Received a phone call this afternoon about IBICENO in this race, although the Godolphin horse is bound to be difficult to beat this horse is thought to be very smart and should at the very least place. He is currently available at 10/1 on the exchanges and I have had 2pts on the win and 8 points on the place at 2/1.
Best of luck if you follow.
Thursday, 31 May 2012
Today's Selections
Two bad days in a row have put a dent in this months profit but its still early days and having sat down for a few hours last night I believe that I have found some very attractive bets for today at Ayr, Brighton and Ffos Las and I will be looking at the remainder of the cards throughout the days to see if there is anything that catches my eye. I also have an info horse lined up at Sandown later but will have to wait and see what the general consensus is from my man at the track before posting it up.
Starting Bank = 483.25
2:30 Brighton - Boston Blue (3/1) - 6pt win - this horse looks like a good looking bet to me, the horse hasn't really fired over hurdles but he is only 1lb higher that his last winning mark and both of his previous wins came on a good surface. He has competed 5 times in Class 5 company on the turf and has won twice which obviously bodes well as does the booking of Crowley. The Favourite should give a good account of himself but I think there may well be a few chinks in his armour and this one therefore looks like the more appealing of the two.
4:00 Ffos Las - Domino Dancer (4/1) - 5pt win - I actually backed this one on the exchanges at prices in excess of 5-6/1 but the horse has come in for plenty of early support and therefore I will be using the current price for P/L purposes. There are plenty of things to like about this horse; Daryl Jacob's takes the ride, he is a CD winner, likes good ground, ran well LTO after a break from the track in conditions which were far from ideal and he comes from a yard who do very well with their limited string. Obviously the 4/1 now available isn't quite as attractive as the price I got last night but its still good enough to have a punt and would also advise readers to have a close look at the a yards runner later on the card as well.
4:55 Ayr - Judicious (5/1) - 4pt win - For me this is the most intriguing runner of all today, the horse was the subject of a stewards enquiry a few runs back when the jockey was investigated for what was thought to be a suspect ride and the vet later examined the horse and found him to be lame. The horse then moved yard and was heavily punted next time out but could only finish 4th, he has now moved again to the Midgley yard and has once again been punted this morning (I got 6/1 on the exchanges last night). Its not just the background story that makes this horse of interest though, he has a very good record on good ground (3 wins from 4 rides all over today's distance) and also now hits his key rest period. One slight concern would be that the horse seems to have a better record going right handed but the majority of his runs on left handed tracks have been on undulating surfaces and I believe it may be this factor which has affected his performance rather that the course layout. All things considered, I like the look of this one and it will be very interesting to see how it runs.
Starting Bank = 483.25
2:30 Brighton - Boston Blue (3/1) - 6pt win - this horse looks like a good looking bet to me, the horse hasn't really fired over hurdles but he is only 1lb higher that his last winning mark and both of his previous wins came on a good surface. He has competed 5 times in Class 5 company on the turf and has won twice which obviously bodes well as does the booking of Crowley. The Favourite should give a good account of himself but I think there may well be a few chinks in his armour and this one therefore looks like the more appealing of the two.
4:00 Ffos Las - Domino Dancer (4/1) - 5pt win - I actually backed this one on the exchanges at prices in excess of 5-6/1 but the horse has come in for plenty of early support and therefore I will be using the current price for P/L purposes. There are plenty of things to like about this horse; Daryl Jacob's takes the ride, he is a CD winner, likes good ground, ran well LTO after a break from the track in conditions which were far from ideal and he comes from a yard who do very well with their limited string. Obviously the 4/1 now available isn't quite as attractive as the price I got last night but its still good enough to have a punt and would also advise readers to have a close look at the a yards runner later on the card as well.
4:55 Ayr - Judicious (5/1) - 4pt win - For me this is the most intriguing runner of all today, the horse was the subject of a stewards enquiry a few runs back when the jockey was investigated for what was thought to be a suspect ride and the vet later examined the horse and found him to be lame. The horse then moved yard and was heavily punted next time out but could only finish 4th, he has now moved again to the Midgley yard and has once again been punted this morning (I got 6/1 on the exchanges last night). Its not just the background story that makes this horse of interest though, he has a very good record on good ground (3 wins from 4 rides all over today's distance) and also now hits his key rest period. One slight concern would be that the horse seems to have a better record going right handed but the majority of his runs on left handed tracks have been on undulating surfaces and I believe it may be this factor which has affected his performance rather that the course layout. All things considered, I like the look of this one and it will be very interesting to see how it runs.
Wednesday, 30 May 2012
6:35
Rugosa is thought to have a strong chance but the word at the track is that the godolphin horse is gully expected to do the business and for that reason the advice was either to tale a short price on a place or going for a forecast bet. I have decided to give it a swerve though and I would suggest that my readers do as well.
Info
Diving back into the Hunter Chase market with an info selection from my PTP man. Horse is MISS MIDNIGHT and it runs in the 5:00 at Newton Abbot. The horse is currently priced up 4/1 and I had 5pts on the win. Still no word from the Hill's camp yet but should be posted up early evening.
Today's Selections
Well yesterday was the worst day I have had in a long time and although a few of my selections were unlucky I don't really have any excuses. Unfortunately I have been extremely busy analysing the upcoming Epsom card this morning so haven't had any time to really get stuck into today's racing. For that reason I will be posting a few selections up today but they will not be included for P/L purposes (other than Peaks of Fire) as I just don't have the time to give my selection process the time it requires.
2:20 Sedge - Peaks of Fire (Evens win) - 10pts
2:40 Ayr - Sunny Side Up (Evens Place) - *** Rating
3:40 Ayr - Amazing Amore (6/4 Place) - *** Rating
4:40 Ayr - Toshi (5/2 win) - *** Rating
6:15 Folkstone - Escape to Glory (3/1 win) - *** Rating
I apologise for the lack of advised stakes, but normal service will be resumed tomorrow and if you do decide to back any of my selections today, then I would suggest that you lower your stakes slightly. I will be getting a call from my Hill's man later this afternoon but I definitely won't be backing the short priced Fav (Safarjal) as he has let me down plenty of times before. Their other runner today looks to have his work cut out against the Godolphin horse but if the word for this one is positive then I may well have a punt as I know Rugosa was highly thought of last year.
2:20 Sedge - Peaks of Fire (Evens win) - 10pts
2:40 Ayr - Sunny Side Up (Evens Place) - *** Rating
3:40 Ayr - Amazing Amore (6/4 Place) - *** Rating
4:40 Ayr - Toshi (5/2 win) - *** Rating
6:15 Folkstone - Escape to Glory (3/1 win) - *** Rating
I apologise for the lack of advised stakes, but normal service will be resumed tomorrow and if you do decide to back any of my selections today, then I would suggest that you lower your stakes slightly. I will be getting a call from my Hill's man later this afternoon but I definitely won't be backing the short priced Fav (Safarjal) as he has let me down plenty of times before. Their other runner today looks to have his work cut out against the Godolphin horse but if the word for this one is positive then I may well have a punt as I know Rugosa was highly thought of last year.
Tuesday, 29 May 2012
Update
Two more bets to add to today's selections, one is info and the other is a horse who has just appeared in my race alerts;
Ripon 3:10 - Fortieth and Fifth (2/1) - 10pt win - Not the most original of info selections but the yard are on this one and its a more appealing price than their runner in the first who is also expected to do the business.
Chepstow 3:30 - May Be Some Time (5/1) - 2pt win - This horse won well on its last start and although it is making its comeback from a 200 day+ break I believe he still has room for improvement off his current mark and the trainer usually primes his horses for their first run, especially at Chepstow.
Ripon 3:10 - Fortieth and Fifth (2/1) - 10pt win - Not the most original of info selections but the yard are on this one and its a more appealing price than their runner in the first who is also expected to do the business.
Chepstow 3:30 - May Be Some Time (5/1) - 2pt win - This horse won well on its last start and although it is making its comeback from a 200 day+ break I believe he still has room for improvement off his current mark and the trainer usually primes his horses for their first run, especially at Chepstow.
Today's Selections
Very good day for the blog yesterday as I recorded 4 winning bets resulting in 47.25pts profit and a starting bank for today of 539.25 points.
Today's Selections
3:20 Lingfield - Effistorm (3/1) - 10pt win - This horse is a claiming system qualifier and should take all the beating today. Conor Dore is presented by no less than 4 runners in the race but in my opinion this one definitely looks to have the strongest claims although it was a close call between him and the mount of George Baker. Like Yes Chef below I got on at much bigger prices last night (5/1+) but for the purposes of the P/L I will be using the highest available price at the time of writing.
4:30 Chepstow - Yes Chef (7/2) - 4pt win - I backed this horse LTO and it flopped, today it returns to a course where it has a great record and the horse is obviously starting to look very well handicapped. I actually managed to get on last night at 4/1 but the horse has already been supported so for the purposes of the P/L I will be using the highest available price at the time of writing which is 7/2. I strongly believe that this horse has been tee'd up for this race and although Sammy Alexander makes some appeal, the Millman yard very rarely leave their money behind.
5:00 Chepstow - Velvet Start (6/1) - 1.50pts e/w - This horse is very well bred and was disappointing last season where she was well beaten in 3 class 4 maidens. She makes her debut as a three year old today and it would be very frustrating for connections if she didn't show some promise today off a basement mark. She is taking a considerable step up in trip which is sure to suit her on the basis of her pedigree and that makes her of additional interest but obviously the current form of the trainer and the jockey's poor strike rate when riding 3yo's for the yard would temper my enthusiasm slightly.
6:25 Huntingdon - Festival Bound (2/1) -10pt win - This is a horse from my hunter chase connection. The horse has apparently been performing very well in PTP races and is expected to record his first victory in the hunter chase discipline today before targeting bigger things in the next 12 months. From what I can tell the horse has a nice hunter chase pedigree and the ground, distance and nature of the course will apparently be in his favour.
8:35 Ballinrobe - Native Son (11/2) - 2pt win - This is an info horse from my source in Ireland who has been quiet in the last few days. Although on the face of it Native Son looks to have tried and failed on a couple of occasions to win a bumper, better is expected today. He is race fit so that definitely won't be a problem and today's field looks very weak compared to the line up he met last time out. The yard have employed the services of McNamara who is one of the most talented amateur riders in Ireland, so if anyone can get this horse home in front then it's him. Connections will apparently be having money on this one to win and although there is a small bit of e/w value at the moment I will be going for the win as well. Obviously we are looking at a pretty poor race though so I would advise anyone having a punt to keep their stakes small.
That concludes today's selections for the time being although there may be a few more selections to come later in the day if I hear anything or something catches my eye.
Happy punting.
Today's Selections
3:20 Lingfield - Effistorm (3/1) - 10pt win - This horse is a claiming system qualifier and should take all the beating today. Conor Dore is presented by no less than 4 runners in the race but in my opinion this one definitely looks to have the strongest claims although it was a close call between him and the mount of George Baker. Like Yes Chef below I got on at much bigger prices last night (5/1+) but for the purposes of the P/L I will be using the highest available price at the time of writing.
4:30 Chepstow - Yes Chef (7/2) - 4pt win - I backed this horse LTO and it flopped, today it returns to a course where it has a great record and the horse is obviously starting to look very well handicapped. I actually managed to get on last night at 4/1 but the horse has already been supported so for the purposes of the P/L I will be using the highest available price at the time of writing which is 7/2. I strongly believe that this horse has been tee'd up for this race and although Sammy Alexander makes some appeal, the Millman yard very rarely leave their money behind.
5:00 Chepstow - Velvet Start (6/1) - 1.50pts e/w - This horse is very well bred and was disappointing last season where she was well beaten in 3 class 4 maidens. She makes her debut as a three year old today and it would be very frustrating for connections if she didn't show some promise today off a basement mark. She is taking a considerable step up in trip which is sure to suit her on the basis of her pedigree and that makes her of additional interest but obviously the current form of the trainer and the jockey's poor strike rate when riding 3yo's for the yard would temper my enthusiasm slightly.
6:25 Huntingdon - Festival Bound (2/1) -10pt win - This is a horse from my hunter chase connection. The horse has apparently been performing very well in PTP races and is expected to record his first victory in the hunter chase discipline today before targeting bigger things in the next 12 months. From what I can tell the horse has a nice hunter chase pedigree and the ground, distance and nature of the course will apparently be in his favour.
8:35 Ballinrobe - Native Son (11/2) - 2pt win - This is an info horse from my source in Ireland who has been quiet in the last few days. Although on the face of it Native Son looks to have tried and failed on a couple of occasions to win a bumper, better is expected today. He is race fit so that definitely won't be a problem and today's field looks very weak compared to the line up he met last time out. The yard have employed the services of McNamara who is one of the most talented amateur riders in Ireland, so if anyone can get this horse home in front then it's him. Connections will apparently be having money on this one to win and although there is a small bit of e/w value at the moment I will be going for the win as well. Obviously we are looking at a pretty poor race though so I would advise anyone having a punt to keep their stakes small.
That concludes today's selections for the time being although there may be a few more selections to come later in the day if I hear anything or something catches my eye.
Happy punting.
Monday, 28 May 2012
Info Horse
SEQUIOA -3:15 Kempton (9/1) - This horse is thought to have a very good chance of at least running into a place here today. He is bred for the AW and therefore connections expect significant improvement on his 3 turf runs to date. I have had 1.5pt e/w at 9/1.
Today's Selections
No time for detailed write up's today and I am still waiting on calls for the Hill's runners so I will post them up as and when I receive them.
Starting Bank = 492.00 pts
2:00 Leicester - COPPERWOOD (7/2) - 2pt win (strong info message for Muhandis but I'm sticking with mine)
4:00 Leicester - RAZOR BILL (1/1 place betfair) - 10pt bet
6:10 Windsor - QUALITY MARK (5/1) - 1pt win
6:50 Carlisle - BENANDONNER (10/11) - 11pt win
7:10 Windsor - QUASI CONGAREE (40/1) - 0.25pts e/w
7:40 Windsor - MARKEB (5/1) -2pt win
Starting Bank = 492.00 pts
2:00 Leicester - COPPERWOOD (7/2) - 2pt win (strong info message for Muhandis but I'm sticking with mine)
4:00 Leicester - RAZOR BILL (1/1 place betfair) - 10pt bet
6:10 Windsor - QUALITY MARK (5/1) - 1pt win
6:50 Carlisle - BENANDONNER (10/11) - 11pt win
7:10 Windsor - QUASI CONGAREE (40/1) - 0.25pts e/w
7:40 Windsor - MARKEB (5/1) -2pt win
Sunday, 27 May 2012
Update
Poor day today as there was a big upset at the Curragh as Samitar upset the apple cart and neither of my jumps selections performed well although I did make a nice sum backing the McCain horse in running as advised.
I have just had a call from the guy who gave me a cracking Hunter Chaser info selection last week and he has another one in the 5:00 at Kelso. Not surprisingly the info horse is the favourite Abragante who is currently taking a nice little walk in the market which makes the price quite attractive. I was going to call it a day but I fancy this one and I'm going for 8pts at 9/4 and have also had a 1pt e/w forecast with Itzacliche
I have just had a call from the guy who gave me a cracking Hunter Chaser info selection last week and he has another one in the 5:00 at Kelso. Not surprisingly the info horse is the favourite Abragante who is currently taking a nice little walk in the market which makes the price quite attractive. I was going to call it a day but I fancy this one and I'm going for 8pts at 9/4 and have also had a 1pt e/w forecast with Itzacliche
Today's Selections
Starting Bank = 516pts - 1pt =£10 but people can use whatever denomination fits there financial position
2:05 Curragh - Tannery (7/1) - 3pts e/w - Now I have always been a major fan of dosage ratings and this race throws up some interesting stats when you look at the blood line indicators of the previous winners. It is evident from close examination of the ratings that speed is important as is a balanced pedigree. Now the fav has been all the rage this morning but no winner or placed runner in this race for the last 5 years has had a rating less then 16 and the majority have been in the high 20's. Crius has a rating of just 10 and his pedigree is too heavily weighted towards stamina to be winning this race. For that reason it was necessary to look for an alternative and the two which immediately leaped of the page were Tannery and Soon, it was a close call between the two but Tannery has positive form against the O'Brien runner and for that reason he was my ew selection. I will be having a 1pt RF with Soon as well though just in case.
3:40 Curragh - La Colina (5/1) - 5pt win - All Homecoming Queens win in the Guineas was impressive I'm not convinced that she can do it again on good ground and I just feel that La Colina is much better value and after meeting a bit of trouble in running LTO she may well get the prize she deserves this season.
2:45 Kelso - Carters Rest (9/2) - 3pt win - I got on this horse early this morning and it has subsequently come in for a bit of support. In my opinion it should be a straight race between Carter and Beidh and I'm hopeful that mine will come out on top but if the Macain horse settles in the early stages then I suggest that everyone looks to back him in running because the horse has showed promise on numerous occasions but his chances have been destroyed by being too keen early on.
3:50 Kelso - Rockability (11/2) - 2pt win - only info horse for the day and apparently it should go very close, only time will tell.
Total Stake = 20pts
(Points total includes 1pt e/w double on the Curragh Selections)
2:05 Curragh - Tannery (7/1) - 3pts e/w - Now I have always been a major fan of dosage ratings and this race throws up some interesting stats when you look at the blood line indicators of the previous winners. It is evident from close examination of the ratings that speed is important as is a balanced pedigree. Now the fav has been all the rage this morning but no winner or placed runner in this race for the last 5 years has had a rating less then 16 and the majority have been in the high 20's. Crius has a rating of just 10 and his pedigree is too heavily weighted towards stamina to be winning this race. For that reason it was necessary to look for an alternative and the two which immediately leaped of the page were Tannery and Soon, it was a close call between the two but Tannery has positive form against the O'Brien runner and for that reason he was my ew selection. I will be having a 1pt RF with Soon as well though just in case.
3:40 Curragh - La Colina (5/1) - 5pt win - All Homecoming Queens win in the Guineas was impressive I'm not convinced that she can do it again on good ground and I just feel that La Colina is much better value and after meeting a bit of trouble in running LTO she may well get the prize she deserves this season.
