A mixed bag of results today but I did manage to achieve a small profit which is all that counts. I have a big bet lined up tomorrow and you definitely don't want to miss this one.
Starting Bank = 601.21
Total Bets placed = 40 points
Total Return = 44 points
Starting Bank for tomorrow = 605.21 points
Monday, 30 April 2012
7:25 Wolverhampton
No info in is race but I have had a good luck at all of the runners and the stand out horse for me is Dazzling Valentine. The horse has CD form and has only been raised 2lb for his last win in Class 5 company. The stable is bang in form and having already ensured profit for today with one bet left to run I have decided to have 5pts on this one to win at 5/1.
4:15 Kempton
LAUGHING JACK (9/1) - I've just had a very strong word for this horse from a very reliable source who gets bits of info from this yard every now and again. I'm going to hold out until after the first few races before having a bet but if the course looks to be riding well and the money comes for it, I will definitely be having a punt on this one and I will update my bank at that time.
Today's Selections and Info (30.04.12)
Following the washout at Windsor we are now facing the prospect of an AW card, with a hat full of maidens at Kempton and some very poor looking races at Wolves, things don't look great from a betting perspective and once again I will be lowering my stakes
Kempton Selections
2:15 - VANTAA (9/1) - 5 pt win and 7pt place at 2/1 - See yesterdays write up
3:15 - MISSISSIPPI (4/1) - 5pt win - This horse has been the subject of some very positive reports and the yard have made a good start to the season. The horse made one appearance last year and it was in a very hot looking maiden at the Curragh. The horse finished 9th that day but was heavily punted before the off and was probably beaten by a combination of a wide draw and terrible conditions. Mississippi has subsequently moved from the Weld yard to Meehan stable but has been retained by his high profile owner. A big run is forecast today and with a race under his belt this Exceed and Excel progeny should go well today.
3:45 - CYNTHIA CALHOUN (10/1) - 1.5pts e/w - Now this has all the makings of a wide open maiden and both horses at the head of the market have come in for support this morning, but I fancy my selection to run well. The horse has a nice pedigree and was sent to Goodwood to make its debut last year. The horse showed obvious signs of greeness but ran a reasonable race to finish 9th, she travelled well after missing the break and did really well to finish where she did considering she hung through out. Like Mississipi her sire does ok at the venue and the trainer has had a good start to the campaign. her wide draw does dampen my confidence slightly but I still think she holds solid claims. The Hill's runner Litmus is not considered to be a world beater, will probably need the run and will want further in time but may be able to run into some place money.
4:15 - DYNASTY (14/1) - 1pt e/w - For me this horse is massively overpriced, the racing post and numerous other publications would lead you to believe that the horse didn't see out the trip last time out on his first try over 1m 3f, but I am not of the same opinion. He clearly bumped into two very useful types that day as the second placed horse won next time out and the first placed horse ran a really good race in Class 2 company at Ponte. The winning time of his last race was pretty quick as well considering the calibre of the race and back in same age company today I believe this horse will go very close to winning.
Wolverhampton Selections
8:25 - JINKER NOBLE (7/1) - 4 pts e/w - This is probably my stand out bet of the day and I really fancy this one to win this race. Although the likes of UPRISE, WEST LEAKE (fancied e/w by the Hills Yard) and BARTOLOMEU will be difficult to beat there is no doubt for me that this is the obvious selection. The horse is related to plenty of AW winners and will have improved significantly for his seasonal debut earlier in the month. He is apparently very well fancied by the yard and if you are going to follow me on this selection then I suggest you get on a soon as possible because if what I have heard is true then this one will be punted before the off.
So that confirms today's selections and I won't be having any further bets unless I receive some info.
Starting Bank = 601.21pts
Bets Placed = 30.00pts
Kempton Selections
2:15 - VANTAA (9/1) - 5 pt win and 7pt place at 2/1 - See yesterdays write up
3:15 - MISSISSIPPI (4/1) - 5pt win - This horse has been the subject of some very positive reports and the yard have made a good start to the season. The horse made one appearance last year and it was in a very hot looking maiden at the Curragh. The horse finished 9th that day but was heavily punted before the off and was probably beaten by a combination of a wide draw and terrible conditions. Mississippi has subsequently moved from the Weld yard to Meehan stable but has been retained by his high profile owner. A big run is forecast today and with a race under his belt this Exceed and Excel progeny should go well today.
3:45 - CYNTHIA CALHOUN (10/1) - 1.5pts e/w - Now this has all the makings of a wide open maiden and both horses at the head of the market have come in for support this morning, but I fancy my selection to run well. The horse has a nice pedigree and was sent to Goodwood to make its debut last year. The horse showed obvious signs of greeness but ran a reasonable race to finish 9th, she travelled well after missing the break and did really well to finish where she did considering she hung through out. Like Mississipi her sire does ok at the venue and the trainer has had a good start to the campaign. her wide draw does dampen my confidence slightly but I still think she holds solid claims. The Hill's runner Litmus is not considered to be a world beater, will probably need the run and will want further in time but may be able to run into some place money.
4:15 - DYNASTY (14/1) - 1pt e/w - For me this horse is massively overpriced, the racing post and numerous other publications would lead you to believe that the horse didn't see out the trip last time out on his first try over 1m 3f, but I am not of the same opinion. He clearly bumped into two very useful types that day as the second placed horse won next time out and the first placed horse ran a really good race in Class 2 company at Ponte. The winning time of his last race was pretty quick as well considering the calibre of the race and back in same age company today I believe this horse will go very close to winning.
Wolverhampton Selections
8:25 - JINKER NOBLE (7/1) - 4 pts e/w - This is probably my stand out bet of the day and I really fancy this one to win this race. Although the likes of UPRISE, WEST LEAKE (fancied e/w by the Hills Yard) and BARTOLOMEU will be difficult to beat there is no doubt for me that this is the obvious selection. The horse is related to plenty of AW winners and will have improved significantly for his seasonal debut earlier in the month. He is apparently very well fancied by the yard and if you are going to follow me on this selection then I suggest you get on a soon as possible because if what I have heard is true then this one will be punted before the off.
So that confirms today's selections and I won't be having any further bets unless I receive some info.
Starting Bank = 601.21pts
Bets Placed = 30.00pts
Sunday, 29 April 2012
Early Info for Tomorrow
Firstly I need to point out that this info is from an untried and untested source so proceed with caution.
The horse is called VANTAA and it runs in the opener at Kempton tomorrow, he steps up in trip for the first time and this once expensive purchase, who is owned by the trainer is expected to take all the beating. If he wins tomorrow the horse will then be turned out quickly under a penalty and will take up an engagement at Musselburgh on the 4th May (claimer onboard) and will apparently be competitive there as well.
Having looked at the horse very closely I believe there is good reason to believe that this source may be correct, the horses pedigree suggests that he needs further than 6-7f and being a Shamardal progeny he will have no problem with the Kempton course (Sire 24% strike rate there). The jockey doesn't have the best of records with his 4yo mounts at the track but his overall record over CD is very good and he is quite capable of out riding the likes of Fallon, Callan etc if he has a good horse beneath him.
As far as the betting goes the majority of the markets are yet to form but Paddy Power have priced the horse up at 11/2 which is staggering considering his tissue price was estimated at 20/1. I put 5 points down on the exchanges at 9/1 which has been matched but am yet to take a decision as to whether or not to stake a place bet. At the moment the place price on the exchanges is around 15/8 but I'm hoping that will ease slightly as money comes for the likes of Sergeant Bay, Prince of Passion and Matavia Bay. For that reason I'm going to hold out on that bet for a little longer, but if it hits anything bigger than 2/1 I will probably have a further 10 points and hope for the best.
Whatever happens I'm intrigued to see how this horse runs and it looks to have a chance on my analysis but with 15 points potentially riding on the horse, it better run a big race.
Best of luck if you follow and the rest of tomorrows bets will be posted up before lunch time.
The horse is called VANTAA and it runs in the opener at Kempton tomorrow, he steps up in trip for the first time and this once expensive purchase, who is owned by the trainer is expected to take all the beating. If he wins tomorrow the horse will then be turned out quickly under a penalty and will take up an engagement at Musselburgh on the 4th May (claimer onboard) and will apparently be competitive there as well.
Having looked at the horse very closely I believe there is good reason to believe that this source may be correct, the horses pedigree suggests that he needs further than 6-7f and being a Shamardal progeny he will have no problem with the Kempton course (Sire 24% strike rate there). The jockey doesn't have the best of records with his 4yo mounts at the track but his overall record over CD is very good and he is quite capable of out riding the likes of Fallon, Callan etc if he has a good horse beneath him.
As far as the betting goes the majority of the markets are yet to form but Paddy Power have priced the horse up at 11/2 which is staggering considering his tissue price was estimated at 20/1. I put 5 points down on the exchanges at 9/1 which has been matched but am yet to take a decision as to whether or not to stake a place bet. At the moment the place price on the exchanges is around 15/8 but I'm hoping that will ease slightly as money comes for the likes of Sergeant Bay, Prince of Passion and Matavia Bay. For that reason I'm going to hold out on that bet for a little longer, but if it hits anything bigger than 2/1 I will probably have a further 10 points and hope for the best.
Whatever happens I'm intrigued to see how this horse runs and it looks to have a chance on my analysis but with 15 points potentially riding on the horse, it better run a big race.
Best of luck if you follow and the rest of tomorrows bets will be posted up before lunch time.
Final Score (29/04/12)
All was looking a bit grim until the lucky last when the info horse won very well (advised bet =15pts at 9/4) and we also landed the CSF (20.21pts) to result in another tidy profit on the day.
Starting Bank = 581.25 points
Total bets placed = 49 points
Total Return = 68.96 points
Starting Bank for tomorrow = 601.21 points
Starting Bank = 581.25 points
Total bets placed = 49 points
Total Return = 68.96 points
Starting Bank for tomorrow = 601.21 points
Lucky Last Ludlow
Unlucky day so far today as my first two selections finished second. I have had a big word for MONKEY KINGDOM in the bumper at 5:30, the horse is ready to go and is thought to be suited by the current conditions. I was a bit weary to back the horse due to the presence of the Henderson runner but with that horse now out of the equation this looks like a good bet and I've had 15 points at 9/4. I have also had 2pts e/w on a CSF with MICKIE.
Bank = 532.25
Bank = 532.25
Today's Selections (29/04/12)
Terrible day for finding winners today and for that reason I will be lowering my stakes significantly.
Starting Bank = 581.25
2:10 Ludlow - QUARTON (4/1) - 5pt win - This horse has been disappointing since moving yards but he has been running on ground which will have been far from ideal and now looks well handicapped having been rated at 116 during his time in Ireland. He has always raced a tad keenly and therefore the application of Cheekpieces should aid his cause. The presence of TAYARAT (confirmed front runner who has been backed by connections) should give him a good pace to aim at and not many people ride Ludlow better that Moloney.
2:45 Ludlow - TAKE OF SHOC'S (2/1) - 10 pt win - The Nicholls horse was going to be my NAP of the day but following his withdrawal this looks like a match up between my selection and the Williams horse. It was definitely a close call between the two but TOS running style should be perfect for the track at Ludlow and be a Beneficial progeny he should be capable of carrying the additional weight and will not be inconvenienced by the mud.
I will also be having a 3 point double with the 2 selections above.
4:25 Navan - HARTSIDE (25/1) - 1pt e/w - My man in Ireland has links to this stable and gave me a big tip for URSA MAJOR when it won LTO. Hartside has shown a good degree of promise at home and is expected to benefit from the soft ground and the application of blinkers. Although he will never be a world beater and is not a horse to get too carried away with, he if it gets a bit of luck in running he is apparently capable of getting a place. As far as Ursa Major is concerned he is quietly fancied to get a place but with only 4 runners going to post I wont be backing him.
So at the moment that is it for today unless I receive some info from my man Ireland. Hopefully I can add to my profit for the last 2 days but it looks like a very difficult days racing for the average punter.
Total points placed = 20 points
Bank = 561.25
Starting Bank = 581.25
2:10 Ludlow - QUARTON (4/1) - 5pt win - This horse has been disappointing since moving yards but he has been running on ground which will have been far from ideal and now looks well handicapped having been rated at 116 during his time in Ireland. He has always raced a tad keenly and therefore the application of Cheekpieces should aid his cause. The presence of TAYARAT (confirmed front runner who has been backed by connections) should give him a good pace to aim at and not many people ride Ludlow better that Moloney.
2:45 Ludlow - TAKE OF SHOC'S (2/1) - 10 pt win - The Nicholls horse was going to be my NAP of the day but following his withdrawal this looks like a match up between my selection and the Williams horse. It was definitely a close call between the two but TOS running style should be perfect for the track at Ludlow and be a Beneficial progeny he should be capable of carrying the additional weight and will not be inconvenienced by the mud.
I will also be having a 3 point double with the 2 selections above.
4:25 Navan - HARTSIDE (25/1) - 1pt e/w - My man in Ireland has links to this stable and gave me a big tip for URSA MAJOR when it won LTO. Hartside has shown a good degree of promise at home and is expected to benefit from the soft ground and the application of blinkers. Although he will never be a world beater and is not a horse to get too carried away with, he if it gets a bit of luck in running he is apparently capable of getting a place. As far as Ursa Major is concerned he is quietly fancied to get a place but with only 4 runners going to post I wont be backing him.
So at the moment that is it for today unless I receive some info from my man Ireland. Hopefully I can add to my profit for the last 2 days but it looks like a very difficult days racing for the average punter.
Total points placed = 20 points
Bank = 561.25
Saturday, 28 April 2012
Today's Final Score
So the tale of today's tape is as follows;
Starting Bank = 552 points
Total Bets Placed = 67 points
Total Return = 96.25 points
Total Profit = 29.25
Starting Bank For Tomorrow = 581.25 points
Starting Bank = 552 points
Total Bets Placed = 67 points
Total Return = 96.25 points
Total Profit = 29.25
Starting Bank For Tomorrow = 581.25 points
7:55 Haydock
Very interesting little race this and obviously a few of the runners are being backed, one such horse is CHESTER ARISTOCRAT who has all the makings of a possible handicap plot, but personally I think he needs further than a mile so despite the strong market support I wont be backing him. Furthermore if you take a literal approach to his last run then surely TAKE TWO is better value at 16/1. As for the rest of the runners the Varian horse obviously deserves considerable respect, but the yard hasnt really kicked into gear yet and I wouldn't want to be on him at 3/1. The Ryan horse has been uneasy in the market and that is always a bad sign with this particular connections and the Johnston horse is starting to look a bit exposed. For those reason the horse I will be backing e/w at a very nice price of 14/1 is WOLF SPIRIT. He won two races ago and looks like a horse who will like a bit of cut in the ground (despite a few negative points in his pedigree). He has been gelded since leaving the Ryan yard and although he was a reasonably cheap purchase, his new trainer usually gets plenty of improvement out of these types of horse. I'm not going to get too carried away bet I will have 2.50pts e/w on my selection and hope for the best.
Info horse at Doncaster
6:40 Doncaster - ASIFA (9/1) - Very strong e/w message for this horse, through a guy with connections to the Bell camp (bit strange i know) horse is thought to have a good chance in the race and plenty have backed him. I dont like this kind of third hand info so i'm going to give it a miss but will be interested to see how he runs. Else where on the card the Bell runner in the last is seriously well fancied and at 9/4 the horse is thought to be excellent value. The advice from my guy was to lump on but I will be making a decision on this one a bit closer to the off.
