About Me

For the past few years, I have dedicated the majority of my time to horse racing. I have become an established member of numerous racing forums and I am sure a few of you will have seen my 'Please Ignore' threads on GG and Everythinghorseracing.co.uk (great forum). In my spare time I also advise a number of parties concerning bloodstock and dosage profiles. In the last 5 years I have formulated numerous selection filters and rating systems which have allowed me to achieve substantial profit on a yearly basis. I have also established links with a number of stables, and receive regular info which I will share on the blog as and when I receive it. For me horse racing is a passion and I'm always looking at ways to improve, both as a tipster and as an equine enthusiast. I hope you enjoy reading my blog and feel free to contact me either via email at myhorseracing101@gmail.com or via twitter at horses4course.

Friday, 20 April 2012

Scottish Grand National


SCOTTISH GRAND NATIONAL KEY TRENDS


1. Run within the last 60 days
2. won a Class 1 or 2 race
3. won a race over 3 miles or longer 
4. no more than six runs in the season
5. have an official rating of between 132-143
6. aged between 8-10 years old
7. fallen or unseated no more than twice
8. Carries 10st 9lb or less
9. double-figure price in the betting 
10. Finished in the first 3 places in its last race.
11. Not a favourite
12. Competed at the festival 
13. Trained by Nicholls, Ferdy Murphy or Twiston Davis


Taking these key trends into account I have excluded all runners in the field who do not meet the requirements of numbers 3, 6 and 7 above the only exception to this rule is POTRAIT KING.


POTENTIAL SELECTIONS 


SELECTION                    KEY TREND MATCHES
FRUITY O’ROONEY 1+2+3+4+6+7+9+10+11+12
GALAXY ROCK         1+2+3+4+6+7+9+10+11
POTRAIT KING         1+2+3+4+5+7+8+10+11
MOSTLY BOB         1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8+9+11+12
QUENTIN COLONGES 1+2+3+4+5+6+7+8+9+10+11
HARRY THE VIKING 1+2+3+4+5+6+7+10+12+13
ANY CURRENCY         3+4+6+7+8+9+11
PETTIFOUR                 1+2+3+4+6+7+8+9+11+12+13
MAC AEDA                 1+3+4+6+7+8+9+11
FREDO                         1+2+3+4+6+7+8+9+11+12
RED HARBOUR         1+2+4+6+7+8+9+10+11
CAPTAIN AMERICO 1+3+4+6+7+8+9+10+11
POSH BIRD                 1+3+4+6+7+8+9+11


On the basis of the stats above which account for all key trends, PETTIFOUR (40/1), QUENTIN COLONGES (20/1) & MOSTLY BOB (20/1) come out on top having met 11 of the 13 key criteria. It may be a very simplistic way to approach the race, but in my opinion stats rarely lie and it may well be worth having an e/w bet on all three of these. The one which obviously catches the eye is Pettifour who comes from a key yard and presumably has been running over hurdles to protect his handicap mark. This one could run a massive race at a massive price.  

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3 comments:

  1. YoungMickFan20 April 2012 at 09:47

    Brilliant write up mate. very informative. cheers.

    ReplyDelete
  2. jj20 April 2012 at 10:05

    howdy jevans, cheers for all the info mate, i live near the owners of Galaxy Rock and i was told to forget its last few runs, it will be spot on for the Scottish National. Also have word that Florafern will be very competitive in the 5.05 at Ayr today..gl

    ReplyDelete
  3. Racing10120 April 2012 at 10:56

    2:30 Exeter - FLORAFERN (4/1) - 14 point win - I was trying to place 20 points on this one when I say that it was avalible at 5.0 on the exchanges. Unfortunately only 14pts were matched and the price has now shortened significantly. In all honesty I can see absolutely no reason why this horse isn't favourite. You can discarde his last run as he was held up in a race which favoured horses who raced up with the pace. When you take that race out of the equation you will see that he has finished 2nd on 4 of his last 5 starts. That level of form should definitely be good enough for a race of tomorrows quality and for me the only real danger is the Tizzard horse but the trainers terrible record in hurdles races at exeter is enough to put me off that one.

    Thats what I posted on GG.com the last time Florafern ran and he won very well. He is a horse which I really like and he is definitely on the upgrade. I will be backing him today and will be posting up a write up in the next half hour.

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