2:45 Kelso - Carters Rest (9/2) - 3pt win - I got on this horse early this morning and it has subsequently come in for a bit of support. In my opinion it should be a straight race between Carter and Beidh and I'm hopeful that mine will come out on top but if the Macain horse settles in the early stages then I suggest that everyone looks to back him in running because the horse has showed promise on numerous occasions but his chances have been destroyed by being too keen early on.
3:50 Kelso - Rockability (11/2) - 2pt win - only info horse for the day and apparently it should go very close, only time will tell.
Total Stake = 20pts
(Points total includes 1pt e/w double on the Curragh Selections)
The Curragh
Two early selections for tomorrow as I expect both horse's to go off shorter than their current prices;
2:05 - Tannery (7/1) - 3pts e/w
3:40 - La Colina (5/1) - 5pt win
I have also placed a 1pt ew double
Full write up's together with the rest of tomorrows selections will be posted up later today.
2:05 - Tannery (7/1) - 3pts e/w
3:40 - La Colina (5/1) - 5pt win
I have also placed a 1pt ew double
Full write up's together with the rest of tomorrows selections will be posted up later today.
Saturday, 26 May 2012
Today's Final Score
Well the final info horse of the day did the business and put a massive smile on my face as I insured a healthy profit on the first day of the new P/L.
Total Stake = 37 points
Total Return = 53 points
Starting Bank on Day 2 = 516.00 points
Update
Well after a great start to the day things tailed off when the first info horse of the day and the short priced favourite came up second best. My source did highlight the fact that the Hannon horse was a danger and he was proved right. Desert Strike was disappointing but things panned out terribly for him, he found himself out in front in the early stages after breaking well and then found a bit of trouble in running. So far I have recorded a small lost on the first day of this new P/L and its definitely not the start I would have wished for.
I have received an info horse for later on in the Newbury card and I'm in two minds as to whether to back it or not as it looks like a trappy race,the horse is MAYDREAM and it runs in the 8:25. I will be taking a close look at the card between now and the off and if I like what I see I will be having 3pts on the win at 6/1. I will post a quick update around 8 o'clock to confirm my decision one way or another.
I have received an info horse for later on in the Newbury card and I'm in two minds as to whether to back it or not as it looks like a trappy race,the horse is MAYDREAM and it runs in the 8:25. I will be taking a close look at the card between now and the off and if I like what I see I will be having 3pts on the win at 6/1. I will post a quick update around 8 o'clock to confirm my decision one way or another.
Today's Selection and Info
So today marks the start of the new P/L, we banked 85.98pts clear profit in the last 4 weeks and I will be starting again today with the same starting betting bank of 500pts.
Todays Racing
Today we see some great racing both in England and Ireland but in my opinion some of the high profile races such as the 2000's and the Silver Bowl look like very difficult puzzles to try and solve and for that reason i will be staying well clear of them. For those of you that do wish to attempt to find the winner in the Irish Guineas here are a few little stats to help you on your way;
1. All of the past 10 winners had already raced this season
2. Previous form is very important and 90% of recent winners had already been placed in a group 1 race
3. Since 1997 16% of all winners had one their previous engagement
4. No horse outside the first 6 in the betting has won the race since 1997
5. No horse since 1997 has won the race when turning up less than 16 days after its last performance
6. All of the last 10 winners were born before the 9th April
7. 8 out of the last 10 winners were sired by a Group 1 horse
8. 8 out of the last 10 winners had won on their 2yo debut
9. 10 of the last 10 winners had run in the English 2000 Guineas
10.Richard Hannon has a 100% place strike rate in the race.
Taking those stats into consideration I would probably be minded to side with Trumpet Major or Power but to be honest it looks like a poor renewal and anything could probably win it.
Today's Selections
Now we move on to today's selections and I'm hopeful that I have found some value selections and also have a few info picks from the Hill's yard who have no fewer than 6 runners today.
2:45 Goodwood - Jet Away (7/2) - 6pt win - Now this horse has been frustrating in Listed company in the past but he has plenty going in his favour today and will love the fast ground. He also meets the majority of the key trends and compared to Fiorente and Retrieve this one looks like good value.
4:35 Chester - Calaf (13/2) - 2pts e/w - Now the Hill's yard have a runner in this race and although my source thought that he had a chance I have decided to side with my personal selection. Calaf is a horse on the upgrade and although the Handicapper has reacted badly to his last 2 runs back on genuine good ground I believe there may be further room for improvement.
4:50 York - Pea Shooter (9/2) - 4pt win - I got a call for this horse before its last race and unfortunately his disappointed after traveling well in the early stages of the race. The horse has apparently come on considerably from the run and connections expect this horse to be very difficult to beat today.
5:35 Goodwood - Ensejaam (6/4) - 16pt win - This was the strongest message of the day today from the Hill's yard and as you can probably guess from the price and the recent plunge, they fully expect this one to win today. Time should show that this one was beaten by a very good horse LTO and Ensejaam is very highly thought of in the yard. 7f is definitely right at the end of her comfort zone but connections believe that she has the class to over come that in what is a weak look field and the only danger they highlighted is the Hannon horse.
7:00 Lingfield - Desert Strike (6/1) - 3pt win - Today may well be the day that Desert Strike bags his win, he has been very unlucky recently but connections are very happy about how the entries have worked out for today as there are a buck load of front runners going to post. DS needs a very strong gallop to aim at and in the hands of Ryan Moore this one is expected to be finishing fast and will hopefully get up close home. At 6/1 there is a bit of e/w value but the sun is shinning and I'm feeling brave so I have gone for the win.
8:40 Lingfield - The Hill's horse is thought to have a chance in this one but my guy has heard whispers that a big, big run is expected from Tis Rock n Roll and for that reason the advice was to give Never Satisfied a swerve tonight.
So that concludes today's selections although I may have something else in the pipe line for later today but will have to wait and see things pan out on.
Best of luck today and lets hope we can start the new P/L off on a high.
Todays Racing
Today we see some great racing both in England and Ireland but in my opinion some of the high profile races such as the 2000's and the Silver Bowl look like very difficult puzzles to try and solve and for that reason i will be staying well clear of them. For those of you that do wish to attempt to find the winner in the Irish Guineas here are a few little stats to help you on your way;
1. All of the past 10 winners had already raced this season
2. Previous form is very important and 90% of recent winners had already been placed in a group 1 race
3. Since 1997 16% of all winners had one their previous engagement
4. No horse outside the first 6 in the betting has won the race since 1997
5. No horse since 1997 has won the race when turning up less than 16 days after its last performance
6. All of the last 10 winners were born before the 9th April
7. 8 out of the last 10 winners were sired by a Group 1 horse
8. 8 out of the last 10 winners had won on their 2yo debut
9. 10 of the last 10 winners had run in the English 2000 Guineas
10.Richard Hannon has a 100% place strike rate in the race.
Taking those stats into consideration I would probably be minded to side with Trumpet Major or Power but to be honest it looks like a poor renewal and anything could probably win it.
Today's Selections
Now we move on to today's selections and I'm hopeful that I have found some value selections and also have a few info picks from the Hill's yard who have no fewer than 6 runners today.
2:45 Goodwood - Jet Away (7/2) - 6pt win - Now this horse has been frustrating in Listed company in the past but he has plenty going in his favour today and will love the fast ground. He also meets the majority of the key trends and compared to Fiorente and Retrieve this one looks like good value.
4:35 Chester - Calaf (13/2) - 2pts e/w - Now the Hill's yard have a runner in this race and although my source thought that he had a chance I have decided to side with my personal selection. Calaf is a horse on the upgrade and although the Handicapper has reacted badly to his last 2 runs back on genuine good ground I believe there may be further room for improvement.
4:50 York - Pea Shooter (9/2) - 4pt win - I got a call for this horse before its last race and unfortunately his disappointed after traveling well in the early stages of the race. The horse has apparently come on considerably from the run and connections expect this horse to be very difficult to beat today.
5:35 Goodwood - Ensejaam (6/4) - 16pt win - This was the strongest message of the day today from the Hill's yard and as you can probably guess from the price and the recent plunge, they fully expect this one to win today. Time should show that this one was beaten by a very good horse LTO and Ensejaam is very highly thought of in the yard. 7f is definitely right at the end of her comfort zone but connections believe that she has the class to over come that in what is a weak look field and the only danger they highlighted is the Hannon horse.
7:00 Lingfield - Desert Strike (6/1) - 3pt win - Today may well be the day that Desert Strike bags his win, he has been very unlucky recently but connections are very happy about how the entries have worked out for today as there are a buck load of front runners going to post. DS needs a very strong gallop to aim at and in the hands of Ryan Moore this one is expected to be finishing fast and will hopefully get up close home. At 6/1 there is a bit of e/w value but the sun is shinning and I'm feeling brave so I have gone for the win.
8:40 Lingfield - The Hill's horse is thought to have a chance in this one but my guy has heard whispers that a big, big run is expected from Tis Rock n Roll and for that reason the advice was to give Never Satisfied a swerve tonight.
So that concludes today's selections although I may have something else in the pipe line for later today but will have to wait and see things pan out on.
Best of luck today and lets hope we can start the new P/L off on a high.
Friday, 25 May 2012
8:25 Towcester
Cecily Parsley (13/8) - 16pt win - last bet of what has so far been a profitable day thanks to some top notch info from my man in the Hills yard. Let's hope this one does the business and ends the P/L on a real high.
Today's Selections
Last day of the advised stakes P/L today so lets hope we can end on a high after a disappointing day yesterday.
Starting Bank 583.48
3:10 Goodwood - Konstantin (5/1) - 3pt win
3:45 Goodwood - Perennial (5/1) - 3pt win
5:30 Goodwood - Amber Silk (12/1) - 0.50pts e/w
4:05 Haydock - Basseterre (3/1) - 15pt win
6:25 Towcester - Run along Boy (12/1) - 1pts e/w
6:45 Musselburugh - Edas (12/1) - 0.50pts e/w
7:45 Musselburugh - Los Nadis (5/2) - 9pts win.
Total Stake = 35 points.
Starting Bank 583.48
3:10 Goodwood - Konstantin (5/1) - 3pt win
3:45 Goodwood - Perennial (5/1) - 3pt win
5:30 Goodwood - Amber Silk (12/1) - 0.50pts e/w
4:05 Haydock - Basseterre (3/1) - 15pt win
6:25 Towcester - Run along Boy (12/1) - 1pts e/w
6:45 Musselburugh - Edas (12/1) - 0.50pts e/w
7:45 Musselburugh - Los Nadis (5/2) - 9pts win.
Total Stake = 35 points.
Thursday, 24 May 2012
Barbs Princess
This horse was considered to be a great e/w bet at the start of the day as she has been working really well at home, but the withdrawals now mean that there is no e/w value to be had which is a real shame. It was a bit of a coin toss as to whether or not to bite the bullet and back it to win and although some of the stable has, I have decided not to get involved this time.
Hill's Info
I'm about to pop out for lunch so will be writing up the rest of the runners later on but I can tell you that Glen Ginnie is expected to need the run in the opening race at Goodwood. She is a very fast filly who will definitely win races this season but connections believe that there may be something in the line up more forward than her and from a pedigree point of view she should be held by Sky Lantern. My guy did hear at the track that a big run is expected from the Channon horse but in his opinion this is a race not to be involved in financially and I won't be having a bet on any of the runners.
Update 2:15
REGAL DAN - 6:10 Salisbury - This horse is thought to have a place claim but it looks like a difficult race and although the horse has shown a great deal of promise at home, he has disappointed so far this season. Having fluffed his start LTO connections are now a bit reluctant to back him as you have very little room for error over sprint distances. The presence of Black Monk and Jubilee Brig (latter apparently well fancied) also temper enthusiasm and for that reason my source will not be backing him this time out.
My source is now the second person to give KAKATOSI a positive endorsement in the 3:10 at Goodwood and for that reason I will now be having a 1pt e.w bet (BOG) at 16/1.
Update 2:15
REGAL DAN - 6:10 Salisbury - This horse is thought to have a place claim but it looks like a difficult race and although the horse has shown a great deal of promise at home, he has disappointed so far this season. Having fluffed his start LTO connections are now a bit reluctant to back him as you have very little room for error over sprint distances. The presence of Black Monk and Jubilee Brig (latter apparently well fancied) also temper enthusiasm and for that reason my source will not be backing him this time out.
My source is now the second person to give KAKATOSI a positive endorsement in the 3:10 at Goodwood and for that reason I will now be having a 1pt e.w bet (BOG) at 16/1.
Today's Selections
Starting Bank = 615.98
3:10 Goodwood - Bonnie Brae (5/1) - 3pt win
3:45 Goodwood - Zaina (3/1 place) - 3pts
3:45 Goodwood - Gathering (9/2) - 4pt win
4:20 Goodwood - May Contain Nuts (12/1) - 1pt win & 7pt place at 11/4
4:30 Wetherby - On Borrowed Wings (7/1) - 2.50pts e/w
7:35 Sandown - Lancaster Gate (5/2 place) - 8pts
8:50 Salisbury - Travelling (9/2) - 4pt win
Total Stake = 35 points
Info on all of the Hill's runners will be posted up later this afternoon as I am yet to receive a call from my source yet. I also received a call this morning for KAKATOSI who runs in the 3:10 and is thought be a good e/w prospect. Having already backed Bonnie Brae I decided not to place a second bet in the race but this horse may be a good bet for punters looking for a bit of e/w value.
UPDATE - 13:00
Wetherby - 3pt double
3:55 - Kings Bayonet (2/1)
5:40 - Double Silver (85/40)
3:10 Goodwood - Bonnie Brae (5/1) - 3pt win
3:45 Goodwood - Zaina (3/1 place) - 3pts
3:45 Goodwood - Gathering (9/2) - 4pt win
4:20 Goodwood - May Contain Nuts (12/1) - 1pt win & 7pt place at 11/4
4:30 Wetherby - On Borrowed Wings (7/1) - 2.50pts e/w
7:35 Sandown - Lancaster Gate (5/2 place) - 8pts
8:50 Salisbury - Travelling (9/2) - 4pt win
Total Stake = 35 points
Info on all of the Hill's runners will be posted up later this afternoon as I am yet to receive a call from my source yet. I also received a call this morning for KAKATOSI who runs in the 3:10 and is thought be a good e/w prospect. Having already backed Bonnie Brae I decided not to place a second bet in the race but this horse may be a good bet for punters looking for a bit of e/w value.
UPDATE - 13:00
Wetherby - 3pt double
3:55 - Kings Bayonet (2/1)
5:40 - Double Silver (85/40)
Final Score (23.05.12)
Two days left to run on the advised stakes P/L and the current bank after today's performance stands at 615.98pts which equates to 115.98pts profit in the last 26 days. I have some great bets lined up for tomorrow and will also be giving readers the low-down on all three of the Hill's runners.
Wednesday, 23 May 2012
Update
Well what a day we have had on the blog today, no fewer than 5 winning bets and a very healthy profit. I was going to call it a day but I have decided to have on last bet. The horse is PEACHY MOMENT (9/2). it runs in the 8:00 at Sedgefield and I have had 6pts on the win.
p.s. Thank you to all those who have sent thank you messages today and I'm glad everyone has managed to increase their profit for the month.
p.s. Thank you to all those who have sent thank you messages today and I'm glad everyone has managed to increase their profit for the month.
Today's Selections
Starting Bank = 551.58
2:30 Ling - Clowance House (13/8 place) - 8pts
3:30 Ling - Reggie Perrin (4/1) - 3pt win
4:00 Ling - Alfraamsey (9/4) - 8pt win
4:30 Ling - Kyanight (12/1) - 1pt e/w
6:00 Sedge - Ivan Kasilivich (11/4) - 8pt win
6:30 Sedge - Feel the Power (10/3) - 3pt win
3pt Treble
Alfraamsey (9/4)
Ivan Kasilivich (11/4)
Red Somerset (9/4)
Total Stake = 35pts
2:30 Ling - Clowance House (13/8 place) - 8pts
3:30 Ling - Reggie Perrin (4/1) - 3pt win
4:00 Ling - Alfraamsey (9/4) - 8pt win
4:30 Ling - Kyanight (12/1) - 1pt e/w
6:00 Sedge - Ivan Kasilivich (11/4) - 8pt win
6:30 Sedge - Feel the Power (10/3) - 3pt win
3pt Treble
Alfraamsey (9/4)
Ivan Kasilivich (11/4)
Red Somerset (9/4)
Total Stake = 35pts
Tuesday, 22 May 2012
8:30 Kempton
Links Drive Lady (7/1 BOG) 5pts e/w. Should get the job done.
P.s. Those complaining about the performance of the Hill's runner, I'm not going to comment as some people obviously can't read! The question to asl yourself is why would you back it after I had told you that neither my source or I had placed a bet on the horse!
P.s. Those complaining about the performance of the Hill's runner, I'm not going to comment as some people obviously can't read! The question to asl yourself is why would you back it after I had told you that neither my source or I had placed a bet on the horse!
Hills Horse
Quick update before the off, Kaafel is strongly fancied to do the business but the price is too short for my guy and he wont be having a bet and neither will I. All going to plan it wins going away though (2 lengths predicted)
INFO
Info Selection will be posted here between 4/5 o'clock I have already had a bet on it to place at evens (8pts) together with a win bet of 2pts at 8/1 but have been told to refrain from posting until closer to the off.
Slightly early as the horse is currently trading at evens again for a place on the exchanges and I don't want people to miss out on that price. Horse is LOVE GROWS WILD and it runs in the 5:30 at Brighton.
Slightly early as the horse is currently trading at evens again for a place on the exchanges and I don't want people to miss out on that price. Horse is LOVE GROWS WILD and it runs in the 5:30 at Brighton.
Today's Selections
Starting Bank = 563.58
1:45 Notting - Restless Harry (4/1) - 5pt win
2:45 Notting - Boucher Garcon (6/4 Place) - 8pts
3:00 Brighton - Methayel (7/4) - 8pt win
3:15 Notting - Veloce (4/1) - 5pt win
3:30 Brighton - Willy Fox (7/1) -1pt e/w
5:45 Towcest - The Darling Boy (7/4 place) - 8pts
7:15 Towcest - The Wee Midget (7/1 place) - 2pts
Total Stake 38 points
I am waiting on a call about a massive info horse today which will hopefully be posted up early enough for all my readers to get a decent price so watch this space.