Haydock 6:25
RUSTY ROCKET (7/1) looks like a very interesting runner here, he is far from straight forward and tends to hang a bit but with race fitness and Joe Fanning on his side I think he looks like a good e/w bet. I'm going to go for 5points on e/w on this one.
Bank now stands at 530.50
Bank now stands at 530.50
IRISH INFO
4:30 - UT DE SIVOLA (7/1 Betfair) - This horse is thought to have a very good chance of winning the race, you can ignore his last performance against Hisaabaat in Ireland and he wasn't quite right at Cheltenham but he is primed for his race today. He will love the ground and plenty in the yard are taking a punt on this one. Plenty of e/w value at around 7/1 with most firms and although the FAV will be hard to beat I will have 10pts on this one to win.
Current Bank = 552.50
Bet = 10pt win Ut De Sivola at 7/1
Also have a runner lined up for Donny later but I'm off out for an early dinner so will post that one up when I get home.
Current Bank = 552.50
Bet = 10pt win Ut De Sivola at 7/1
Also have a runner lined up for Donny later but I'm off out for an early dinner so will post that one up when I get home.
Todays Selections (28/04/12)
Interesting days racing today and some really nice betting prospects.
Bank = 550 points
Sandown Selections
1:30 - SADDLERS RISK (7/1) - 5pt win - Now I know there is every chance that this horse will flop on the soft ground but he has been a horse which I have followed this season and he is rated a staggering 11lb better than his nearest competitor Lexi's Boy who on cross form with the likes of Otto the Great is probably even further behind SR than that. Obviously the french imports from the Henderson, Nicholls and Williams yard will be very difficult to beat (Nicholls horse probably the best of the 3) but even with ground which isn't against him, I believe Saddlers may just have the class to hold of all challengers.
3:10 - TIDAL BAY (12/1) - 2.5pts e/w - Like Saddlers Risk earlier on the card I am backing this horse because he is by far the best horse in the field by a country mile. This race presents his weakest task in a long, and he is the only horse carrying more than 11st to have actually completed LTO. The record of non finishers in their last appearance is very poor in this race and therefore I'm happy to discard the likes of WEST END ROCKER, GALAXY ROCK, etc. The only horse not to complete LTO who may have a chance today is Rare Bob who meets a few key trends and thrives on soft ground so he should be considered. Elsewhere in the line up the likes of LE BEAU BAI, DOVERS HILL and POALCO DE FARGES meet 90% of the key trends and should be carefully considered but today I'm going to side with the class act and hope that Tidal Bay runs a good race and confirms his superiority over this second class field.
3:45 - TWICE OVER (2/1) - 10pt win - This horse has won me a lot of money over the years and although his run LTO was disappointing he was always going to need that outing to freshen him up. Obviously the ground is a complete unknown but his trainer seems to suggest that he will handle it and on his day he is still superior to anything else in the field. He has a CD win to his name and although the Cox horse will give him a run for his money I think Twice Over represents value at 2/1.
Punchestown Selections
3:15 - RUBY LIGHT (5/2) - 20pt win - No matter how many times I analyze this race I always come to the same conclusion, Ruby Light wins. The horse meets all of the key trends, is at home in testing conditions and he is completely unexposed at todays trips. Following his recent run against the legendary Synchronized we all know that 3m+ is well within his compass and with a few question-marks surrounding QUEL ESPRIT, I believe this horse has winner written all over it.
That completes my selections for today although I am waiting for a call from my source in Ireland and no doubt he will have at least one info horse at Punchestown for today and having hit two winners yesterday he is in fine form. I will post his selection/s up as soon as I hear from him together with stakes and advice.
Starting Bank = 550 points
Bets Placed = 40 points
Bank = 550 points
Sandown Selections
1:30 - SADDLERS RISK (7/1) - 5pt win - Now I know there is every chance that this horse will flop on the soft ground but he has been a horse which I have followed this season and he is rated a staggering 11lb better than his nearest competitor Lexi's Boy who on cross form with the likes of Otto the Great is probably even further behind SR than that. Obviously the french imports from the Henderson, Nicholls and Williams yard will be very difficult to beat (Nicholls horse probably the best of the 3) but even with ground which isn't against him, I believe Saddlers may just have the class to hold of all challengers.
3:10 - TIDAL BAY (12/1) - 2.5pts e/w - Like Saddlers Risk earlier on the card I am backing this horse because he is by far the best horse in the field by a country mile. This race presents his weakest task in a long, and he is the only horse carrying more than 11st to have actually completed LTO. The record of non finishers in their last appearance is very poor in this race and therefore I'm happy to discard the likes of WEST END ROCKER, GALAXY ROCK, etc. The only horse not to complete LTO who may have a chance today is Rare Bob who meets a few key trends and thrives on soft ground so he should be considered. Elsewhere in the line up the likes of LE BEAU BAI, DOVERS HILL and POALCO DE FARGES meet 90% of the key trends and should be carefully considered but today I'm going to side with the class act and hope that Tidal Bay runs a good race and confirms his superiority over this second class field.
3:45 - TWICE OVER (2/1) - 10pt win - This horse has won me a lot of money over the years and although his run LTO was disappointing he was always going to need that outing to freshen him up. Obviously the ground is a complete unknown but his trainer seems to suggest that he will handle it and on his day he is still superior to anything else in the field. He has a CD win to his name and although the Cox horse will give him a run for his money I think Twice Over represents value at 2/1.
Punchestown Selections
3:15 - RUBY LIGHT (5/2) - 20pt win - No matter how many times I analyze this race I always come to the same conclusion, Ruby Light wins. The horse meets all of the key trends, is at home in testing conditions and he is completely unexposed at todays trips. Following his recent run against the legendary Synchronized we all know that 3m+ is well within his compass and with a few question-marks surrounding QUEL ESPRIT, I believe this horse has winner written all over it.
That completes my selections for today although I am waiting for a call from my source in Ireland and no doubt he will have at least one info horse at Punchestown for today and having hit two winners yesterday he is in fine form. I will post his selection/s up as soon as I hear from him together with stakes and advice.
Starting Bank = 550 points
Bets Placed = 40 points
Friday, 27 April 2012
Plumpton Info
The Longsdon horse OVERDANTE is well fancied in the last race on the card and plenty in the yard have had a bet on him. I'm calling it a day but if you fancy having a punt I think you can still get 9/2 with some firms and he should run a good race although the Pipe horse will be difficult to beat.
Final Score
How quickly things can change in horse racing, at around 4:00 today I was staring down the barrel of a losing day and had received some rather abusive comments and emails, but after 2 races at Punchestown I'm now well an truly in profit for the day, and thats what its all about. Some short sighted punters seem to forget that horse racing is all about the long game and losers are irrelevant as long as you maintain a consistent level of profit from your daily selections.
Todays Final Score
Starting Bank = 500 points
Bets placed = 70 points
Bet return = 122 points
End Bank = 552 points
My man at Punchestown has been awesome today and has supplied winners at 6/1 and 11/2 (price when word was received) and he may have another one to come later on the card as well, so watch out for that.
Final bet at punchestown is for WAY UP IN THE AIR (25/1) E/W - I will be having 1 point e/w on this one only as it looks like a very difficult race to call
P.S for those asking why the bet was changed on Lucky William it was due to the non runners and the stake was altered well in advance of the race. Even those who followed the original staking plan would have posted profit of 22 points today.
Todays Final Score
Starting Bank = 500 points
Bets placed = 70 points
Bet return = 122 points
End Bank = 552 points
My man at Punchestown has been awesome today and has supplied winners at 6/1 and 11/2 (price when word was received) and he may have another one to come later on the card as well, so watch out for that.
Final bet at punchestown is for WAY UP IN THE AIR (25/1) E/W - I will be having 1 point e/w on this one only as it looks like a very difficult race to call
P.S for those asking why the bet was changed on Lucky William it was due to the non runners and the stake was altered well in advance of the race. Even those who followed the original staking plan would have posted profit of 22 points today.
Today's Selections/Info
I've had a few requests from readers asking if I could give a few examples of how I bet on my selections so today we will be starting with a 500pt betting bank. I will keep a record of the bets/stakes for the next 7 days and we will see where we end up.
Starting Bank = 500 pts
1:15 Sandown = RAFEEJ (1/1) - 20 points staked - This bet carries my maximum confidence which would usually be 4% of my betting balance, although stakes would increase in accordance with the price. The reason for my confidence behind the horse is pretty obvious, he is proven on heavy ground, clearly has plenty of room to progress having be awarded a mark of 87 and hails from a yard which is still bang in form. Although he will want a bit further in time, up against this kind of opposition his class should shine through.
2:35 Perth = NODEBATABOUTIT (9/2) - 10 points staked - This horse is a progressive chaser who I have backed on both of his last two runs, he loves a bit of cut in the ground and looks like a nice little prospect. The step up in trip shouldn't be a problem and he has had a break to freshen him up so should be primed for a good run today.
2:45 Doncaster = VIZEAN - 2 point win at 17.00 and 3 point place at 4.4 - I received a call about this horse last night and a much better run is apparently expected today. The horse has shortened significantly in the market since I posted last night though (8.6 on betfair) and I'm not sure I would want to get involved at that kind of price.
2:55 Sandown = OOJAABA (3/1) = 10 point win - This horse is very highly thought of and is expected to really come into her own this season, she will have no problem with the ground and the step up in trip will really suit. Strong word received.
3:20 Doncaster = POWERFUL WIN - 2 point win at 9/1 and 3 point place at 11/4 - This horse is a system qualifier, he is a sole front runner in a small field and with a claimer on board he may just have be able to make all.
4:55 Punchestown = LUCKY WILLIAM (6/1) = 10 point win - Received some info for this horse when it was due to run earlier in the week and on the basis of the key trends for this race I think this horse has a massive chance of beating those horses at the head of the market.
5:50 Chepstow = DINARIUS (5/2) = 10 Point win - This horse with plenty in hand last time out over course and distance and has clearly benefit from a change of scenery. He has been raised 13lb as a result of that win but the second placed horse did win next time out so he could still be well in if that win wasn't just a one off. He handles the ground, loves the venue and I'm sure the trainer hasn't made the long trip from cornwall for nothing. (NON RUNNER)
7:25 Plumpton - BLUE HILLS (2/1) = 10 point win - This horse is seeking a hatrick today and connections are confident that he will complete the 3 timer. (NON RUNNER)
Due to the late withdrawals of Blue Hills and Dinarius a further 8 points has been placed on Degiout in the 6:05 at Punchestown at 11/2. This horse is an info horse from the same source who gave me the impressive winner Lucky William earlier on the card and he looks to have a great chance provided that the race is run at an even gallop and I'm hoping Benefficient will see that it is. I have also put 2pts on a reverse forecast with LYREEN LEGEND .
Total points staked = 70
Bank = 430 points
Starting Bank = 500 pts
1:15 Sandown = RAFEEJ (1/1) - 20 points staked - This bet carries my maximum confidence which would usually be 4% of my betting balance, although stakes would increase in accordance with the price. The reason for my confidence behind the horse is pretty obvious, he is proven on heavy ground, clearly has plenty of room to progress having be awarded a mark of 87 and hails from a yard which is still bang in form. Although he will want a bit further in time, up against this kind of opposition his class should shine through.
2:35 Perth = NODEBATABOUTIT (9/2) - 10 points staked - This horse is a progressive chaser who I have backed on both of his last two runs, he loves a bit of cut in the ground and looks like a nice little prospect. The step up in trip shouldn't be a problem and he has had a break to freshen him up so should be primed for a good run today.
2:45 Doncaster = VIZEAN - 2 point win at 17.00 and 3 point place at 4.4 - I received a call about this horse last night and a much better run is apparently expected today. The horse has shortened significantly in the market since I posted last night though (8.6 on betfair) and I'm not sure I would want to get involved at that kind of price.
2:55 Sandown = OOJAABA (3/1) = 10 point win - This horse is very highly thought of and is expected to really come into her own this season, she will have no problem with the ground and the step up in trip will really suit. Strong word received.
3:20 Doncaster = POWERFUL WIN - 2 point win at 9/1 and 3 point place at 11/4 - This horse is a system qualifier, he is a sole front runner in a small field and with a claimer on board he may just have be able to make all.
4:55 Punchestown = LUCKY WILLIAM (6/1) = 10 point win - Received some info for this horse when it was due to run earlier in the week and on the basis of the key trends for this race I think this horse has a massive chance of beating those horses at the head of the market.
5:50 Chepstow = DINARIUS (5/2) = 10 Point win - This horse with plenty in hand last time out over course and distance and has clearly benefit from a change of scenery. He has been raised 13lb as a result of that win but the second placed horse did win next time out so he could still be well in if that win wasn't just a one off. He handles the ground, loves the venue and I'm sure the trainer hasn't made the long trip from cornwall for nothing. (NON RUNNER)
7:25 Plumpton - BLUE HILLS (2/1) = 10 point win - This horse is seeking a hatrick today and connections are confident that he will complete the 3 timer. (NON RUNNER)
Due to the late withdrawals of Blue Hills and Dinarius a further 8 points has been placed on Degiout in the 6:05 at Punchestown at 11/2. This horse is an info horse from the same source who gave me the impressive winner Lucky William earlier on the card and he looks to have a great chance provided that the race is run at an even gallop and I'm hoping Benefficient will see that it is. I have also put 2pts on a reverse forecast with LYREEN LEGEND .
Total points staked = 70
Bank = 430 points
Thursday, 26 April 2012
Early Selection for tomorrow
1:15 Sandown - RAFEEJ (EVENS) - ***** Rating - First five star rated bet on the blog and I'm maxing out on this one.
2:45 Doncaster - VIZEAN - 17.0/4.4 Betfair - ** Rating - I've split my stake 40/60 in favour of a place.
More selections and detailed write ups to follow tomorrow together with full details of the upcoming competition.
The Day So Far
Incredibly frustrating day so far as all 4 of my personal selections all finished in the first 3 but couldn't win! When its not your day its not your day.
As far as the Irish info goes, the Bolger second string DOCTOR PAT is fancied to run a big race in the marathon and is apparently a value e/w bet but SADDLERS STORM is the real talking horse at the course. Later on the card the Mullins second string in the World Hurdle MOURAD has been backed e/w by a few people in the yard. Although my man at the track has heard good things I will not be backing either of his selections and my only other bet tonight will be ROYAL DEFENSE in the 5:40.
As far as the Irish info goes, the Bolger second string DOCTOR PAT is fancied to run a big race in the marathon and is apparently a value e/w bet but SADDLERS STORM is the real talking horse at the course. Later on the card the Mullins second string in the World Hurdle MOURAD has been backed e/w by a few people in the yard. Although my man at the track has heard good things I will not be backing either of his selections and my only other bet tonight will be ROYAL DEFENSE in the 5:40.
2 e/w messages
Two e/w info words received;
4:35 Brighton - FICELLE (6/1)
4:40 Perth - ST KILLIANS RUN (15/2)
From a form point of view both look to have strong claims and I especially like the look of St Killians under Maguire although I do fear Los Nadis as he has the highest speed rating in the race and has a good record at Perth. IN my opinion a lot will depend on which horse gets to the front first. In the 4:35 the fav will be difficult to beat but Ficelle is definitely the best of the rest and the yard are apparently quietly confident of upsetting the apple cart.
