last 2 years (392 runs, 45 wins,109 place)

Montjeu - 13% Strike rate on heavy ground in NH races in the last 2 years (72 runs, 9 wins, 17 place)

Kings Theatre -15% strike rate on heavy ground in NH races in the last 2 years(185 runs,28 win,65 place)

Lord Americo - 13% Strike rate on heavy ground in NH races in the last 2 years (56 runs, 7 wins,21 place)

Karinga Bay -10% Strike rate on heavy ground in NH races in the last 2 years (77 runs, 8 wins, 16 places)

Alderbrook - 14% Strike rate on heavy ground in NH races in the last 2 years (94 runs, 13 wins,29 places)

Old Vic - 11% Strike rate on heavy ground in NH races in the last 2 years (212 runs, 23 wins, 59 places)

Cloudings - 11% Strike rate on heavy ground in NH races in the last 2 years (53 runs, 6 wins, 13 places)


BEEN THERE DONE THAT
Although a runners sire may given you an indication of whether the horse will be able to handle the mud, there is no substitute for experience and therefore it's of paramount importance that punters look to zone in on any horse who is proven in the conditions. Another key aspect to remember, is that soft ground is very different from heavy ground and therefore one shouldn't automatically assume that a soft ground performer will handle heavy going.  With that in mind we are looking only for horses who have won or placed on ground described as heavy and I have detailed a few of them below.

Hidden Identity (Beneficial)
Lady Willa (Footstepsinthesand)
Rosoff (New Frontier)
Aikideau (La Balafre)
Dormouse (Medicean)
Pete the Feat (Kings Theatre)
Pensnett Bay (Karinga Bay)


WATCH THEM RUN INTO THE DISTANCE
It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that testing conditions lead to a test of stamina and therefore a horses ability to stay the trip and stay it well, is a valuable commodity. Personally I would be very weary of any horse which is stepping up in trip for the first time today or has failed to at least place in a previous race over today's distance. The next thing to avoid are horses  wearing tongue ties as breathing issues can be exasperated by testing conditions and therefore horses with breathing aids may tire quickly.

In summary, its always difficult to find winners when the conditions deteriorate but punters can use all the tools at their disposal to try and find something to place their money on. My advice would be to look for horses who have proved themselves in the mud, stay the trip and don't have a breathing aid. I would also avoid horses who have run in the last 15 days, together with those who are not proven when carrying weight.


MY THEORETICAL SELECTIONS

Hidden Identity (1/2) 
Queen of the West (16/1) 
De La Bech (5/1) 
Cantlow (2/1) 
Dormouse (3/1) 
Pesnett Bay (10/3) 
Micah (20/1) 

For those readers placing a bet today, I wish you the best of luck because my god are you going to need it. My advice, keep your money in your pocket and wait for another day!

Today's Selections

With the weather taking it's toll on the racing calendar today is probably a day to keep your money in your pocket but a few horses have caught my eye, so we will just have to keep our fingers crossed that the rain stays away this afternoon.

12:30 Kempton - Den of Inquity (22/1) - 1pt e/w - My most speculative selection today given the trainers terrible Nation Hunt record but unlike most of his opposition you know that this horse will relish the difficult conditions today and despite being 11 years old, I believe he is more than capable of winning over hurdles off his current mark, especially given the frailties of his opposition today.

1:10 Ludlow - Dare Me (2/1) - 3pt win - I've heard some very positive reports about this horse and it's schooling and he is apparently well fancied to make a winning chase debut. There is no doubt that on his previous hurdling form, he is the most likely winner and with the yard in fine form and given the trainers solid record at the track, this has all the makings of a solid win bet.

1:30 Kempton - Spirit River (9/4) - 3pt win - Like Mr Henderson I always thought this horse would develop into a high class chaser but following a few falls early in the season last year the horse seemed to lose all of his confidence and it was down hill from there. Over the summer Spirit has had extensive surgery to rectify substantial problems with his breathing and I'm hoping that will have a positive effect on his performance today. As a 7 year old he still has time to improve and with an OR of 145 over hurdles, he has to be respected in today's company. This looks like the perfect platform for the horse to kick start his chasing career and if he fails to win today, I think the yard will have to accept that he may be destined for low grade handicaps rather than festival appearances.

2:05 Kempton - Miss Milborne (6/1) - 1pt e/w - An ultra competitive listed mares hurdle and I believe my selection holds solid claims, at an e/w price. Although the likes of Kells Belle and Knockfierna will be difficult to beat, both have questions to answer though and my personal feeling is that MM is in form, suited by conditions and is real battler. She is still relatively unexposed as a 6yo having only raced 8 times over hurdles and although her future will ultimately lie over fences, she may just have one more big race over hurdles left in her.

Japan Cup

6:40 Tokyo - Orfevre (7/4) - 6pt win (2nd)

Todays Selections

2:00 Haydock - Universal Soldier (10/3) - 6pt win (2nd)
2:30 Haydock - Sivola De Sivola (9/2) - 3pt win (3rd)
3:05 Haydock - Long Run (7/4) - 3pt win (2nd)
2:10 Ascot -  Finnian's Rainbow (1/1) - 3pt win (UP)

Today's Selections

12:55 Ascot - Many Clouds (4/1) - 3pt win (1st)

1:55 Haydock - Super Duty (7/2) - 3pt win (2nd)

2:05 Ascot - Close Touch (8/13) - 3pt win (1st)

2:30 Haydock - Clondaw Kaempfer (4/5) - 3pt win (1st - SP 6/5)

3:05 Haydock - Wilton Milan (2/1) - 3pt win (3rd)

Some really good jumps racing today and all five of my selections feature on my horses to follow list. Although the likes of Close Touch and Clondaw are short enough in the betting, I still believe that both horses should win their respective races with ease and if they do then the current prices (especially Clondaw's) will look like great value.

Today's Selections

2:30 Meydan - Interpret (5/1) - 3pt win (2nd)
3:10 Market Rasen - Billy Cuckoo (5/2) - 3pt win (UP)
7:10 Kempton - Triple Charm (11/4) - 3pt win (UP)


5:40 Kempton - Embankment (6/1) - 1pt e/w (1st - SP 10/1) 
6:40 Kempton - Be Perfect (11/1) - 1pt e/w (2nd)

Today's Selections

1:40 Hexham - Dotties Dilema (11/4) - 3pt win (2nd)
3:40 Hexham - Rupert Bear (5/2) - 3pt win (1st)
6:30 Kempton - Pearl Mix (9/2) - 3pt win (1st)

Today's Selection

12:20- honest strike (11/2) - 3pt win

I'm currently in Germany so finding the time to study the cards has been difficult. Normal service will resume tomorrow.