1:45 Notting - Restless Harry (4/1) - 5pt win
2:45 Notting - Boucher Garcon (6/4 Place) - 8pts
3:00 Brighton - Methayel (7/4) - 8pt win
3:15 Notting - Veloce (4/1) - 5pt win
3:30 Brighton - Willy Fox (7/1) -1pt e/w
5:45 Towcest - The Darling Boy (7/4 place) - 8pts
7:15 Towcest - The Wee Midget (7/1 place) - 2pts
Total Stake 38 points
I am waiting on a call about a massive info horse today which will hopefully be posted up early enough for all my readers to get a decent price so watch this space.
Monday, 21 May 2012
Windsor Info
Plenty of people asking me about the Hill's runner RED SENOR in the 8:50 and having spoken to my man he has confirmed that the yard really fancy this one e/w. His previous run at the track was very promising as he recorded a good time after travelling further than most from a wide draw. He is drawn inside today which should suit him down to the ground and connections were some what surprised to seem available at prices as big as 14/1 on the exchanges earlier today. The only thing that tempers his confidence slightly is that he knows that a few other horses in the field have been punted and are also expected to run well and for that reason he will only be having a small e/w bet and I have followed him placing 2pts e/w at 10/1.
Elsewhere on the card he has heard a very positive word for the Bell runner HOYAM in the 6:40. He rarely gets involved with debutants but this one is apparently performing very well at home and he had a nice place bet at evens on the exchanges earlier today. Obviously that price is no longer available and she is now trading at around 10/11 which looks a bit short for me but if she hits evens again before off time I will be having 10 pts on this Royal Applause Filly.
Elsewhere on the card he has heard a very positive word for the Bell runner HOYAM in the 6:40. He rarely gets involved with debutants but this one is apparently performing very well at home and he had a nice place bet at evens on the exchanges earlier today. Obviously that price is no longer available and she is now trading at around 10/11 which looks a bit short for me but if she hits evens again before off time I will be having 10 pts on this Royal Applause Filly.
Update
Following the withdrawal of Twyford I will now be having 6pts on Tordande D'estruval at 3/1.
Still waiting on a call from my man in the Hill's yard but Bridghampton is fully expected to win today but is way to short for me so I won't be having a bet.
Today's Selections
Starting Bank = 556.58
2:10 Redcar - EASTERN DRAGON (10/3 - 2 places) 3pts - Horse has an interesting little pedigree and although it looks like a very poor maiden this horse may actually be an ok type. Whether he is good enough to make a winning debut is yet to be seen but I definitely think he has a place claim.
2:20 Newton Abbot - LITTLE JIMMY DEAN (9/4) - 8pt win - I was originally going to back Shangani but foolowing his withdrawal this horse now looks the clear pick as far as form goes. Any money for the Vaughan runner would be very interesting though.
4:20 Newton Abbot - TWYFORD (6/1) - 3pts e/w - I know these connections very well and when they punt a horse they usually go very close, this one has all the makings of a handicap plot and with Mahon heading to the meet for just one ride and claiming 3lb I would be very surprised if this one didn't finish in the first 3.
5:10 Redcar - REMEMBER ROCKY (9/2) - 4 pts win - Not so much a pick based on form but on jockey selection. Mickael was on the other side of the World less than 24 hours ago and I can't believe he made the trip to Redcar for one ride if he didn't think it would be worth it. I expect this one to be punted if that is the case and therefore the early price of 9/2 looks good.
6:10 Windsor - SCARLET ROCK (4/1) - 3pt win - Difficult for me not to back Efistorm in this one but he now looks very high in the handicap and therefore I'm going for the other CD winner in the line up.
Waiting on a few calls today about previous info horses such as Bridgehampton and will also find out whether the Hill's yard fancy their horse at Windsor and will post that info up as soon as I get it.
2:10 Redcar - EASTERN DRAGON (10/3 - 2 places) 3pts - Horse has an interesting little pedigree and although it looks like a very poor maiden this horse may actually be an ok type. Whether he is good enough to make a winning debut is yet to be seen but I definitely think he has a place claim.
2:20 Newton Abbot - LITTLE JIMMY DEAN (9/4) - 8pt win - I was originally going to back Shangani but foolowing his withdrawal this horse now looks the clear pick as far as form goes. Any money for the Vaughan runner would be very interesting though.
4:20 Newton Abbot - TWYFORD (6/1) - 3pts e/w - I know these connections very well and when they punt a horse they usually go very close, this one has all the makings of a handicap plot and with Mahon heading to the meet for just one ride and claiming 3lb I would be very surprised if this one didn't finish in the first 3.
5:10 Redcar - REMEMBER ROCKY (9/2) - 4 pts win - Not so much a pick based on form but on jockey selection. Mickael was on the other side of the World less than 24 hours ago and I can't believe he made the trip to Redcar for one ride if he didn't think it would be worth it. I expect this one to be punted if that is the case and therefore the early price of 9/2 looks good.
6:10 Windsor - SCARLET ROCK (4/1) - 3pt win - Difficult for me not to back Efistorm in this one but he now looks very high in the handicap and therefore I'm going for the other CD winner in the line up.
Waiting on a few calls today about previous info horses such as Bridgehampton and will also find out whether the Hill's yard fancy their horse at Windsor and will post that info up as soon as I get it.
Sunday, 20 May 2012
4:30 Market Info
KEALSHORE BOY (15/2) - 2pts e/w - No idea how reliable this source is as I have never used him before but he comes highly recommended and has numerous links in the PTP world which usually translates to good info in the hunter chase scene. The horse also looks to have a solid claim from a form point of view so intrigued to see how it runs.
Today's Selections
I have to say that I'm not overly impressed with today's racing in the UK and therefore I wont be having too many bets on our shores and my biggest bet of the day will be in Singapore.
Starting Bank = 555.83
1:40 Kranji - ZAZOU (9/2) - 8pt win - This looks to be a great price for a horse which is on a serious upward curve, the decision to keep the horse in the southern hemisphere is intriguing and the trip and conditions should suit her down to the ground. SHe is well drawn to attack and should run a big race.
3:30 Market - SUBURBAN BAY (5/1) - 5pt win - Has run to consistent level of form since going chasing, faces his easiest task to date and should be able to break his duck against what looks like a weak field.
3:40 Ripon - POLAR KITE (8/1) - Now I won't actually be backing this one until I see what the ground is riding like at the course but if things dry out a bit then I believe this horse has a massive chance of winning the race.
5:00 Market - CARDINAL RICHELIEU (10/1) - 1pt e/w - Not a very good looking bumper and when you get a line up like this its sometimes best just to back Kings Theatre progeny e/w as they usually excel in these types of races. Felix De Giles heads to the meeting for just one ride and with the horse having the benefit of race experience I think he may outrun his odds.
5:10 Ripon - JUST FOR MARY (7/1) - 1.5pts e/w - This is the only info selection of the day and connections are confident that this horse will at least reward e/w backers and having looked at the horses form I am inclined to agree.
Starting Bank = 555.83
1:40 Kranji - ZAZOU (9/2) - 8pt win - This looks to be a great price for a horse which is on a serious upward curve, the decision to keep the horse in the southern hemisphere is intriguing and the trip and conditions should suit her down to the ground. SHe is well drawn to attack and should run a big race.
3:30 Market - SUBURBAN BAY (5/1) - 5pt win - Has run to consistent level of form since going chasing, faces his easiest task to date and should be able to break his duck against what looks like a weak field.
3:40 Ripon - POLAR KITE (8/1) - Now I won't actually be backing this one until I see what the ground is riding like at the course but if things dry out a bit then I believe this horse has a massive chance of winning the race.
5:00 Market - CARDINAL RICHELIEU (10/1) - 1pt e/w - Not a very good looking bumper and when you get a line up like this its sometimes best just to back Kings Theatre progeny e/w as they usually excel in these types of races. Felix De Giles heads to the meeting for just one ride and with the horse having the benefit of race experience I think he may outrun his odds.
5:10 Ripon - JUST FOR MARY (7/1) - 1.5pts e/w - This is the only info selection of the day and connections are confident that this horse will at least reward e/w backers and having looked at the horses form I am inclined to agree.
Saturday, 19 May 2012
Update Info
Horse is Itch Rover and it runs at 8:30 Uttoxeter. Unfortunately the price has now been decimated and I wouldn't advise people back it at the current price although it is considered to be a sure fire winner. I had 10pts at 2/1 and I suggest that people looking to back it should put it in a double with the Hills runner previously mentioned on the blog to enhance the value.
Update
Still waiting on a call for the info horse later this evening but in the meantime I have one more bet to add to today selections
5:45 Thirsk - BEAUTY PAGEANT (14/1) - 2pts e/w
5:45 Thirsk - BEAUTY PAGEANT (14/1) - 2pts e/w
3yo Bloodstock
2:45 Newmarket - Pea Shooter - This horse took a while to develop last season but always ran to a consistent level of form and final won on his final race of the season. The trainer has given him a positive review ahead of his debut today and although Mince looks like the horse to beat, I believe this one has strong e/w claims. I will be having 2pts e/w at 7/1.
4:50 Newbury - Widyaan - this horse is very interesting from an e/w perspective as we should see an enhanced performance due to the fact that the horse finally gets a bit of good ground to work on. The trainer has a very good strike rate with horses in blinkers and this horse wouldn't have to improve too much to win this race. No bet this time out.
5:05 Newmarket - Ibtahaj - very disappointing on its first run this season but was probably entitled to need that. He should so himself in a much better light on better ground today and I wouldn't be surprised if we saw significant improvement but I would like to see a bit of support in the market before I thought about backing him. No bet at the moment
5:15 Thirsk - Seventh Sign - Gave this horse a big write up earlier in the week on this thread and personally I think this horse is massively over priced at 9/2. Although Pistol is obviously fancied this horse has to show something today if connections want to aim him at bigger things this season. Will see how the rest of today's selections go before making a decision about this one.
5:40 Newmarket - Surja - this horse wasn't on my list last year but it went straight into my alerts after its recent win. The horse gets the GF ground he wants today and his performance in the market would suggest that further improvement is expected. Currently priced up around 3/1 this looks like a great bet and I will be having 5pts on the win.
Today' Selections
Very good day for the blog yesterday as we returned 41.80pts profit. Some great racing on today but that makes it difficult to find a winner and for that reason I have deliberately stayed away from some of the big races today.
Starting Bank - 552.83
2:15 Newmarket - FARHAAN (7/1) - 2pt win - No e/w value in this race so going for the win, this horse has been the subject of some very positive reports and with Nobel Mission giving him 5lb I think this horse is over priced.
2:30 Newbury - NAABEGHA (14/1) - 1.5pts e/w - Horse hasn't always looked that straight forward since moving to England but having watched his races he has looked like a big win is waiting just around the corner. He is a proven front runner which will be a massive advantage today especially as he stays further than 6f and can look to make this a real test. He loves a bit of cut in the ground and has the very talented James Doyle in the saddle.
3:10 Bangor - GOLDEN CALL (EVENS) - 15pt win - This horse has been extremely progressive over hurdles this season and has thought to be a smart staying chaser in the making. The drop back in trip is slight concern but in my opinion Macguire is one of the best jockeys in the business from the front and I expect him to go for home very early on this one. Biggest danger in my opinion will be LAVA LAMP and I may have a RF with that horse as well just in case.
3:45 Bangor - CHICAGO ALLEY (12/1) - 1pt e/w - Now it's not very often that I back an 11 year old in a race like this but I'm sure this horse has another win in him and if he does then today will be the day as this course has always been one which has brought out in the best of him. The trainer/owner is a very shrewd operator and having purchased this horse out of another yard a few months ago he is yet to have a pay day and I have a feeling that will all change today in what is a very weak looking race.
Hill's Information.
7:15 Doncaster - SIR PEDRO (3/1) - 5pt win - This horse is thought to be a very nice little prospect and connection are very hopeful that he will make a winning debut today, plenty in the yard have had a punt and although there are a few dangers in the field they think this horse is forward enough to do himself justice.
The rest of the Hill's runners BALTY BOYS, QUANAAS and RANSOM NOTE are all thought to have e/w shouts but Balty is becoming seriously frustrating and the antics by Quanaas before his last race would give me serious reservations about backing him this time out although he is highly thought of and will be winning races this season. RANSOM NOTE is available at ridiculous place prices on the exchanges and this one could be worth a few quid as connections haven't booked fallon for nothing and dont plan on just making up the numbers but they all believe that Frankel will storm this one.
That's it for the time being but there is still and info horse coming up later on, just waiting for the call about the conditions and then I will post it up.
Starting Bank - 552.83
2:15 Newmarket - FARHAAN (7/1) - 2pt win - No e/w value in this race so going for the win, this horse has been the subject of some very positive reports and with Nobel Mission giving him 5lb I think this horse is over priced.
2:30 Newbury - NAABEGHA (14/1) - 1.5pts e/w - Horse hasn't always looked that straight forward since moving to England but having watched his races he has looked like a big win is waiting just around the corner. He is a proven front runner which will be a massive advantage today especially as he stays further than 6f and can look to make this a real test. He loves a bit of cut in the ground and has the very talented James Doyle in the saddle.
3:10 Bangor - GOLDEN CALL (EVENS) - 15pt win - This horse has been extremely progressive over hurdles this season and has thought to be a smart staying chaser in the making. The drop back in trip is slight concern but in my opinion Macguire is one of the best jockeys in the business from the front and I expect him to go for home very early on this one. Biggest danger in my opinion will be LAVA LAMP and I may have a RF with that horse as well just in case.
3:45 Bangor - CHICAGO ALLEY (12/1) - 1pt e/w - Now it's not very often that I back an 11 year old in a race like this but I'm sure this horse has another win in him and if he does then today will be the day as this course has always been one which has brought out in the best of him. The trainer/owner is a very shrewd operator and having purchased this horse out of another yard a few months ago he is yet to have a pay day and I have a feeling that will all change today in what is a very weak looking race.
Hill's Information.
7:15 Doncaster - SIR PEDRO (3/1) - 5pt win - This horse is thought to be a very nice little prospect and connection are very hopeful that he will make a winning debut today, plenty in the yard have had a punt and although there are a few dangers in the field they think this horse is forward enough to do himself justice.
The rest of the Hill's runners BALTY BOYS, QUANAAS and RANSOM NOTE are all thought to have e/w shouts but Balty is becoming seriously frustrating and the antics by Quanaas before his last race would give me serious reservations about backing him this time out although he is highly thought of and will be winning races this season. RANSOM NOTE is available at ridiculous place prices on the exchanges and this one could be worth a few quid as connections haven't booked fallon for nothing and dont plan on just making up the numbers but they all believe that Frankel will storm this one.
That's it for the time being but there is still and info horse coming up later on, just waiting for the call about the conditions and then I will post it up.
Friday, 18 May 2012
7:05 Aintree
NATIVE GALLERY (12/1) - 2pts e/w had a long old look at this horse, I really fancy it, have had a nice e/w bet on him and it will be my last bet of the day. Plenty of decent looking races tomorrow and I have a nice info horse lined up tomorrow from an owner so will be interesting to see how that one goes. Hope everyone has a good evening and I will see you all tomorrow for the return of the almighty Frankel!
Hills Runners
Lawn Jamil (5/1) is a horse who at one point was thought to be a smart prospect but he had his quirks and things didn't quite work out. He has been gelded over the winter and makes his seasonal appearance today in the 2:50 at Newmarket and connections have opted to run the horse in a tongue tie and have also stepped him up in trip. The horse was always considered to be a 1m+ horse and therefore they are hopeful that the increase in distance will aid his cause but he is not a straight forward horse to train and there is every chance that he will come on from the run. As far as betting is concerned he may be worth an e/w bet though, as the rest of the field doesn't look great.
The second Hills runner on the Newmarket card is Fadhaa in the 3:55 (12/1)and this horse is a real character. He lost me money a few times last season but to be honest, on the whole, he was very unlucky and was given a few poor rides. As a result connections still feel that he is not a lost cause, and could continue to progress off his current mark. He is a horse which is best when fresh and therefore connections also believe that today could be the best day to catch him although only a faithful few have had e/w punts. Personally having lost money on this horse in the past I'm going to give it a miss as far as singles are concerned but I will be having a small 0.50pt e/w double with both of the two Hills runners at Newmarket, just in case.
The final Hills runners is West Leake Diman and he is a horse which isn't looking particularly well handicapped at the current time. He may have a small e/w shout but no one in the yard will be on him today and probably best to stay clear until he takes a drop in class. My man did give a positive endorsement for Durwaaz though which was interesting.
Outside of his own yard today my guy said that he had heard very positive words for WATERCLOCK (3:45 Newbury) and that this would be his sole bet of the day. He very rarely backs horses which he isn't associated with as you can obviously get your fingers burnt, be we was confident that this horse was a very good e/w prospect and with that in mind I have had 2pts e/w at 11/2.
Today's Selections & Info
Starting Bank = 511.03
I have had a seriously hectic morning today so I'm going to post up my selections so far today and will then add a few more later on if anything catches my eye. I am also waiting on a call from my guy in the Hill's yard as well so will provide full write up's of their 3 runners today closer to the start of play.
2:00 York - DEAUVILLE FLYER (10/1) - 1pts e/w - CD winners who looks to be at the top of his game he finished 4th in this race last year and this has always been connections long term target. He has come in for a bit of early money and although the unexposed runners in the line up such as Sadeek's Song could be very dangerous I would be disappointed if this one didn't snatch a place.
2:30 York - TIMES UP (13/2) - 2.0pts e/w - CD winner who showed a smart level of form last season, he meets the majority of the key trends for the race and I would be surprised if there wasn't room for a bit of improvement off his current mark.
4:30 Newmarket - PINK DAMSEL (13/8) - 10pt win - I gave this horse a write up earlier on the week as she was one of the horses featured in my 2yo bloodstock bible last season. I fully expect this well related filly to go on to much better things this season and I also fully expect her to make a winning debut today.
5:55 Aintree - ONE TERM (9/4) - 8pt win - This horse is extremely progressive and is very highly thought of in the yard. McCoy takes the mount once again and although this looks like a strong race I fancy this one to record another win before being put away for the summer. Main dangers in my opinion will be HI GEORGE and he could rate as a value e/w alternative.
MORE BETS TO FOLLOW
UPDATE (14:40)
5:40 Dundalk - GALE FORCE TEN (9/4) - 8pt win - A horse from my 2yo bloodstock list for this year and one which will hopefully make a winning debut tonight.