4:35 Brighton - FICELLE (6/1)
4:40 Perth - ST KILLIANS RUN (15/2)
From a form point of view both look to have strong claims and I especially like the look of St Killians under Maguire although I do fear Los Nadis as he has the highest speed rating in the race and has a good record at Perth. IN my opinion a lot will depend on which horse gets to the front first. In the 4:35 the fav will be difficult to beat but Ficelle is definitely the best of the rest and the yard are apparently quietly confident of upsetting the apple cart.
Today's Selections
Obviously with today's terrible conditions and 2 meetings being abandoned its proving to be quite difficult to find potential winners. For that reason I will only be picking four potential selections today together with one info bet from Ireland (same source as Mozolotov).
Wolves 2:20 - Steelcut (5/2) - *** Rating - This horse is a proven CD performer who will always given you a run for your money at this track. Although he has a lot to do at the weights to beat the favourite I personally think that the Carr runner may be vulnerable. Obviously CD shouldn't be a problem for the Redcape but he has never won in April and is also 0 from 7 runs in fields this small. For those reason I believe it could pay to take him on and with the Evans yard boasting a fine record in selling company I believe that Steelcut is the horse to be on.
Wolves 3:20 - Overrule (10/3) - ** Rating - Now this has to be seen as a speculative selection but this horse has a lot in his favour and if this race was at Southwell then he would clearly be a short priced favourite. His current position in the market is largely due to the fact that he is untried at Wolves but his Sire has a good record there and Overrule has also won over further than today distance which will no doubt be beneficial considering that 1m 4f is bound to turn into a test of stamina in the current conditions. With Fallon's booked I'm happy to have a small win bet on this one but I wouldn't be surprised if Stand Guard ends up taking the prize.
Wolves 5:00 - Russian Storm (7/4) *** Rating - Like Overrule this horse would be shorter in the market if the race was taking place at an alternative venue (Lingfield) but if he can translate his form at that track today then she should have too much for her rivals. This mares Sire has a good record at Wolverhampton and I can see the drop in trip being too much if an issue against this opposition. Morgan is a quality jockey and knows what it takes to ride a winner at the track and that's exactly what I expect him to do. Those punter looking for an ew alternative should pay close attention to Flying Phoneix who is apparently well fancied by Her years to at least place.
3:30 Perth - Degas Art (13/2) *** Rating - This horse looks to be massively overpriced to me, He has won at the track, won on soft ground, is best in small fields (7 runs 4 wins), has a win to his name in class 2 opposition, goes best after breaks of between 16-30 days (8 runs 4 wins), has previously won carrying today's weight And hails from a yard which is one of just two stables represented in the race to have actually won at the track! For all those reasons 13/2 looks way too big and this looks like a nice bet.
Irish info horse will follow slightly later on as everyone is waiting on the weather. I also have news of an up coming competition where all my readers will get the opportunity to win two tickets to won of this summers big flat meetings.. It will be completely free to enter and I will explain it all in greater detail later on.
Best of luck with your bets today and proceed with caution as anything can happen in these conditions.
Wolves 2:20 - Steelcut (5/2) - *** Rating - This horse is a proven CD performer who will always given you a run for your money at this track. Although he has a lot to do at the weights to beat the favourite I personally think that the Carr runner may be vulnerable. Obviously CD shouldn't be a problem for the Redcape but he has never won in April and is also 0 from 7 runs in fields this small. For those reason I believe it could pay to take him on and with the Evans yard boasting a fine record in selling company I believe that Steelcut is the horse to be on.
Wolves 3:20 - Overrule (10/3) - ** Rating - Now this has to be seen as a speculative selection but this horse has a lot in his favour and if this race was at Southwell then he would clearly be a short priced favourite. His current position in the market is largely due to the fact that he is untried at Wolves but his Sire has a good record there and Overrule has also won over further than today distance which will no doubt be beneficial considering that 1m 4f is bound to turn into a test of stamina in the current conditions. With Fallon's booked I'm happy to have a small win bet on this one but I wouldn't be surprised if Stand Guard ends up taking the prize.
Wolves 5:00 - Russian Storm (7/4) *** Rating - Like Overrule this horse would be shorter in the market if the race was taking place at an alternative venue (Lingfield) but if he can translate his form at that track today then she should have too much for her rivals. This mares Sire has a good record at Wolverhampton and I can see the drop in trip being too much if an issue against this opposition. Morgan is a quality jockey and knows what it takes to ride a winner at the track and that's exactly what I expect him to do. Those punter looking for an ew alternative should pay close attention to Flying Phoneix who is apparently well fancied by Her years to at least place.
3:30 Perth - Degas Art (13/2) *** Rating - This horse looks to be massively overpriced to me, He has won at the track, won on soft ground, is best in small fields (7 runs 4 wins), has a win to his name in class 2 opposition, goes best after breaks of between 16-30 days (8 runs 4 wins), has previously won carrying today's weight And hails from a yard which is one of just two stables represented in the race to have actually won at the track! For all those reasons 13/2 looks way too big and this looks like a nice bet.
Irish info horse will follow slightly later on as everyone is waiting on the weather. I also have news of an up coming competition where all my readers will get the opportunity to win two tickets to won of this summers big flat meetings.. It will be completely free to enter and I will explain it all in greater detail later on.
Best of luck with your bets today and proceed with caution as anything can happen in these conditions.
Wednesday, 25 April 2012
Kempton Handicap Plot
Right I haven't got the confirmation call yet but I'm going to post the horse now because the price is evaporating fast. The horse is HOLLY MARTINS and it runs in the 7:55. I lumped on this one earlier on at 20/1 and the price is now as short as 10/1 with some firms. It looks like a difficult race to call so I would advise that people air on the side of caution but this horse is thought to have a very strong chance of winning this.
Best of luck
Punchestown Info
Info from Ireland has just come through and it looks like a cracker! The horse runs in the bumper at 6:05 and its not any of the fancied runners at the head of the market. The talking horse is apparently MOZOLTOV (12/1) and I have awarded this one a ** Rating. Once again I have looked at the race in great detail and I have to say that I really fancy this one especially as the ground is deteriorating by the second! He meets all key trends, loves heavy ground, should be perfectly at home on the track and has a jockey on board who knows how to win a bumper. Word from my source was strong and I have had a mid-stake e/w bet on this one.
Elsewhere on the card for those feeling really brave, it may be worth having a small e/w bet on CAIM HILL (massive prices on the exchanges) in the opening race of the day. Its not often that I would back a horse with so many PU's next to its name but when you isolate its record without blinkers its actually pretty reasonable. He likes tracks like Punchestown (right handed, undulating), has won on soft ground, has won twice from 3 runs when carrying 11st 7lb (todays weight) and has run well fresh in the past. I'm not saying for a second that anyone should place more than a few quid ew on him but who knows he may just outrun his odds at a very nice price, alternatively he could get another PU next to his name.
Elsewhere on the card for those feeling really brave, it may be worth having a small e/w bet on CAIM HILL (massive prices on the exchanges) in the opening race of the day. Its not often that I would back a horse with so many PU's next to its name but when you isolate its record without blinkers its actually pretty reasonable. He likes tracks like Punchestown (right handed, undulating), has won on soft ground, has won twice from 3 runs when carrying 11st 7lb (todays weight) and has run well fresh in the past. I'm not saying for a second that anyone should place more than a few quid ew on him but who knows he may just outrun his odds at a very nice price, alternatively he could get another PU next to his name.
3:20 Epsom Info
Sods law having put the Gosden runner Unex Michelangelo in a double I get a phone call for the Varian horse CAMERON HIGHLAND (7/4). My source has told me that connections have been lumping on this one and he is expected to make a winning reappearance. Looking at the race as a whole he clearly has a strong chance, he meets all key trends (last time out winner, making season debut, first 4 in the market, drawn stall 4, OR of 90 etc), his Sire has a good record at the track and on soft ground, at the trainer and jockey combo usually go well together. For that reason I will be awarding this one a **** Rating. I Just wish I had that conversation an hour ago!
Longshot Info (Kempton)
6:50 Kempton - BLACK MASCARA (14/1) - ** Rating - Horse is apparently in good order and is expected to at least place tonight, she has been working well at home and the step up in trip is expected to suit. With so many newcomers in the line up and all the big stables represented, it is difficult to be too confident but on the basis of the info, the horses pedigree and the trainers form, this looks like a reasonable e/w bet.
Today's Racing
I don't really know where to start today as there are so many meetings to get through. A couple of horses catch my eye at Epsom though so I have decided to start there.
EPSOM SELECTIONS
2:15 - DIAMOND CHARLIE (18/1) (30.0 Betfair) - ** Rating - Big field handicaps at Epsom are always a bit of a lottery especially over 5 furlongs, but I think this one will have a chance of going close. He is a previous CD winner, handles a bit of cut in the ground, is well drawn, has a jockey on board who knows how to ride the down hill course and likes to race prominently. In the past he has been known to fluff his starts and that would be a slight concern as you have no chance of making up ground on this track but at 18/1 I believe he is worth taking a punt on.
3:55 - HALFSKIN (10/1) - *** Rating - Now this is a horse which I really like and I have been waiting for him to make a reappearance. He was impressive last year and although he never managed to win a big prize a 3yo he did run well against some classy opposition. The most important thing today is that he meets a lot of the key trends for this race, he is the right age, is making his seasonal reappearance (won fresh before) is very well drawn, is in the first 4 in the market, has won over today's distance and carries a nice weight. As always with these types of horses you never really know whether they will continue to progress past 4 but his Sires progeny usually do, and they also usually handle a bit of cut in the ground (won on GS) so I don't have any major concerns on that front. Priced up around 10/1 there is plenty of e/w value, but I will be splitting my stake 60/40 in favour of the win.
THE GOSDEN DOUBLE
John Gosden looks to have 2 stand out runners on the card today in the form of AIKEN (2:50) and UNEX MICHELANGO (3:20). Now in my opinion Aiken is as close to NAP material as you can get at Epsom and I fully expected him to win and 9/4 looks like good value. Unex Michel (11/2) obviously has a lot more on his plate and is up against some potentially useful types, but he falls within the could be anything category and with Gosden already talking about supplementing him it wouldn't be a great surprise if he was to win his race. Although I wont be backing them in singles I will be having a punt on an e/w double and to me it looks like a good value bet.
PERTH SELECTIONS
2:30 - ALBION WOOD (2/1) - *** Rating - The only reason this horse didn't obtain a 4 star rating is because of the presence of the McCain horse who I do fear if he is over his crunching fall LTO. However, on all known past form Albion Wood should have to much for the rest of his competitors today. He won a good looking race LTO at Sandown, and on the basis of his pedigree should be able to continue his progression stepping up in trip. His original target had been the Albert Bartlett however he wasn't quite ready for that but having been given plenty of time to recover from his last exertions he should be tuned up for a big race today. The stable is in good form and there have been plenty of people taking about the horse this morning, he is apparently very well fancied.
SO THAT'S IT FOR THE MOMENT BUT THERE WILL BE A FEW MORE SELECTIONS TODAY WHICH WILL BE POSTED A BIT LATER ON AND WILL INCLUDE INFO BETS FROM IRELAND AND HEREFORD AND A POTENTIAL **** BET AT KEMPTON.
EPSOM SELECTIONS
2:15 - DIAMOND CHARLIE (18/1) (30.0 Betfair) - ** Rating - Big field handicaps at Epsom are always a bit of a lottery especially over 5 furlongs, but I think this one will have a chance of going close. He is a previous CD winner, handles a bit of cut in the ground, is well drawn, has a jockey on board who knows how to ride the down hill course and likes to race prominently. In the past he has been known to fluff his starts and that would be a slight concern as you have no chance of making up ground on this track but at 18/1 I believe he is worth taking a punt on.
3:55 - HALFSKIN (10/1) - *** Rating - Now this is a horse which I really like and I have been waiting for him to make a reappearance. He was impressive last year and although he never managed to win a big prize a 3yo he did run well against some classy opposition. The most important thing today is that he meets a lot of the key trends for this race, he is the right age, is making his seasonal reappearance (won fresh before) is very well drawn, is in the first 4 in the market, has won over today's distance and carries a nice weight. As always with these types of horses you never really know whether they will continue to progress past 4 but his Sires progeny usually do, and they also usually handle a bit of cut in the ground (won on GS) so I don't have any major concerns on that front. Priced up around 10/1 there is plenty of e/w value, but I will be splitting my stake 60/40 in favour of the win.
THE GOSDEN DOUBLE
John Gosden looks to have 2 stand out runners on the card today in the form of AIKEN (2:50) and UNEX MICHELANGO (3:20). Now in my opinion Aiken is as close to NAP material as you can get at Epsom and I fully expected him to win and 9/4 looks like good value. Unex Michel (11/2) obviously has a lot more on his plate and is up against some potentially useful types, but he falls within the could be anything category and with Gosden already talking about supplementing him it wouldn't be a great surprise if he was to win his race. Although I wont be backing them in singles I will be having a punt on an e/w double and to me it looks like a good value bet.
PERTH SELECTIONS
2:30 - ALBION WOOD (2/1) - *** Rating - The only reason this horse didn't obtain a 4 star rating is because of the presence of the McCain horse who I do fear if he is over his crunching fall LTO. However, on all known past form Albion Wood should have to much for the rest of his competitors today. He won a good looking race LTO at Sandown, and on the basis of his pedigree should be able to continue his progression stepping up in trip. His original target had been the Albert Bartlett however he wasn't quite ready for that but having been given plenty of time to recover from his last exertions he should be tuned up for a big race today. The stable is in good form and there have been plenty of people taking about the horse this morning, he is apparently very well fancied.
SO THAT'S IT FOR THE MOMENT BUT THERE WILL BE A FEW MORE SELECTIONS TODAY WHICH WILL BE POSTED A BIT LATER ON AND WILL INCLUDE INFO BETS FROM IRELAND AND HEREFORD AND A POTENTIAL **** BET AT KEMPTON.
Tuesday, 24 April 2012
6:50 Towcester
Last info bet is ORANG OUTAN (7/1) - ** Rating -The horse will apparently benefit from the soft ground is fresh and ready to go and should give this trainer her second winner. Personally I wouldn't want to have too much on this race irrespective of which runner you choose to back as its a pretty terrible affair so proceed with caution.
4:55 Punchestown
I don't usually like these big handicap races at the festival as it's incredibly difficult to find the winner but I have found two nice types who may have a chance of winning the race. The first is BURRENBRIDGE LODGE (16/1) and the second is SATU (25/1). Now Satu is a very interesting contender due to the fact that he has a very good record in big field handicaps, he is a hold up performer who will be switched off early on and backing these types of runners in the big handicaps at Punches has paid dividends in the past. Burrenbridge is a horse on the upgrade and although he is still young he has plenty of potential and clearly deserves his place in this line up. He has been rested especially for this race and with an experienced jockey on board, he may well out run his odds. I've had a couple of points e/w on both but its not a race to get too carried away with.
Today Selections
Looks like a difficult day for punters today, conditions aren't great and its difficult to find value due to the limited number of runners going to post. Hopefully we can land a few winners to continue yesterdays positive results though.
Southwell Selections
5:00 -MCCONNEL (5/1) -*** Rating. Now although I got 5/1 last night the price has now shortened into 3/1 which is a bit annoying. The horse is a proven CD performer who will always give you a run for your money at this track. He drops back to a mile having run over 9f in his last 2 runs and has seen his OR mark drop 5lb as a result. The horse is a very dangerous competitor in claiming company and with the talented Danny Brook on board (6 wins from 40 wins at Southwell) I expect this horse to go very close to winning.