Today's Selection

2:35 - Grand Crus (2/1) - 6pt win

Today's Selections

2:25 Cheltenham - Dodging Bullets (5/4) - 3pt win

3:45 Newcastle - Liberty Court (10/3) - 3pt win

Today's Selections

3:40 Taunton - Malin Head (3/1) - 3pt win
6:55 Kempton - Tommy's Secret (9/1) - 1pt e/w

Today's Selections

2:30 Bangor - Moidore (11/10) - 3pt win

3:30 Bangor - Drum Valley (13/8) - 3pt win

3:35 Downpatrick - Curley Bill (15/8) - 3pt win

4:00 Bangor - Lucanor (7/1) - 1pt e/w (info)

4:25 Kempton - Renegotiate (6/5) - 3pt win

4:00 Lingfield (Info)

Pepelina (3/1) - 3pt win - connections have been waiting for a long time to get this one out and today's the day. She works very well at home is impeccably bred and should be extremely difficult to beat.

Today's Selection

I was so glad that yesterday went well because it was very important to get things back on track after last weeks poor performance.

You know the NH season has started when you see three jumps meetings on one day and to be honest the majority of the racing today is poor. Despite there a few nice betting prospects and I'm hopeful that today will match yesterdays results.

2:10 Huntingdon - Tadabeer (33/1) - 1pt e/w - This is probably an optimistic selection but I do believe that this horse has what it takes to be competitive in a race like this. On his previous flat form he is weighted to be competitive with the other ex turf horses in the field and unlike most of them has some hurdling experience. Obviously his previous 2 performances in today's discipline were nothing to get too excited about but both races featured some nice individuals and it Tadabeer was clearly using them as schooling exercises. Williams does well with horses such as this and he is definitely a trainer to follow at Huntingdon having maintained a 21% strike rate with his hurdlers there in recent years.


2:40 Huntingdon - Rajdhani Express (2/1) - 3pt win - A horse who was largely disappointing last season having previously shown some smart form in France. Henderson has actually given this horse a wind op which is not something he does too often but if it has the desired effect, then this horse could prove to be extremely well handicapped. Obviously the Nicholls horse deserves respect but at the current prices I prefer Rajdhani although the presence of SWC nearly put me off.


3:10 Huntingdon - Countess Comet (3/1) - 3pt win - Very little to say about this horse as it's an info selection. The word received is that a big run is expected and she should be difficult to beat.


3:20 Sedgefield - Carpincho (9/2) - 3pt win - Plenty in this horses favour today as he seems to be getting his ideal race conditions. He showed some smart form last season before putting in a few disappointing efforts in the final few runs of his campaign. His connections have now reached for the tongue tie, which looks like a sensible decision as the horse seemed to be fading towards the end of his races (possible sign of breathing issues). Having only had a handful of runs the horse clearly has further room for improvement and I would be disappointed if he wasn't competitive today.


3:40 Huntingdon - Nurse Ratched (3/1) - 3pt win - In all honesty this is a terrible bumper but for that reason, Nurse Ratched stands out like a sore thumb! If the horse is ready to do herself justice on her first start then she's definitely bred to win a race like this and the fact that Timmy hangs around to take the mount, can add to my confidence.


3:50 Sedgefield - Scriptwriter (9/1) - 1pt e/w - Difficult to oppose a horse which such a solid CD record and off his current mark he can definitely put in a big run here today.

4:00 Carlisle

No Deal (4/1) - 3pt win - Big run expected from this horse and should get the job done well.

0.50pt reverse forecast - No Deal and Cloud Creeper

Today's Selections

There is no doubt that last week was one of the worst weeks in my betting career to date. My bets over the course of the week resulted in a net loss of over 20pts and that quite frankly is unacceptable. I spent the majority of my Sunday tinkering with my selection process and studying my betting journals and I can promise my readers that we won't be experiencing a loss like that again any time soon!


Due to the adverse weather conditions elsewhere I will be concentrating my efforts on the jumps card at Southwell today.

12:40 - Tatispout (3/1) - 3pt win - Not a great little race this but the Longsdon horse does look like a value bet against the current favourite. The horse has been out of sorts recently but I'm hoping the combination of a return to good ground and a small field will spark a revival. He is definitely more than capable on his day and Longsdon has targeted the course at Southwell to good effect in recent times. On the pick of his previous form, he clearly well handicapped and providing he stays on his feet, he should run well.

1:10 - Legendary Hop (11/2) - 1pt e/w - I'm taking a punt here on the top weight who in my opinion has more room for improvement than most of his competitors  To date this horse has only had 7 career runs and this race today is only his second over fences. His previous experience came in a class 3  beginners chase and it was no surprise that he was outclassed. Today's race looks more realistic, he should be race fit after his previous outing and his trainer has a solid strike rate with his chasers and is 4 from 18 at the track in recent seasons.

3:50 - Ballyalton (1/1) - 3pt win - This is a horse from my to follow list and it's one which I fully expect to win today. I have heard some very positive things about this horse over the last few weeks and the rumours circulating are this one is going to be the subject of a major punt by it's gambling connections. All things considered it would be a very brave man who opposes this horse today.

Today's Selections

1:25 Doncaster - Front Page News (14/1) - 1pt e/w

2:00 Doncaster - Wannabe  Love (12/1) - 1pt e/w

2:15 Wincanton - Court in Motion (7/2) - 3pt win

2:50 Wincanton - Prospect Wells (5/2) - 3pt win

3:25 Wincanton - Golden Chieftain (7/1) - 1pt ew

4:00 Wincanton - The Stout Italian (7/2) - 3pt win

Today's Selections

Unfortunately no write up's today due to time constraints.

1:20 Musselburgh - Restraint (9/4) -  3pt win

1:50 Musselburgh - Swift Escape (6/1) - 1pt e/w

2:50 Musselburgh - Simple Ned (7/4) - 3pt win

4:10 Fontwell - Hands on Bach (9/2) - 3pt win

INFO - I've received a few bits of info today from Musselburgh but having looked at the horses and their opposition, both selections look rather suspect and I was initially minded to overlook them. However, this particular source has provided us with two nice winners in the last two days (5/1 & 4/1) and therefore I'm willing to have a small punt on both of them.

2:20 Musselburgh - Ifyouthinkso (5/1) - 1pt e/w

2:50 Musselburgh - Unknown Rebel (10/1) - 1pt e/w

Info - 7:50 Wolves

Guarda Pampa (16/1) - 1pt ew - a big run is apparently expected from this horse tonight. Obviously a risky betting proposition but it's a nice price and it's a weak race so who knows, maybe the info will prove to be spot on.

3:00 Meydan

Final Recovery (3/1) - 3pt win - After just being denied on Interpret in the opener Smith will be looking for blood here and this horse definitely has what it takes to win this race. His previous run at Jebel Ali should have blown away the cobwebs and with Watson going into the race heavy handed the booking of Smith should tell punters everything they need to know. I expect him to win and win well.

2:30 Meydan

Interpret (5/1) - 3pt win - Basically, having spotted that this particular horse is making his debut today,  I have to back him.