I have had a seriously hectic morning today so I'm going to post up my selections so far today and will then add a few more later on if anything catches my eye. I am also waiting on a call from my guy in the Hill's yard as well so will provide full write up's of their 3 runners today closer to the start of play.
2:00 York - DEAUVILLE FLYER (10/1) - 1pts e/w - CD winners who looks to be at the top of his game he finished 4th in this race last year and this has always been connections long term target. He has come in for a bit of early money and although the unexposed runners in the line up such as Sadeek's Song could be very dangerous I would be disappointed if this one didn't snatch a place.
2:30 York - TIMES UP (13/2) - 2.0pts e/w - CD winner who showed a smart level of form last season, he meets the majority of the key trends for the race and I would be surprised if there wasn't room for a bit of improvement off his current mark.
4:30 Newmarket - PINK DAMSEL (13/8) - 10pt win - I gave this horse a write up earlier on the week as she was one of the horses featured in my 2yo bloodstock bible last season. I fully expect this well related filly to go on to much better things this season and I also fully expect her to make a winning debut today.
5:55 Aintree - ONE TERM (9/4) - 8pt win - This horse is extremely progressive and is very highly thought of in the yard. McCoy takes the mount once again and although this looks like a strong race I fancy this one to record another win before being put away for the summer. Main dangers in my opinion will be HI GEORGE and he could rate as a value e/w alternative.
MORE BETS TO FOLLOW
UPDATE (14:40)
5:40 Dundalk - GALE FORCE TEN (9/4) - 8pt win - A horse from my 2yo bloodstock list for this year and one which will hopefully make a winning debut tonight.
Thursday, 17 May 2012
4:55 Salisbury
FIGHT (12/1) - 1.50 pts e/w - was once a very expensive purchase, drops back in trip today for a new yard who applies blinkers and I think this horse is over priced and looks like a good e/w bet provided there are no more non runners.
Today's Maiden Madness
I absolutely love maiden races and find them an intriguing puzzle to try and solve. There looks to be some nice ones today at York, Newmarket and Salisbury and I would be intrigued to know if anyone has any fancies?
My selections are as follows;
1:40 Salisbury - RED HALO - Obviously the Hannon horse looks to have strong claims but the form of Red Halo's juvenile race should work out nicely and this 200,000 euros purchase should hold her own this season. She will be suited by a slight step up in trip and Dobb's has a very good record when riding for the yard. Looks like a reasonable alternative to the Fav.
2:40 Salisbury - This doesn't look like a great maiden and with Hannon holding a strong hand it will probably be one of his three horses that cross the line first, but definitely isn't a race I would want to be involved in financially.
3:45 Salisbury - KEENE DANCER - There was a lot to like about this horses debut last season and the form of the race looks pretty good now as Fugue looks like a very smart type. KD raced over 7f that day and that would definitely have been a minimum trip for this filly. With strong stamina ties in her pedigree she should improve today.
4:10 York - FUNK SOUL BROTHER - This horse feature on my 2yo bloodstock list for this year and is highly thought of in the Hill's yard. He has been putting in some good work at home and definitely has the ability to win first time out and his owners and breeder is apparently hopeful that this Cockney Rebel will prove to be the jewel in his crown. Obviously the race is very competitive but this horse has bundles of speed and should go close. Biggest danger without doubt will be DUST WHIRL who has solid form in the book and his sire has done well so far this year.
5:20 Newmarket - BECKY LOU - This doesn't look like a great maiden and those horse's with previous form don't look to be anything that special and with that in mind I've sided with a newcomer. Now the Noseda yard is very quiet at the moment which is strange because they usually get off to a quick start. Becky Lou is Jeremy's first Juvenile runner of the campaign and from a pedigree point of view she should have a place claim at least. Her Sire is currently operating at a 21% strike rate with his 3yo progeny in the last year, and hopefully Becky Lou can add to his tally, although the wide draw will make life difficult.
7:00 Newmarket - This is probably the most competitive race of the day and its incredibly difficult to solve. From a pedigree point of view 3 horse's look to stand out; ANOMALY, CONTINUUM and AL QATARI.
Anomaly has the advantage of race experience which should hold him in good stead and he is also very well breed (related to Advice and Iguazu Falls).
Continuum is out of one of racings leading dams and is related to Timepiece, Passage of Time and Father Time all of whom ran very well on their debuts but also made appearances as 2yo's. The horse holds some high profile entries and is apparently well thought of, but with the current price looking a bit slim from an e/w perspective, I would probably leave him alone this time.
Al Qatari (22/1) may prove to be a value e/w bet in this field and the main reason for my interest is because of the owner (Sheikh Mishal Al-Thani). Anyone that follows racing in the UAE will recognise the horse's colours and this man knows all about racing. As of yet he has only had 2 runners in the UK but there is no doubt that he is looking to invest in British racing in a big way. With that in mind, I am sure that Haggas is keen to ensure that his horses start winning some races and on the basis of Al Qatari's pedigree I would say he has a great chance of making an impression in this race.
7:35 Newmarket - BAYAN - This horse is my strongest bet of the day and if you want to find out why read my post from yesterday. I would be horrified if this one didn't at least place and it has come in for significant support in the market in the last few hours.
So there you have it, my canter through today's maidens. Although I actually only have money riding on 2 of the selections detailed above, I will be watching all of the races with my notebook at the ready, because I strongly believe that a few of the races today will churn up some classy performers.
My selections are as follows;
1:40 Salisbury - RED HALO - Obviously the Hannon horse looks to have strong claims but the form of Red Halo's juvenile race should work out nicely and this 200,000 euros purchase should hold her own this season. She will be suited by a slight step up in trip and Dobb's has a very good record when riding for the yard. Looks like a reasonable alternative to the Fav.
2:40 Salisbury - This doesn't look like a great maiden and with Hannon holding a strong hand it will probably be one of his three horses that cross the line first, but definitely isn't a race I would want to be involved in financially.
3:45 Salisbury - KEENE DANCER - There was a lot to like about this horses debut last season and the form of the race looks pretty good now as Fugue looks like a very smart type. KD raced over 7f that day and that would definitely have been a minimum trip for this filly. With strong stamina ties in her pedigree she should improve today.
4:10 York - FUNK SOUL BROTHER - This horse feature on my 2yo bloodstock list for this year and is highly thought of in the Hill's yard. He has been putting in some good work at home and definitely has the ability to win first time out and his owners and breeder is apparently hopeful that this Cockney Rebel will prove to be the jewel in his crown. Obviously the race is very competitive but this horse has bundles of speed and should go close. Biggest danger without doubt will be DUST WHIRL who has solid form in the book and his sire has done well so far this year.
5:20 Newmarket - BECKY LOU - This doesn't look like a great maiden and those horse's with previous form don't look to be anything that special and with that in mind I've sided with a newcomer. Now the Noseda yard is very quiet at the moment which is strange because they usually get off to a quick start. Becky Lou is Jeremy's first Juvenile runner of the campaign and from a pedigree point of view she should have a place claim at least. Her Sire is currently operating at a 21% strike rate with his 3yo progeny in the last year, and hopefully Becky Lou can add to his tally, although the wide draw will make life difficult.
7:00 Newmarket - This is probably the most competitive race of the day and its incredibly difficult to solve. From a pedigree point of view 3 horse's look to stand out; ANOMALY, CONTINUUM and AL QATARI.
Anomaly has the advantage of race experience which should hold him in good stead and he is also very well breed (related to Advice and Iguazu Falls).
Continuum is out of one of racings leading dams and is related to Timepiece, Passage of Time and Father Time all of whom ran very well on their debuts but also made appearances as 2yo's. The horse holds some high profile entries and is apparently well thought of, but with the current price looking a bit slim from an e/w perspective, I would probably leave him alone this time.
Al Qatari (22/1) may prove to be a value e/w bet in this field and the main reason for my interest is because of the owner (Sheikh Mishal Al-Thani). Anyone that follows racing in the UAE will recognise the horse's colours and this man knows all about racing. As of yet he has only had 2 runners in the UK but there is no doubt that he is looking to invest in British racing in a big way. With that in mind, I am sure that Haggas is keen to ensure that his horses start winning some races and on the basis of Al Qatari's pedigree I would say he has a great chance of making an impression in this race.
7:35 Newmarket - BAYAN - This horse is my strongest bet of the day and if you want to find out why read my post from yesterday. I would be horrified if this one didn't at least place and it has come in for significant support in the market in the last few hours.
So there you have it, my canter through today's maidens. Although I actually only have money riding on 2 of the selections detailed above, I will be watching all of the races with my notebook at the ready, because I strongly believe that a few of the races today will churn up some classy performers.
Today's Selections
Starting Bank = 515.03
Today's Selections
1:30 York - VERINCO (16/1) - 1pt win
2:10 Salisbury - SHESTHEMAN (4/1) - 5pt win
2:30 York - FENCING (5/1) - 4pt win
4:10 York - FUNK SOUL BROTHER (13/2) - 2pts e/w (info)
7:35 Newmarket - BAYAN (6/1) - 4pts e/w
8:35 Newmarket - YES CHEF - (11/1) - 1.5pts e/w
Total Stake = 25pts
Today's Selections
1:30 York - VERINCO (16/1) - 1pt win
2:10 Salisbury - SHESTHEMAN (4/1) - 5pt win
2:30 York - FENCING (5/1) - 4pt win
4:10 York - FUNK SOUL BROTHER (13/2) - 2pts e/w (info)
7:35 Newmarket - BAYAN (6/1) - 4pts e/w
8:35 Newmarket - YES CHEF - (11/1) - 1.5pts e/w
Total Stake = 25pts
Wednesday, 16 May 2012
Bath Info
Just had a phone call from my man in the Hill's camp who is at Bath tonight watching the racing. He has heard a strong word for an outsider in one of the handicap races later on the card and is currently in the process of trying to sure up the info. As soon as I hear back from him I will post up the information and judging from our initial convo it could present us with a very nice betting proposition.
I HAVE ALSO HAD A VERY STRONG WORD FOR TARTIFLETTE FROM A BOOKIE AT THE COURSE TODAY WHO RUNS IN THE LUCKY LAST AT YORK SO WILL BE INTERESTED TO SEE HOW THAT ONE RUNS.
I HAVE ALSO HAD A VERY STRONG WORD FOR TARTIFLETTE FROM A BOOKIE AT THE COURSE TODAY WHO RUNS IN THE LUCKY LAST AT YORK SO WILL BE INTERESTED TO SEE HOW THAT ONE RUNS.
2:40 Fontwell
PIPPA GREEN (7/4) - 18pt win - really fancied this one earlier but was waiting to see whether there was a late drift. Still looks very solid in the market and should run a big race and will hopefully be followed home by PALE RIDER (1PT RF)
Horse Alerts
Just a quick heads up. A bundle of 3yo's from my friends 2yo list last year hold entries in the next few days so I thought I would post them up in case people want to back them or add them to their alerts. My friends 2yo list for this season is currently operating at a 50% win/place rate so its well worth having a look at.
BAYAN - 210,000 gns colt out of Danehill Dancer, half brother to Catch me a dream, dam a winner over 1m 1f at 2 and rest of the family good middle distance performers. The horse had one run last season finishing 6th having missed the break. He was well supported that day and the step up in trip has to be regarded as a major positive.
IBTAHAJ - 200,000gns fily out of Invincible Spirit, half sister to plenty of high class winners and dam was also very handy (12f G3 winner). The horse ran recently and was well supported but found very little off the bridle. It is likely that she needed the run and a slight step up in trip should show her in a better light. As a result of that last run she should also be quite a nice price when she makes a reappearance (numerous entries).
PINK DAMSEL - This 600,000 gns purchase was given a five star bloodstock rating by my friend last year but never made it on to a race track as a 2yo. This horse should have all the makings of a very nice middle distance performer and I have heard some very positive comments about her in the last few weeks. She holds and entry at Newmarket on the 18th as well as Newbury on the 19th and has also been entered for the Oaks.
POLY POMONA - This expensive Green Desert progeny was also held in high regard by my bloodstock expert but was another horse who failed to make an appearance as a 2yo. She is a horse who's optimum trip should be about a mile and hailing from the Hannon camp she should be one to watch this season. She currently holds an entry in a maiden at Windsor on the 21st as well as an entry the Tattersalls Millions.
SEVENTH SIGN - This horse like PD was one of only 3 horses to be award a 5 star rating last season. He is a pivotal colt out of a Arazi mare and is related to numerous high profile winners including Breeders cup winner LAHUDOOD. Out of all the unraced 3yo on last years list this is probably the horse I am most excited about. He is currently entered in a maiden at Thirsk on the 19th over 1m 4f and I fully expect this horse to make a winning debut.
WIDYAAN - This horse raced once as a 2yo and subsequently saw his value increase by over £200,000. He appeared recently in a class 5 maiden over 10f where he finished 2nd behind Gabriel The Great. He has been gelded since last season so obviously connections have lowered their sights slightly but I still believe this horse will win a maiden and is entered at Newbury on the 19th.
WAS - For me this horse could prove to be one of the best horses of its generation and that is reflected in its purchase price which was a whopping 1,200,000 gns. The horse had one race last season and won with ease at a price of 9/2 which earned me a small fortune. Today she makes a return at Naas and will probably go off at around 6/4-Evens. She has been the subject of plenty of positive reports from her trainer and despite having a set back I would be amazed if this horse didn't win a high profile race at some point this season. Today may be the best day to catch her as far as a decent price is concerned.
BAYAN - 210,000 gns colt out of Danehill Dancer, half brother to Catch me a dream, dam a winner over 1m 1f at 2 and rest of the family good middle distance performers. The horse had one run last season finishing 6th having missed the break. He was well supported that day and the step up in trip has to be regarded as a major positive.
IBTAHAJ - 200,000gns fily out of Invincible Spirit, half sister to plenty of high class winners and dam was also very handy (12f G3 winner). The horse ran recently and was well supported but found very little off the bridle. It is likely that she needed the run and a slight step up in trip should show her in a better light. As a result of that last run she should also be quite a nice price when she makes a reappearance (numerous entries).
PINK DAMSEL - This 600,000 gns purchase was given a five star bloodstock rating by my friend last year but never made it on to a race track as a 2yo. This horse should have all the makings of a very nice middle distance performer and I have heard some very positive comments about her in the last few weeks. She holds and entry at Newmarket on the 18th as well as Newbury on the 19th and has also been entered for the Oaks.
POLY POMONA - This expensive Green Desert progeny was also held in high regard by my bloodstock expert but was another horse who failed to make an appearance as a 2yo. She is a horse who's optimum trip should be about a mile and hailing from the Hannon camp she should be one to watch this season. She currently holds an entry in a maiden at Windsor on the 21st as well as an entry the Tattersalls Millions.
SEVENTH SIGN - This horse like PD was one of only 3 horses to be award a 5 star rating last season. He is a pivotal colt out of a Arazi mare and is related to numerous high profile winners including Breeders cup winner LAHUDOOD. Out of all the unraced 3yo on last years list this is probably the horse I am most excited about. He is currently entered in a maiden at Thirsk on the 19th over 1m 4f and I fully expect this horse to make a winning debut.
WIDYAAN - This horse raced once as a 2yo and subsequently saw his value increase by over £200,000. He appeared recently in a class 5 maiden over 10f where he finished 2nd behind Gabriel The Great. He has been gelded since last season so obviously connections have lowered their sights slightly but I still believe this horse will win a maiden and is entered at Newbury on the 19th.
WAS - For me this horse could prove to be one of the best horses of its generation and that is reflected in its purchase price which was a whopping 1,200,000 gns. The horse had one race last season and won with ease at a price of 9/2 which earned me a small fortune. Today she makes a return at Naas and will probably go off at around 6/4-Evens. She has been the subject of plenty of positive reports from her trainer and despite having a set back I would be amazed if this horse didn't win a high profile race at some point this season. Today may be the best day to catch her as far as a decent price is concerned.
Today's Selections and Info
The more I look at today's cards the more I think that its probably a day to keep my money in my pocket. The card at York looks to be very competitive and and although I fancy a few runners in the handicaps and have received a strong bit of info, I definitely won't be laying too much cash on the meeting.
Today's Selections
1:30 York - LABARINTO (8/1) - 2pts e/w
2:00 York - NEW PLANET (16/1) - 1pt e/w
2:00 York - MEDICI TIME (50/1) - 0.50pt e/w
2:30 York - TWIRL (5/4) - 12pt win
2:10 Fontewell - CATSPAN (9/4) - 10pt win
2:40 Fontwell - PALE RIDER (9/1) - 1pt e/w
6:40 Bath - LUCKY BEGGAR (EVENS) - 15pt win (INFO)
7:20 Naas - WAS (2/1) - 8pt win.
Info Selections
At the moment despite receiving positive endorsements, I have chosen not to back any of the following info selections today although I may have a very small stakes e/w lucky 15;
2:00 York - Shropshire
4:10 York - Cumbrian Crac
5:05 Ling - Wheres Susie
8:40 Bath - Shades of Grey
Today's Selections
1:30 York - LABARINTO (8/1) - 2pts e/w
2:00 York - NEW PLANET (16/1) - 1pt e/w
2:00 York - MEDICI TIME (50/1) - 0.50pt e/w
2:30 York - TWIRL (5/4) - 12pt win
2:10 Fontewell - CATSPAN (9/4) - 10pt win
2:40 Fontwell - PALE RIDER (9/1) - 1pt e/w
6:40 Bath - LUCKY BEGGAR (EVENS) - 15pt win (INFO)
7:20 Naas - WAS (2/1) - 8pt win.
Info Selections
At the moment despite receiving positive endorsements, I have chosen not to back any of the following info selections today although I may have a very small stakes e/w lucky 15;
2:00 York - Shropshire
4:10 York - Cumbrian Crac
5:05 Ling - Wheres Susie
8:40 Bath - Shades of Grey
Tuesday, 15 May 2012
Early Selection For Tomorrow
A friend of mine has just called me after having a very large bet on CATSPAN in the 2:10 at Fontwell. The guy knows the connections well and says that the horse is fancied to win tomorrow and will then probably be turned out under a penalty. I have had a quick look at the race and the horse must surely have a great chance of winning the race from a form point of view and is also the only real jumps bred horse in the race. I've taken advantage of the 85/40 currently avaliable and will be having 10pts on the win.
