So
with the Newmarket meeting just around the corner I have taken the decision to
undertake substantial reviews of both the 2000 and 1000 Guineas.
As always in these types of
races I believe that key trends are very important so this will be my starting
point when analyzing the potential prospects of the individual
runners.
KEY TRENDS
Draw - The respective draw of a horse hasn't really been a
deciding factor in the last few years however, stalls 1 and 2 should be
avoided as horses starting from that position on the day have a very poor
record - 30 runs, 0 wins, 3 places. In terms of a positive draw bias stall 6
and 9 have the best win percentage (13%) and stall 3 has the best place
percentage (33%). All in all nothing to get too concerned about.
Last time out finish - Unlike the majority of these high profile races you
are not necessarily looking for a LTO winner. Although 9 of the last 15 winners
did win their penultimate race, the win percentage is directly proportionate to
the amount of runners (97 runs / 9 wins = 9%). Horses which finished second or
third LTO have a very poor record in the race and have posted just one winner
from 66 runners, whereas horses who finished 4th have a win percentage of 16%
and a P/L of 6.33 (19 runners and 3 winners). Despite this positive statistic
it may still be best to stick with those horses that finished 1st last time out
as they have an extremely high place rate (22%) and clearly make good
e/w bets.
Starting Price - Firstly, unlike the 2000 Guineas, outsiders do win this race. Out of
the previous 15 winners, 8 of them have been priced up at between 17/2 and
20/1, which is truly amazing really. Although horses had the head of the market
have the best win percentage (16 runs, 5 wins, 31%), horses that went off
placed 6 or 7th in the market also have an extremely positive strike
rate and have won 7 renewals (38 runners). These statistics clearly highlight
the difficulties of finding a winner in this race but it also shows that it is
always worth having a speculative e/w punt on an outsider.
Days since the horses last
run - The main thing to note here is that you should avoid
any horse that has raced in the last 8-15 days. To date horses in this category
are yet to win the race from 26 competitors. Obviously the strong trend
here is for horses making their seasonal debut, which is to be expected but
horses that have run in the last 16-30 days don't do too badly and have
recorded a 21% place rate in recent years. Horses having their first run also
make for good place bets as they currently hold a 24% place rate from a limited
number of runners (21).
Number of runs in the last
year - This particular statistic is very interesting and is
a key aid in the elimination process. Horses having their second run in the
last year have performed well in the past having achieved 3 wins from just 15
runners. Horses having their 3rd run have performed poorly though having obtained
just one win and 5 places from 30 runners. A similar statistic applies to
horses having their 6th run as they have posted just one winner and 7 places
from 42 runs. The standout performances relate to horses having their 4th or
5th run in the last year, as horses in this category have won the
race 7 times from a combined total of 91 runs.
Birthday - In the last 10 season only 2 winners were born in April, all the rest
celebrated their birthdays in February or March. This is a statistic which
should be shown considerable respect and I would be very wary of any horse that
was sired after early April.
Sires - In general terms great horses make good sires and over 90% of the
previous winners in the last 10 years have been sired by horse who finished 1st
or 2nd in a Group 1 race over 6-8f. This is another trend which should be given
careful consideration as horses with strong bloodlines usually do very well in
this race.
Previous performances - 8 of the last 10 winners had all won in Group company prior to
winning the 1000 guineas but interestingly only 4 of them had won on their
debut. 100% of the last 10 winners had won over 6-8f prior to victory and they
had all ran at least twice as 2 year olds.
Previous course form - 7 of the last 10 winners had previously won at the
track and the remaining three were all making their course debuts.
Key 2 year old trial races - There are four main races which you want to look out
for as far as trials go and there are; The Cheveley Park Stakes (Lightening
Pearl & Sunday Times), the Rockfel Stakes (Grey Pearl), The Prix Robin
Papin and the Prix Morny.
Trainer Records - French trained horses have a very impressive record
in the race ( 2 winners from 7 runners) and this year Mashoora is their only preventative.
The Irish also do pretty well but the likes of Hannon, Gosden and Channon have
only had two placed horses between them. The ever impressive Mahmood Al Zarooni
won the race last year with his first ever runner and you
can guarantee that the Godophin stable will be going all guns blazing
to win it again.
KEY TREND ANALYSIS
So that’s just about it as far
as key trends go, so now it’s time to put them into
practice, analyze the runners individual form lines and find some
potential bets.