A few years ago a friend of mine was working for a bloodstock expert in America where he was given the task of cruising the lesser sales for low grade handicap types for syndicates. He wasn't spotting classic winners but he enjoyed his job and he still got a great degree of pleasure when the horses he had selected went on to win money for their connections. Anyway, one day he gets a phone call from his boss and he's excited, he tells him that a horse is due to go through the sales ring at Saratoga which has everyone talking and the general feeling among the experts is that this horse could be the golden ticket. Obviously my friend wasn't experienced enough to make that kind of assessment but his boss invited him to tag along for the ride and what a ride it proved to be.

The buzz horse that day was Interpret, a Distorted Humour colt out of a Interprete mare. He was a half brother to the incredible Invasor who was a Breeders Cup and Dubai Cup winner (beaten once in 12 starts), together with a triple crown winner in South America and a Dam who was a half sister to a Group 1 winner in Argentina. The horse was an incredible specimen, well built, appeared to have an impeccable temperament and his action was a thing of beauty. Having observed the horse all of the experts agreed that this horse was one for the history books and what ensued was a bidding frenzy. Having seen his boss pull-out of the bidding war at the heady price of $500,000 he watched in awe as 3 agents continued to bid until the horse was eventually sold to the master of the sales John Ferguson for $900,000.

With their tails between their legs they left Saratoga that day feeling like they had just missed out on purchasing the next all american superstar but the reality couldn't have been further from the truth. Following that day in August everything fell apart for Interpret and at the age of 4 he finally makes his race course debut on the Tapeta at Meydan, in a lowish grade maiden, over 7f and he's wearing a visor! Despite that, I still feel I owe  a duty to back him and if he's half the horse which my friend and the other agents saw at the sales all those years ago, then he should still be more then capable of demolishing his opposition today. I will maintain the faith until he proves me wrong and at the moment I'm taking comfort in the fact that he remains a colt and his connections have persevered with him.

No matter what happens today, this horse sums up the difficulties trainers, owners and agents experience when trying to purchase the next superstar. Okay, the horse still has time to become a winner but he will never be the horses that his connections believed he could be. I have to take this opportunity to congratulate his owners though, who have stuck by him through the dark times when it would have been so easy just to offload him to a lesser yard. I for one, hope he wins today and goes on to have a successful campaign in Dubai this winter but like so many things in this wonderful sport, most outcomes will be decided by the racing Gods but the trials and tribulations of racing are what makes this such an enthralling sport.

Today Selections/Info

1:30 Musselburgh - Dovils Date (6/4) - 3pt win - This horse was an average flat horse but has taken to hurdling very well and having move to a yard which does extremely well with it's new recruits (especially favs) I expect a big showing from this one today.


2:20 Towecester - Destroyer Deployed (5/1) - 1pt e/w - I always thought this horse would develop into a nice hurdler but his season last year was terrible and his jumping left a lot to be desired. I saw in a recent stable tour that his trainer has sharpened up and he's apparently improved considerably. If that does prove to be the case then his current mark could well prove to be on the low side. 


2:30 Musselburgh - Civil Unrest (4/1) - 3pt win (Info) - This horse had a few decent bits of form last season but for one reason or another his form tailed off towards the end of the campaign and he never really fulfilled his potential. His connections have been schooling him over fences for a while now and he has been showing a high degree of promise. They strong believe that he should get his ideal conditions today and providing that he stays on his feet they think he should go close. They don't want any rain so watch out for that before placing your bet on this one.


3:50 Towcester - Pastoral (7/4) - 3pt win - A Juddmonte bred filly who should be very competitive today if fit enough to do herself justice. Her Dam was a nice middle distance flat performer out of King's Theatre and I have a feeling that this one may turn out to be quite smart.


That completes today's jumps selections but I'm waiting on a further piece of info at Musselburgh and will also have a look at the Meydan card to see if anything catches my eye there.

Warwick Info

12:50 Dormouse (5/1) - 3pt win- Apparently well fancied and a very large gamble expected to be landed. (1st)

Today's Selections

Very disappointed with yesterdays results but once again it highlighted the success of my Horses to Follow list as Arctic Roller, Landscape and Theatre Guide all won. Selections from the HTF will be highlighted in red.

I'm slightly short of time today so there won't be any detailed write up's I'm afraid but if you have any questions about the selections don't hesitate to email me or leave a comment and I will get back to you.

1:00 Chepstow - Bladoun (4/5 - 2 places) - 3pt bet

2:10 Nottingham - Motion Lass (9/4) - 3pt win

2:20 Warwick - Hazy Tom (6/4) - 3pt win

3:40 Chepstow - For the Staff (7/2) - 3pt win INFO

4:05 Warwick - Fine Moment (9/1) - 1pt e/w

Info

5:30Wolves - Sandy Lane (6/1) - 3pt win

Today's Selections

Today features one of the highlights of the early season jumps calendar with the Haldon Gold Cup meeting at Exeter. Its a difficult meeting for me though as it features a large number of my horses to follow together with one entry which is of significant personal interest. The following horses from my to follow list hold entries today; Atlantic Roller, Salmanazar, The Potting Shed, Look For Love, Landscape, Billy Twyford, Regal Presence, Menorah, Theatre Guide and Hinterland.

Obviously I cant back them all, so here are today's selections;

1:50 Exeter - The Potting Shed (10/1) - 1pt e/w - This horse was the subject of a major gamble which went astray in a PTP race earlier in the year. The horse was smashed in the betting as stable money flooded in for him and news of the plot began to spread amongst the racing community. Unfortunately the horse went down by a length to a resolute winner and the yards money ended up in the pockets of the bookies. Since then, the horse has changed hands and according to recent reports has been working immaculately at home with some of the yards leading lights. Mrs Lavelle has really hit form in the last few days and having one this race in the past with Court in Motion, it's clearly a race she targets with her top recruits. I don't doubt for a second that the likes of Atlantic Roller and Salmanazar will be competitive but its rare that this shrewd trainer is so vocal about one of her horses ability and I just have a feeling the this horse could be a very smart individual.


2:20 Exeter - Look For Love (14/1) - 1pt e/w - Everything is telling me to back Billy Twyford in this race as McCoy has a stunning strike rate for Henderson in recent times and the horse has the profile of a progressive individual. However for one reason or another I've sided with Look For Love and I just hope I don't end up with egg on my face come the end of the race.


2:50 Exeter - Menorah (3/1) -3pt win - Although I have a strong affection for Cue Card, personally I feel that Menorah is the value bet in the race. Hobbs has a solid record in the Haldon and top weights usually perform with credit. The horse himself usually comes to hand early in the season and will have no problem with the conditions as he has a stunning strike rate on ground described as good to soft. He also does well on undulating courses and unlike Cue Card has experience going right handed. I know for a fact that Hobbs has always seen this race as Menorah's intended target since the end of last season and I expect him to be fully wound up as his performance today will decide his path this season in terms of big race entries. For me its one of those races which you could decide on the toss of a coin but when you consider the difference in price, Menorah is the obvious pick.