Lucky Last
Today has been a very good day for the blog as we have recorded some nice wins and a healthy profit. I've always been told to quit when I'm ahead but I where would the fun in that be. I have had a good look at this race and although there is info being banded about for Musnad and Diktat I have decided to go for an e/w bet on a big outsider and have backed MY SON MAX e.w at 16/1 - 1.5pts e/w.
Total Bets Today = 103 points
Total Return so far = 141 points
Current Bank = 548.53 with one bet in play.
Total Bets Today = 103 points
Total Return so far = 141 points
Current Bank = 548.53 with one bet in play.
8:50 - Basseterre info
The Hills horse is very well fancied today and is expected to get his preparation back on track. Connections were incredibly frustrated by events LTO and he needs to win well tonight if he is to go ahead with his planned schedule. My source has heard that a few of his opposition are also fancied tonight but he said that today is all about backing your own horses ability and if Bass can take his homework on to the Kempton course tonight then he should be very hard to beat. I got 9/2 earlier in the day and had a 10 point win
4:30 Beverly
DARING GRACE (12/1) - 2pts e/w - two horses at the head of the market will obviously be hard to beat but it wouldnt be the first time that this horse's connection have upset the apple cart.
Today's Selections
Starting Bank = 510.53
1:50 Hereford - MONTURGEON (5/4) - 20pt win - I really fancied this horse after looking through the race last night but was reluctant to back him due to the presence of JOSEPH MERCER. That horse has now been withdrawn and therefore this now looks like a very appealing bet. The horse may have turned into a bit of a place specialist but the form of his races are very strong compared to the rest of the field and while the Nicholl's runner is a danger he doesn't look that well handicapped and after a bad fall LTO I wouldn't be surprised if he is given an easy ride. With that in mind those looking for an e/w alternative to the fav should pay close attention to LIKEAROLLINGSTONE who may show some improvement for his new yard.
3:30 Beverly - BRIDGEHAMPTON (4/1) - 8pt win - This horse carries a lot of stable confidence behind it and should win today if all goes to plan (INFO).
8:40 Southwell - MADAME BLAVATSKY (9/1) - 1pt e/w - This horse ran some good races earlier in the season when she was a 3yo and that was at a time when the stable was in poor form. They yard have subsequently taken a break and haven't had a runner since February. This filly looks to have a bright future ahead of her and if she has bulked up a bit in the last few months she could prove to be very competitive here today, just a shame that there are only 7 runners.
That's it for today but I'm still waiting for a call about the Hill's runner although my initial thoughts would be that the Kempton race looks like a very difficult puzzle to solve.
1:50 Hereford - MONTURGEON (5/4) - 20pt win - I really fancied this horse after looking through the race last night but was reluctant to back him due to the presence of JOSEPH MERCER. That horse has now been withdrawn and therefore this now looks like a very appealing bet. The horse may have turned into a bit of a place specialist but the form of his races are very strong compared to the rest of the field and while the Nicholl's runner is a danger he doesn't look that well handicapped and after a bad fall LTO I wouldn't be surprised if he is given an easy ride. With that in mind those looking for an e/w alternative to the fav should pay close attention to LIKEAROLLINGSTONE who may show some improvement for his new yard.
3:30 Beverly - BRIDGEHAMPTON (4/1) - 8pt win - This horse carries a lot of stable confidence behind it and should win today if all goes to plan (INFO).
8:40 Southwell - MADAME BLAVATSKY (9/1) - 1pt e/w - This horse ran some good races earlier in the season when she was a 3yo and that was at a time when the stable was in poor form. They yard have subsequently taken a break and haven't had a runner since February. This filly looks to have a bright future ahead of her and if she has bulked up a bit in the last few months she could prove to be very competitive here today, just a shame that there are only 7 runners.
That's it for today but I'm still waiting for a call about the Hill's runner although my initial thoughts would be that the Kempton race looks like a very difficult puzzle to solve.
Monday, 14 May 2012
Info Update
8:50 -CNOC AN CHEO (33/1)- This horse is apparently thought to be a good e/w bet. The trainer knows all about this horses family and is confident that the horse will put its PTP runs behind him today. His breeding suggests that he should be capable of winning a bumper and although the FAV will be incredibly difficult to beat connections are hopeful that this one will at least run into a place. For me it looks to have a reasonable shout and I've gone for 1.5pts e/w.
4:15 Wolverhapton
CYMERIAD (5/1) - 5pt win - I have taken a long look at this race and quite frankly I can't see any reason why SYLVIA is favourite, I know she has the best past form in the race but her sires strike rate at the track is terrible. The second favourite looks interesting but nothing about her pedigree or her past race suggests that she is a sprinter. For me the value bet is Cymeriad, she has the pedigree of an out and out sprinter, her sire has a good record at the track and compared to the rest of the trainers Easterby actually has an ok record at maidens at the track. All things considered despite being a debutant I think this horse has a solid chance and I'm happy to take a punt at the current price.
Irish Info
My friend who has served us well in the last few weeks has a runner at Killarney tonight which has been primed. As soon as I receive the call I will post it up together with his comments and advised stakes.
ANTI POST INFO
16 May 2012
3:00 YORK - DEFINIGHTLY (16/1) - Very strong word received for this horse after the withdrawal of the stables two other entries due to the ground. Connections will be performing rain dances in the next few days as the softer it gets the better this horse will be. With heavy rain forecast the price of this one is certain to shorten and therefore ew anti-post bets would seem to be the way forward.
4:45 Wolves
As you all know I received some info for the Botti runner (Travelling) in this race earlier today and had a small win bet. I have had along hard look at the race now though and I personally think that MOODY DANCER (20/1) is massively over priced.
The horse holds an entry in the Tattersalls Millions (run over 1m 2f) and steps up in trip today for the first time. The horse was very highly tried as a 2yo but showed very little in some hotbed maidens and was subsequently awarded a mark of 65. She put in a disappointing performance on her first race this season but she was entitled to need the run and that should have brushed away any cobwebs for today's race.
On the basis of her pedigree she should be capable of getting 1m 2f as she is out of Cape Cross and his progeny have a strong record over middle distances. In the last 3 years this sire also shows some very impressive stats on the AW.
RACE DISTANCE = 30 runs, 5 wins. 4 places (17%)
HORSE AGE = 159 runs, 33 wins, 39 places (21%)
COURSE = 121 runs, 23 wins, 28 places (19%)
The only Sire presented in the field today with better overall figures than Cape Cross from the same sample is HOLY ROMAN EMPEROR (Silvas Romana).
The trainer's record also adds another dimension to the horses profile. William Muir is a better than average trainer on the AW and has operated at a 14% strike rate (P/L +68) in the last 5 seasons at Wolves. In races over distances between 9-10f with 3yo runners on the AW his record is enhanced, as he currently holds an 18% strike rate with his runners in this discipline. Furthermore, 37% of all of the trainers winners have been ridden by today's jockey (Martin Dwyer) who heads to the meeting for two rides.
The final matter to take into account is the horse's performance in the market. Although 20/1 is available with some firms the majority have aired on the side of caution and are offering around 12/1. The horse has also come in for some money on the exchanges and is now available at around 18/1 but was previously being backed at prices as high as 30/1+. There has also been a move on the place betting which has seen the horse shorten from prices as high as 8/1 into approximately 3/1-4/1 now.
All things considered I believe that this horse represents a good value e/w bet at the current prices and I will be having a 1pt e/w bet together with a CST with Travelling and Silver Marizah. Obviously there are some fancied runners in the race but I wouldn't be surprised if this horse has slipped under the radar and I will be very intrigued to see how she performs in the next few hours.
The horse holds an entry in the Tattersalls Millions (run over 1m 2f) and steps up in trip today for the first time. The horse was very highly tried as a 2yo but showed very little in some hotbed maidens and was subsequently awarded a mark of 65. She put in a disappointing performance on her first race this season but she was entitled to need the run and that should have brushed away any cobwebs for today's race.
On the basis of her pedigree she should be capable of getting 1m 2f as she is out of Cape Cross and his progeny have a strong record over middle distances. In the last 3 years this sire also shows some very impressive stats on the AW.
RACE DISTANCE = 30 runs, 5 wins. 4 places (17%)
HORSE AGE = 159 runs, 33 wins, 39 places (21%)
COURSE = 121 runs, 23 wins, 28 places (19%)
The only Sire presented in the field today with better overall figures than Cape Cross from the same sample is HOLY ROMAN EMPEROR (Silvas Romana).
The trainer's record also adds another dimension to the horses profile. William Muir is a better than average trainer on the AW and has operated at a 14% strike rate (P/L +68) in the last 5 seasons at Wolves. In races over distances between 9-10f with 3yo runners on the AW his record is enhanced, as he currently holds an 18% strike rate with his runners in this discipline. Furthermore, 37% of all of the trainers winners have been ridden by today's jockey (Martin Dwyer) who heads to the meeting for two rides.
The final matter to take into account is the horse's performance in the market. Although 20/1 is available with some firms the majority have aired on the side of caution and are offering around 12/1. The horse has also come in for some money on the exchanges and is now available at around 18/1 but was previously being backed at prices as high as 30/1+. There has also been a move on the place betting which has seen the horse shorten from prices as high as 8/1 into approximately 3/1-4/1 now.
All things considered I believe that this horse represents a good value e/w bet at the current prices and I will be having a 1pt e/w bet together with a CST with Travelling and Silver Marizah. Obviously there are some fancied runners in the race but I wouldn't be surprised if this horse has slipped under the radar and I will be very intrigued to see how she performs in the next few hours.
Today's Selections
Once again I am a bit rushed for time this morning so will just be posting up today's tips and stakes rather than providing detailed write ups.
Starting Bank = 536.33
2:00 Redcar - EASTERN DESTINY (6/1) - 3pts e/w (** Rating)
4:10 Windsor - KING TORUS (4/1 BOG) - 6pt win (*** Rating)
7:50 Killarney - TRANQUIL SEA (9/2) - 6pt win (*** Rating)
INFO
I have received a few info horses today but I am slightly reluctant to back any of them as there seems to be money around for a few horses. I will detail them below and people can make their own decisions as to whether to back them or not.
4:15 Wolverhampton - TRAVELLING (4/1) - 5pt win - This will be my only info bet of the day and the word was very strong for this horse.
5:40 Windsor - FANTACISE - Rio's Pearl is a horse on my 2yo watch list so I will not be following this info as I expect her to win the race.
8:10 Windsor - WREATHS OF EMPIRE - Fancied to run a much better race today than LTO but with three horses at the head of the market being punted even an e/w bet looks risky.
Sunday, 13 May 2012
INFO - 4:50 Worcester
SPANISH ARCH (2/1) - Is fully expected to win this race before being put away for the summer. The horse carries maximum stable confidence and plenty in yard have backed this one early doors. The price is sure to shorten in the next hour and I would be amazed if the price stayed at 2/1. I have had 8pts on the win and have also had a 2pt double with MIDNIGHT MUSIC (3/1) in the 4:15 at Leopardstown.
Total Stake = 10pts
Total Stake = 10pts
3:10 Plumpton
MOSSINI (4/1) - 5pt win - This horse has always been a chaser in the making and the step up in trip today should really suit him.Trainer has a good strike rate at the track as does the jockey and I expect this horse to be very competitive. Lets hope I can make it 3 out of 3 today!
INFO HORSE
TURN OVER SIVOLA (7/2) - 6pt win - Horse is apparently in good shape and has schooled well. He has previously run in some good bumpers and connections believe that the horse will be better suited to hurdles and a good overall gallop. With that in mind they may even look to make the running if nothing goes to the front (other king runner bit unsteady). The ground is a bit of an unknown but they are hopeful that he will handle it as he his action suggests that he will be ok. Obviously they respect the William's runner who has been well supported but they strongly believe that their horse has a shout.
Tomorrows Early Selections (13.05.12)
Not sure how much time I'm going to have tomorrow so I'm going to post my selections up now and hopefully I will be able to get on at some point in the morning and do some detailed write ups.
Starting Bank - 535.33
2:40 Longchamp - BEAUTY PARLOR (4/5) - 25pt win (***** Rating)
3:10 Longchamp - DABIRSIM (13/8) - 15pt win (**** Rating)
3:15 Leopardstown - REMEMBER ALEXANDER (8/1 BOG) - 4.5pts e/w (** Rating)
1 E/W Double
2:40 Longchamp - AZEVILLE (33/1)
3:10 Longchamp - AMARON (25/1)
Total Stake - 50 points
That completes tomorrows selections but I am waiting to hear from a friend of mine who has a horse running tomorrow. If its fancied and conditions are right then they will be backing it and I will post it up here before the off providing that I can get on to the blog.
Best of luck with all your selections tomorrow and lets hope for a profitable day.
Starting Bank - 535.33
2:40 Longchamp - BEAUTY PARLOR (4/5) - 25pt win (***** Rating)
3:10 Longchamp - DABIRSIM (13/8) - 15pt win (**** Rating)
3:15 Leopardstown - REMEMBER ALEXANDER (8/1 BOG) - 4.5pts e/w (** Rating)
1 E/W Double
2:40 Longchamp - AZEVILLE (33/1)
3:10 Longchamp - AMARON (25/1)
Total Stake - 50 points
That completes tomorrows selections but I am waiting to hear from a friend of mine who has a horse running tomorrow. If its fancied and conditions are right then they will be backing it and I will post it up here before the off providing that I can get on to the blog.
Best of luck with all your selections tomorrow and lets hope for a profitable day.
Saturday, 12 May 2012
Today's Final Score (12.05.12)
2 nice winners today (4/5 and 8/1) ensured a profit on the day and hopefully with the ground improving I can get things back on track. To be honest though, with the terrible conditions we have seen in the last 2 weeks I'm happy to still be in profit!
Starting Bank = 511.30
Total Bets = 81pts
Total Return = 105.00
Bank for tomorrow = 535.33
Starting Bank = 511.30
Total Bets = 81pts
Total Return = 105.00
Bank for tomorrow = 535.33
8:45 Thirsk
HALF A CROWN (8/1) - 2pts e/w
1. Has a 25% win rate over 6f returning a P/L of 49.00
2. Jockey has ridden the horse 3 times finishing 1st, 3rd and 4th
3. Horse has a 20% win rate when running in fields of between 12-15 runners
4. Horse performs very well on flat tracks and has won 3 times from 14 runs
5. Backing all of the trainers runners over 5-6 furlongs would have returned a P/L of +45
6. Owner has a 16% strike rate in Handicaps (5 wins 32 runs)
7. The horse has positive form against no fewer than 4 of the horses in the field (Northern Bolt, Secret City, Bond Fan and Sea Salt)
All things considered this looks like a good ew bet in what is a wide open affair. Obviously the horse is running of a high mark but its interesting that he was turned out quickly and I believe connections may feel that he has further room for improvement and in a close knit handicap his jockey's claim could make all the difference.
1. Has a 25% win rate over 6f returning a P/L of 49.00
2. Jockey has ridden the horse 3 times finishing 1st, 3rd and 4th
3. Horse has a 20% win rate when running in fields of between 12-15 runners
4. Horse performs very well on flat tracks and has won 3 times from 14 runs
5. Backing all of the trainers runners over 5-6 furlongs would have returned a P/L of +45
6. Owner has a 16% strike rate in Handicaps (5 wins 32 runs)
7. The horse has positive form against no fewer than 4 of the horses in the field (Northern Bolt, Secret City, Bond Fan and Sea Salt)
All things considered this looks like a good ew bet in what is a wide open affair. Obviously the horse is running of a high mark but its interesting that he was turned out quickly and I believe connections may feel that he has further room for improvement and in a close knit handicap his jockey's claim could make all the difference.
7:05 Warwick
OUTSIDE THE BOX (8/1) - 4pts e/w - No info here but I have had a long hard look at the race and I think this horse has a real live wire chance. The form of a few of his races looks quite strong and he will handle the ground and the trip. The jockey booking also catches the eye and he has come in for some support on the exchanges. I will also be having a 1pt e/w CSF with MEXICAN BOB.
3:45 Lingfield
CAI SHEN (10/3) - EXPECTED TO BE DIFFICULT TO BEAT IN THIS ONE. JOCKEY VERY CONFIDENT BUT DOES FEAR THE GODOLPHIN FIRST STRING. WITH THAT IN MIND I HAVE JUST HAD A SMALL 3PT WIN BET
Haydock Info
3:40 - Charm School (9/1) - 2.pts e/w - thought to be well treated, should run a good race and holds strong place claims. Lingfield info horse to follow very soon.
White Frost also fancied ew but to risky for me.
Today's Selections
Starting Bank = 511.33
Having trouble with my internet this morning so it has taken me about 1:30 hours to actually get these selections posted so they better run well!
2:20 Ascot - AIKEN (4/5) - 25 pt win (***** Rating)
3:10 Lingfield - SHANTARAM (15/8) - 15pt win (**** Rating)
4:35 Ascot - MORETTA BLANCHE (8/1) - 5pts e/w (*** Rating)
4:50 Haydock - ASSIZES (3/1) - 10pt win (info)
Big info horse at Lingfield coming up later in the day, same source as Kingsgate Choice but the horse will be released literally minutes before the off under the instructions of the source.
Having trouble with my internet this morning so it has taken me about 1:30 hours to actually get these selections posted so they better run well!
2:20 Ascot - AIKEN (4/5) - 25 pt win (***** Rating)
3:10 Lingfield - SHANTARAM (15/8) - 15pt win (**** Rating)
4:35 Ascot - MORETTA BLANCHE (8/1) - 5pts e/w (*** Rating)
4:50 Haydock - ASSIZES (3/1) - 10pt win (info)
Big info horse at Lingfield coming up later in the day, same source as Kingsgate Choice but the horse will be released literally minutes before the off under the instructions of the source.
Friday, 11 May 2012
8:55 Hamilton
INFO - No 6 (ew) - 2pts ew. (on my phone and finding it difficult to write up but this one is fancied to place.I
Rest of the card at Lingers
Both of the Charlton runners are apparently fancied to at least place in the 3:15 and 5:30 the info comes second hand from a friend of mine who is at the track today and has been chatting to a representative of the stable. Obviously this is far from top notch info and therefore I wouldn't get too carried away but I'm going to have a small stakes e/w double and a win bet on Selfra
3:15 - SELFARA (5/1)
5:30 - LOVAGE (9/2)
1pt e/w Double
3 pt win on Selfara
3:15 - SELFARA (5/1)
5:30 - LOVAGE (9/2)
1pt e/w Double
3 pt win on Selfara
2:45 Lingfield
KINGSGATE CHOICE (10/3) - 6pt win - info but I am opposing the strong word received from the Hill's yard about Desert Strike which may prove to be very foolish.