6:00 - BRING SWEETS (3/1) ** Rating. Like Mcconnel this horse has dropped in price since I backed it last night (now 9/4). The horse looks to have a very solid chance of winning though and the 9/4 available may still prove to be value. At first blush the horse doesn't look to have a great record on the A/W (1 win in 10) but he has been placed on quite a few occasions and his one win did come over CD. He won't have to be a world beater today to win this race and his performance LTO over an inadequate trip seemed to suggest that he may be on his way back to form. Stable jockey in the saddle again and this one should go close.
8:10 - ONLY TEN PER CENT (11/10) - *** Rating - This horse is probably my best bet on the card as I just cant see him getting beaten. He beat a subsequent winner last time out despite idling once in front and if he is in the same form then he should be able to defy his rise. There is a slight suspicion that he is better over 6f but against today's field I don't think it should be too much of a problem provided that Tylicki gets him a bit of cover early on.
Towcester Selections
6:20 - BRIXEN (4/1) *** Rating - Yet another horse who would have been a ** rated e/w bet last night at 7/1 but due to the non runners now has to be a win selection. Despite the shortish price he rates a solid bet, he is proven at the course, has won over the distance and has bucket loads of stamina. With Twiston Davis in the saddle I expect this horse to make it a real test of stamina and provided that he front runs and jumps well, he should go close.
Wolverhampton Selections
2:20 - KAI (2/1) - ** Rating - I received a word for this horse earlier today but I have actually decided not to back it as I'm not sure the current price represents value. I can tell you that the horse is strongly fancied though and should benefit from the drop back in trip, but readers need to decided whether they want to be taking a punt at that kind of price.
2:50 - SPIN AGAIN (9/2) - *** Rating - This is another Info selection and is apparently expected to win under Kingscote. Having looked at the card in detail I fear the Evans horse but the jockey doesn't have a great record at the track and course experience is pretty important at Wolves. Ulimited Jockey obviously has bucket loads of experience and he would probably be the main danger but the word was strong and I fancy Spin Again in this one.
So together with my sole bet at Punchestown that concludes today's selections, although there may be another info horse to come later on in the day.
Best of luck with all your bets and lets hope it turns into a profitable day.
Punchestown Festval (Day 1) - Key Trends
Punchestown Key Trends
Champion Hurdle
Last time out
1st = 42 runs, 9 wins, 11 places
2nd = 24 runs, 4 wins, 2 places
3rd = 6 runs, 1 win, 0 places
Only winners not to finish 1st, 2nd or 3rd LTO was 8th
Horse Age
5 yo’s = 52 runs, 7 wins, 12 places
6 yo’s = 46 runs, 7 wins, 8 places
7 yo’s = 16 runs, 1 win, 3 places
Odds range
10/11 or less = 7 runs, 4 wins, 2 places
Evens – 9/4 = 10 runs, 6 wins, 2 places
5/2 – 6/1 =25 runs, 3 wins, 6 places
13/2 – 12/1 = 27 runs, 2 wins, 8 places
Official Rating
No OR = 81 runs, 10 wins, 15 places (no qualifiers today)
Rest of the winners have been rated between 136 & 157
Days Since Last run
1-7 days = 4 runners, 0 win, 1 place
8-15 days =27 runners, 2 wins, 1 place
16-30 days = 41 runners, 5 wins, 12 places
31-90 days = 6 runners, 2 wins, 0 places
Additional Stats
10/10 have been distance winners
10/10 have competed in between 3-8 hurdle races
7/10 winner of a Grade 1 or Grade 2 hurdle.
Conclusion
Personally I believe that the market has this one spot on and Trifolium deserves to be a short priced favourite. He meets most of the key trends, has a good record at the track, handles heavy ground, likes racing in small fields and has a jockey on board who knows what it takes to win at the festival. If I had one slight concern it would be that this horse is at his best when competing after a shorter break but it’s nothing to get too concerned about. Those looking for an e/w alternative may go for the mount of Ruby Walsh but he will have his work cut out to beat the favourite. As for Alderwood, he has plenty of key stats against him and for me that makes him vulnerable. I won’t be having a bet in the race as the fav is too short for me, but I fully expect him to win.
Champion Chase
Last time out
1st = 27 runs, 7 wins, 7 places
2nd = 16 runs, 2 wins, 3 places
3rd = 23 runs, 1 win, 4 places
4th = 12 runs, 1 win, 1 place
5th = 7 runs, 3 wins, 3 places
Horses Age
6 yo’s = 6 runs, 2 wins, 1 place
7 yo’s = 8 runs, 0 wins, 1 place
8 yo’s = 35 runs, 5 wins, 9 places
9 yo’s =34 runs, 5 wins, 4 places
10 yo’s = 17 runs, 3 wins, 2 places
Horses Odds
6/4 or Less = 11 runs, 5 wins, 2 places
13/8 and 4/1 = 15 runs, 3 wins, 4 places
9/2 and 8/1 = 30 runs, 5 wins, 8 places
17/2 and 20/1 = 39 runs, 2 wins, 4 places
Horse weight
10-11 = 12 runs, 1 win, 2 place
11-6 = 4 runs, 1 win, 0 place
11-7 = 4 runs, 0 wins, 0 place
11-9 = 6 runs, 1 win, 1 place
11-12 = 55 runs, 8 wins, 10 place
12-0 = 28 runs, 4 wins, 5 place
Days since last run
16-30 days = 45 runs, 5 wins, 10 places
31-60 days = 35 runs, 7 wins, 4 places
Additional Stats
9 or the last 10 winners have come from the first four in the betting
9 winners had previously run at the Cheltenham Festival (Champion Chase first 6 home)
Conclusion
This is a very tough race to call and there is no doubt that Sizing Europe deserves to win this after all the drama of the Champion Chase but I just have a feeling that he may be vulnerable and with the odds so prohibitive I have decided to side with REALT DUBH e/w at 17/2. This horse is the right age, carries the right weight, ran at the festival (Champion Chase 5th), has won over CD and handles heavy ground. I’m hoping he can continue the good record of horses that finished 5th LTO in this race and at least give Sizing a run for his money. He is my only bet at the festival today and I rate him as a ** bet.
Monday, 23 April 2012
2:45 Ponte (**** Rating)
RUACANA (5/1) - **** Rating - Really like the look of this one and should have a very good chance, no e/w bets due to the number of runners but if he handles the ground he should be able to win.
Today's Selections
Few good looking selections today which should hopefully pay dividends
3:15 Ponte - Osteopathic Remedy (25/1) - ** Rating - I really like the look of this one and he will probably be my largest e/w bet today, with conditions to suit I think he may well bounce back to form.
4:30 Hexham - Bollin Ruth (9/1) ** Rating - I know that a GG.com member has tipped this horse up as info today and he usual does well with his horses but the reason I have backed it is because of the horses track record. Hexham is a difficult track to master and this horse seems to like it there, having run 5 times, won once and placed on 3 other occasions. If he can bounce back today then he should at least have a chance of running into a place.
4:45 Ponte - Cheylesmore (33/1) - * Rating - Horse is best at Brighton but the track at Ponte is similar, he has an engagement at Brighton later this week so this may prove to be a prep run but if connections want him to run a race then I think he will outrun his odds.
5:45 Ffos Las - Mickmacmagoole (5/1) - *** Rating - Horse has a very good record at the track (3 runs 2 wins), handles a bit of cut in the ground, will have no problem with the distance (10 runs 3 wins), is being ridden by a jockey who knows him well (6 runs 3 wins), is best in small fields and is clearly capable of winning off his current mark. In my opinion he looks like a very good betting prospect.
6:15 Ffos Las - Share Option (8/1) - ** Rating - This is a race which probably won't take much winning and I think that this horse may have a shout at a nice price.
6:55 Windsor - Achalas (6/1) - ** Rating - I probably could have picked any of the horses at the head of the market in this race but with Colinca's lad attempting to overcome a career high mark and the fav looking a bit vulnerable, Achalas was the perfect alternative.
3:15 Ponte - Osteopathic Remedy (25/1) - ** Rating - I really like the look of this one and he will probably be my largest e/w bet today, with conditions to suit I think he may well bounce back to form.
4:30 Hexham - Bollin Ruth (9/1) ** Rating - I know that a GG.com member has tipped this horse up as info today and he usual does well with his horses but the reason I have backed it is because of the horses track record. Hexham is a difficult track to master and this horse seems to like it there, having run 5 times, won once and placed on 3 other occasions. If he can bounce back today then he should at least have a chance of running into a place.
4:45 Ponte - Cheylesmore (33/1) - * Rating - Horse is best at Brighton but the track at Ponte is similar, he has an engagement at Brighton later this week so this may prove to be a prep run but if connections want him to run a race then I think he will outrun his odds.
5:45 Ffos Las - Mickmacmagoole (5/1) - *** Rating - Horse has a very good record at the track (3 runs 2 wins), handles a bit of cut in the ground, will have no problem with the distance (10 runs 3 wins), is being ridden by a jockey who knows him well (6 runs 3 wins), is best in small fields and is clearly capable of winning off his current mark. In my opinion he looks like a very good betting prospect.
6:15 Ffos Las - Share Option (8/1) - ** Rating - This is a race which probably won't take much winning and I think that this horse may have a shout at a nice price.
6:55 Windsor - Achalas (6/1) - ** Rating - I probably could have picked any of the horses at the head of the market in this race but with Colinca's lad attempting to overcome a career high mark and the fav looking a bit vulnerable, Achalas was the perfect alternative.
IRISH INFO
6:20 CORK - MADAME MADO (16/1 boylesports) - *** Rating - Very strong word received for this horse tomorrow, plenty of value so people can go e/w but I'm feeling brave and I'm going for the win!
Sunday, 22 April 2012
Hills Runners Tomorrow
Plenty of people have been asking me about the Hill's runners tomorrow so thought I would post up now before the prices disintegrate completely.
Shropshire - **Rating - Horse is expected to continue its progression tomorrow but it is a very difficult race to call and for me the current price doesn't represent value and therefore its a no bet.
Willie Wonder - ** Rating - Similar comments apply to this horse, he should go very close to winning but connections fear Intense Pink and WW is already becoming a difficult horse to win with. The price does not present value and therefore is a no bet for me.
Desert Strike - * Rating - I said last time that connections believe that this horse will be able to win a race on the turf of his current mark but its unlikely that tomorrow will be his day as there are a few things against him. May have an e/w shout but I wont be having a bet.
Basseterre - *** Rating - This horse is fully expected to win tomorrow and looks a very solid bet. I got on at 7/2 but you will be very lucky to get that price now, with most bookies having him around the 9/4 mark. Obviously people now need to decide whether that kind of price is reasonable considering the slight question mark about the ground etc, but there is a lot of confidence behind this runner and the yard are sure that he will go to bigger and better things.
So in conclusion all of the yards runners are thought to have e/w shouts tomorrow but the stand out bet is without doubt BASSETERRE. Probably won't have a chance to post anymore selections tonight but I have a tasty bit of info lined up at Cork for tomorrow and a few more personal selections at Windsor and Ponte and will post them all up at some point tomorrow
Shropshire - **Rating - Horse is expected to continue its progression tomorrow but it is a very difficult race to call and for me the current price doesn't represent value and therefore its a no bet.
Willie Wonder - ** Rating - Similar comments apply to this horse, he should go very close to winning but connections fear Intense Pink and WW is already becoming a difficult horse to win with. The price does not present value and therefore is a no bet for me.
Desert Strike - * Rating - I said last time that connections believe that this horse will be able to win a race on the turf of his current mark but its unlikely that tomorrow will be his day as there are a few things against him. May have an e/w shout but I wont be having a bet.
Basseterre - *** Rating - This horse is fully expected to win tomorrow and looks a very solid bet. I got on at 7/2 but you will be very lucky to get that price now, with most bookies having him around the 9/4 mark. Obviously people now need to decide whether that kind of price is reasonable considering the slight question mark about the ground etc, but there is a lot of confidence behind this runner and the yard are sure that he will go to bigger and better things.
So in conclusion all of the yards runners are thought to have e/w shouts tomorrow but the stand out bet is without doubt BASSETERRE. Probably won't have a chance to post anymore selections tonight but I have a tasty bit of info lined up at Cork for tomorrow and a few more personal selections at Windsor and Ponte and will post them all up at some point tomorrow
4:50 Curragh
Late Info word for MIDNIGHT MUSIC (11/2) - *** Rating - This horse is expected to go very close under the excellent Pat Smullen. Little bit of e/w value but I've gone for the win as my guy was pretty confident about this one. Biggest danger obviously the favourite so also had a reverse forecast.
3:50 & 4:20 Curragh
CAONACH (25/1) - ** Rating - Now I'm not sure that this horse is capable of beating the short priced favourite but I do think she is very capable of getting a place. She carries the right amount of weight, is fresh, well drawn and can continue the trend of the unexposed horses in this race. Those horses yet to be awarded a rating = 22 runners, 7 wins, 3 places.
CROISULTAN (20/1) - * Rating - Another selection which is unlikely to beat the short priced favourite but he does have a real chance of getting into the place money and looks like a nice e/w bet (small stakes only)
CROISULTAN (20/1) - * Rating - Another selection which is unlikely to beat the short priced favourite but he does have a real chance of getting into the place money and looks like a nice e/w bet (small stakes only)
TODAYS RACING SELECTIONS/INFO
Its a pretty terrible day of racing today and nothing really catches me eye, I have had a couple of bets though and have also received one info horse.
2:50 Curragh - VIVACIOUS VIVIENNE (10/1) - ** Rating - This horse meets a few key trends for the race and should run well. Definitely has a shout and is a nice e/w price.
3:00 Stratford - MARESCSOU (5/1) - *** Rating - I have a close friend who owns a few horses in France with the Cherel yard who used to own this horse and he informed me to keep my eye on this runner as he was very smart in france and was a horse which the trainer thought a lot off. His first run on British soil wasnt too bad and I think he can step up today and it looks like a very solid bet.
INFO HORSE - 3:10 WINCANTON - KUMASI CLAN (10/1) - ** rating - big improvement expected on handicap debut. Heavy rain has caused this horse to be withdrawn and the sceptical bet against the field is now WUN CHAI (100/1) - * Rating.
4:40 Stratford - TINDARO (7/2) - *** Rating - I may regret backing this horse as there are plenty of horses in the line up who might surprise a few people however, my pick has by far the best form in the race and having won at the track LTO when finally getting the GD ground he needs, I think he will continue to progress today.
2:50 Curragh - VIVACIOUS VIVIENNE (10/1) - ** Rating - This horse meets a few key trends for the race and should run well. Definitely has a shout and is a nice e/w price.
3:00 Stratford - MARESCSOU (5/1) - *** Rating - I have a close friend who owns a few horses in France with the Cherel yard who used to own this horse and he informed me to keep my eye on this runner as he was very smart in france and was a horse which the trainer thought a lot off. His first run on British soil wasnt too bad and I think he can step up today and it looks like a very solid bet.
INFO HORSE - 3:10 WINCANTON - KUMASI CLAN (10/1) - ** rating - big improvement expected on handicap debut. Heavy rain has caused this horse to be withdrawn and the sceptical bet against the field is now WUN CHAI (100/1) - * Rating.
4:40 Stratford - TINDARO (7/2) - *** Rating - I may regret backing this horse as there are plenty of horses in the line up who might surprise a few people however, my pick has by far the best form in the race and having won at the track LTO when finally getting the GD ground he needs, I think he will continue to progress today.