Today's Selections

After a disappointing weekend I fully intend to get back on track today as I look to hit my target of 350pts profit by the end of November. With just the one flat meeting at Wolverhampton today it looks as if the jumps cards at Plumpton and Kempton will be the place to find a few winners and that is where I will be concentrating my efforts.

1:00 Kempton - Rysbrack (10/3) - 3pt win - Not a particularly strong race for the course and it looks to be a perfect opportunity for Rysbrack to get a hurdles win under his belt. For those that don't know, the horse is an absolute monster and measures in excess of 17 hands! He made a winning start for the yard back in June last year when winning an above average NHF race at Worcester. He went off as favourite that day and won despite showing signs of greeness. A couple of horses in behind him have subsequently performed well over hurdles and the form is working out very nicely. Since that race his trainer elected to campaign him on the turf and although he didn't win a race he performed with credit on numerous occasions. His trainer has always considered him to be a nice National Hunt horse and I expected him to run well in what appears to be a weak race. (2nd)


2:40 Kempton - Black Thunder (3/1) - 3pt win - This is a horse who should progress into a very nice chaser this season but for the time being I think he has at least one more race in him over hurdles. His season last year as a novice was very pleasing and his back to back wins at Chepstow and Tauton represent solid form in the context of this race. Most NH punter will be aware of the fact that Nicholls excels in November and his strike rate at the course is also very pleasing. Having looked at this race for sometime, there is no doubt that there are a few potential spoilers going to post but I think Black Thunder is head and shoulders above his opposition and I expected him to win and win well. (3rd)


2:50 Wolverhampton - Alaskan Bullet (13/8) - 3pt win - I don't usually back in selling races but to me this looks like a no brainer. The race itself is incredibly weak but Alaskan put in a solid performance last time out over CD when he recorded a speed rating which has to be taken very seriously in the context of this race. Many people have a few gripes with Bakers riding style but personally I think he's top notch and in a race like this he should be able to use the horses speed to win this race right on the line. At the current time I'm struggling to find any viable alternative to AB and it's only the low class nature of the race which has prevented me from max betting this one. (1st)


4:25 Wolverhampton - Maun Vrat (4/5) - 3pt win - You don't have to be a rocket scientist to come to the conclusion that Maun Vrat really should be winning this race given her considerable weight advantage. Due to the age and sex allowances she appears to have been placed to perfection by Ed Dunlop who has always targets meeting at Wolves to very good effect. He has also booked Graham Lee to take the ride who has a 33% strike rate for the yard this season and is already proving himself to be a real threat as a flat jockey. All thing considered, provided she gets a strong pace to aim at, I can't see her being beaten. (UP)

Today's Selection

2:40 Carlisle - Rival D'Estruval (11/8) - 6pt Max Win - Just the one bet today and it's a max. The horse won in fine style last time out and is definitely put in an advantageous position by today's weights. One of the deciding factors  behind my selection today though is the yards connection to man who is the subject of today's memorial race, Colin Parker.

12:35 Santa Anita

Ron the Greek (7/1) - 1pt e/w & 3pt win

11:40 Santa Anita

Obviously (12/1) - 1pt ew

10:18 Santa Anita

Trailblazer (5/1) - 3pt win

8:14 Santa Anita

Fed Biz (5/1) - 3pt win

More Breeders Cup meet selections to follow

Hills Info

12:45 Newmarket - Not Truth (7/1) - 1pt e/w
1:55 Newmarket - Desert Image (2/1) - 3pt win

Both horses are expected to put in big performances today.

Breeders Cup Selections

Detailed write up's of each race to follow soon. I will only be backing the horse which have a stake detailed next to them but for those punters who are looking to place additional bets I will be providing my selection for each and every race

8:06 - Merit Man (7/4) - No Bet

8:46 - Juniper Pass (20/1)  - No Bet

9:28 - Spring Venture (6/1)  - 1pt e/w & Watsdachances (7/1) - 1pt e/w (0.50pt Reverse Forecast)

10:08 - Executive Privilege (2/1) - 3pt win (NAP)

10:48 - Hahrain (13/2) - 1pt e/w (NB)

11:30 - Royal Delta (11/4) - No Bet

12:15 - Speaking of Witch (2/1) - No Bet

4:05 Uttoxeter

WESTERLY BREEZE (10/1) - 1pt e/w - I'm a sucker for a bumper race and on the basis of this horses pedigree he should have a major say in this race. I obviously respect the favourite who is also bred to be smart and definitely wasn't a cheap purchase so to cover my back I will also be placing a reverse forecast bet. Side Bet - Westerly Breeze and Dreams of Milan - 0.50pt Reverse Forecast (Total Stake 1pt)

Additional Bet = Westerly Breeze (10/3) - 3pt win - Betting without Dreams of Milan or Ballinvarrig



Breeders Cup selections to follow later this evening.

Info

2:55 Uttoxeter - Grassfinch (9/2) - 3pt win - Apparently very well fancied in this contest and should win with a bit up her sleeve. (1st)

2:35 Wetherby

Flashman (13/2) - 1pt e.w - Now this is an interesting little race which has been thrown wide open by the withdrawal of McCoys mount. I'm taking a risk here as the Nicholls horse actually features on my horses to follow list but from what I've read and heard about him, he hasn't done an awful lot of work since arriving at the yard and Paul isn't 100% sure what his best trip is. With that in mind I feel that connections may use this race as an educational exercise and therefore we may see an outsider taking the prize home and I believe that outsider may well be Flashman. Flashman was a reasonable performer on the flat and his sire has had a tremendous start with his jumpers. He handles soft ground and his trainer targets this course when it comes to his jumpers and his position in the market suggests to me that a big run is expected. (2nd)

First Jump Selection

1:00 Wetherby - Spanish Art (10/1) - 1pt e/w - I'm seriously short of time here so I'm going to keep this one brief. The fact is that this horse was smashed in the betting LTO but failed to live up to expectations. A lot of the yards horses have been needing the run and I expect a much better showing here today. He's up against a few horses that may well need the run and I think he is a very appealing price at 10/1.

More bets to follow.

Today's Selections

Today is officially a bumper day of racing and today's blog will feature info from Newmarket, a banker in Jebel Ali, a couple of e/w punts in America and two potentially smart national hunt bets. Obviously with so many things going on it will pay to keep popping back to the blog throughout the day because with the flat season winding down and the NH season kicking into gear there are sure to be plenty of gambles going on. I'm also going to be detailing my thought on most of today's Breeders Cup races throughout the day/evening so keep an eye out for those.

11:35 Jebel Ali - MY VERSE (7/2) - 3pt Win - Those people that know me well will know that I love the UAE racing and with the season kicking off today the first thing I did this morning was look through the card and this little beauty immediately caught my eye. My Verse races in the colours of Maktoum and is a Jebel Ali specialist, runs well fresh and has the assistance of Cosgrave. She does have a bit to find at the weights but I still think she will be ultra competitive today and I would be very surprised if she doesn't go close. (2nd)

12:40 Newmarket - WINTER SONG (4/1) - 3pt Win (Info) - No secret that the yard target this race and the word received for this horse this morning was extremely positive. The yard is definitely winding down but they still have a few winners left in them and providing that this one handles the ground, it should be winning this race. (1st)

Further selections will be posted around lunch time.