Today's Selections
Not much time for detailed write up's today so will just be posting my selections together with the advised bets.
Starting Bank = 527.33
Singles
1:25 Market - MARCHAND D'ARGENT (5/2) - 8pt win - Horse and trainer in good form, despite the penalty he is still well handicapped on his old form and Johnston rides the course better than anyone.
1:55 Market - SAVANT BLEU (9/2) - 4pt win - Horse won well last time out despite not looking to enjoy the soft ground. He has received a 5lb rise for that effort but Alan Bailey usually gets plenty of improvement out of these kind of horses and the booking of Maguire could be the making of this horse. Biggest danger ENROLLER and it maybe worth having a small RF with that runner.
2:25 Chester - KINGS DESIRE (11/4) - 6pt win - This is a horse which I really like and he has shown a great degree of promise on his first 2 runs. If Bonfire had still be in the line up I probably would have left the race alone but following his withdrawal I strongly believe that this one has a great chance.
5:40 Cork - CROISULTAN (4/6) - 20 pt win - I received a strong message for this horse in its last race and it ran a great race to finish second in a hotbed G3 at 10/1. Today's race looks a million times easier than that and with Smullen once again taking the ride and with conditions to suit this horse has banker material written all over it and is very well fancied.
6:05 Hamilton - DA' QUONDE (3/1) - 4pt win - I don't usually like backing horses in apprentice races but this one looks to have solid claims. The horse is lightly raced and her past form looks to be working out nicely,she is proven over the distance, will like the ground and should be difficult to beat.
2pt multiple
2:25 Chester - KINGS DESIRE (11/4)
3:05 Chester - BALLESTEROS (15/8)
So that concludes today's selections but I'm waiting on confirmation of two info horses are Lingfield so I will post them up as soon as I hear anything. Elsewhere my Irish contact has heard that ECHOS OF HISTORY (5/1) is expected to run a big race on his comeback appearance in the 7:15 at Cork but I will see how it fairs in the market in the next few hours before backing it.
Starting Bank = 527.33
Singles
1:25 Market - MARCHAND D'ARGENT (5/2) - 8pt win - Horse and trainer in good form, despite the penalty he is still well handicapped on his old form and Johnston rides the course better than anyone.
1:55 Market - SAVANT BLEU (9/2) - 4pt win - Horse won well last time out despite not looking to enjoy the soft ground. He has received a 5lb rise for that effort but Alan Bailey usually gets plenty of improvement out of these kind of horses and the booking of Maguire could be the making of this horse. Biggest danger ENROLLER and it maybe worth having a small RF with that runner.
2:25 Chester - KINGS DESIRE (11/4) - 6pt win - This is a horse which I really like and he has shown a great degree of promise on his first 2 runs. If Bonfire had still be in the line up I probably would have left the race alone but following his withdrawal I strongly believe that this one has a great chance.
5:40 Cork - CROISULTAN (4/6) - 20 pt win - I received a strong message for this horse in its last race and it ran a great race to finish second in a hotbed G3 at 10/1. Today's race looks a million times easier than that and with Smullen once again taking the ride and with conditions to suit this horse has banker material written all over it and is very well fancied.
6:05 Hamilton - DA' QUONDE (3/1) - 4pt win - I don't usually like backing horses in apprentice races but this one looks to have solid claims. The horse is lightly raced and her past form looks to be working out nicely,she is proven over the distance, will like the ground and should be difficult to beat.
2pt multiple
2:25 Chester - KINGS DESIRE (11/4)
3:05 Chester - BALLESTEROS (15/8)
So that concludes today's selections but I'm waiting on confirmation of two info horses are Lingfield so I will post them up as soon as I hear anything. Elsewhere my Irish contact has heard that ECHOS OF HISTORY (5/1) is expected to run a big race on his comeback appearance in the 7:15 at Cork but I will see how it fairs in the market in the next few hours before backing it.
Thursday, 10 May 2012
6:35 Wincanton
WEBBERY'S DREAM (6/1) - 5 pt win - Unfortunately there is no e/w value due to the number of runners in the line up but I have a feeling this horse may upset both of the horses at the head of the market. The form of his chase races is very very strong and his trainer usually does best with Hurdlers which would suggest that he should be ok reverting to that obstacle today. He run's off a bottom weight and also has the assistance of a claimer, who is good value for his 3lb claim and the horse also enjoys a bit of cut. All things considered I'm happy to have a punt on this one.
This will be the last bet of the day unless I get a call from my guy in Ireland about another runner at Clonmel.
I will see you all tomorrow.
This will be the last bet of the day unless I get a call from my guy in Ireland about another runner at Clonmel.
I will see you all tomorrow.
Today so far
Well so far today has been absolute nightmare and I need my two info selections to run good races now. I will also be having a long look at the Yarmouth, Clonmel and Wincanton cards tonight to see if anything catches my eye but it may be that the current conditions put me off backing anything else today.
Today's Selections (10.05.12)
Today's racing has already been decimated by the weather and although I have found a few nice prospects I will be reducing my stakes as I have a feeling that we will see a few upsets today.
1:35 Chester- CALL TO REASON (10pt stake) - See earlier thread - There are now no fewer than 4 non runners in the race which is very disappointing but in some respects in makes me more confident about my selection as she now looks like 1 of only 2 runners in the field who will really appreciate the soft ground. Obviously my bets from last night will now be subject to reductions but at least betfair will still be paying out on 3 places.
2:05 Chester- GLEN'S DIAMOND - 3pt E/W - Despite the small field this is a very difficult race to solve, Questioning is obviously running out of his skin at the moment and is horse on a serious upward curve but he had a very hard race in terrible conditions 13 days ago and I just feel that this race may come too soon. Similar comments can be made with regard to Wigmore Hall who is clearly the class act in the field on OR, but the ground has to be a major concern and I'm actually surprised that connections have left him in. So when you discard those two your left with three - four horses.
In my opinion Myplaceater may have a shout if he bounces back but backing him would be incredibly risky as he has shown nothing of any note in the last few months. The two Godolphin horse's should both be carefully considered but I have my reservations about the Suroor yard at the moment as the majority of their horses are definitely needing the run. Despite that, Hunters Light is a major danger in this field, as a Dubawi progeny he will love the ground and also stays a bit further than 1m 2f which will be helpful as he comes from a wide berth. Irrespective of the positives I can't be backing the horse at that kind of price as it just looks too short. The Botti newcomer is obviously very interesting, he had some reasonable form in Meydan, is proven on the ground, is well drawn and well supported but I have my reservations about the horse and if I'm honest I'm slightly surprised that Botti didn't book Demuro as he's in the country. On the basis of his pedigree MARCET will not want to go any further than 1m 2f and therefore in today's conditions I believe he may be vulnerable.
So that leaves GLEN'S DIAMOND and this highly thought of individual could prove to be the value bet in the race at a current price of 10/1. Firstly he is already a G3 winner, secondly he handles soft ground, thirdly he stays further than 1m 2f, Fourthly, he is well drawn and finally he is a CD winner. When you take all those factors into account, I can't see any reason why this horse is such a big price and to me the bookies may be looking at a substantial payout if this one does the business because you can bet your bottom dollar that the yard will be lumping on at that kind of price if he is ready to win again.
2:35 Chester - DAVID LIVINGSTONE (11/4) - 12pt win - This horse is probably my NAP of today and although Joseph lost me money on a shortie yesterday I don't think he will make the same mistake twice. DL is proven on soft/heavy ground and comes here in fine form despite finishing behind CALL TO BATTLE last time out at Leopardstown. The form of that race doesn't concern me as its clear from the replays that the horse was never really put in a position to win the race. When you consider that the trainer has taken the prize in this race three times in the last 5 years, it's probably fair to assume that this has been the horse's target for a while. Obviously its a very tight knit affair and I know that the Hill's yard fancy their horse, although they do have reservations about the ground, and MINIMIZE RISK was a horse from my horse's to follow list last year, so I have mixed feelings about opposing him but for me David Livingstone's preparation has been better and whereas Minimize, Model Pupil, Call to Battle & Mickdaam all had tough races less than 30 days ago, DL had nothing more than a gentle canter to the line and I believe that will be the difference today.
3:40 Chester - LUCKY BEGGAR (5/1) - 1 pt win - The Hill's yard really fancy this horse but the draw has significantly dampened their enthusiasm. They still believe that he may be good enough to over come it and for that reason I'm having a small win bet, but I believe it will be a seriously tough task.
INFO
5:40 Clonmel - JACKSONSLADY (11/1) - 3pts e/w - This one comes from my usual source in Ireland and the advice was to back e/w as he has also heard that HE'LLBEREMEMBERED is quietly fancied. I've had a look at the race myself and irrespective of the info I would have been backing Jacksonslady and this looks to be a very strong e/w bet.
1:35 Chester- CALL TO REASON (10pt stake) - See earlier thread - There are now no fewer than 4 non runners in the race which is very disappointing but in some respects in makes me more confident about my selection as she now looks like 1 of only 2 runners in the field who will really appreciate the soft ground. Obviously my bets from last night will now be subject to reductions but at least betfair will still be paying out on 3 places.
2:05 Chester- GLEN'S DIAMOND - 3pt E/W - Despite the small field this is a very difficult race to solve, Questioning is obviously running out of his skin at the moment and is horse on a serious upward curve but he had a very hard race in terrible conditions 13 days ago and I just feel that this race may come too soon. Similar comments can be made with regard to Wigmore Hall who is clearly the class act in the field on OR, but the ground has to be a major concern and I'm actually surprised that connections have left him in. So when you discard those two your left with three - four horses.
In my opinion Myplaceater may have a shout if he bounces back but backing him would be incredibly risky as he has shown nothing of any note in the last few months. The two Godolphin horse's should both be carefully considered but I have my reservations about the Suroor yard at the moment as the majority of their horses are definitely needing the run. Despite that, Hunters Light is a major danger in this field, as a Dubawi progeny he will love the ground and also stays a bit further than 1m 2f which will be helpful as he comes from a wide berth. Irrespective of the positives I can't be backing the horse at that kind of price as it just looks too short. The Botti newcomer is obviously very interesting, he had some reasonable form in Meydan, is proven on the ground, is well drawn and well supported but I have my reservations about the horse and if I'm honest I'm slightly surprised that Botti didn't book Demuro as he's in the country. On the basis of his pedigree MARCET will not want to go any further than 1m 2f and therefore in today's conditions I believe he may be vulnerable.
So that leaves GLEN'S DIAMOND and this highly thought of individual could prove to be the value bet in the race at a current price of 10/1. Firstly he is already a G3 winner, secondly he handles soft ground, thirdly he stays further than 1m 2f, Fourthly, he is well drawn and finally he is a CD winner. When you take all those factors into account, I can't see any reason why this horse is such a big price and to me the bookies may be looking at a substantial payout if this one does the business because you can bet your bottom dollar that the yard will be lumping on at that kind of price if he is ready to win again.
2:35 Chester - DAVID LIVINGSTONE (11/4) - 12pt win - This horse is probably my NAP of today and although Joseph lost me money on a shortie yesterday I don't think he will make the same mistake twice. DL is proven on soft/heavy ground and comes here in fine form despite finishing behind CALL TO BATTLE last time out at Leopardstown. The form of that race doesn't concern me as its clear from the replays that the horse was never really put in a position to win the race. When you consider that the trainer has taken the prize in this race three times in the last 5 years, it's probably fair to assume that this has been the horse's target for a while. Obviously its a very tight knit affair and I know that the Hill's yard fancy their horse, although they do have reservations about the ground, and MINIMIZE RISK was a horse from my horse's to follow list last year, so I have mixed feelings about opposing him but for me David Livingstone's preparation has been better and whereas Minimize, Model Pupil, Call to Battle & Mickdaam all had tough races less than 30 days ago, DL had nothing more than a gentle canter to the line and I believe that will be the difference today.
3:40 Chester - LUCKY BEGGAR (5/1) - 1 pt win - The Hill's yard really fancy this horse but the draw has significantly dampened their enthusiasm. They still believe that he may be good enough to over come it and for that reason I'm having a small win bet, but I believe it will be a seriously tough task.
INFO
5:40 Clonmel - JACKSONSLADY (11/1) - 3pts e/w - This one comes from my usual source in Ireland and the advice was to back e/w as he has also heard that HE'LLBEREMEMBERED is quietly fancied. I've had a look at the race myself and irrespective of the info I would have been backing Jacksonslady and this looks to be a very strong e/w bet.
Wednesday, 9 May 2012
Early Selection (10.05.12)
1:35 Chester - CALL TO REASON (18/1) - Posting this one up now because if I'm right about how I've read this race then this horse will be backed in and will go off significantly shorter tomorrow. Boylesports go a stand alone 18/1 well she is currently available for a place at 5.2 on betfair. I really fancy this one so I'm having 7 points on a place at 5.2 and 3 points on a win at 18/1. Best of luck if you follow
Today's Final Score (09.05.12)
A day of mixed fortunes, I hit 2 winners in the shape of Confessional (5/1) and Lookout Fountain (evens) but was again plagued by a run of placed horses. Tom Horn, Betterbetterbetter and Star for Life all finished second, while Baddalini and Shoshoin Wind finished 3rd (Shoshoin Wind only 7 runners). To add insult to injury the horse which I selected, but didn't back, stormed to victory at an advised price of 5/1 which could have made a real difference to my day.
As it stands I made a small loss, which is incredibly frustrating, but its only a matter of time before this run of placed horses turn into winners and at that point we will all be laughing.
Starting Bank = 550.13
Total bets placed = 78 points
Total return =68.45
Start bank for tomorrow = 540.58
As it stands I made a small loss, which is incredibly frustrating, but its only a matter of time before this run of placed horses turn into winners and at that point we will all be laughing.
Starting Bank = 550.13
Total bets placed = 78 points
Total return =68.45
Start bank for tomorrow = 540.58
8:40 Ffos Las
LOOKOUT MOUNTAIN (EVENS) - 17 point win - I got my fingers burnt a few days a go backing a fav in a bumper but this one has winner written all over it, it has the best pedigree in the race by a country mile and its sires progeny have an incredible strike rate first time out in bumpers. The horse will definitely handle the ground and with pace in her pedigree if the race unfolds slowly and becomes a sprint to the finish then this horse should have the turn of foot to put the race to bed very quickly. The best of the rest will probably be REGAL COUNTY (5/1) - so will have 3 pts on the CSF as well.
Info horse in Ireland ran well but was beaten by a much better horse but the bet returned the stake so nothing to cry about.
Info horse in Ireland ran well but was beaten by a much better horse but the bet returned the stake so nothing to cry about.
IRISH INFO
6:10 - TOM HORN (5/1) - 5pts e/w - advise was a win bet but the Mullins horse looks strong so I've gone e/w even though I will only break even on a place.
4:45 Chester
BOB'S WORLD (18/1) - 1.5pts e/w - Very speculative selection and I have a feeling I may live to regret placing this bet but the form of the horses maiden win has worked out extremely well and on that basis the horse is well handicapped. Plenty of smart looking horses in the race and therefore there is a chance that he fails miserably but I just have a feeling that everyone may have over looked him including the handicapper and the bookies.
4:15 Chester
SHOSHONI WIND (12/1) - 2pts e.w - I originally ignored this horse because of its draw and the presence of ADDICTIVE DREAM, but the withdrawal of numerous runners and the drift on the forecast favourite has lead me to believe that there may well be an upset on the cards in this race. Shoshoni is a CD winner and is 2 from 2 in Class 3 company, although he has not run on soft ground before he does stay further that 5f and his sire has an ok record on the soft. Kevin Ryan has a stunning record at the track and also does well in races of this type, obviously the horse is disadvantaged by the weights but I have a feeling that Makin will get a good tune out of the horse and I would be happy with a place.
I will also have a 0.5pt e/w CSF with NOSEDIVE (I have a feeling the Nicholls yard may be playing silly beggars)
I will also have a 0.5pt e/w CSF with NOSEDIVE (I have a feeling the Nicholls yard may be playing silly beggars)
IRISH INFO
I have just had a call about a horse at Punches that is considered to be a solid betting proposition. The source gave us all a few nice winners at the festival, he is usually bang on the money and he is very confident about this one. I can't post until later this evening but watch this space and it should be up some time after 5:30.
Today's Selections (9.05.12)
Some good looking racing today and I will be doing two separate threads for my flat and NH selections. Together with my own personal selections, I have an Info horse at Chester and Ffos Las and a Top Tip from my man at Punchestown.
Today's Flat Meeting Selections
1:35 Chester - BADDILINI (8/1) - 2.0pts e/w - Now I may be beaten by the dreaded draw factor at Chester but I think this horse is over priced on what he has achieved so far. The trainer openly stated at the start of the season that this is a race which he wants to win and therefore one can assume that Baddilini has been trained specifically with this race in mind. Bailey books Ryan Moore for the ride which is a pretty rare thing and when he does get the leg up he usually wins (43% strike rate, 50% on 2yo's). For me the horse has the best form in the book and looks a better horse than most of the horses drawn inside him. Obviously Moore will have to give the horse a very good ride to win from a wide berth, but we all know he's capable of doing that. I also believe that the Johnston horse is overpriced considering how talented his Dam was and I will be having a 0.50pt RF with him and my selection. Lets just hope the draw doesn't defeat me.
2:05 Chester - BETTERBETTERBETTER (2/1) - 10pt win - For me this is probably the stand out bet on the Chester card today, the horse really caught the eye on her debut at Leopardstown finishing 4th in a maiden which should throw out a few winners in the next few months. O'Brien has a stunning record in the race and the market has spoken in his favour with Lads going 7/4 at the moment. All in all it looks like a good bet and I would be surprised if this horse didn't go close. For those looking for a tasty e/w bet the Hill's runner SAFARJAL is thought to have solid place claims but I have had my fingers burnt one too many times by this filly already.