Saturday, 21 April 2012
Mr Bell across the card double
7:30 Nottingham - KASHGAR (2/1) - Thought to have a major shout, only danger is the Botti horse who is currently being heavily backed, Hayley Turner takes the ride.
7:45 Wolverhampton - LOVE GROWS WILD (3/1) - Very strong word for this one, Fallon takes the ride and everyone concerned would be surprised if this one doesn't win.
Win singles and win double placed *** rated bet.
7:45 Wolverhampton - LOVE GROWS WILD (3/1) - Very strong word for this one, Fallon takes the ride and everyone concerned would be surprised if this one doesn't win.
Win singles and win double placed *** rated bet.
Today's update
After 2 disappointing performances finally hit a bet as Radio Gaga puts in a cracking performance to finish 2nd in the 2:35. Horse looks like a very nice type and should definitely be one to keep an eye on this season.
No joy in the National and my NAP failed in the 3:10 at Newbury but then the Spring Cup went according to plan as CAPTAIN BERTIE drifted out to 7/1 and won in fine style and my big priced outsider KARAKA JACK ran a massive race at 33/1 to finish 4th. That puts me in a good position today with a few runners still left to run.
No joy in the National and my NAP failed in the 3:10 at Newbury but then the Spring Cup went according to plan as CAPTAIN BERTIE drifted out to 7/1 and won in fine style and my big priced outsider KARAKA JACK ran a massive race at 33/1 to finish 4th. That puts me in a good position today with a few runners still left to run.
Todays Selections (Info)
Very busy day today and we have plenty of selections on the blog including a nice e/w info bet from the Longshot at Newbury as well as a **** bet at the same venue. Lets hope for a profitable day and I wish you all the best with your bets.
Ayr Selections
2:15 - PURE FAITH (11/2) - *** Rating - Now this is obviously a very difficult race to call but we have a few key trends to follow and I personally think that Pure Faith has solid claims. He ran a very good race at Aintree and that was a real step up in form despite finishing 5th. Aintree has been a good prep for this race in the past with 3 of the last 5 runners having run there on route to victory here (other 2 went to Cheltenham). With Lancetto burdened with top weight, Pacha Du Polder falling LTO and Lider tackling tough opposition, the horses at the top of the market look a bit vulnerable and who knows, maybe both trainer and Jockey of Pure Faith will get their first winner at Ayr tomorrow.
3:25 - MOSTLY BOB (20/1) ** Rating, QUENTIN COLLONGES (20/1) ** Rating, PETTIFOUR (40/1) * Rating. For reasoning see my Scottish Grand National post yesterday. Someone said yesterday that Galaxy Rock was fancied to run a big race and the market is definitely speaking in his favour, I'm not going to back him as I've already backed 3 runners but he did fit a few of the key trends and he could definitely be worth an e/w bet.
Newbury Selections
LONGSHOT INFO - 1:30 -WREATHS OF EMPIRE (33/1) - ** Rating - Same connections which have given him the 28/1 & 33/1 winners this week so the selection has to be respected. Personally I think SEVENTH SIGN (11/1) will be going very close to winning this race and I will be having an e/w bet on him as well.
2:35 - RADIO GAGA (10/1) ** Rating - This race will be about the return of Best Term and whether she has trained on and can stay further this season. Personally I think its 50/50 and for that reason I don't really want to be backing her at a price of 7/4. I will however be having an e/w bet on her for the 1000 Guineas at 25/1 because if she does destroy this field tomorrow then the price will shorten significantly. With a few question marks surrounding the favourite I've decided to hunt down a bit of e/w value and I think Radio Gaga ticks a few boxes. She is a powerfully built Filly who performed above expectations last season, the form of her maiden win is incredibly strong and the combination of a step up in trip and soft ground should help her tomorrow. Obviously on official ratings she has a bit to find and I definitely would view this as a race to get too carried away with, but I think she has a chance.
3:10 BRONTERRE (4/5) - **** Rating - No need for a significant write up about this one as its a short priced favourite and its claims are there for all to see. Meets all of the key trends for the race, trainer in form and should win well.
4:20 - This race includes two horses which featured in my 2yo diary last season; MICHELANGELO and MINIMISE RISK. Minimise Risk was seen at Doncaster in March and I landed an e/w bet as he finished second despite being uneasy in the market before the off. As a result of that race he is the tissue favourite today and with a race under his belt he should be difficult to beat. Michelangelo was not seen last season but has a stunning pedigree and has been the subject of some positive reports from the yard. He's currently priced up around 7/1 and although it has to be considered a bit of a punt I will be having a small e/w bet on this one.
INFO - 4:55 - BORDER LEGEND (4/1) - *** Rating - Have received a big word for this horse today, he is thought to be capable of winning first time out, has been performing very well on the gallops and has been sent to give the queen a little birthday present.
LATE ADDITION TO MY NEWBURY SELECTIONS = DARING INDIAN (20/1 & 3/1 place with Betfair) -** Rating n the lucky last.
Bangor Selections
1:50 - CURTAIN RAZOR (10/3) - *** Rating - This is a very competitive race but I really fancy this horse today. He looked very promising on his rules debut finishing in between a couple of nice types, his second run wasn't so good but it came at a time when the NIcholls yard was out of form and the ground would definitely have been soft enough that day (also reported to have bled). His next entry was in a competitive little affair at Newbury and personally I think the jockey got his tactics wrong as he looks to be a horse who needs a bit of cover. He should get that today with McCain horse certain to make the running, he also gets good ground for the first time, and the step up in trip will definitely suit. Must have a very solid chance for this years Champion Trainer.
Ayr Selections
2:15 - PURE FAITH (11/2) - *** Rating - Now this is obviously a very difficult race to call but we have a few key trends to follow and I personally think that Pure Faith has solid claims. He ran a very good race at Aintree and that was a real step up in form despite finishing 5th. Aintree has been a good prep for this race in the past with 3 of the last 5 runners having run there on route to victory here (other 2 went to Cheltenham). With Lancetto burdened with top weight, Pacha Du Polder falling LTO and Lider tackling tough opposition, the horses at the top of the market look a bit vulnerable and who knows, maybe both trainer and Jockey of Pure Faith will get their first winner at Ayr tomorrow.
3:25 - MOSTLY BOB (20/1) ** Rating, QUENTIN COLLONGES (20/1) ** Rating, PETTIFOUR (40/1) * Rating. For reasoning see my Scottish Grand National post yesterday. Someone said yesterday that Galaxy Rock was fancied to run a big race and the market is definitely speaking in his favour, I'm not going to back him as I've already backed 3 runners but he did fit a few of the key trends and he could definitely be worth an e/w bet.
Newbury Selections
LONGSHOT INFO - 1:30 -WREATHS OF EMPIRE (33/1) - ** Rating - Same connections which have given him the 28/1 & 33/1 winners this week so the selection has to be respected. Personally I think SEVENTH SIGN (11/1) will be going very close to winning this race and I will be having an e/w bet on him as well.
2:35 - RADIO GAGA (10/1) ** Rating - This race will be about the return of Best Term and whether she has trained on and can stay further this season. Personally I think its 50/50 and for that reason I don't really want to be backing her at a price of 7/4. I will however be having an e/w bet on her for the 1000 Guineas at 25/1 because if she does destroy this field tomorrow then the price will shorten significantly. With a few question marks surrounding the favourite I've decided to hunt down a bit of e/w value and I think Radio Gaga ticks a few boxes. She is a powerfully built Filly who performed above expectations last season, the form of her maiden win is incredibly strong and the combination of a step up in trip and soft ground should help her tomorrow. Obviously on official ratings she has a bit to find and I definitely would view this as a race to get too carried away with, but I think she has a chance.
3:10 BRONTERRE (4/5) - **** Rating - No need for a significant write up about this one as its a short priced favourite and its claims are there for all to see. Meets all of the key trends for the race, trainer in form and should win well.
4:20 - This race includes two horses which featured in my 2yo diary last season; MICHELANGELO and MINIMISE RISK. Minimise Risk was seen at Doncaster in March and I landed an e/w bet as he finished second despite being uneasy in the market before the off. As a result of that race he is the tissue favourite today and with a race under his belt he should be difficult to beat. Michelangelo was not seen last season but has a stunning pedigree and has been the subject of some positive reports from the yard. He's currently priced up around 7/1 and although it has to be considered a bit of a punt I will be having a small e/w bet on this one.
INFO - 4:55 - BORDER LEGEND (4/1) - *** Rating - Have received a big word for this horse today, he is thought to be capable of winning first time out, has been performing very well on the gallops and has been sent to give the queen a little birthday present.
LATE ADDITION TO MY NEWBURY SELECTIONS = DARING INDIAN (20/1 & 3/1 place with Betfair) -** Rating n the lucky last.
Bangor Selections
1:50 - CURTAIN RAZOR (10/3) - *** Rating - This is a very competitive race but I really fancy this horse today. He looked very promising on his rules debut finishing in between a couple of nice types, his second run wasn't so good but it came at a time when the NIcholls yard was out of form and the ground would definitely have been soft enough that day (also reported to have bled). His next entry was in a competitive little affair at Newbury and personally I think the jockey got his tactics wrong as he looks to be a horse who needs a bit of cover. He should get that today with McCain horse certain to make the running, he also gets good ground for the first time, and the step up in trip will definitely suit. Must have a very solid chance for this years Champion Trainer.
Newbury Spring Cup
Going to start off with some key trends for the race.
Last Run Finishing Position
No run = 0%
1st = 38 runs 2 wins 4 places
2nd = 25 runs 2 wins 2 places
3rd = 19 runs 1 win 2 places
4th = 24 runs 3 wins 5 places
Official Ratings
101+ = 19 runs 0 winners
90 -100 = 143 runners 7 wins
80-89 = 117 runners 5 winners
67 -79 = 26 runners 2 winners (78 & 79)
Starting Price
9/2 - 6/1 = 13 runners, 2 wins, 3 places
13/2 - 8/1 = 20 runners, 1 win 6 places
17/2 - 12/1 = 52 runners, 7 wins, 12 places
Horse Age
4 yo's = 146 runners, 10 wins, 19 places
5 yo's = 78 runners, 2 wins, 15 places
6 yo's = 40 runners, 1 win, 3 places
7 yo's = 22 runners, 0 wins, 3 places
Position in the market
No winners from outside of the top 10 (12 placed horses from 145 runners)
Days Since Last Run
1-7 days = 12 runners, 1 win, 1 place
8-15 days = 42 runners, 2 wins, 7 places
16-30 days= 107 runners, 5 wins, 13 places
31 - 60 days= 11 runners, 1 win, 2 places
121 - 365 days = 110 runners, 5 wins, 16 places
Key Weight Bracket
8st 7lb - 8st 12lb
So roughly speaking we are looking for 4 or 5 yo horse who was 4th LTO (0-30 days), has an OR between 80 and 89, is priced between 9/2 and 12/1 and is weighted between 8st 7lb and 8st 12lb.
Now on the basis of the key trends above a few horses catch the eye, those closest to the required trends are CAPTAIN BERTIE & MONT RAS. Now having recieved a call from my guy earlier this evening I know that the Hill's camp really fancy their runner in this one and its hardly surprising when you consider how unlucky he was last time out. He is also proven over the distance and he handles a bit of ease in the ground so shouldn't have any problem on that front. For me he is a real danger and although a price of 11/2 isnt ideal in a race which is basically a bit of a lottery, this one has to be regarded as a *** bet.
Mont Ras obviously fits the majority of the key criteria, he is 5 years old, was placed last time out, has an OR of 88 and carries 8st 10lb. The yard have booked a top notch jockey for the race so they obviously mean business but he is yet to prove that he handles soft ground and coming out of stall 2 he will have to break very smartly if he is to win tomorrow. All things considered I would rate him as a * bet.
For those looking for a tasty priced e/w outsider I would suggest that close attention is given to KARAKA JACK (33/1), he meets a few of the key trends and he has drawn stall 11 which over the years has proved to be a good place to be. Obviously he has done the majority of his racing over 7 furlongs which has to be a concern as the trip will take some getting tomorrow but I think he may surprise a few people.
Finallly my friend the Longshot has a selection in this race and its in the form of MAVERICK (40/1) no idea why he fancies it though so I'm awarding this one a * rating.
In conclusion my bets in the race are as follows;
CAPTAIN BERTIE (11/2) - *** Rating
MONT RAS (14/1) - * Rating
MAVERICK (40/1) - * Rating
Last Run Finishing Position
No run = 0%
1st = 38 runs 2 wins 4 places
2nd = 25 runs 2 wins 2 places
3rd = 19 runs 1 win 2 places
4th = 24 runs 3 wins 5 places
Official Ratings
101+ = 19 runs 0 winners
90 -100 = 143 runners 7 wins
80-89 = 117 runners 5 winners
67 -79 = 26 runners 2 winners (78 & 79)
Starting Price
9/2 - 6/1 = 13 runners, 2 wins, 3 places
13/2 - 8/1 = 20 runners, 1 win 6 places
17/2 - 12/1 = 52 runners, 7 wins, 12 places
Horse Age
4 yo's = 146 runners, 10 wins, 19 places
5 yo's = 78 runners, 2 wins, 15 places
6 yo's = 40 runners, 1 win, 3 places
7 yo's = 22 runners, 0 wins, 3 places
Position in the market
No winners from outside of the top 10 (12 placed horses from 145 runners)
Days Since Last Run
1-7 days = 12 runners, 1 win, 1 place
8-15 days = 42 runners, 2 wins, 7 places
16-30 days= 107 runners, 5 wins, 13 places
31 - 60 days= 11 runners, 1 win, 2 places
121 - 365 days = 110 runners, 5 wins, 16 places
Key Weight Bracket
8st 7lb - 8st 12lb
So roughly speaking we are looking for 4 or 5 yo horse who was 4th LTO (0-30 days), has an OR between 80 and 89, is priced between 9/2 and 12/1 and is weighted between 8st 7lb and 8st 12lb.
Now on the basis of the key trends above a few horses catch the eye, those closest to the required trends are CAPTAIN BERTIE & MONT RAS. Now having recieved a call from my guy earlier this evening I know that the Hill's camp really fancy their runner in this one and its hardly surprising when you consider how unlucky he was last time out. He is also proven over the distance and he handles a bit of ease in the ground so shouldn't have any problem on that front. For me he is a real danger and although a price of 11/2 isnt ideal in a race which is basically a bit of a lottery, this one has to be regarded as a *** bet.
Mont Ras obviously fits the majority of the key criteria, he is 5 years old, was placed last time out, has an OR of 88 and carries 8st 10lb. The yard have booked a top notch jockey for the race so they obviously mean business but he is yet to prove that he handles soft ground and coming out of stall 2 he will have to break very smartly if he is to win tomorrow. All things considered I would rate him as a * bet.
For those looking for a tasty priced e/w outsider I would suggest that close attention is given to KARAKA JACK (33/1), he meets a few of the key trends and he has drawn stall 11 which over the years has proved to be a good place to be. Obviously he has done the majority of his racing over 7 furlongs which has to be a concern as the trip will take some getting tomorrow but I think he may surprise a few people.
Finallly my friend the Longshot has a selection in this race and its in the form of MAVERICK (40/1) no idea why he fancies it though so I'm awarding this one a * rating.
In conclusion my bets in the race are as follows;
CAPTAIN BERTIE (11/2) - *** Rating
MONT RAS (14/1) - * Rating
MAVERICK (40/1) - * Rating
Friday, 20 April 2012
5:05 Ayr
Florafern (10/3) - *** rating. No time for a write up but I really fancy this one to go well.