Breeders Cup - The Lasix Debate

So the day has finally arrived and we see the start of the Breeders Cup in Santa Anita. This years renewal is especially interesting as the racing authorities have taken the controversial decision to ban Lasix amongst the juvenile ranks which has led many American trainers to boycott the meeting. The question which the average punter needs to be asking themselves is how this will effect the horses performance and will it tip the scales in favour of the European raiders.

For those who aren't familiar with Lasix it is a drug administered prior to the race to prevent bleeding in the horses lungs. It has been legal in American racing since the 1970's and has been employed to great effect by the majority of the racing elite. In order to understand the reasoning behind it's use a punter needs to understand what causes a horse to bleed and I'm going to try and explain it in simple terms.

A horses body is dividend into two half's (front and the back) separated by a thin diaphragm. The front half contains the animals vital organs such as his heart and lungs, while the back half contains his intestines which are suspended from the chest cavity via sensory ligaments.When the Diaphragm contracts it has the effect of increasing the area of the chest cavity which allows the horse to draw air into its lungs. When running this activity is synchronised so that the horse inhales when his front feet hit the ground and exhales when they leave the ground. This design on the whole works perfectly but the problem with bleeding and breathing is in fact caused in the back section of the horse by the suspended intestines and the reason for this is as follows. During a strenuous fast gallop, the horse's intestines will begin to swing like a pendulum and in some cases they will move out of synch with the perpetual motion of the horses. When this happens the intestines will begin to bash against the  diaphragm and the diaphragm will subsequently push the lungs into the chest wall causing the fine capillaries at the bottom of the lungs to rupture. When the capillaries rupture blood will begin to fill the lungs and the horse will immediately struggle to breath. Although Lasix will not prevent the diaphragm from coming into contact with the lungs, it does lower the horses blood pressure which prevents the capillaries from significant bleeding when ruptured. This in turn will prevent the horse from experiencing breathing problems mid race.

So now that we understand the reason for a horse bleeding, we have to attempt to analyse whether the ban on Lasix will effect the performance of the American Juveniles in this years Breeders Cup and in my opinion it is a resounding YES!

It is a well established fact that American thoroughbreds suffer from breathing problems due to weakness in their bloodlines. There are also external factors which add to the problem such as heat, dust, firm tracks and a racing schedule which favours sprint disciplines over middle distance racing. With this in mind it seems prudent to believe that the first two juveniles races on today's card (Juvenile Sprint and the Juvenile Fillies) could be the scenes of racing upsets as all of the American entries are coming of Lasix for the first time. Although numerous trainers have come out and stated that they believe that their runners will cope with the withdrawal, I have serious reservations, especially as every single one of those horses will be approximately 20lb higher than their previous run due to the urinal discharge associated with the drug. With that in mind I believe it may well pay to side with the European raiders in both races, although the fact that the Juvenille sprint is run on the specialist dirt track may just put and end to CEILING KITTY chances of actually winning the race.

Another point to note is that Godolphin's American operation has been against the use of the drug for a number of years and therefore their runners will not be effected by the ban. With that in mind FORTIFY may prove to be a real danger in the Grey Goose Breeders Juvenile tomorrow evening.

So that concludes my run down of the Lasix debate at this years Breeders Cup and my advice to all punters is to think twice before backing a horse who's running without it for the first time, especially in sprint races.Obviously the Breeders offers so much more than just Juvenile races and I will be covering the majority of the races and providing my selections over the next few hours as we lead up to the curtain call.

INFO

Jaunty Journey (9/2) - 3pt win - if the word is to believe then a big run is expected from this horse today

Today's Selections

Today's selections will be a mix of flat and NH horses. I will warn my readers now though that there is a lot of guess work going on here as all 3 selections have been picked purely on the basis of their pedigrees/trainers records as there is little else to go on in the way of past form (Prince is Truth excluded). With that in mind there is every chance that the horses in question may need the run or that they are being preserved with future races in mind and for that reason all of today's selections will be e/w bets. Hopefully a few of them will be strong in the market over the next few hours because at the moment I'm slightly nervous about today's picks but I do love bloodstock analysis and hopefully my homework will pay off.

12:50 Lingfield - Fusion (6/1) - 1pt e/w

1:20 Lingfield - World Map (6/1) - 1pt e/w

1:50 Lingfield - Price is Truth (9/2) - 1pt e/w

4:25 Clonmel - Young Lady (16/1) - 1pt e/w

Info

4:00 Punchestown - Bridgequarter Girl (8/1) -1pt e/w - Thought to be capable of making the most of the weight advantage here and has been showing up well at home. Having examined the race in great detail it looks like a difficult race to call and for that reason I have chosen to back the horse e/w. I will also be having a side bet - Bridgequarter and Ourbeautifuldream 0.50pt Reverse Forecast. One thing is certain though, I definitely don't fancy the chances of the favourite but there are at least 3 horses in the race that could take home the prize (Lughnasa) and therefore despite receiving a strong word for Bridgequarter, I would advise readers to proceed with caution.

2:50 Haydock

Oscar O'scar (40/1) - 1pt e/w - not the info bet promised earlier but I think this one may just have a chance of running into a place.

1:15 Punchestown

Buckers Bridge (11/8) -3pt win - Horse from my to follow list this season which I missed earlier.

Today's Selection

Sorry for the late post time today, it's been a busy morning and to be honest today's racing is pretty uninspiring. With that in mind I will only be posting one bet today although I am waiting on confirmation of an info horse later on this afternoon which will be posted up around 3pm if I get the green light.

2:55 Punchestown - Ravensbury (5/1) - 1pt e/w & 3pt win

Today's Selections (Day 113)

Very little catches my eye today and with the poor weather continuing to reap havoc on the racing schedule, I will be proceeding with caution.

4:00 Taunton - Eastlake (20/1) - 1pt e/w - I've heard a few rumours circulating about this horse today and although I usually ignore any info which emulates from this particular yard, this horse does have the profile of a potential JP job lot. You only have to take a quick look at that horse's profile to see that he may have been the subject of a spot of handicap manipulation. Between October 2010 and May 2012 the horse won 5 races in 9 attempts and his record over 16-17f during that time was 5 from 6. In June Jonjo stepped the horse up in trip and needless to say his performance ratings dropped significantly. He hasn't won a race since. Today he drops back to his preferred trip for the first time since May and although his current mark had looked beyond him over 2m 4f+, I believe that he has the potential to be improve over today's trip and therefore the whispers doing the rounds may well prove to be correct. Very interesting to see how the horse performs in the market over the next few hours.

4:30 Taunton - Uruba D'Irlande (9/4) - 3pt win - Now I have to admit that I don't know an awful lot about how this horse has been working at home since joining the Nicholls yard but I do know everything about his pedigree and I also know that his performance in a PTP a few months ago was very impressive and that the turn of foot and cruising speed he demonstrated really caught the eye of a few PTP experts.