2:35 Chester - NEVER CAN TELL (10/1) - 1.50pts e/w - Obviously this is a wide open race and is not a great betting prospect but this horse despite looking to be a second string for the owner, seems to meet the majority of the key trends. The only question mark for me would be whether he will handle the ground, but he's out of Montjeu so hopefully he will. I will also be having 1pt e/w on BARBICAN (25/1) who has apparently been working well and after running no kind of race LTO I have a feeling that we may see a better performance today.
Chester Info Selections
3:05 - CONFESSIONAL (5/1) - Interesting message received for this horse from a yard which seems to be finding a bit of form again. It is obviously a very competitive race and the price doesn't look that attractive from an e/w perspective so I will be having a small 2pt bet on the win.
3:40 - STAR FOR LIFE (25/1) - 1pt e/w - Now the Hill's horse Linkable is strongly fancied to run well in this race but the ground is a bit of an unknown and therefore 5-6/1 looks a bit short to me. My guy did however inform me that better things are expected from the Magnusson horse and the booking of Moore would seem to suggest that there is some substance to the info. The horse still holds a derby entry, is well drawn and it wouldn't be the first time that a horse from this stable showed significant improvement on its second run. Very interesting little runner and definitely worth a small e/w bet.
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AW Selections
2:25 Southwell - MARY'S PET (5/1) - No Bet - This horse immediately caught my eye last night when I was looking through the card mainly due to the fact that he is a front runner who at no point in his last 4-5 races has been put in any kind of position to win a race. He came in for a bit of money this morning and is definitely a very interesting runner for what is a small yard who know how to back a winner. I won't be backing the horse as it looks like a wide open race, but I will definitely be watching with interest and if this one hits the front early, I may have a bet in running.
4:35 Southwell - WICKED SPIRIT (11/8 BOG) - 10pt win - This horse is a penalty system qualifier having won on his debut for the yard LTO in a Class 5 event at Wolves. She carries a 6lb penalty today which is all but negated by the presence of a claimer and in today's small field she should be able to dominate proceedings, stay out of the kickback and win the race. She currently holds entries in much better races than this and with the majority of her competition looking exposed I believe this horse should record he second win today. (NAP)
9:00 Kempton - PERFECT FANTASY (8/1) - 3pts e/w - This horse looks massively overpriced when you consider how well his maiden win has worked out. Between the 7 horses that raced that day they have run a further 14 times, winning 4 and placing in 3 to record a P/L of +16.25. The second horse home in that maiden was Heartsong who now holds an OR of 85, so Perfect Fantasy mark of 72 looks very lenient. The horse is well breed, is from a good stable, has a good jockey on board and should go very close to winning this race at a very generous price.
Today's Flat Meeting Selections
1:35 Chester - BADDILINI (8/1) - 2.0pts e/w - Now I may be beaten by the dreaded draw factor at Chester but I think this horse is over priced on what he has achieved so far. The trainer openly stated at the start of the season that this is a race which he wants to win and therefore one can assume that Baddilini has been trained specifically with this race in mind. Bailey books Ryan Moore for the ride which is a pretty rare thing and when he does get the leg up he usually wins (43% strike rate, 50% on 2yo's). For me the horse has the best form in the book and looks a better horse than most of the horses drawn inside him. Obviously Moore will have to give the horse a very good ride to win from a wide berth, but we all know he's capable of doing that. I also believe that the Johnston horse is overpriced considering how talented his Dam was and I will be having a 0.50pt RF with him and my selection. Lets just hope the draw doesn't defeat me.
2:05 Chester - BETTERBETTERBETTER (2/1) - 10pt win - For me this is probably the stand out bet on the Chester card today, the horse really caught the eye on her debut at Leopardstown finishing 4th in a maiden which should throw out a few winners in the next few months. O'Brien has a stunning record in the race and the market has spoken in his favour with Lads going 7/4 at the moment. All in all it looks like a good bet and I would be surprised if this horse didn't go close. For those looking for a tasty e/w bet the Hill's runner SAFARJAL is thought to have solid place claims but I have had my fingers burnt one too many times by this filly already.
2:35 Chester - NEVER CAN TELL (10/1) - 1.50pts e/w - Obviously this is a wide open race and is not a great betting prospect but this horse despite looking to be a second string for the owner, seems to meet the majority of the key trends. The only question mark for me would be whether he will handle the ground, but he's out of Montjeu so hopefully he will. I will also be having 1pt e/w on BARBICAN (25/1) who has apparently been working well and after running no kind of race LTO I have a feeling that we may see a better performance today.
Chester Info Selections
3:05 - CONFESSIONAL (5/1) - Interesting message received for this horse from a yard which seems to be finding a bit of form again. It is obviously a very competitive race and the price doesn't look that attractive from an e/w perspective so I will be having a small 2pt bet on the win.
3:40 - STAR FOR LIFE (25/1) - 1pt e/w - Now the Hill's horse Linkable is strongly fancied to run well in this race but the ground is a bit of an unknown and therefore 5-6/1 looks a bit short to me. My guy did however inform me that better things are expected from the Magnusson horse and the booking of Moore would seem to suggest that there is some substance to the info. The horse still holds a derby entry, is well drawn and it wouldn't be the first time that a horse from this stable showed significant improvement on its second run. Very interesting little runner and definitely worth a small e/w bet.
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AW Selections
2:25 Southwell - MARY'S PET (5/1) - No Bet - This horse immediately caught my eye last night when I was looking through the card mainly due to the fact that he is a front runner who at no point in his last 4-5 races has been put in any kind of position to win a race. He came in for a bit of money this morning and is definitely a very interesting runner for what is a small yard who know how to back a winner. I won't be backing the horse as it looks like a wide open race, but I will definitely be watching with interest and if this one hits the front early, I may have a bet in running.
4:35 Southwell - WICKED SPIRIT (11/8 BOG) - 10pt win - This horse is a penalty system qualifier having won on his debut for the yard LTO in a Class 5 event at Wolves. She carries a 6lb penalty today which is all but negated by the presence of a claimer and in today's small field she should be able to dominate proceedings, stay out of the kickback and win the race. She currently holds entries in much better races than this and with the majority of her competition looking exposed I believe this horse should record he second win today. (NAP)
9:00 Kempton - PERFECT FANTASY (8/1) - 3pts e/w - This horse looks massively overpriced when you consider how well his maiden win has worked out. Between the 7 horses that raced that day they have run a further 14 times, winning 4 and placing in 3 to record a P/L of +16.25. The second horse home in that maiden was Heartsong who now holds an OR of 85, so Perfect Fantasy mark of 72 looks very lenient. The horse is well breed, is from a good stable, has a good jockey on board and should go very close to winning this race at a very generous price.
Yesterday's Final Score
An infuriating day for me yesterday as I hit 3 seconds and a third from my 5 personal selections. The performance of my two win bets were disappointing and that really put the nail in the coffin for the day despite the e/w bets performing very well.
Starting Bank = 579.45
Bets Placed = 82.45
Total Return = 53.13
Starting Bank for the day = 550.13
Starting Bank = 579.45
Bets Placed = 82.45
Total Return = 53.13
Starting Bank for the day = 550.13
Tuesday, 8 May 2012
RIP International Debut
The yard have confirmed that their stable star International Debut died on the gallops this morning after collapsing. The horse won me a nice wedge in the past and was a beautiful horse, my thought and condolences go out to all those connected.
Monday, 7 May 2012
Tomorrow's early selections
Starting Bank = 579.45
2:45 Southwell - LAKEMAN (7/1) - 7.5pts e/w
3:30 Fakenham - KILMACOWEN - 25pt win (No price yet but forecast at around 11/8)
3:45 Southwell - BEACHWOOD BAY (11/1) - 5pts e/w
5:50 Punches - NINETIETH MINUTE (7/1) - 5pt E/W
20:25 Exeter - ALANTIC ROLLER (11/8 BOG) - 19.45pts
Total stake = 79.45pts
That's all of today's selections although I am waiting for confirmation of an Info horse at Southwell and a pick from my Irish source at Punchestown who will hopefully continue his cracking run at the venue.
2:45 Southwell - LAKEMAN (7/1) - 7.5pts e/w
3:30 Fakenham - KILMACOWEN - 25pt win (No price yet but forecast at around 11/8)
3:45 Southwell - BEACHWOOD BAY (11/1) - 5pts e/w
5:50 Punches - NINETIETH MINUTE (7/1) - 5pt E/W
20:25 Exeter - ALANTIC ROLLER (11/8 BOG) - 19.45pts
Total stake = 79.45pts
That's all of today's selections although I am waiting for confirmation of an Info horse at Southwell and a pick from my Irish source at Punchestown who will hopefully continue his cracking run at the venue.
5:50 Kempton
Well so far my favourite backing has not go to plan but the law of racing averages would suggest that my selection in the last should now do the business. It's all or nothing now and I'm having a further 20pts on HAAMAT (11/8) together with a 10pt CSF with Jedward. If the latter wins then those two Irish numpty's better watch out!
2:50 Curragh
COOLNAGREE (11/2) - 10pt win - My man in Ireland really fancies this horse and having looked at the key trends for the race I do too. With the benefit of a race under his belt and with Murtagh likely to force the pace on the fav this horse should have a good chance from his prime draw. He handle the ground and has some strong form to his name. Looks like a good value bet against the fav.
Todays Selections
Yesterday was a frustrating day and I registered my first significant loss of the last 10 days. I'm on a mission to win it back today though and I have found a few really nice bets.
Starting Bank = 604.07
Today's Selections
3:00 Windsor - CARDINAL (6/1) - 3pt win - This would have been my max e/w bet of the day but the non runners have ruined that idea. Obviously the Varian runner is respected but I think this previous CD winner will go very close to taking the prize.
4:00 Beverly - EUROPEAN DREAM (12/1) - 2.5pts e/w - The horse didn't perform last time out in terrible conditions at Sandown but he has a very good record in this class of company and back with Guest having just his 3rd run on the flat in his second spell with the trainer, there may be room for a little bit of improvement.
4:20 Kempton - HILL STREET (10/11 BOG) - 25 pt win - I wouldn't usually back a horse in a maiden at this kind of price and it may prove to be a foolish decision but I really can't see this horse being beaten today.
4:50 Kempton - TERDAAD (3/1) - 16pt win - I have been waiting for this horse to make its reappearance. I heard some very positive reports about the horse when it was out in Dubai and on its previous form it is clearly well handicapped off a mark of 90. Obviously the trainers form is a bit of a worry but this one should be ready to go first time out.
5:50 Kempton - HAAMAAT (13/8) - 11 pt win - I backed this horse on its debut and that run should have put the horse in a prime position to win today. I may be pushing my luck backing 3 favs in a row at Kempton but this one should round of the day in fine style as long as Fahey and Hanagan don't have other plans.
Total Bets = 60 points
Will be an INFO horse at Windsor and Beverly to follow and maybe a selection from my Irish contact at the Curragh (wont be info).
Starting Bank = 604.07
Today's Selections
3:00 Windsor - CARDINAL (6/1) - 3pt win - This would have been my max e/w bet of the day but the non runners have ruined that idea. Obviously the Varian runner is respected but I think this previous CD winner will go very close to taking the prize.
4:00 Beverly - EUROPEAN DREAM (12/1) - 2.5pts e/w - The horse didn't perform last time out in terrible conditions at Sandown but he has a very good record in this class of company and back with Guest having just his 3rd run on the flat in his second spell with the trainer, there may be room for a little bit of improvement.
4:20 Kempton - HILL STREET (10/11 BOG) - 25 pt win - I wouldn't usually back a horse in a maiden at this kind of price and it may prove to be a foolish decision but I really can't see this horse being beaten today.
4:50 Kempton - TERDAAD (3/1) - 16pt win - I have been waiting for this horse to make its reappearance. I heard some very positive reports about the horse when it was out in Dubai and on its previous form it is clearly well handicapped off a mark of 90. Obviously the trainers form is a bit of a worry but this one should be ready to go first time out.
5:50 Kempton - HAAMAAT (13/8) - 11 pt win - I backed this horse on its debut and that run should have put the horse in a prime position to win today. I may be pushing my luck backing 3 favs in a row at Kempton but this one should round of the day in fine style as long as Fahey and Hanagan don't have other plans.
Total Bets = 60 points
Will be an INFO horse at Windsor and Beverly to follow and maybe a selection from my Irish contact at the Curragh (wont be info).
Sunday, 6 May 2012
Today's Selections
NEWMARKET
2:05 - ROCK A DOODLE DEE (12/1) - 1pts e/w
2:05 - LOCAL HERO (8/1) - 5 pt e/w
2:35 - TIME PIECE (7/4) - 8pt win (1pt e/w CSF with IZZI TOP)
3:15 - DISCOURSE (12/1) - 1.5pts e/w
3:15 - LYRIC OF LIGHT (10/1) = 2.5pts e/w
5:35 - OPEN WATER (7/1) - 3pts e/w (INFO)
SLIGO
3:30 - HIS EXCELLENCY (6/4) - 16 pt win (INFO)
8PT DOUBLE
3:10 - MAYBE (7/4)
3:30 - HIS EXCELLENCY (6/4)
Total Bets Placed = 60 points
Full write up's to follow
Final Score (05.05.12)
Well what a roller coaster ride yesterday was, after hitting a 2 winners (2/1 and 12/1) and 2 place bets (22/1 & 12/1) I should have called it a day and walked away with 14pts profit on the day but I received 2 bits of info late on, one ran a shocker after I had backed it to place meaning that I ignored the second horse and he bloody won at 8/1! To add insult to injury I then placed my faith in the sister of Cue Card in the bumper at Hexham and got my fingers burnt as the horse hung throughout the race and was eventually pulled up meaning that my profit on the day was only 0.25pts!
Today will be a different story though as I have spent a considerable amount of time looking through the Newmarket card and I think I have found some really strong bets. Although yesterday was still a profitable day it has set me back slightly and I really need a big profit today, so lets hope everything goes to plan.
Starting Bank = 640.82
Today will be a different story though as I have spent a considerable amount of time looking through the Newmarket card and I think I have found some really strong bets. Although yesterday was still a profitable day it has set me back slightly and I really need a big profit today, so lets hope everything goes to plan.
Starting Bank = 640.82
Saturday, 5 May 2012
Hexham Bumper
Playing with additional profit today having obtained 74+ points against 63 staked so I'm putting those 11 points on The Wicked Kipper (6/4)in the 8:10. This sister of Cue Card should really be good enough to win and with a significant pull in the weights and plenty of speed she really should win.
INFO Update
Horse is ONELADYOWNER and he runs in the 7:25 the horse is currently a best price of 22/1 and is around 5/1 for place on betfair. Connections are apparently confident that the horse will run a good race on his come back although the ground is some what of an unknown and there are a few horses in the line up who have been punted including one from the Barron yard which is obviously ominous. I have had a close look at the race and it's a difficult one to call but the horse is fancied and on its past form is entitled to be there at the finish. I will 1.5pt e/w (BOG) at 22/1.
I also have a horse lined up for the lucky last at Donny but I need to find out whether the Honeyball horse is really fancied first so I will post that one up once I get confirmation.
I also have a horse lined up for the lucky last at Donny but I need to find out whether the Honeyball horse is really fancied first so I will post that one up once I get confirmation.
INFO
Strong word received for a horse at Doncaster tonight. Been told not to post until later on so will be up around 6:30 and this one is HOT.
Today' Selections
So the day is now upon us and after over sleeping this morning it has turned into a mad rush to try and get all of the write ups, key stats etc posted before race time. With that in mind I'm going to just post up my selections and stakes at the moment and then will then post up the detailed write ups throughout the day as when they are ready.
2:00 Newmarket - CIRCUMVENT (11/1) - 2.5pts e/w
2:30 Newmarket - AL KAZEEM (12/1) - 1.5pts e/w
3:10 Newmarket - HERMIVAL (22/1) - 1.5pts e/w
4:10 Uttoxeter - HOLLYWELL (4/1) - 7 pt win
4:20 Newmarket - MINCE (8/1) - 3pts e/w (INFO)
4:40 Goodwood - POOLE HARBOUR (2/1) - 10 pt win (INFO)
5:35 Thirsk - SEVENTH SIGN (14/1) -1pt e/w
6:10 Hexham - KYKATE (2/1) - 10 Pt win
6:25 Doncaster - REGAL DAN (5/1) - 4pt win (INFO)
Double
3:10 Newmarket - CAMELOT (15/8)
4:55 Newmarket - MARINERS CROSS (2/1)
10 point win
Starting Bank = 640.57
Total Bets Placed = 60 points
2:00 Newmarket - CIRCUMVENT (11/1) - 2.5pts e/w
2:30 Newmarket - AL KAZEEM (12/1) - 1.5pts e/w
3:10 Newmarket - HERMIVAL (22/1) - 1.5pts e/w
4:10 Uttoxeter - HOLLYWELL (4/1) - 7 pt win
4:20 Newmarket - MINCE (8/1) - 3pts e/w (INFO)
4:40 Goodwood - POOLE HARBOUR (2/1) - 10 pt win (INFO)
5:35 Thirsk - SEVENTH SIGN (14/1) -1pt e/w
6:10 Hexham - KYKATE (2/1) - 10 Pt win
6:25 Doncaster - REGAL DAN (5/1) - 4pt win (INFO)
Double
3:10 Newmarket - CAMELOT (15/8)
4:55 Newmarket - MARINERS CROSS (2/1)
10 point win
Starting Bank = 640.57
Total Bets Placed = 60 points
Friday, 4 May 2012
Today's Final Score
Definitely not a great day as far as individual tips go but I made a profit and that's all I have to worry about.
Starting Bank - 609.32
Total Bets - 40 points
Total Return - 71.25
Starting Bank for tomorrow = 640.57
A week into this new advised bet and stake system and I have increased by starting bank by over 140 points. People that follow my selections need to follow religiously and keep to the advised stakes where possible. On my staking system 1pt is equal to £10 but people can use which ever denomination suits them, but the important to thing is to have confidence because we will continue to make profit and I'm determined to double my betting bank in the next three weeks. It promises to be one hell of a ride and there will inevitably be up's and down by I have only had one unprofitable day in the last week and that's how I plan to continue.
Tomorrow is one of the best cards of the flat season and we will see some truely World class horses lining up at Newmarket. I have already posted by detailed write up about the 1000 Guineas and I will be doing one for the 2000's tonight as well. I have always performed well at this meeting in the past and my aim is to finish this weekend with at least 200 points profit in the bank so watch this space!