3:05 Fontwell
Not an info horse but I quite the look of BEATTIE GREEN in this race. He showed some early promise before having a blow out last time out and we may well see him jump back to form today. Currently priced up around 8/1 he looks like a good e/w bet and I have awarded him a ** star rating.
Hills Runners Today
2:10 Newbury - ENGLISHMAN - *** Star rating - Thought to have a very good chance of winning this although the Hannon horse will be difficult to beat.
2:40 Newbury - SELF CENTRED * Star rating - Thought to have a slim e/w shout (no bet for me)
3:15 Newbury - REVELETTE & ENSEJAAM - * Star rating - Both horses are expected to need the run but may grab a place (no bet for me)
2:40 Newbury - SELF CENTRED * Star rating - Thought to have a slim e/w shout (no bet for me)
3:15 Newbury - REVELETTE & ENSEJAAM - * Star rating - Both horses are expected to need the run but may grab a place (no bet for me)
Longshot's Info for today
Unfortunately the horse which Longshot originally had for today has been declared a non runner. He has received two further strong words for the Newbury meeting though which should run well at big prices. He is happy for me to give you one of them now, but the other one will be posted just before the off.
5:25 - L FRANK BAUM (12/1) - E/W - ** rating.
Second LONGSHOT horse is RED QUARTET (25/1 Betfair) e/w - in the 2:40 at Newbury - This is a * rated bet.
5:25 - L FRANK BAUM (12/1) - E/W - ** rating.
Second LONGSHOT horse is RED QUARTET (25/1 Betfair) e/w - in the 2:40 at Newbury - This is a * rated bet.
My rating system
A few people have asked me whether I could come up with a rating or betting system so that readers can gauge the strength of my selections and the info I receive. I don't like the idea of telling people what they should stake on a runner but I will be grading my selections with a star rating from now.
* = A horse of this type will usually be a big price and will be viewed as having an outside chance, stakes should be small and bets should be e/w.
** = A horse of this type should be viewed as a strong e/w bet, it will usually be applicable to info horses of 10/1+ which have been received from a reliable source.
*** = A horse holding this rating would be viewed in the eyes of an info source or myself to have a 70% chance or greater of winning the race. I would always look to back a horse with a 3 star rating to win irrespective of price however I wouldn't get too carried away with my stake.
**** = A horse which obtains this rating should be taken very seriously. If it is info then a horse will only achieve this rating if I receive a very strong word and also believe after analysing the card myself that the horse has a shot. The price of four star horses will rarely be bigger than 4/1-5/1 but you should always get a run for your money and I would only ever bet these horses to win and would probably be looking at pretty substantial bets.
***** = You will very rarely see a horse on this blog achieve a 5 star rating but if you do it will be safe to say that I will have a very large amount of money on it.
Hope that helps.
* = A horse of this type will usually be a big price and will be viewed as having an outside chance, stakes should be small and bets should be e/w.
** = A horse of this type should be viewed as a strong e/w bet, it will usually be applicable to info horses of 10/1+ which have been received from a reliable source.
*** = A horse holding this rating would be viewed in the eyes of an info source or myself to have a 70% chance or greater of winning the race. I would always look to back a horse with a 3 star rating to win irrespective of price however I wouldn't get too carried away with my stake.
**** = A horse which obtains this rating should be taken very seriously. If it is info then a horse will only achieve this rating if I receive a very strong word and also believe after analysing the card myself that the horse has a shot. The price of four star horses will rarely be bigger than 4/1-5/1 but you should always get a run for your money and I would only ever bet these horses to win and would probably be looking at pretty substantial bets.
***** = You will very rarely see a horse on this blog achieve a 5 star rating but if you do it will be safe to say that I will have a very large amount of money on it.
Hope that helps.
8:00 Bath
My selection in this race is KYLLACHY STORM and for me its an absolute no brainer. The horse is a 4 time CD winner, is versatile tactically, has a cracking jockey in the saddle and is well below his last winning mark. With no fewer than 17 runners going to post in the race the pace is bound to be pretty quick and coming from a wide draw I would expected Baker to tuck the horse in behind and wait for a gap to appear. In my opinion Baker's ability to judge the pace and time a run is impeccable and in a race like this he's is definitely the man I would want riding my selection. There has already been a bit of money around for the horse this morning and when this yard put a bit of confidence behind one of their runners it usually isn't far away. All things considered I would rate this one as a *** star bet but if the field was slightly smaller it would definitely be a 4 star.
My Last Time Out Comment - Horse finished 3rd
"5:50 Kempton - KYLLACHY STORM (12/1) - 15 points e/w - When looking at sprint races at Kempton the first thing I look for is a confirmed front runner, drawn in a low stall, with an experienced jockey onboard. Kyllachy meets all of those criteria and is also well below his last winning mark. His last win came over CD with Baker in the saddle; he was drawn in stall 2 and made all to win by a length. The time of that win represents the quickest recorded in today’s field and therefore if the same tactics are employed by Baker, I can't really see anything else improving enough to catch him.
Regarding his recent form, Kyllachy returned from a substantial break LTO in a seller and was well beaten finishing 4 of 4. In my opinion this run can be ignored, the horse will definitely have needed the race and the trainer has a very poor record in sellers anyway, so that race was never going to be the target. His last win came on his second run out following a substantial break from the track and therefore the bounce factor shouldn’t be a problem especially as the horse has had over a month to recover.
Another positive factor in my selections favour is that on past grass and A/W form this horse is weighted to reverse placing with the majority of the field. Furthermore the abundance of hold up performers in the field should mean that the Storm gets an uncontested lead if he breaks well. There has been money around for the Evans horse (Forty Proof) who makes his debut for the yard and is drawn near KS. The horse clearly has ability but he is a problem horse, he is regularly taken to post early, he pulls hard and he is a definite hold up performer which in my opinion is a disadvantage at Kempton and for those reasons I am happy to take him on. As far as the other runners go, Rightcar is bound to be there at the finish and Automotive is an interesting runner who tries sprinting for the first time. Personally being a Beat Hollow progeny I wouldn't fancy his chances but Fielden is a savvy trainer and I will be intrigued to see how he runs.
All things considered Kyllachy Strom is definitely the horse me, and I can't help but feel that he is massively overpriced. He looks like a cracking e/w bet and if he isn't sent to the front straight away by baker then I can always look to lay him in running to cover my loses because he will not win this race from off the pace. "
My Last Time Out Comment - Horse finished 3rd
"5:50 Kempton - KYLLACHY STORM (12/1) - 15 points e/w - When looking at sprint races at Kempton the first thing I look for is a confirmed front runner, drawn in a low stall, with an experienced jockey onboard. Kyllachy meets all of those criteria and is also well below his last winning mark. His last win came over CD with Baker in the saddle; he was drawn in stall 2 and made all to win by a length. The time of that win represents the quickest recorded in today’s field and therefore if the same tactics are employed by Baker, I can't really see anything else improving enough to catch him.
Regarding his recent form, Kyllachy returned from a substantial break LTO in a seller and was well beaten finishing 4 of 4. In my opinion this run can be ignored, the horse will definitely have needed the race and the trainer has a very poor record in sellers anyway, so that race was never going to be the target. His last win came on his second run out following a substantial break from the track and therefore the bounce factor shouldn’t be a problem especially as the horse has had over a month to recover.
Another positive factor in my selections favour is that on past grass and A/W form this horse is weighted to reverse placing with the majority of the field. Furthermore the abundance of hold up performers in the field should mean that the Storm gets an uncontested lead if he breaks well. There has been money around for the Evans horse (Forty Proof) who makes his debut for the yard and is drawn near KS. The horse clearly has ability but he is a problem horse, he is regularly taken to post early, he pulls hard and he is a definite hold up performer which in my opinion is a disadvantage at Kempton and for those reasons I am happy to take him on. As far as the other runners go, Rightcar is bound to be there at the finish and Automotive is an interesting runner who tries sprinting for the first time. Personally being a Beat Hollow progeny I wouldn't fancy his chances but Fielden is a savvy trainer and I will be intrigued to see how he runs.
All things considered Kyllachy Strom is definitely the horse me, and I can't help but feel that he is massively overpriced. He looks like a cracking e/w bet and if he isn't sent to the front straight away by baker then I can always look to lay him in running to cover my loses because he will not win this race from off the pace. "
Scottish Grand National
SCOTTISH GRAND NATIONAL KEY TRENDS
1. Run within the last 60 days
2. won a Class 1 or 2 race
3. won a race over 3 miles or longer
4. no more than six runs in the season
5. have an official rating of between 132-143
6. aged between 8-10 years old
7. fallen or unseated no more than twice
8. Carries 10st 9lb or less
9. double-figure price in the betting
10. Finished in the first 3 places in its last race.
11. Not a favourite
12. Competed at the festival
13. Trained by Nicholls, Ferdy Murphy or Twiston Davis
Taking these key trends into account I have excluded all runners in the field who do not meet the requirements of numbers 3, 6 and 7 above the only exception to this rule is POTRAIT KING.
POTENTIAL SELECTIONS
SELECTION KEY TREND MATCHES
FRUITY O’ROONEY 1+2+3+4+6+7+9+10+11+12
GALAXY ROCK 1+2+3+4+6+7+9+10+11
POTRAIT KING 1+2+3+4+5+7+8+10+11
MOSTLY BOB 1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8+9+11+12
QUENTIN COLONGES 1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8+9+10+11
HARRY THE VIKING 1+2+3+4+5+6+7+10+12+13
ANY CURRENCY 3+4+6+7+8+9+11
PETTIFOUR 1+2+3+4+6+7+8+9+11+12+13
MAC AEDA 1+3+4+6+7+8+9+11
FREDO 1+2+3+4+6+7+8+9+11+12
RED HARBOUR 1+2+4+6+7+8+9+10+11
CAPTAIN AMERICO 1+3+4+6+7+8+9+10+11
POSH BIRD 1+3+4+6+7+8+9+11
On the basis of the stats above which account for all key trends, PETTIFOUR (40/1), QUENTIN COLONGES (20/1) & MOSTLY BOB (20/1) come out on top having met 11 of the 13 key criteria. It may be a very simplistic way to approach the race, but in my opinion stats rarely lie and it may well be worth having an e/w bet on all three of these. The one which obviously catches the eye is Pettifour who comes from a key yard and presumably has been running over hurdles to protect his handicap mark. This one could run a massive race at a massive price.
Thursday, 19 April 2012
Newbury opener info
Big word received for Blue Jack (9/2) in the 1:35. This horse will apparently be the subject of a big gamble tomorrow and if you decide to follow this tip I suggest that you get on a soon as possible.
2 tips for wolves tonight
7:05 - Almaty Expess (5/1) - "This horse is thought to have a very good chance of winning the race and will be heavily backed. The Harris horse will look to set the perfect pace, Morris will sit on the rail on his heels and accelerate clear in the final few hundred yards." That's what I've been told so I'm going to have a win bet.
9:05 - Just Timmy Marcus (5/1) - This one is my personal selection and after a run of decent efforts the trainer may have just found the perfect race. Hopefully we see the horse back in the winners enclosure.
Could this be three in a row?
4:10 - MIBLISH (33/1) - E/W - I've already backed two in the race so I'm reluctant to back a third but I can't oppose this guy at the moment considering the run he is on. The horse is outside of his usual stable though so will be interested to see how this one runs.
No joy with Mibilish which was a shame but the guy rang me straight after the race and told me to get stuck into Ryan Moore's mount in the 5:20 (EL DIAMANTE 22/1) E/W. Why the last race is of any significance to the result in the 4:10 I have no idea but apparently it was. As always take the info with a pinch of salt but he was openly excited about this one.
No joy with Mibilish which was a shame but the guy rang me straight after the race and told me to get stuck into Ryan Moore's mount in the 5:20 (EL DIAMANTE 22/1) E/W. Why the last race is of any significance to the result in the 4:10 I have no idea but apparently it was. As always take the info with a pinch of salt but he was openly excited about this one.
Another massive winner
Yesterday my guy at HQ gave the readers a 33/1 winner and today he has done it again as Rougemont wins the 3:10 at an advised price of 28/1!
He has one more to come later on the card and this one could be the biggest one yet. Will he make it three in a row, I hope so!
He has one more to come later on the card and this one could be the biggest one yet. Will he make it three in a row, I hope so!
One more to add
Just had the call from my friend and his first selection is now a non runner. His second pick is unfortunately in the 4:10 and having already backed two runners in the race I wont be backing any further selections. For the record though his advice was to back BEAUFORT TWELVE to win, which was a bold statement considering his was as big as 40/1 in some places this morning. He also suggested that I place lay the Bell runner BORN TO SURPRISE. Obviously I won't be following his advice for the reasons already mentioned but this talented tipster is a man who's advice should definitely be considered if you are reader who hasn't already had a bet in the race.
Today Selection and Info
Lots of races to get through today so wont be going into too much detail.
Newmarket
1:50 - GRAPHIC GUEST (8/1) - E/W - This horse has a very nice pedigree and is from a family which the trainer knows all about. He has some high profile entries and although the favourite will be very difficult to beat, I think this one has an e/w shout. The Hills runner Mrs Warren is expected to need the run but should progress into a reasonable type this season.
2:25 - MUKHADRAM (3/1) NAP - This horse is strongly fancied by connections and is thought to be a very promising type, the opposition doesn't look that great and the yard are hopeful that he will win the race in good style. Like Mrs Warrne the Hill's runner Bunraku is expected to need the run but he has been performing very nicely at home and at a big price he could be a tasty little e/w bet.
3:00 - ROUGEMONT (28/1) & HANDSOME MAN (14/1) E/W - The first selection came from the same source that gave me the 33/1 winners yesterday and this horse is thought to be overpriced and rates as a good e/w bet. The second selection is a very promising type who is destined for great things, whether he will be primed for the race is uncertain but if he is then I strongly believe that he will go very close. The Hills runner ELLAAL has been the subject of positive reports but is a horse which divides opinion in the camp. No one is 100% sure whether the horse will stay this kind of distance and on the basis of pedigree it looks unlikely but his work at home is encouraging. If they go off at a crawl today then he would definitely have an e/w shout and although a few in the yard are having a place punt, I'm going to use the race as a watching brief as far as he is concerned.
3:35 - SIRIUS PROSPECT (4/1) - This horse flopped on his debut this season but looked in need of the run and is clearly a lot better than that performance. He has been the subject of positive reports from the camp in the last few days and I expect this horse to continue his progression today. As far as e/w alternatives go, ELUSIVITY is the talking horse and when this yard back their runners they usually go very close and I expect Spencer to make a valiant attempt to make all. For those looking to back the Favourite GENKI he will be held up and will probably hit a bigger price than the SP in running so if you fancy him take advantage of the in play market.
4:10 - FORGOTTEN HERO (15/2) E/W & MIGHTY AMBITION (6/1) WIN - It is almost impossible for me to pick between these two and for that reason I had to back them both. The Hill's runner is thought to be something a little bit special and the way he travels in a race is incredibly exciting. He Michael can get him settled early on then he could be the dark horse in this race and he is definitely destined for big and better things this season. MIGHTY AMBITION is a horse which I have always like and have been waiting for him to make his reappearance for a while. Along with Handsome Man this horse looks likes one of Godolphins more exciting prospects.
4:45 - RANSOM NOTE (6/1) E/W - Now I wouldn't usually go e/w on a 6/1 shot but despite the strong word which I received from the Hill's camp I have to fear Twice Over who on his day is a class above this field.
