Some good looking racing today and I will be doing two separate threads for my flat and NH selections. Together with my own personal selections, I have an Info horse at Chester and Ffos Las and a Top Tip from my man at Punchestown.
Today's Flat Meeting Selections
1:35 Chester - BADDILINI (8/1) - 2.0pts e/w - Now I may be beaten by the dreaded draw factor at Chester but I think this horse is over priced on what he has achieved so far. The trainer openly stated at the start of the season that this is a race which he wants to win and therefore one can assume that Baddilini has been trained specifically with this race in mind. Bailey books Ryan Moore for the ride which is a pretty rare thing and when he does get the leg up he usually wins (43% strike rate, 50% on 2yo's). For me the horse has the best form in the book and looks a better horse than most of the horses drawn inside him. Obviously Moore will have to give the horse a very good ride to win from a wide berth, but we all know he's capable of doing that. I also believe that the Johnston horse is overpriced considering how talented his Dam was and I will be having a 0.50pt RF with him and my selection. Lets just hope the draw doesn't defeat me.
2:05 Chester - BETTERBETTERBETTER (2/1) - 10pt win - For me this is probably the stand out bet on the Chester card today, the horse really caught the eye on her debut at Leopardstown finishing 4th in a maiden which should throw out a few winners in the next few months. O'Brien has a stunning record in the race and the market has spoken in his favour with Lads going 7/4 at the moment. All in all it looks like a good bet and I would be surprised if this horse didn't go close. For those looking for a tasty e/w bet the Hill's runner SAFARJAL is thought to have solid place claims but I have had my fingers burnt one too many times by this filly already.
2:35 Chester - NEVER CAN TELL (10/1) - 1.50pts e/w - Obviously this is a wide open race and is not a great betting prospect but this horse despite looking to be a second string for the owner, seems to meet the majority of the key trends. The only question mark for me would be whether he will handle the ground, but he's out of Montjeu so hopefully he will. I will also be having 1pt e/w on BARBICAN (25/1) who has apparently been working well and after running no kind of race LTO I have a feeling that we may see a better performance today.
Chester Info Selections
3:05 - CONFESSIONAL (5/1) - Interesting message received for this horse from a yard which seems to be finding a bit of form again. It is obviously a very competitive race and the price doesn't look that attractive from an e/w perspective so I will be having a small 2pt bet on the win.
3:40 - STAR FOR LIFE (25/1) - 1pt e/w - Now the Hill's horse Linkable is strongly fancied to run well in this race but the ground is a bit of an unknown and therefore 5-6/1 looks a bit short to me. My guy did however inform me that better things are expected from the Magnusson horse and the booking of Moore would seem to suggest that there is some substance to the info. The horse still holds a derby entry, is well drawn and it wouldn't be the first time that a horse from this stable showed significant improvement on its second run. Very interesting little runner and definitely worth a small e/w bet.
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AW Selections
2:25 Southwell - MARY'S PET (5/1) - No Bet - This horse immediately caught my eye last night when I was looking through the card mainly due to the fact that he is a front runner who at no point in his last 4-5 races has been put in any kind of position to win a race. He came in for a bit of money this morning and is definitely a very interesting runner for what is a small yard who know how to back a winner. I won't be backing the horse as it looks like a wide open race, but I will definitely be watching with interest and if this one hits the front early, I may have a bet in running.
4:35 Southwell - WICKED SPIRIT (11/8 BOG) - 10pt win - This horse is a penalty system qualifier having won on his debut for the yard LTO in a Class 5 event at Wolves. She carries a 6lb penalty today which is all but negated by the presence of a claimer and in today's small field she should be able to dominate proceedings, stay out of the kickback and win the race. She currently holds entries in much better races than this and with the majority of her competition looking exposed I believe this horse should record he second win today. (NAP)
9:00 Kempton - PERFECT FANTASY (8/1) - 3pts e/w - This horse looks massively overpriced when you consider how well his maiden win has worked out. Between the 7 horses that raced that day they have run a further 14 times, winning 4 and placing in 3 to record a P/L of +16.25. The second horse home in that maiden was Heartsong who now holds an OR of 85, so Perfect Fantasy mark of 72 looks very lenient. The horse is well breed, is from a good stable, has a good jockey on board and should go very close to winning this race at a very generous price.
Strange and frustrating day so far. Betterbetterbetter got pipped on the line, Never can Tell ran a terrible race, my info selection Confessional won in fine fashion and my selection in the 2:25 (which I didn't back) cruised to victory. What a nightmare!
ReplyDeleteYou've had an extremely unlucky couple of days,while making good piks most of the time. The short priced lump ons have hurt because the each way bets have been very good, again lots of seconds has just been unlucky. Keep the head up and keep faith with your methods and stick to your gus. If it is good enough it will win out in the end. You're still in profit over the week and half unlike mst punters I reckon.
ReplyDeleteDaniel