Starting Bank - 609.32
Total Bets - 40 points
Total Return - 71.25
Starting Bank for tomorrow = 640.57
A week into this new advised bet and stake system and I have increased by starting bank by over 140 points. People that follow my selections need to follow religiously and keep to the advised stakes where possible. On my staking system 1pt is equal to £10 but people can use which ever denomination suits them, but the important to thing is to have confidence because we will continue to make profit and I'm determined to double my betting bank in the next three weeks. It promises to be one hell of a ride and there will inevitably be up's and down by I have only had one unprofitable day in the last week and that's how I plan to continue.
Tomorrow is one of the best cards of the flat season and we will see some truely World class horses lining up at Newmarket. I have already posted by detailed write up about the 1000 Guineas and I will be doing one for the 2000's tonight as well. I have always performed well at this meeting in the past and my aim is to finish this weekend with at least 200 points profit in the bank so watch this space!
Update
Today has been nothing short of terrible and there is no doubt that the weather/conditions are taking their toll. If by last selection in the bumper wins though I will still be in profit for the day and I'm very confident about this one. With that in mind I'm having another 11pts at 13/8. That's 40 points placed today and once again I'm in the last chance salon and I love the pressure!
One from Ireland
My friend in Ireland has provided me with a longshot selection at Dundalk tonight. The horse is LOUGH FERRIB and the horse runs in the 7:35 and is currently available at around 10/1 for a place on betfair. I have to say that I can't really see where he's coming from with this horse but he usually steers me in the right direction so I'm going to have a cheeky 2 points on the place and will see what happens.
My Personal Selections
Just the two form based selections today as you are spoilt for choice already with 2 info tips and some quality looking bets from the guest tipster Casey (see post entitled Special Guest Appearance).
6:15 Fontwell - CLU AGUS CAIL (4.5 place Betfair) - 2 points (** Rating) - Now this horse is a bit of a speculative selection but I think she will run a good race and has every chance of finishing in the first 3. The horse looked to be progressing very nicely last season over fences and saw he OR rise from 85 to 97. Although the form of a few of her races haven't worked out particularly well I believe that she still has room for improvement off her current mark and she has always been a horse which the trainer/owner believed to be a reasonable chasing prospect. She gets into today's race off bottom weight and although the GS ground is unknown territory it may actually work in her favour as she isn't horse with an abundance of tactical speed. The jockey is also able to claim 3lb today and for me his is good value for that especially over fences at this course where he holds a 21% strike rate.
8:15 Fontwell - NO NO CHARLIE (2/1) - 15 Point win (**** Rating) - A good looking bumper race ends the card at Fontwell today and I really fancy the Longsdon horse to take all the beating. His third placed finish at Chepstow in April sets the standard and he is a proven performer on softish ground. He has a solid racing pedigree and has been blessed with plenty of tactical speed, the yard operates at an incredible strike rate in races of this kind and with Brennan in the saddle (only ride at the meeting), I fully expect this horse to win.
Starting Bank = 609.32
Total Bets (including info selections) = 37 points
6:15 Fontwell - CLU AGUS CAIL (4.5 place Betfair) - 2 points (** Rating) - Now this horse is a bit of a speculative selection but I think she will run a good race and has every chance of finishing in the first 3. The horse looked to be progressing very nicely last season over fences and saw he OR rise from 85 to 97. Although the form of a few of her races haven't worked out particularly well I believe that she still has room for improvement off her current mark and she has always been a horse which the trainer/owner believed to be a reasonable chasing prospect. She gets into today's race off bottom weight and although the GS ground is unknown territory it may actually work in her favour as she isn't horse with an abundance of tactical speed. The jockey is also able to claim 3lb today and for me his is good value for that especially over fences at this course where he holds a 21% strike rate.
8:15 Fontwell - NO NO CHARLIE (2/1) - 15 Point win (**** Rating) - A good looking bumper race ends the card at Fontwell today and I really fancy the Longsdon horse to take all the beating. His third placed finish at Chepstow in April sets the standard and he is a proven performer on softish ground. He has a solid racing pedigree and has been blessed with plenty of tactical speed, the yard operates at an incredible strike rate in races of this kind and with Brennan in the saddle (only ride at the meeting), I fully expect this horse to win.
Starting Bank = 609.32
Total Bets (including info selections) = 37 points
First Two Info Selection
Musselburugh 3:30 - BORUG (4/1) - 6 point win - Fully expected to improve on its third place finished LTO and win the race.
6:30 Bangor - RAWAAJ (15/8) - 14 point win - Plenty of confidence behind this horse and it is expected to win on its chasing debut and is thought to have a very strong chance of winning.
Starting Bank = 609.32
Total Bets Placed = 20 points
P.S - DESERT STRIKE (5/1) is also fancied by the Hill's yard and they are confident that his horse will go very close today. I'm a bit concerned by the fact that a few runners have come in for money this morning though and until I hear confirmation from my source about the oppositions chances I wont be having a bet.
6:30 Bangor - RAWAAJ (15/8) - 14 point win - Plenty of confidence behind this horse and it is expected to win on its chasing debut and is thought to have a very strong chance of winning.
Starting Bank = 609.32
Total Bets Placed = 20 points
P.S - DESERT STRIKE (5/1) is also fancied by the Hill's yard and they are confident that his horse will go very close today. I'm a bit concerned by the fact that a few runners have come in for money this morning though and until I hear confirmation from my source about the oppositions chances I wont be having a bet.
1000 Guineas - Everything you need to know to find a winner
So
with the Newmarket meeting just around the corner I have taken the decision to
undertake substantial reviews of both the 2000 and 1000 Guineas.
As always in these types of
races I believe that key trends are very important so this will be my starting
point when analyzing the potential prospects of the individual
runners.
KEY TRENDS
Draw - The respective draw of a horse hasn't really been a
deciding factor in the last few years however, stalls 1 and 2 should be
avoided as horses starting from that position on the day have a very poor
record - 30 runs, 0 wins, 3 places. In terms of a positive draw bias stall 6
and 9 have the best win percentage (13%) and stall 3 has the best place
percentage (33%). All in all nothing to get too concerned about.
Last time out finish - Unlike the majority of these high profile races you
are not necessarily looking for a LTO winner. Although 9 of the last 15 winners
did win their penultimate race, the win percentage is directly proportionate to
the amount of runners (97 runs / 9 wins = 9%). Horses which finished second or
third LTO have a very poor record in the race and have posted just one winner
from 66 runners, whereas horses who finished 4th have a win percentage of 16%
and a P/L of 6.33 (19 runners and 3 winners). Despite this positive statistic
it may still be best to stick with those horses that finished 1st last time out
as they have an extremely high place rate (22%) and clearly make good
e/w bets.
Starting Price - Firstly, unlike the 2000 Guineas, outsiders do win this race. Out of
the previous 15 winners, 8 of them have been priced up at between 17/2 and
20/1, which is truly amazing really. Although horses had the head of the market
have the best win percentage (16 runs, 5 wins, 31%), horses that went off
placed 6 or 7th in the market also have an extremely positive strike
rate and have won 7 renewals (38 runners). These statistics clearly highlight
the difficulties of finding a winner in this race but it also shows that it is
always worth having a speculative e/w punt on an outsider.
Days since the horses last
run - The main thing to note here is that you should avoid
any horse that has raced in the last 8-15 days. To date horses in this category
are yet to win the race from 26 competitors. Obviously the strong trend
here is for horses making their seasonal debut, which is to be expected but
horses that have run in the last 16-30 days don't do too badly and have
recorded a 21% place rate in recent years. Horses having their first run also
make for good place bets as they currently hold a 24% place rate from a limited
number of runners (21).
Number of runs in the last
year - This particular statistic is very interesting and is
a key aid in the elimination process. Horses having their second run in the
last year have performed well in the past having achieved 3 wins from just 15
runners. Horses having their 3rd run have performed poorly though having obtained
just one win and 5 places from 30 runners. A similar statistic applies to
horses having their 6th run as they have posted just one winner and 7 places
from 42 runs. The standout performances relate to horses having their 4th or
5th run in the last year, as horses in this category have won the
race 7 times from a combined total of 91 runs.
Birthday - In the last 10 season only 2 winners were born in April, all the rest
celebrated their birthdays in February or March. This is a statistic which
should be shown considerable respect and I would be very wary of any horse that
was sired after early April.
Sires - In general terms great horses make good sires and over 90% of the
previous winners in the last 10 years have been sired by horse who finished 1st
or 2nd in a Group 1 race over 6-8f. This is another trend which should be given
careful consideration as horses with strong bloodlines usually do very well in
this race.
Previous performances - 8 of the last 10 winners had all won in Group company prior to
winning the 1000 guineas but interestingly only 4 of them had won on their
debut. 100% of the last 10 winners had won over 6-8f prior to victory and they
had all ran at least twice as 2 year olds.
Previous course form - 7 of the last 10 winners had previously won at the
track and the remaining three were all making their course debuts.
Key 2 year old trial races - There are four main races which you want to look out
for as far as trials go and there are; The Cheveley Park Stakes (Lightening
Pearl & Sunday Times), the Rockfel Stakes (Grey Pearl), The Prix Robin
Papin and the Prix Morny.
Trainer Records - French trained horses have a very impressive record
in the race ( 2 winners from 7 runners) and this year Mashoora is their only preventative.
The Irish also do pretty well but the likes of Hannon, Gosden and Channon have
only had two placed horses between them. The ever impressive Mahmood Al Zarooni
won the race last year with his first ever runner and you
can guarantee that the Godophin stable will be going all guns blazing
to win it again.
KEY TREND ANALYSIS
So that’s just about it as far
as key trends go, so now it’s time to put them into
practice, analyze the runners individual form lines and find some
potential bets.
The first step in the
elimination process for me is to discount the majority of horses who haven't at
least won in listed company (Radio Gaga, Diala, Alla Speranza, Wonderful,
Up, Sunday Times, Starscope, Laugh Out Loud). The only two horses left who
are yet to win in listed/group company are The Fugue and Grey Pearl.
The next step is to check sire
dates, anything sired after the 10th April 2009 will also be discarded;
1. La Collina - born 24th
April 2009 and her Sire never won a graded race over 8f which is a concern
anyway
2. Homecoming Queen - born
23rd April
The third step is to look as
the remaining horses pedigree and sires in order to ensure that they meet the
necessary requirements and all of the 11 remaining runners were sired by Group
1 winners over 6-8f.
The fourth step is
to eliminate and horse who is currently priced higher than 25/1; Nayarra, Lily's Angel and Fire
Lilly. Horses of this type have a very poor record in the race and have
only managed to place 8 times from a combined total of 112 runs.
So that now leaves us with the
following horses and each of them will be reviewed closely;
GREY PEARL (25/1) - This Filly
by Excellent Art made a pleasing start to her career by winning a Class 4
maiden at Newbury over 6f on good ground. She then had a few setbacks and
wasn't seen again until her appearance in the Rockfel where she
finished third behind Pimpernel and Wading, which was a really pleasing
performance considering that she made the running. The horse has always been
held in very high regard and is a very well built horse, but she is yet to win
a listed or group race, has had a previous run at the course and didn't win and
is sired by a horse who is yet to have a Group 1 winning progeny and therefore
I believe this one can be discounted.
LIGHTENING PEARL (25/1) - This
bay Marju Filly looked like a very smart prospect last season winning 3 of her
first 5 starts (2 in Group company). The last of her wins came in the Cheveley
park and she was a comprehensive winner for Johnny Murtagh that day. Obviously
that race is a key trial for the 1000's but I believe there are a
few question-marks surrounding her. Firstly on previous form she will
find it difficult to beat Maybe, secondly although her Dam was a listed winner
over 1m, I suspect that she may be better over a slightly shorter distance and
thirdly her action would suggest that she won’t be suited at all by soft
ground. She also has to overcome a daunting stat in relation to her
number of runs in the last year as only 1 winner of the Guineas from 42 entries
had previous contested 5 races prior to the 1000's. On the whole I believe this
horse may have a minor place claim but I wouldn't want to have my money on her.
THE FUGUE (20/1) - Now this
brown Dansili filly is a very interesting runner for the Gosden yard. To date
she has only been seen once in public when she won a Class 4 maiden at
Newmarket over 7 furlongs. She showed plenty of greeness during that run but it
was a nice enough performance and she has been the subject of some positive
reports from the yard in the last few months, which is reflected in her current
price. For me backing this horse would be a major shot in the dark, compared to
the rest of the runners she is a complete unknown quantity, which may work in
her favour, but she hasn't won a listed race and didn't have 2 runs as a 2 year
old, both of which would have to be considered to be strong negative factors
against her. However, horses having their second run in a year have a very good
record in the race and she is also in the right odds bracket so she may well be
one to consider for e/w purposes especially if she is strong in the market on
the day.
DISCOURSE (8/1) - Now it’s difficult to
assess the Godolphin entries at this stage as obvious the jockey selection will
play a key part and should provide a good indication as to which of their
runners is the fancied horse but for the time being I will assess them on what
we know. Discourse was a horse that from day one, together with Gamilati had
been trained specifically with this race in mind. Last season there was a
significant amount of hype surrounding both horses and it was somewhat of an
upset when discourse out battled Gamilati (2/5) on her debut in a maiden over
6f at Newmarket. I watched the race live that day and have subsequently watched
it since and it was one hell of a performance. It was remarkable how quickly
the horse overcame greeness to outbattled her more experienced rival and she
immediately became one of my horses to follow. Needless to say I couldn't quite
believe my luck when she opened up at 3/1 on her next appearance in the Solera
stakes, I lumped on and she destroyed the field by 4 lengths breaking the
juvenile course record despite being eased down. At the time everyone involved
with the horse new that they had something special and the majority of pundits
believed that she was far superior to Gamilati, however that horse went on to
put in the performance of the Meydan Festival, destroying Pimpernel by over 5
lengths. The fact of the matter is that this horse could literally be anything;
she has a very good pedigree, is proven at the track and should be perfectly
capable of staying an extra furlong. Although the form of her win in the Solera
is nothing special, the performance was, and if Frankie picks this horse over
Lyric of Light (which I expect him to) then this horse has a real live wire
chance and looks like a solid e/w betting proposition. The only concern would
be whether she can cope with the soft ground but with the weather improving it
will hopefully dry out a bit and if it does hit good to soft or good then this
one will be fighting at the finish.
MOONSTONE MAGIC (8/1) -
Although this horse won in fine fashion LTO I have some major doubts about the
form of that race. However she has been supplemented for the race at
a significant cost (£30,000 approx) and she is one of the only runners in the
field who is guaranteed to thrive if the ground does come up soft.
Personally I don't think that the current price presents any kind of value and
I would be pretty confident that she will go off at a bigger price on the day,
so anyone that fancies her should probably leave it late to back her.
Personally she's not for me as three runs in 30 days is a seriously tall order,
especially against this kind of opposition.
LYRIC OF LIGHT (8/1) - This
horse is the other representative from last year’s winning stable and she is
currently undefeated in her career. She opened her account in a class 4 maiden
at Newmarket over 7f and the ground that day was good to soft. Although the
horse was thought to be smart she was never thought to be as smart as Discourse
and Gamilati however so far in her career she has performed above and beyond
all expectations. Following her maiden win she went to Doncaster for the May
Hill Stakes where she won despite still appearing to be a bit green as she hung
in the closing stages and came under heavy pressure to beat Fallen For You by a
nose. She then went back to Newmarket to race in the Shadwell Mile and Dettori
gave her the perfect hold up ride to win the race on the line. Despite the win
she once again showed signs of greeness, she hit a flat spot in running, hung
right and didn't always respond to pressure. Obviously the chances are that
those weaknesses will now have been trained out of her but I would still be
slightly concerned that if those traits were to resurface that they would severely
hinder her chances in this race. The fact that she has won on GS ground is a
major point in her favour though as is the fact that she is a hold up performer,
but personally I would rather have my money on Discource but as mentioned
previously, jockey selection and the horse respective performances in the
markets will be very informative.
MASHOORA (7/1) - Although this
horse meets quite a few of the key trends I have taken an executive decision
not to back it based on the comments of one of my close friends who is well
versed in French racing. He does not value the form of the horses previous wins
and also believes that she will not have the tactical speed to compete with
some of the high class performers in the field. Having done a quick assessment
of the form and the horses pedigree I am inclined to agree with him
and although the horse is proven on soft ground I don't think the price
represents any kind of value and I don't think she has the talent to trouble
the likes of Discourse, Lyric of Light and Maybe.
MAYBE (6/4) - So god knows how
many hours after starting this write up and I've finally made my way to the
heavily backed and potentially World Class horse which is Maybe. There is no
doubt that this horse is something a little bit special, she is unbeaten so far
in her career having already accumulated nearly £230,000 in prize
money. She has beaten the likes of Fire Lily, La Collina and Lightening
Pearl so should therefore be difficult to beat but the question on everyone's
lips is will she win? Well lets start by looking at a few key trends, firstly
she has had 5 runs in the last year which is a major tick in the
negative column but that is pretty much the only one she has. Obviously
there is a slight question-mark as to whether she will be able to
negotiate the step up in trip, but being out of Galileo I would say it’s
a certainty. If anything I believe her biggest problem may well be the raw
speed of some of the other horses when the races gets into the business end and
the holdup performers come to the floor. O'Brien will no doubt look to
counteract this by employing a pace setter though and whoever
is chosen to fulfill that role will probably set off very, very fast
in attempt to make it a real test. Personally I think the horse has every right
to be the favorite but like Camelot in the 2000's I wouldn't want to be backing
her at such a short price and realistically she will definitely drift out in
running due to her running style so if punters are looking to back her then that’s
when you want to lump on.
So in conclusion this race
promises to be a real cracker and there are plenty with live wire chances.
Personally my e/w bet against the field would be DISCOURSE but I will wait
until Jockey bookings/stalls draws are decided before having a punt. For those
looking to find some real e/w value I would probably view THE FUGUE as a
reasonable bet but she is an unknown quantity and wouldn't be a horse that I
would want to have too much riding on.
I hope that you find this
article to be informative and hopefully it leads you and I to winner, but if
not I've had fun writing it and I'm sure that someone will uses these key
trends to good effect.
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