5:20 - SHAME ON YOU (15/1) and RIOT OF COLOUR (13/2) E/W - The Hill's yard fancy their runner in this race and I have also had a word for the Beckett runner. Looks like an open affair so I have decided to back them both e/w but only small stakes.
5:50 - MARTIN CHUZZLEWIT (4/1) - Received a very strong word for this horse earlier today and he is my NB of the Newmarket meeting today.
Cheltenham
2:35 - QUASPAL (8/1) E/W - Now looking at this horses chasing profile you would be very concerned about backing him today, however the handicapper has given him a real chance awarding him with an opening mark of just 120. He wouldn't be the first horse from this illustrious connections to show significant improvement on his handicap debut and I have a feeling we may see the horse in a better light today.
3:45 - INSIDER DEALER (9/1) E/W - Now this is an INFO selection and he is apparently expected to go very close today. Personally I can't really see it but the guy very rarely gets it wrong and I'm having a small e/w punt on this one.
Wolverhampton
6:05 - BLACK CADILLAC (6/4) - This horse is fully expected to get the job done today and I have had a nice sized bet on this one.
That concludes today's bets but I'm waiting for a call from a friend who has two strong fancies today so I will post them as soon as I get the call.
Newmarket
1:50 - GRAPHIC GUEST (8/1) - E/W - This horse has a very nice pedigree and is from a family which the trainer knows all about. He has some high profile entries and although the favourite will be very difficult to beat, I think this one has an e/w shout. The Hills runner Mrs Warren is expected to need the run but should progress into a reasonable type this season.
2:25 - MUKHADRAM (3/1) NAP - This horse is strongly fancied by connections and is thought to be a very promising type, the opposition doesn't look that great and the yard are hopeful that he will win the race in good style. Like Mrs Warrne the Hill's runner Bunraku is expected to need the run but he has been performing very nicely at home and at a big price he could be a tasty little e/w bet.
3:00 - ROUGEMONT (28/1) & HANDSOME MAN (14/1) E/W - The first selection came from the same source that gave me the 33/1 winners yesterday and this horse is thought to be overpriced and rates as a good e/w bet. The second selection is a very promising type who is destined for great things, whether he will be primed for the race is uncertain but if he is then I strongly believe that he will go very close. The Hills runner ELLAAL has been the subject of positive reports but is a horse which divides opinion in the camp. No one is 100% sure whether the horse will stay this kind of distance and on the basis of pedigree it looks unlikely but his work at home is encouraging. If they go off at a crawl today then he would definitely have an e/w shout and although a few in the yard are having a place punt, I'm going to use the race as a watching brief as far as he is concerned.
3:35 - SIRIUS PROSPECT (4/1) - This horse flopped on his debut this season but looked in need of the run and is clearly a lot better than that performance. He has been the subject of positive reports from the camp in the last few days and I expect this horse to continue his progression today. As far as e/w alternatives go, ELUSIVITY is the talking horse and when this yard back their runners they usually go very close and I expect Spencer to make a valiant attempt to make all. For those looking to back the Favourite GENKI he will be held up and will probably hit a bigger price than the SP in running so if you fancy him take advantage of the in play market.
4:10 - FORGOTTEN HERO (15/2) E/W & MIGHTY AMBITION (6/1) WIN - It is almost impossible for me to pick between these two and for that reason I had to back them both. The Hill's runner is thought to be something a little bit special and the way he travels in a race is incredibly exciting. He Michael can get him settled early on then he could be the dark horse in this race and he is definitely destined for big and better things this season. MIGHTY AMBITION is a horse which I have always like and have been waiting for him to make his reappearance for a while. Along with Handsome Man this horse looks likes one of Godolphins more exciting prospects.
4:45 - RANSOM NOTE (6/1) E/W - Now I wouldn't usually go e/w on a 6/1 shot but despite the strong word which I received from the Hill's camp I have to fear Twice Over who on his day is a class above this field.
5:20 - SHAME ON YOU (15/1) and RIOT OF COLOUR (13/2) E/W - The Hill's yard fancy their runner in this race and I have also had a word for the Beckett runner. Looks like an open affair so I have decided to back them both e/w but only small stakes.
5:50 - MARTIN CHUZZLEWIT (4/1) - Received a very strong word for this horse earlier today and he is my NB of the Newmarket meeting today.
Cheltenham
2:35 - QUASPAL (8/1) E/W - Now looking at this horses chasing profile you would be very concerned about backing him today, however the handicapper has given him a real chance awarding him with an opening mark of just 120. He wouldn't be the first horse from this illustrious connections to show significant improvement on his handicap debut and I have a feeling we may see the horse in a better light today.
3:45 - INSIDER DEALER (9/1) E/W - Now this is an INFO selection and he is apparently expected to go very close today. Personally I can't really see it but the guy very rarely gets it wrong and I'm having a small e/w punt on this one.
Wolverhampton
6:05 - BLACK CADILLAC (6/4) - This horse is fully expected to get the job done today and I have had a nice sized bet on this one.
That concludes today's bets but I'm waiting for a call from a friend who has two strong fancies today so I will post them as soon as I get the call.
Wednesday, 18 April 2012
8:05 Kempton
MAssive gamble on LOYAL N TRUSTED, I had a piece e/w at a massive price and then laid he when the price shortened dramatically. If history is anything to go on then MR CHOCOLATE DROP (5/1) will win and I've had a small win bet on him under Kirby.
5:20 Newmarket
SHANTARAM - Very strong word received for this one and it is fully expected to do the business, bit short but could still prove to be value if it destroys the field as expected.
Today has been a strange old day, I called the opening maiden completely wrong as the un-raced horses dominated. In the conditional race I landed the winner and the 2nd place (hardly a great achievement). The third race saw Balty Boy flop but I did tip up the eventual winner and the third placed horse (33/1) was my strong e/w fancy in the race and was also detailed in the NB column.The 3:35 was a complete write off as was my info bet in the 3:55 at Beverley but then my day improved significantly as I landed a 33/1 info selection in the 4:10 and also tipped up two placed horse. The celebration were short lived though as my NAP of the day failed in his attempt to record a win on his reappearance and that put a significant dent in my betting balance. As an eternal optimist I am however always confident that the next winner is just around the corner and I hope that this next info selection will get me back on track.
Today has been a strange old day, I called the opening maiden completely wrong as the un-raced horses dominated. In the conditional race I landed the winner and the 2nd place (hardly a great achievement). The third race saw Balty Boy flop but I did tip up the eventual winner and the third placed horse (33/1) was my strong e/w fancy in the race and was also detailed in the NB column.The 3:35 was a complete write off as was my info bet in the 3:55 at Beverley but then my day improved significantly as I landed a 33/1 info selection in the 4:10 and also tipped up two placed horse. The celebration were short lived though as my NAP of the day failed in his attempt to record a win on his reappearance and that put a significant dent in my betting balance. As an eternal optimist I am however always confident that the next winner is just around the corner and I hope that this next info selection will get me back on track.
BEVERLEY INFO
3:55 - CABAL (7/1) - Horse is still believed to be well handicapped and should continue her improvement today. Advice was to go for a win bet but with money coming for the Fahey horse I'm going e/w.
Cheltenham NAP
I have one major fancy today at Cheltenham and that is BENBENS(9/2) in the 4:20. This horse won me a tidy sum LTO (see comment below) and I fancy him to go very close today. Personally I think the handicapper has given this horse a major shout by only raising him 3lb for his last win as on his past form against Fox Appeal (rated 138) and Imperial Circus (won yesterday off 121) I think this horse should be rated at least 122+. Obviously the race today is competitive with 19 runners going to post but I think this horse will continue his improvement and should run a big race at a nice price.
Last time out comment from my P/L thread on GG.COM (http://www.gg.com/forum/topic.php?id=124020&page=3)
“2:05 Newbury - BENBENS (10/1) - 25pts e/w. Now if I'm honest I can't really understand why this horse is such a big price. Its last run was back in December when he went down by a short head to FOX APPEAL in a Class 3 event over 3m 1f at Taunton. He was racing off a mark of 107 that day and was subsequently raised to 114 for today’s race. The winner that day is now rated at 130 and that mark is due to rise again prior to his entry in the Albert Bartlet (25/1). Now a literal reading of that form would suggest that this horse is well ahead of the handicapper and although the Fav (Buck Magic) will be hard to beat, I just think that one may have bounce written all over him “
The Kempton Double
Two horse are fancied to win at Kempton tonight towards the end of the card. The first is PALAZZO BIANCO (15/8) in the 7:35 and the second is DARK ANGEL(7/4) in the 9:05. This looks like a very lucrative double and I've had a nice lump on this one.
4:10 Newmarket
Had a small word from the track at Newmarket today for ESENTEPE in the 4:10, the horse is apparently thought to have an ew chance and is currently available at around 33/1 with most firms. I have had a look at the horses past form and personally I think she could be seriously overpriced. Its an open looking race with plenty of e/w value and I will be having a punt on this one.
Newmarket Picks Tips and Info
I absolutely love this meeting and have had a lot of success in the past. I have assessed the majority of the races on the card and will be posting my selection and NB in every race. There is also a bit of info mixed in for good measure which will hopefully pay dividends.
1:50 - Now this is a race that in the past has been dominated by the Hills camp and they have a very strong candidate in the form of QANNAAS. This horse performed at a reasonable level last season and has been training well at home over the winter. The general thought in the yard is that this one should go close tomorrow but that its a difficult race to call. Personally I think that he may well be the horse to be on but in order to put everyone in the picture its only appropriate that I take a look at the rest of the major players.
For those that give strength to key trends, this maiden hasn't be won by a newcomer for a considerable amount of time and therefore one should proceed with caution if looking to back the expensive debutant's COURAGE & COGITO. Furthermore, horses who have raced already as a 3yo don't have a great record either and therefore their claims may prove to be a bit suspect. Both the Gosden and Zarooni horse fall into this category and they were both rather disappointing last time out but both yards runners usually come on for a run and surely we will see them in a better light at some point this season, but I don't think they will be winning tomorrow. With that in mind I believe this race will go to one of the experienced season debutant's tomorrow and two potential dangers to Quannas in my opinion will be POOLE HARBOUR and FLAXEN FLARE and for me the Hannon horse looks like a really good e/w bet for those looking to oppose the favourite. He's clearly not straight forward (only raced twice last season despite making his debut in May) but he did appear in some good looking maidens and if he has trained on then I'm sure he will be in the mix. He is also a bit older than most of the runners in the field and therefore sure be slightly more developed.
SELECTION - QANNAAS
NEXT BEST - POOLE HARBOUR (E/W)
2:25 - This conditional juvenile race is one which has been dominated by short priced favourites and Richard Hannon in recent years but the yard don't have representative today. BAILEY'S JUBILEE is destined to go off as a short priced favourite for the Johnson yard and I think he will be very difficult to beat. The Hills do have a representative in the form of LUCKY BEGGAR though and this debutant may be a good alternative for those willing to have a punt against the favourite. The horse has a nice pedigree (sire has plenty of first time out winners), has been working well at home, is developed and may well give the favourite a run for his money. He will probably need a bit further in time but I would always take a colt against a filly and I will have a small win bet on this one.
SELECTION - BAILEY'S JUBILEE
NEXT BEST - LUCKY BEGGAR
TATTERSALLS MILLIONS
This race is ridiculous competitive this year and its definitely a difficult puzzle to solve. The starting point really has to be BALTY BOY who is clearly the pick at the weights but has a few questions to answer. This horse featured in my 2yo watch list last year but on the whole was a frustrating type. A few times he was fancied by the yard but for one reason or another he never performed to the expected level. Despite that his best performance came over CD last season and a repeat of that run would see him go very close today. He is a horse that always races prominently and that will definitely be in his favour, connections are certain that this is his ideal distance and this has been his big target this season as entries are limited. I would be very surprised if this one didn't at least place but I will still be having a look at the rest of the runners starting with the fancied SAMITAR.
SAMITAR is without doubt a very exciting prospect and she was one of the best 2yo fillies around last season. However I have some major reservations about backing here for win purposes tomorrow. Firstly she is up against the lads tomorrow and that is sure to make life difficult, secondly I don't believe for a second that she is a 6f horse and connections have openly stated that this is a prep for the guineas. With Spencer booked I would be pretty sure that she will go off like a rocket and attempt to hold on for a win. This should tee the race up perfectly for those horses that race prominently and I can see her being headed about 110 yards from home.
The next horse in the market is VALBCECK and he looks like a very interesting type. This Acclamation colt made his debut at a maiden at Lingfield and he was punted off the board, he won under a text book Murtagh ride despite showing obvious signs of greenness. The race that day was over 7f but there is no doubt that this horse is a ready made sprinter, he is less experienced than the rest of the field and although he will have learnt from his last run this represents a significant step up in class and the worry would be that this is a little bit too much. However as always with this yard if the money comes then he has to be taken very, very seriously.
With a few doubts lingering over the three horses at the head of the market it may pay to look for an e/w alternative and there are plenty of them. The one which I really like is TIDENTIME, he had some good form last season and is highly thought of in the Channon camp. He has bundles of tactical speed but also stays 7f so with the prospect of a strong pace tomorrow he could get a race which is run to suit. The Channon yard has had a good start to the season and I really don't think that this one is just there to make up the numbers. At 16/1 he looks like good value.
SELECTION - BALTY BOYS
NEXT BEST - VALBECK & TIDENTIME
The 3:35 is a race which is all about the return of ZUMBI and I for one can't wait to see how this horse runs. His performance in the group 3 race at York last season was an eye taking performance and I was very surprised that connections didn't turn the horse out again and one can only assume that he may have had a few niggles. Either way this horse should prove to be too classy for the field today if he has trained on and with the market already speaking in his favour this horse should give Stoute his first winner of the season.
SELECTION - ZUMBI (NB)
NEXT BEST - REDACT
4:10 - You only have to look at the past results in the race to see that its a bit of a lottery and personally its not a race which I will be getting involved in. I do have a few e/w fancies for the race though and if I was to have a punt I would probably start with the trainers who in the past have done well in the race e.g Gosden, Channon and Fahey. Fahey looks to have a very nice type in the form of LILY'S ANGEL who has a similar profile to the yards winner last year. She has come in for a bit of early money on the exchanges and with the current form of the stable it wouldn't be surprising if this one won. Channon turns up mod handed with three runners and its difficult to choose between them so the market is probably the best indicator of their chances. Gosden turns out STARSCOPE for the first time since his win last season and this horse looks like a real prospect, he fits the stable of the yards previous winners and I for me this horse is probably the most likely winner although the godolphin horses always need to be shown respect.
SELECTION - STARSCOPE
NEXT BEST - LILY'S ANGEL & PIMPERNEL
4:45 - This is the race that everyone in the Hill's yard is looking forward to as it features PERENNIAL. I landed a big bet on this horse on its debut last year at 12/1 after receiving a Strong word from my yard. This horse is one of the most promising horses in the yard and he is primed for a big run on his reappearance today. Although the Gosden horse will be difficult to beat I'm prepared to lump on this one today and its my NAP of the meeting.
SELECTION - PERENNIAL (NAP)
NEXT BEST - JUNGLE BEAT
5:20 - This looks like a good middle distance maiden but its one I wont be getting involved in, I know the Hill's yard thing that their runner could prove to be smart and should build on his performance last season but with so many top yards with representatives I plan to use this race as a watching brief.