The first step in the
elimination process for me is to discount the majority of horses who haven't at
least won in listed company (Radio Gaga, Diala, Alla Speranza, Wonderful,
Up, Sunday Times, Starscope, Laugh Out Loud). The only two horses left who
are yet to win in listed/group company are The Fugue and Grey Pearl.
The next step is to check sire
dates, anything sired after the 10th April 2009 will also be discarded;
1. La Collina - born 24th
April 2009 and her Sire never won a graded race over 8f which is a concern
anyway
2. Homecoming Queen - born
23rd April
The third step is to look as
the remaining horses pedigree and sires in order to ensure that they meet the
necessary requirements and all of the 11 remaining runners were sired by Group
1 winners over 6-8f.
The fourth step is
to eliminate and horse who is currently priced higher than 25/1; Nayarra, Lily's Angel and Fire
Lilly. Horses of this type have a very poor record in the race and have
only managed to place 8 times from a combined total of 112 runs.
So that now leaves us with the
following horses and each of them will be reviewed closely;
GREY PEARL (25/1) - This Filly
by Excellent Art made a pleasing start to her career by winning a Class 4
maiden at Newbury over 6f on good ground. She then had a few setbacks and
wasn't seen again until her appearance in the Rockfel where she
finished third behind Pimpernel and Wading, which was a really pleasing
performance considering that she made the running. The horse has always been
held in very high regard and is a very well built horse, but she is yet to win
a listed or group race, has had a previous run at the course and didn't win and
is sired by a horse who is yet to have a Group 1 winning progeny and therefore
I believe this one can be discounted.
LIGHTENING PEARL (25/1) - This
bay Marju Filly looked like a very smart prospect last season winning 3 of her
first 5 starts (2 in Group company). The last of her wins came in the Cheveley
park and she was a comprehensive winner for Johnny Murtagh that day. Obviously
that race is a key trial for the 1000's but I believe there are a
few question-marks surrounding her. Firstly on previous form she will
find it difficult to beat Maybe, secondly although her Dam was a listed winner
over 1m, I suspect that she may be better over a slightly shorter distance and
thirdly her action would suggest that she won’t be suited at all by soft
ground. She also has to overcome a daunting stat in relation to her
number of runs in the last year as only 1 winner of the Guineas from 42 entries
had previous contested 5 races prior to the 1000's. On the whole I believe this
horse may have a minor place claim but I wouldn't want to have my money on her.
THE FUGUE (20/1) - Now this
brown Dansili filly is a very interesting runner for the Gosden yard. To date
she has only been seen once in public when she won a Class 4 maiden at
Newmarket over 7 furlongs. She showed plenty of greeness during that run but it
was a nice enough performance and she has been the subject of some positive
reports from the yard in the last few months, which is reflected in her current
price. For me backing this horse would be a major shot in the dark, compared to
the rest of the runners she is a complete unknown quantity, which may work in
her favour, but she hasn't won a listed race and didn't have 2 runs as a 2 year
old, both of which would have to be considered to be strong negative factors
against her. However, horses having their second run in a year have a very good
record in the race and she is also in the right odds bracket so she may well be
one to consider for e/w purposes especially if she is strong in the market on
the day.
DISCOURSE (8/1) - Now it’s difficult to
assess the Godolphin entries at this stage as obvious the jockey selection will
play a key part and should provide a good indication as to which of their
runners is the fancied horse but for the time being I will assess them on what
we know. Discourse was a horse that from day one, together with Gamilati had
been trained specifically with this race in mind. Last season there was a
significant amount of hype surrounding both horses and it was somewhat of an
upset when discourse out battled Gamilati (2/5) on her debut in a maiden over
6f at Newmarket. I watched the race live that day and have subsequently watched
it since and it was one hell of a performance. It was remarkable how quickly
the horse overcame greeness to outbattled her more experienced rival and she
immediately became one of my horses to follow. Needless to say I couldn't quite
believe my luck when she opened up at 3/1 on her next appearance in the Solera
stakes, I lumped on and she destroyed the field by 4 lengths breaking the
juvenile course record despite being eased down. At the time everyone involved
with the horse new that they had something special and the majority of pundits
believed that she was far superior to Gamilati, however that horse went on to
put in the performance of the Meydan Festival, destroying Pimpernel by over 5
lengths. The fact of the matter is that this horse could literally be anything;
she has a very good pedigree, is proven at the track and should be perfectly
capable of staying an extra furlong. Although the form of her win in the Solera
is nothing special, the performance was, and if Frankie picks this horse over
Lyric of Light (which I expect him to) then this horse has a real live wire
chance and looks like a solid e/w betting proposition. The only concern would
be whether she can cope with the soft ground but with the weather improving it
will hopefully dry out a bit and if it does hit good to soft or good then this
one will be fighting at the finish.
