Starting Bank = 516pts - 1pt =£10 but people can use whatever denomination fits there financial position
2:05 Curragh - Tannery (7/1) - 3pts e/w - Now I have always been a major fan of dosage ratings and this race throws up some interesting stats when you look at the blood line indicators of the previous winners. It is evident from close examination of the ratings that speed is important as is a balanced pedigree. Now the fav has been all the rage this morning but no winner or placed runner in this race for the last 5 years has had a rating less then 16 and the majority have been in the high 20's. Crius has a rating of just 10 and his pedigree is too heavily weighted towards stamina to be winning this race. For that reason it was necessary to look for an alternative and the two which immediately leaped of the page were Tannery and Soon, it was a close call between the two but Tannery has positive form against the O'Brien runner and for that reason he was my ew selection. I will be having a 1pt RF with Soon as well though just in case.
3:40 Curragh - La Colina (5/1) - 5pt win - All Homecoming Queens win in the Guineas was impressive I'm not convinced that she can do it again on good ground and I just feel that La Colina is much better value and after meeting a bit of trouble in running LTO she may well get the prize she deserves this season.
2:45 Kelso - Carters Rest (9/2) - 3pt win - I got on this horse early this morning and it has subsequently come in for a bit of support. In my opinion it should be a straight race between Carter and Beidh and I'm hopeful that mine will come out on top but if the Macain horse settles in the early stages then I suggest that everyone looks to back him in running because the horse has showed promise on numerous occasions but his chances have been destroyed by being too keen early on.
3:50 Kelso - Rockability (11/2) - 2pt win - only info horse for the day and apparently it should go very close, only time will tell.
Total Stake = 20pts
(Points total includes 1pt e/w double on the Curragh Selections)
Tannery is unfortunately now a non-runner so the 6pts has been returned. I will now be having 1pt e/w on Absolute Crackers at 16/1.
ReplyDelete"dosage ratings and this race throws up some interesting stats when you look at the blood line indicators of the previous winners."
ReplyDeleteVery interesting this - I've never heard of it.
As a matter of interest - what is the rating for - Speaking Of Which ?
The average dosage rating of the last 5 winners was;
ReplyDelete5-3-18-4-2 (32) - 1.32 - 0.15
Speaking of Witch dosage = 10-5-13-0-0 (28) - 3.31 - 0.89
SOW's overall dosage rating definitely gave him a chance but the lack of a stamina base in his pedigree was interesting and I would have thought that the time of the race will probably prove to be slow enough. Soon was the clear leader on my dosage ratings following the withdrawal of Tannery and his 2nd place finish was a pleasing effort.
Yeah - Had Soon e/w based on your write up, always good to read the thought process that picks are based on - always learn something new.
ReplyDelete