5:45 - I wont be having a bet in this race unless I hear something about a runner during the course of the day. With 16 runners going to post and a mix of exposed and unexposed runners, its just too difficult to call.
So that concludes my thoughts for today's Newmarket card and I hope that all the hard work pays off and it turns out to be a good day for me and the Hill's yard. If I get a chance I will be having a look at the other meetings today and will post my thoughts if I see anything I fancy, may also have a few bits of info coming in later on in the day.
All the best guys.
1:50 - Now this is a race that in the past has been dominated by the Hills camp and they have a very strong candidate in the form of QANNAAS. This horse performed at a reasonable level last season and has been training well at home over the winter. The general thought in the yard is that this one should go close tomorrow but that its a difficult race to call. Personally I think that he may well be the horse to be on but in order to put everyone in the picture its only appropriate that I take a look at the rest of the major players.
For those that give strength to key trends, this maiden hasn't be won by a newcomer for a considerable amount of time and therefore one should proceed with caution if looking to back the expensive debutant's COURAGE & COGITO. Furthermore, horses who have raced already as a 3yo don't have a great record either and therefore their claims may prove to be a bit suspect. Both the Gosden and Zarooni horse fall into this category and they were both rather disappointing last time out but both yards runners usually come on for a run and surely we will see them in a better light at some point this season, but I don't think they will be winning tomorrow. With that in mind I believe this race will go to one of the experienced season debutant's tomorrow and two potential dangers to Quannas in my opinion will be POOLE HARBOUR and FLAXEN FLARE and for me the Hannon horse looks like a really good e/w bet for those looking to oppose the favourite. He's clearly not straight forward (only raced twice last season despite making his debut in May) but he did appear in some good looking maidens and if he has trained on then I'm sure he will be in the mix. He is also a bit older than most of the runners in the field and therefore sure be slightly more developed.
SELECTION - QANNAAS
NEXT BEST - POOLE HARBOUR (E/W)
2:25 - This conditional juvenile race is one which has been dominated by short priced favourites and Richard Hannon in recent years but the yard don't have representative today. BAILEY'S JUBILEE is destined to go off as a short priced favourite for the Johnson yard and I think he will be very difficult to beat. The Hills do have a representative in the form of LUCKY BEGGAR though and this debutant may be a good alternative for those willing to have a punt against the favourite. The horse has a nice pedigree (sire has plenty of first time out winners), has been working well at home, is developed and may well give the favourite a run for his money. He will probably need a bit further in time but I would always take a colt against a filly and I will have a small win bet on this one.
SELECTION - BAILEY'S JUBILEE
NEXT BEST - LUCKY BEGGAR
TATTERSALLS MILLIONS
This race is ridiculous competitive this year and its definitely a difficult puzzle to solve. The starting point really has to be BALTY BOY who is clearly the pick at the weights but has a few questions to answer. This horse featured in my 2yo watch list last year but on the whole was a frustrating type. A few times he was fancied by the yard but for one reason or another he never performed to the expected level. Despite that his best performance came over CD last season and a repeat of that run would see him go very close today. He is a horse that always races prominently and that will definitely be in his favour, connections are certain that this is his ideal distance and this has been his big target this season as entries are limited. I would be very surprised if this one didn't at least place but I will still be having a look at the rest of the runners starting with the fancied SAMITAR.
SAMITAR is without doubt a very exciting prospect and she was one of the best 2yo fillies around last season. However I have some major reservations about backing here for win purposes tomorrow. Firstly she is up against the lads tomorrow and that is sure to make life difficult, secondly I don't believe for a second that she is a 6f horse and connections have openly stated that this is a prep for the guineas. With Spencer booked I would be pretty sure that she will go off like a rocket and attempt to hold on for a win. This should tee the race up perfectly for those horses that race prominently and I can see her being headed about 110 yards from home.
The next horse in the market is VALBCECK and he looks like a very interesting type. This Acclamation colt made his debut at a maiden at Lingfield and he was punted off the board, he won under a text book Murtagh ride despite showing obvious signs of greenness. The race that day was over 7f but there is no doubt that this horse is a ready made sprinter, he is less experienced than the rest of the field and although he will have learnt from his last run this represents a significant step up in class and the worry would be that this is a little bit too much. However as always with this yard if the money comes then he has to be taken very, very seriously.
With a few doubts lingering over the three horses at the head of the market it may pay to look for an e/w alternative and there are plenty of them. The one which I really like is TIDENTIME, he had some good form last season and is highly thought of in the Channon camp. He has bundles of tactical speed but also stays 7f so with the prospect of a strong pace tomorrow he could get a race which is run to suit. The Channon yard has had a good start to the season and I really don't think that this one is just there to make up the numbers. At 16/1 he looks like good value.
SELECTION - BALTY BOYS
NEXT BEST - VALBECK & TIDENTIME
The 3:35 is a race which is all about the return of ZUMBI and I for one can't wait to see how this horse runs. His performance in the group 3 race at York last season was an eye taking performance and I was very surprised that connections didn't turn the horse out again and one can only assume that he may have had a few niggles. Either way this horse should prove to be too classy for the field today if he has trained on and with the market already speaking in his favour this horse should give Stoute his first winner of the season.
SELECTION - ZUMBI (NB)
NEXT BEST - REDACT
4:10 - You only have to look at the past results in the race to see that its a bit of a lottery and personally its not a race which I will be getting involved in. I do have a few e/w fancies for the race though and if I was to have a punt I would probably start with the trainers who in the past have done well in the race e.g Gosden, Channon and Fahey. Fahey looks to have a very nice type in the form of LILY'S ANGEL who has a similar profile to the yards winner last year. She has come in for a bit of early money on the exchanges and with the current form of the stable it wouldn't be surprising if this one won. Channon turns up mod handed with three runners and its difficult to choose between them so the market is probably the best indicator of their chances. Gosden turns out STARSCOPE for the first time since his win last season and this horse looks like a real prospect, he fits the stable of the yards previous winners and I for me this horse is probably the most likely winner although the godolphin horses always need to be shown respect.
SELECTION - STARSCOPE
NEXT BEST - LILY'S ANGEL & PIMPERNEL
4:45 - This is the race that everyone in the Hill's yard is looking forward to as it features PERENNIAL. I landed a big bet on this horse on its debut last year at 12/1 after receiving a Strong word from my yard. This horse is one of the most promising horses in the yard and he is primed for a big run on his reappearance today. Although the Gosden horse will be difficult to beat I'm prepared to lump on this one today and its my NAP of the meeting.
SELECTION - PERENNIAL (NAP)
NEXT BEST - JUNGLE BEAT
5:20 - This looks like a good middle distance maiden but its one I wont be getting involved in, I know the Hill's yard thing that their runner could prove to be smart and should build on his performance last season but with so many top yards with representatives I plan to use this race as a watching brief.
5:45 - I wont be having a bet in this race unless I hear something about a runner during the course of the day. With 16 runners going to post and a mix of exposed and unexposed runners, its just too difficult to call.
So that concludes my thoughts for today's Newmarket card and I hope that all the hard work pays off and it turns out to be a good day for me and the Hill's yard. If I get a chance I will be having a look at the other meetings today and will post my thoughts if I see anything I fancy, may also have a few bits of info coming in later on in the day.
All the best guys.
Tuesday, 17 April 2012
Today in the news
Today was one of those days which leaves you tearing your hair out. My first selection of the day cruised to the front two from home only to fall at the last and that pretty much set the tone for the rest of my day.
Next on the betting slip was the so called Max Bet which looked more like a donkey than a race horse. To be fair he was too keen early on, and clearly didn't handle the easing ground, the jockey didn't give up but the horse was clearly short of what was required.
My second info selection in the 3:50 did give me hope before the off, as expected it was heavily punted and ran a great race but was headed in the final 100 yards to finish second. The third info horse was completely friendless in the market but ran a good race to finish third at 16/1 and I was quite happy with that.
My personal e/w fancy of the day Mister Dillion ran a similar race to my punt in the opener but instead of falling, he found absolutely nothing once in front and ended up trotting home in second place. My attempt at a saver in the lucky last at Southwell didn't quite go to plan either, as once again I manage to land another 2nd place. At the end of the day this game is all about near misses and those 3 second places and the first place faller could have so easily turned into a nice four timer. Tomorrow is a new day and I'm currently getting my teeth stuck into the Newmarket card, plenty of very smart horses going to post and the hills camp have no fewer than 7 runners.
Let the fun begin!
Next on the betting slip was the so called Max Bet which looked more like a donkey than a race horse. To be fair he was too keen early on, and clearly didn't handle the easing ground, the jockey didn't give up but the horse was clearly short of what was required.
My second info selection in the 3:50 did give me hope before the off, as expected it was heavily punted and ran a great race but was headed in the final 100 yards to finish second. The third info horse was completely friendless in the market but ran a good race to finish third at 16/1 and I was quite happy with that.
My personal e/w fancy of the day Mister Dillion ran a similar race to my punt in the opener but instead of falling, he found absolutely nothing once in front and ended up trotting home in second place. My attempt at a saver in the lucky last at Southwell didn't quite go to plan either, as once again I manage to land another 2nd place. At the end of the day this game is all about near misses and those 3 second places and the first place faller could have so easily turned into a nice four timer. Tomorrow is a new day and I'm currently getting my teeth stuck into the Newmarket card, plenty of very smart horses going to post and the hills camp have no fewer than 7 runners.
Let the fun begin!
5:10 Southwell
Today has been disappouting to say the least. The so called max bet flopped and my other picks/info all ran well but could only place. In an attempt to end the day in better shape I'm going for a win but on Dunnaskin (5/1) in the lucky last as Southwell.
The MAX BET info
As promised I have obtained a tip from a top inside info source who usually charges top whack for his tips. As he is a personal friend of mine he has given me one for free to celebrate the launch of the new blog.
The horse is EMPEROR CHARLIE (9/2) in the 2:50 at Kempton and this one is expected to hose up at a very nice price. For those of you wanting to hedge your bets there is a little bit of e/w value to be had. He also has some big gambles lined up for the Newmarket meeting and if I can twist his arm into giving me them for free then I will post them up here.
Best of luck and as always only bet what you can afford to lose.
The horse is EMPEROR CHARLIE (9/2) in the 2:50 at Kempton and this one is expected to hose up at a very nice price. For those of you wanting to hedge your bets there is a little bit of e/w value to be had. He also has some big gambles lined up for the Newmarket meeting and if I can twist his arm into giving me them for free then I will post them up here.
Best of luck and as always only bet what you can afford to lose.
Info
Just had a phone call for MEMORY CLOTH (12/1 BOG) E/W in the 4:10 at Southwell. At the moment the gambled horse is ALL RIGHT NOW who looks to have strong claims on his recent form, however Memory Cloth is apparently primed for a big run on his Southwell debut and with the trainer having such a formidable record at the track, I have no reason to doubt my source.
Monday, 16 April 2012
TOMORROWS SELECTIONS & INFO
On the whole today was a good day with a winning info double and a few personal picks that went very close to winning. Tomorrow is a new day and I have been concentrating on the Kempton NH meeting which features some progressive horses and an info horse hunting to make a winning reappearance for the 3 year in a row.
I'm going to kick things off with the opening race on the card which is a Novice Hurdle event over 2 miles, and the horse I fancy is BOLD HENRY (5/2). This races looks to be a sprint to the finish between my selection and the McCain horse CALL BACK. My personal feeling is that the form of Bold Henry's previous races is substantially better than that of Call Back as he has come up against the likes of New Years Eve, Super Duty, Keys, North Cape and Claret Cloak all of whom look quite smart. With the slight drop in trip and the nature of the track at Kempton certain to suit, I fancy this one to do the business tomorrow. The trainer had a good time at Aintree and the yards form is clearly improving. O'Brien takes the mount and is a quality jockey, especially from the front, and hopefully he makes good use of Henry in the early stages which will be critical to this horses chances. I'm not going to get too carried away with this one but I am going to have a reasonable win bet (BOG) when the market forms and I expected it to open up around 5/2-3/1.
My next selection comes in the 3:50 in the form of KIKOS (7/1) and he is the big INFO bet for tomorrow. This horse is returning from a 172 absence and takes a drop back in trip on his reappearance, he is back below his highest winning mark (120) and is horse that you want to catch fresh. Kikos always shows his best form around this time of year (won twice on his spring debut) and connections are apparently confident that he will go very close to winning tomorrow. The only slight concern would be the forecast heavy rain as the horse wouldn't want too much cut, but if it does get sticky underfoot the general feeling is that he will be declared a non-runner. Currently priced up around 7/1 so there is plenty of e/w value and I will be having a chunky e/w bet on this one.
Final bet of the day comes in the 4:50 and its MISTER DILLION (6/1) E/W. When you review how the form of his previous races have panned out (especially his last run) this horse has to be well handicapped off a mark of 118. I can't help but think that the handicapper has made a massive mistake allowing him to run off the same mark as he did at Taunton back in December and I fully expect this one to continue his progression tomorrow. The trainer is in fine form, the jockey claims an additional 5lb and I would be very, very surprised if this horse isn't in the mix at the finish. Once again I will be having a chunky ew bet.
So that completes tomorrow's selections and I'm hoping to land a few more winners. I will be making a few calls in the morning to see if I can obtain any info for Southwell and Exeter and will update the blog as and when I hear anything, so watch this space.
I'm going to kick things off with the opening race on the card which is a Novice Hurdle event over 2 miles, and the horse I fancy is BOLD HENRY (5/2). This races looks to be a sprint to the finish between my selection and the McCain horse CALL BACK. My personal feeling is that the form of Bold Henry's previous races is substantially better than that of Call Back as he has come up against the likes of New Years Eve, Super Duty, Keys, North Cape and Claret Cloak all of whom look quite smart. With the slight drop in trip and the nature of the track at Kempton certain to suit, I fancy this one to do the business tomorrow. The trainer had a good time at Aintree and the yards form is clearly improving. O'Brien takes the mount and is a quality jockey, especially from the front, and hopefully he makes good use of Henry in the early stages which will be critical to this horses chances. I'm not going to get too carried away with this one but I am going to have a reasonable win bet (BOG) when the market forms and I expected it to open up around 5/2-3/1.
My next selection comes in the 3:50 in the form of KIKOS (7/1) and he is the big INFO bet for tomorrow. This horse is returning from a 172 absence and takes a drop back in trip on his reappearance, he is back below his highest winning mark (120) and is horse that you want to catch fresh. Kikos always shows his best form around this time of year (won twice on his spring debut) and connections are apparently confident that he will go very close to winning tomorrow. The only slight concern would be the forecast heavy rain as the horse wouldn't want too much cut, but if it does get sticky underfoot the general feeling is that he will be declared a non-runner. Currently priced up around 7/1 so there is plenty of e/w value and I will be having a chunky e/w bet on this one.
Final bet of the day comes in the 4:50 and its MISTER DILLION (6/1) E/W. When you review how the form of his previous races have panned out (especially his last run) this horse has to be well handicapped off a mark of 118. I can't help but think that the handicapper has made a massive mistake allowing him to run off the same mark as he did at Taunton back in December and I fully expect this one to continue his progression tomorrow. The trainer is in fine form, the jockey claims an additional 5lb and I would be very, very surprised if this horse isn't in the mix at the finish. Once again I will be having a chunky ew bet.
So that completes tomorrow's selections and I'm hoping to land a few more winners. I will be making a few calls in the morning to see if I can obtain any info for Southwell and Exeter and will update the blog as and when I hear anything, so watch this space.
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