MOONSTONE MAGIC (8/1) -
Although this horse won in fine fashion LTO I have some major doubts about the
form of that race. However she has been supplemented for the race at
a significant cost (£30,000 approx) and she is one of the only runners in the
field who is guaranteed to thrive if the ground does come up soft.
Personally I don't think that the current price presents any kind of value and
I would be pretty confident that she will go off at a bigger price on the day,
so anyone that fancies her should probably leave it late to back her.
Personally she's not for me as three runs in 30 days is a seriously tall order,
especially against this kind of opposition.
LYRIC OF LIGHT (8/1) - This
horse is the other representative from last year’s winning stable and she is
currently undefeated in her career. She opened her account in a class 4 maiden
at Newmarket over 7f and the ground that day was good to soft. Although the
horse was thought to be smart she was never thought to be as smart as Discourse
and Gamilati however so far in her career she has performed above and beyond
all expectations. Following her maiden win she went to Doncaster for the May
Hill Stakes where she won despite still appearing to be a bit green as she hung
in the closing stages and came under heavy pressure to beat Fallen For You by a
nose. She then went back to Newmarket to race in the Shadwell Mile and Dettori
gave her the perfect hold up ride to win the race on the line. Despite the win
she once again showed signs of greeness, she hit a flat spot in running, hung
right and didn't always respond to pressure. Obviously the chances are that
those weaknesses will now have been trained out of her but I would still be
slightly concerned that if those traits were to resurface that they would severely
hinder her chances in this race. The fact that she has won on GS ground is a
major point in her favour though as is the fact that she is a hold up performer,
but personally I would rather have my money on Discource but as mentioned
previously, jockey selection and the horse respective performances in the
markets will be very informative.
MASHOORA (7/1) - Although this
horse meets quite a few of the key trends I have taken an executive decision
not to back it based on the comments of one of my close friends who is well
versed in French racing. He does not value the form of the horses previous wins
and also believes that she will not have the tactical speed to compete with
some of the high class performers in the field. Having done a quick assessment
of the form and the horses pedigree I am inclined to agree with him
and although the horse is proven on soft ground I don't think the price
represents any kind of value and I don't think she has the talent to trouble
the likes of Discourse, Lyric of Light and Maybe.
MAYBE (6/4) - So god knows how
many hours after starting this write up and I've finally made my way to the
heavily backed and potentially World Class horse which is Maybe. There is no
doubt that this horse is something a little bit special, she is unbeaten so far
in her career having already accumulated nearly £230,000 in prize
money. She has beaten the likes of Fire Lily, La Collina and Lightening
Pearl so should therefore be difficult to beat but the question on everyone's
lips is will she win? Well lets start by looking at a few key trends, firstly
she has had 5 runs in the last year which is a major tick in the
negative column but that is pretty much the only one she has. Obviously
there is a slight question-mark as to whether she will be able to
negotiate the step up in trip, but being out of Galileo I would say it’s
a certainty. If anything I believe her biggest problem may well be the raw
speed of some of the other horses when the races gets into the business end and
the holdup performers come to the floor. O'Brien will no doubt look to
counteract this by employing a pace setter though and whoever
is chosen to fulfill that role will probably set off very, very fast
in attempt to make it a real test. Personally I think the horse has every right
to be the favorite but like Camelot in the 2000's I wouldn't want to be backing
her at such a short price and realistically she will definitely drift out in
running due to her running style so if punters are looking to back her then that’s
when you want to lump on.
So in conclusion this race
promises to be a real cracker and there are plenty with live wire chances.
Personally my e/w bet against the field would be DISCOURSE but I will wait
until Jockey bookings/stalls draws are decided before having a punt. For those
looking to find some real e/w value I would probably view THE FUGUE as a
reasonable bet but she is an unknown quantity and wouldn't be a horse that I
would want to have too much riding on.
I hope that you find this
article to be informative and hopefully it leads you and I to winner, but if
not I've had fun writing it and I'm sure that someone will uses these key
trends to good effect.
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