When you explore the horse's pedigree you quickly realise that he has the potential to be a very precocious animal. His Dam is out of Pistolet Bleu, was a listed performer as a 3yo and is also related to some very smart NH horses including; Pique Sous, Pancake and Laveroque. The horse's Sire isn't too prolific in this country but he excels in France and he's a Sire which Nicholls well as he's trained a couple of his top progeny.

For me there is no doubt that this horse has what it takes to be very smart over today's trip and with an abundance of bumper winners in his pedigree he should have more than enough tactical speed to get competitive. I obviously have a degree of respect for the Hobbs horse, especially as he's being heavily supported but stamina has to be a real issue for him and I just feel that Uruba has a more rounded NH pedigree.


4:40 Wolverhampton - Horsted Keynes (3/1) - 3pt win - A horse who featured in my 2yo diary for this season and I've had to wait until now to see him run. His pedigree is incredibly impressive and his dosage rating extremely high. His trainer has a stunning record at the track and although the presence of Jamie Spencer makes me neverous, I think the horse is more than capable of making a winning debut. Side Bet- 0.50 Reverse Forecast - Horsted and Midnight Warrior. 

Info

1:20 Leicester - Ningbo Express (11/1) - 1pt e/w - Apparently holds strong place claims and has been working well at home. Should handle the ground and JP heads to the meeting for just the one ride on the horse which is part owned by a family member.

Today's Selections (Day 112)

1:30 Bangor - Tidal Way (2/1) - 3pt win - This horse ran a race full of promise on his hurdling debut and was only beaten by Spanish Fork who had hurdling experience. The horse was a bit sloppy at some of his jumps that day but I expect his connection to have ironed out the creases since that run and he should be more polished today. He takes on a few horses today who were inferior to him on the flat and Longsdon has a stunning record with his hurdlers at the welsh course. All things considered I think the McCain horse is the one to beat but if Tidal can improve from his last run, then he should go close.

2:30 Bangor - Mount Hope (3/1) - 3pt win - Not a particularly strong race and once again McCain looks to have a very strong chance of winning it with Mount Hope. I doubt anything in this race will turn out to be a superstar but Mount Hope won his bumper in fine style and looked to have the makes of a nice handicapper.  He's related to Brady who is also in training at the yard and his Dam's sire is prolific in NH breeding. I know very little about his Sire but with a solid NH bloodline on his Dam's side I would be surprised if he wasn't capable of winning an average maiden. My only slight concern would be whether he would handle the ground but his bumper win did come in soft conditions so hopefully he will be ok.

3:30 Bangor - Investissement (8/1) -1pt e/w - A race in which Jonjo's favourite is extremely short considering he's never run competitively over hurdles and if there is one yard that I'm happy to oppose a fav from, it's this one. Investissement was a smart horse on the flat and at his peak won a Class 2 event off a mark of 95. He moved to the Pipe yard this year and made his reappearance following 426 day absence in a  Novice event at Fakenham. He went off towards the head of the market that day but was eased round the course and was never put in a position to really get competitive. Now it may well be that this horse is being played for a handicap mark, in which case this bet has no prospect of being successful but I just have a feeling that we may see a much better performance today and although he may not win, I expect Tom to at least ensure that he's competitive.

4:30 Bangor - Clondaw Draft (3/1) - 3pt win - I said last week that the Clondaw horses are to be followed this season and my winner yesterday proved that comment to be correct as Clondaw Kaempfer won in fine style. Today it's the turn on Clondaw Draft and he has the pedigree of a really nice horse being out of a sire who is really on the up and up. For me CD has more than enough potential to win a weak bumper such as this and I expect him to be competitive first time out as the McCain horse's usually are. He's not the strongest of the Clondaw group but I'm sure he will be a nice type and the current price is definitely attractive. Side Bet - 0.50pt Reverse Forecast - Clondaw and What A Good Night.



From now on horses from my to follow list this season will be highlighted in Red.

Today's Selections

1:10 Aintree - Vendor (6/4)  - 3pt win (PU)

2:50 Aintree - Lovcen (10/3) - 3pt win (UP)

4:00 Aintree - Clondaw Kaempfer (10/11) - 3pt win (1st - very impressive)

4:35 Aintree - Broadway Buffalo (2/1) - 3pt win (1st - SP 7/2)

4:35  Aintree - Ghost of a Smile (20/1) - 1pt e/w (UP)

All 5 selections are from my horse to follow list and I'm really looking forward to seeing Clondaw and Vendor perform.

Flat Selections

4:10 Doncaster - Lucky Beggar (12/1) - 1pt e/w

5:20 Doncaster - Fortrose Academy (5/1) - 3pt win

Today's Jump Selections

2:05 Chepstow- Big Society (9/2) - 1pt e/w

3:10 Chepstow - Master Zhurkov (9/2) - 1pt e/w

3:30 Aintree - Wishful Thinking (8/1) -1pt e/w

3:40 Chepstow - Mulligans Man (6/1) - 1pt e/w

4:15 Chepstow

Salubrious (11/4 BOG) - 6pt Max Bet - Not sure how much time I'm going to get tomorrow so i'm posting my main selection up early just in case. Horse has been tee'd up for this race and is apparently due to be the subject of a large punt tomorrow afternoon.

INFO

1:50 Newbury - Absolutely So (5/1) - 3pt win - Same source that gave me Race and Status a few weeks ago who won at 16/1 on debut. Horse has been working incredibly well at home with the other horses owned by Mr and Mrs Smith and with the horses with experience looking weak, this is a great opportunity for the horse to get a win under his belt before the winter break. (2nd - SP 11/4) 

Today's Selections

Another frustrating day yesterday as 2 of my selections finished 2nd while 2 horses I highlighted, including 1 from my horses to follow list, won in fine style. Today is a new day though and with a bit of luck those placed horses which I keep finding will be good enough to get their heads in front. Unfortunately due to time constraints I won't have time for detailed write up's today but rest assured that the normal level of research and study has gone into picking each selection.

