Newbury Spring Cup

Going to start off with some key trends for the race.

Last Run Finishing Position
No run = 0%
1st = 38 runs 2 wins 4 places
2nd = 25 runs 2 wins 2 places
3rd = 19 runs 1 win 2 places
4th = 24 runs 3 wins 5 places

Official Ratings
101+ = 19 runs 0 winners
90 -100 = 143 runners 7 wins
80-89 = 117 runners 5 winners
67 -79 = 26 runners 2 winners (78 & 79)
Starting Price

9/2 - 6/1 = 13 runners, 2 wins, 3 places
13/2 - 8/1 = 20 runners, 1 win 6 places
17/2 - 12/1 = 52 runners, 7 wins, 12 places

Horse Age
4 yo's = 146 runners, 10 wins, 19 places
5 yo's = 78 runners, 2 wins, 15 places
6 yo's = 40 runners, 1 win, 3 places
7 yo's = 22 runners, 0 wins, 3 places

Position in the market
No winners from outside of the top 10 (12 placed horses from 145 runners)

Days Since Last Run

1-7 days = 12 runners, 1 win, 1 place
8-15 days = 42 runners, 2 wins, 7 places
16-30 days= 107 runners, 5 wins, 13 places
31 - 60 days= 11 runners, 1 win, 2 places
121 - 365 days = 110 runners, 5 wins, 16 places

Key Weight Bracket

8st 7lb - 8st 12lb

So roughly speaking we are looking for 4 or 5 yo horse who was 4th LTO (0-30 days), has an OR between 80 and 89, is priced between 9/2 and 12/1 and is weighted between 8st 7lb and 8st 12lb.

Now on the basis of the key trends above a few horses catch the eye, those closest to the required trends are CAPTAIN BERTIE & MONT RAS. Now having recieved a call from my guy earlier this evening I know that the Hill's camp really fancy their runner in this one and its hardly surprising when you consider how unlucky he was last time out. He is also proven over the distance and he handles a bit of ease in the ground so shouldn't have any problem on that front. For me he is a real danger and although a price of 11/2 isnt ideal in a race which is basically a bit of a lottery, this one has to be regarded as a *** bet.

Mont Ras obviously fits the majority of the key criteria, he is 5 years old, was placed last time out, has an OR of 88 and carries 8st 10lb. The yard have booked a top notch jockey for the race so they obviously mean business but he is yet to prove that he handles soft ground and coming out of stall 2 he will have to break very smartly if he is to win tomorrow. All things considered I would rate him as a * bet.
For those looking for a tasty priced e/w outsider I would suggest that close attention is given to KARAKA JACK (33/1), he meets a few of the key trends and he has drawn stall 11 which over the years has proved to be a good place to be. Obviously he has done the majority of his racing over 7 furlongs which has to be a concern as the trip will take some getting tomorrow but I think he may surprise a few people.

Finallly my friend the Longshot has a selection in this race and its in the form of MAVERICK (40/1) no idea why he fancies it though so I'm awarding this one a * rating.

In conclusion my bets in the race are as follows;

CAPTAIN BERTIE (11/2) - *** Rating
MONT RAS (14/1) - * Rating
MAVERICK (40/1) - * Rating