4:45 Wolves

As you all know I received some info for the Botti runner (Travelling) in this race earlier today and had a small win bet. I have had along hard look at the race now though and I personally think that MOODY DANCER (20/1) is massively over priced.

The horse holds an entry in the Tattersalls Millions (run over 1m 2f) and steps up in trip today for the first time. The horse was very highly tried as a 2yo but showed very little in some hotbed maidens and was subsequently awarded a mark of 65. She put in a disappointing performance on her first race this season but she was entitled to need the run and that should have brushed away any cobwebs for today's race.

On the basis of her pedigree she should be capable of getting 1m 2f as she is out of Cape Cross and his progeny have a strong record over middle distances. In the last 3 years this sire also shows some very impressive stats on the AW.

RACE DISTANCE = 30 runs, 5 wins. 4 places (17%)
HORSE AGE = 159 runs, 33 wins, 39 places (21%)
COURSE = 121 runs, 23 wins, 28 places (19%)

The only Sire presented in the field today with better overall figures than Cape Cross from the same sample is HOLY ROMAN EMPEROR (Silvas Romana).

The trainer's record also adds another dimension to the horses profile. William Muir is a better than average trainer on the AW and has operated at a 14% strike rate (P/L +68) in the last 5 seasons at Wolves. In races over distances between 9-10f with 3yo runners on the AW his record is enhanced, as he currently holds an 18% strike rate with his runners in this discipline. Furthermore, 37% of all of the trainers winners have been ridden by today's jockey (Martin Dwyer) who heads to the meeting for two rides.

The final matter to take into account is the horse's performance in the market. Although 20/1 is available with some firms the majority have aired on the side of caution and are offering around 12/1. The horse has also come in for some money on the exchanges and is now available at around 18/1 but was previously being backed at prices as high as 30/1+. There has also been a move on the place betting which has seen the horse shorten from prices as high as 8/1 into approximately 3/1-4/1 now.

All things considered I believe that this horse represents a good value e/w bet at the current prices and I will be having a 1pt e/w bet together with a CST with Travelling and Silver Marizah. Obviously there are some fancied runners in the race but I wouldn't be surprised if this horse has slipped under the radar and I will be very intrigued to see how she performs in the next few hours.