1:40 Doncaster - Singersongwriter (5/1) - 1pt e/w - I've heard a lot about this horse and have been eagerly anticipating its debut. Although she faces the boys today and I believe that she may just have what it takes but a lot will depend on how the Bell runner performs (ALGORITHMIC) because he could literally be anything. (1st - won in fine style and looks smart)

2:30 Fakenham - Tour D' Argent (13/8) - 3pt win - Difficult race this as it features three horses from my to follow list (Tour, No Panic and Cross of Honour). I spent a long time looking through their respective chances last night and in the end all roads led back to Tour. I'm obviously concerned that he was a faller LTO and jumped through a few of his fences, but I'm hoping that run won't have had a serious effect on his confidence and he definitely has the necessary skills required to have a successful chasing campaign this season. (Fell - had every chance coming over the last - No Panic 1st and Cross of Honour 2nd)


3:05 Fakenham - Vulcanite (7/4) - NO BET - This horse feature prominently in my to follow list this season but I have a few doubts about him today and for that reason I won't be having a bet. Punters should be asking themselves why he's such a big price in what looks like a race filled with average handicappers. One for another day in my opinion. (1st - Definitely regretting not backing this one but another winner from my to follow list)


3:40 Fakenham - Court By Surprise (8/1) - 1pt e/w - I was sure that this horse was going to develop into a nice type last year but for one reason or another he never really found his feet. It later came to light that he had been suffering from breathing issues and he's subsequently had a wind opp over the summer.  Now, this is a bet not for the faint hearted as there is every chance that the horse will still be below par and will be confined to middle of the park handicaps for the rest of his career. However, if the wind op has the desired effect they I think we may see significant improvement from him today. (3rd - Not entirely convinced he want's 3m but it was a good effort from the front and I'm happy with the e/w return)


4:15 Fakenham - Close Touch (4/6) - 6pt Max Win - Without doubt this one is max bet material and if you believe the rumours doing the rounds then this horse is potentially very, very smart. (1st - Put this horse in you racing diaries because he has a massive future. Very, very impressive performance!)

Today Selections

3:25 Carlisle - De Bee Keeper (4/1) - 1pt e/w - Lucinda Russell has always targeted this early season meeting and this looks like the type of horse who has been played perfectly for this race. In April the horse race in a good look PTP race, finishing 3rd. The two horses in front of him that day both sold for significant money at the subsequent sales and the general feeling is that the race should work out quite well. De Bee Keeper was purchased for 80,000 euros and was the subject of a considerable amount of praise during one of Lucinda's recent stable tours. The plan was always to run the horse in a bumper on debut and he performed with credit on his reappearance and was not pushed for an effort at any time during the race. He turns out today in what looks to be ideal conditions and the jockey's 10lb claim can only help his cause and in my opinion Craig Nichol has plenty of raw talent. Usually this would be the type of horse which I would be backing to win but BIT OF A JIG is a horse that features in my horses to follow list and for that reason I decided to stick with the e/w bet rather than the win.


3:55 Carlisle - Vamizi (11/4) - 3pt win - This horse was very nearly a max bet today as I know that this particular race has been on the horses schedule for a considerable amount of time and his track record is impeccable. Vamizi is a horse which has always thrived in bad conditions and his stride pattern and the nature of his action mean that the course at Carlisle is perfect for him. For a class 3 race the opposition do not look particularly strong and I would be very surprised if anything in the field could beat him if he puts in a clean round of jumping.


5:00 Carlisle - Super Duty (4/5) - 3pt win - For me this is a two horse race between my selection and his old foe Nuts and Bolts and although it was difficult to choose between the two, I just feel that the drop back in drip will be too much for Nuts and Bolts when faced with Super Duty's speed. There is no doubt the Super Duty is a very smart and progressive individual, he campaign last season was extremely promising and his second placed finish behind Simonsig is impressive form in the context of this race. Having read plenty of reports about SD over the last few months it's safe to say that McCain has high hopes for this horse and a race at today's track has always been the plan as the nature of the course seems to suit him, as was evident when he destroyed his opposition on his second career start almost a year to the day ago. I know for some readers that backing an odds on shot coming back from a break isn't the most appealing betting proposition but I honestly believe that he will be a cut above his opposition today. Those looking for an e/w alternative should definitely take a close look at Nuts and Bolts.


5:30 Carlisle - Clondaw Flika (5/1) - 1pt e/w - For those readers that aren't familiar with PTP racing, I suggest that you remember the name CLONDAW this season as there are a number of very promising types who were purchased out of the Colin Bowe yard in the spring and all share the same first name. Clondaw Flika was the cheapest of them at £40,000 but I still think he will be extremely competitive today. Having read the reports of his debut PTP race back in April, it's safe to say that this horse is an imposing type with a strong galloping action. Although his pedigree doesn't exactly leap off the page when you analyse it, I'm a fan of his Sire's bloodstock and he's produced plenty of NH winners from a limited number of opportunities and they all seem to relish soft conditions.

When you analyse today's race as a hole it looks pretty weak, the Easterby horse has a reasonable NH pedigree but the trainers terrible record in races of this type would definitely put me off, even with McCoy booked to ride. Taxi Des Obeaux probably deserves to win a race after two valiant performances in bumpers this season but he has the profile of a horse who maybe found wanting at the business end of a race and although McGrath has a good strike rate for the trainer, he doesn't to be a particularly appealing betting proposition. Finally, you have the McCain horse, BALTIMORE and I have to admit that it was a very close call between him and Clondaw Flika. He's a well built gelding out of Flemensfirth and his Dam (Glenflag Princess) has already proven herself capable of producing winners. The horse won on its PTP debut in an average looking race over 2m 4f but the form doesn't look particularly strong as the second placed horse (now with Elliot) looks average and the third placed horse was beaten when falling in the race won by Clondaw Flika.

Now I have to admit that there is every chance that Baltimore will have a quicker turn of foot that Clondaw as he's related to a bumper winner and his Sire's progeny usually excel over 2m-2m 3f but I just have a feeling that Clondaw could potentially have the ability to gallop his opposition into the ground today and there is no doubt that the stiff up hill finish will really bring his stamina into play today.
Side Bet - 0.50pt Reverse Forecast - Clondaw Flika and Baltimore (1pt total stake) 

No Truth

MISSING WRITE UP

This has all the making of a nice looking maiden and usually I would never back a filly in a mixed sex maiden but this horse has apparently been working well at home, has a tremendous pedigree and is from a bloodline which the yard are all too familiar with. This one could definitely out run her odds and although a win might be optimistic, I'm hopeful she will place. 

Westward Point

That will teach me to ignore horse's from my to follow list!  Having drifted out to 16/1 the horse made all to win and that's a horse which I really should have backed because I knew it was a weak bumper and I knew the horse had what it takes to win. I'm hoping that a few readers may have seen that I'd highlighted him in my earlier post today and had a little e/w punt but I wasn't so luckily!

Today's Bets

Having some Internet problems today so I'm having to use my phone but hopefully it will be fixed soon and I can post my detailed write ups for today. In the meantime here are today's advised bets

1:40 Worcester - Seven Woods (3/1) - 3pt win - (3rd)

3:40 Newmarket - No Truth (18/1) - 1pt ew - (UP)

4:00 Fontwell - Easter Day (7/4) -3pt win - (1st - SP 9/4)

4:20 Worcester - Ballingbrigs (5/1) - 1pt ew - (UP)

5:30 Fontwell - Royal Present (11/4) - 3pt win - (2nd)

Today's Results

One of those day's when I'm left reminiscing about what could have been a truly fantastic day. It's very hard to complain when you land 2 winning bets and a CSF but with my other 3 selections all finishing second by short distances, it could have been something a bit special.

