Today's Selections (10.05.12)

Today's racing has already been decimated by the weather and although I have found a few nice prospects I will be reducing my stakes as I have a feeling that we will see a few upsets today.

1:35 Chester- CALL TO REASON (10pt stake) - See earlier thread - There are now no fewer than 4 non runners in the race which is very disappointing but in some respects in makes me more confident about my selection as she now looks like 1 of only 2 runners in the field who will really appreciate the soft ground. Obviously my bets from last night will now be subject to reductions but at least betfair will still be paying out on 3 places.

2:05 Chester- GLEN'S DIAMOND - 3pt E/W - Despite the small field this is a very difficult race to solve, Questioning is obviously running out of his skin at the moment and is horse on a serious upward curve but he had a very hard race in terrible conditions 13 days ago and I just feel that this race may come too soon. Similar comments can be made with regard to Wigmore Hall who is clearly the class act in the field on OR, but the ground has to be a major concern and I'm actually surprised that connections have left him in. So when you discard those two your left with three - four horses.

In my opinion Myplaceater may have a shout if he bounces back but backing him would be incredibly risky as he has shown nothing of any note in the last few months. The two Godolphin horse's should both be carefully considered but I have my reservations about the Suroor yard at the moment as the majority of their horses are definitely needing the run. Despite that, Hunters Light is a major danger in this field, as a Dubawi progeny he will love the ground and also stays a bit further than 1m 2f which will be helpful as he comes from a wide berth. Irrespective of the positives I can't be backing the horse at that kind of price as it just looks too short. The Botti newcomer is obviously very interesting, he had some reasonable form in Meydan, is proven on the ground, is well drawn and well supported but I have my reservations about the horse and if I'm honest I'm slightly surprised that Botti didn't book Demuro as he's in the country. On the basis of his pedigree MARCET will not want to go any further than 1m 2f and therefore in today's conditions I believe he may be vulnerable.

So that leaves GLEN'S DIAMOND and this highly thought of individual could prove to be the value bet in the race at a current price of 10/1. Firstly he is already a G3 winner, secondly he handles soft ground, thirdly he stays further than 1m 2f, Fourthly, he is well drawn and finally he is a CD winner. When you take all those factors into account, I can't see any reason why this horse is such a big price and to me the bookies may be looking at a substantial payout if this one does the business because you can bet your bottom dollar that the yard will be lumping on at that kind of price if he is ready to win again.

2:35 Chester - DAVID LIVINGSTONE (11/4) - 12pt win - This horse is probably my NAP of today and although Joseph lost me money on a shortie yesterday I don't think he will make the same mistake twice. DL is proven on soft/heavy ground and comes here in fine form despite finishing behind CALL TO BATTLE last time out at Leopardstown. The form of that race doesn't concern me as its clear from the replays that the horse was never really put in a position to win the race. When you consider that the trainer has taken the prize in this race three times in the last 5 years, it's probably fair to assume that this has been the horse's target for a while. Obviously its a very tight knit affair and I know that the Hill's yard fancy their horse, although they do have reservations about the ground, and MINIMIZE RISK was a horse from my horse's to follow list last year, so I have mixed feelings about opposing him but for me David Livingstone's preparation has been better and whereas Minimize, Model Pupil, Call to Battle & Mickdaam all had tough races less than 30 days ago, DL had nothing more than a gentle canter to the line and I believe that will be the difference today.

3:40 Chester - LUCKY BEGGAR (5/1) - 1 pt win - The Hill's yard really fancy this horse but the draw has significantly dampened their enthusiasm. They still believe that he may be good enough to over come it and for that reason I'm having a small win bet, but I believe it will be a seriously tough task.



INFO 


5:40 Clonmel - JACKSONSLADY (11/1) - 3pts e/w - This one comes from my usual source in Ireland and the advice was to back e/w as he has also heard that HE'LLBEREMEMBERED is quietly fancied. I've had a look at the race myself and irrespective of the info I would have been backing Jacksonslady and this looks to be a very strong e/w bet.