Results

2:40 - Melodic Rendezvous (6/4) - 3pt win - 2nd

3:10 - Bold Henry (3/1) - 3pt win - 2nd

4:40 - Rocky Creek (6/5 - 6pt win - 2nd

4:35 - Expanding Universe (2/1) - 3pt win - 1st 
          Curley Bill - 2nd - CSF £6.97

5:10 - Grande Le Victoire (13/8) - 3pt win - 1st (SP 7/2) - Thank God for BOG

2:40 Exeter

Melodic Rendezvous -6/5 - 3pt win - quite simply the price is now very appealing and I'm choosing to ignore the drift and have a punt. I have earmarked this horse as a very smart prospect and he should be competitive today and in my opinion 6/5 looks huge!

Today's Selections

Sticking to the jumps meetings again today and the card at Exeter really is top notch and should give us an indication of what's to come later in the year. At the start of every NH Season I compose my list of horses to follow and today sees no fewer than 8 competing at Exeter; Bold Henry, Johns Spirit, Module, Pantoxa, Rebel Rebelion, Melodic Rendezvous, Gullinbursti and Rocky Creek. Obviously I can't back them all, especially as 4 line up in the same race, but I will be backing one or two.

3:10 Exeter - Bold Henry (3/1) - 3pt win - I have to say that I'm slightly surprised to see that this horse has been sent over fences straight away as it was my understanding that he would have a few hurdles entries to refresh him. He has always been viewed as a potentially smart chaser and the fact that Hobbs has taken the decision to throw him straight into a race like this suggests to me that he has been showing up very well at home. As Henry is owed by JP it is no surprise to see McCoy take the ride but the weight of early money for the horse on the exchanges is obviously interesting given his connections especially when you consider the strength of the race. He has previous course experience and is perfectly comfortable in a variety of conditions and with the yard already in fine form, I think this horse will take a world of beating today.


4:35 Tipperary - Expanding Universe (2/1) - 3pt win - If bumper racing was all about breeding then this horse would be winning this race by a country mile. This gelding is out of Galileo and a Darshaan mare and is actually bred to be pretty smart on the flat. Over the years we have seen Weld excel with horses of this type and I have a feeling that this one may have a smart future in front of him. To date he has only seen on the race course once and performed with credit in a NHF race over 2m 4f (finished 4th). He looked to be in need of the run that day and there was no doubt that his stamina was stretched slightly by the trip. Weld has taken the decision to drop him back to 2 miles today and with the early pace in the race sure to be slow, this horse's turn of foot could have the rest of the field treading water. Once again my money maker R P heads to the meeting just for one ride and with the only real danger looking to be the Meade horse, I expect it to be another successful day for him and the effervescent Weld. Side Bet = 0.50pt Reverse Forecast - Expanding Universe and Curley Bill (Total Stake 1pt) 


4:40 Exeter - Rocky Creek (6/5) - 6pt Max Bet - Now this is probably a brave decision on my part as this does look like a nice little race but this horse has been the subject of some extremely positive reports and is considered to be a real live contender for some big festival meetings this year. As a winning pointer he has always been considered to be a chasing prospect but still performed with great credit over hurdles last year. His best performance came in the Albert Bartlett Novices when he  readily fended off Gullinbursti to win the race in fine style. That form of that event looks rock solid and I can see very few negatives in this horses profile as far as backing him in today's race is concerned. As we roll into November the Nicholls yard is about to explode into action and I have no doubt that this one will be fully wound up for today's race.

5:10 Exeter - Grande Le Victoire (13/8) - 3pt win - Not the greatest of bumpers and it should prove to be a formality for Grande. Although he is unlikely to be anything above average in the long run, his pedigree is superior to the majority of his opposition and his Sire, Kapgrande, may just be one to watch out for over then next few months as his stock appears to be on the rise. I don't know too much about his Dam's family but my general feeling is that it should be ok and with Hobb's targeting bumpers to good effect, I would expect this one to win with ease under Johnson.

4:05 Tipperary

Moscow Chief (4/1) - 1pt e/w & 0.50pt Reverse Forecast with Stage King (Total RF stake =1pt)

Result = 1st Moscow Chief - SP 5/1)
Stage King - 3rd

Today's Selection

Today's cards are very poor and the weather is sure to play a major part in how things pan out. With that in mind I will only be having one bet today and it's on the advice of a primary info source.

5:10 Plumpton - Hannibal the Great (2/1) - 6pt Max Win - Prior to moving to the Longsdon yard this horse had been brought to my attention by a PTP expert in Ireland. This Milan gelding had run in a PTP race at Liscarroll back in March and dead heated for first place with a horse called Mcllhatton. Mcllhatton has subsequently moved to the Nicholls yard for £62,000 and ran well in a bumper at Chepstow earlier this month (finished 3rd at 9/2). The favourite in that PTP race back in March was a horse called First to Boogie who is thought to be a very exciting prospect and went off at the head of the market in a top bumper at Punchestown back in April after moving to the Mullin's yard (finished 6th). The general feeling among the PTP form experts is that the race won by Hannibal represents rock solid form and at the time the horse was highlighted as a potentially smart individual.  Following that win the horse went off the radar and it wasn't until a few months ago that his name popped up again when I was approached to buy a share in the horse as part of a syndicate scheme. I declined on that occasion but I was informed that the horse had been working extremely well at home and was showing a high degree of promise in comparison to some of the yards other bumper recruits. Obviously this led me to dive deeper into the horses background and analyse his pedigree and I have to say that I was very impressed with what I found.

Firstly, the horse is by Milan who is a Sire who over the years has proven to be a decent duel purpose creator. His progeny are usually versatile as far as ground is concerned and win over a variety of trips ranging from 2m - 3m 2f. To date he is yet to really excel at the highest level but season on season his stock seems to be improving and so far this year he has recorded 111 wins from 704 runs. The horse's Dam is Town Gossip who was an average duel performer out of Indian Ridge but she is related to some very nice NH horses including;  Montalicino (OR 143 - Grade 2 hurdle winners) and Meadow Vale (Smart duel bumper winner). To date Town Gossip has produced one foal (Mostly Bob) who holds a current OR of 130, is well above average and also won a bumper on debut for Willie Mullins at the start of his career. As far as I am concerned Hannibal has the profile of a smart Nation Hunt performer and he should also have the pace required to win a low grade bumper with minimal fuss. The fact that the horse has joined the Longsdon yard also adds confidence to my selection as the horse matches the profile of horse which the yard seem to be target and Charlie is definitely a trainer who is destined to go on to bigger and better things this season.  In light of the horse's pedigree, his PTP form and the positive reports received from the yard, I have taken the decision to Max Bet this horse and although the current form of the stable is a concern, I think the horse should have more than enough to win and the only real danger I can see is Mixologist. Side Bet = 0.50pt Reverse Forecast Hannibal and Mixologist (total 1pt stake). 


Result - Hannibal the Great - 1st (SP 7/2) 
              Mixotogist - 2nd (SP 2/1) 
              CSF - £11.57