Punchestown Key Trends
Champion Hurdle
Last time out
1st = 42 runs, 9 wins, 11 places
2nd = 24 runs, 4 wins, 2 places
3rd = 6 runs, 1 win, 0 places
Only winners not to finish 1st, 2nd or 3rd LTO was 8th
Horse Age
5 yo’s = 52 runs, 7 wins, 12 places
6 yo’s = 46 runs, 7 wins, 8 places
7 yo’s = 16 runs, 1 win, 3 places
Odds range
10/11 or less = 7 runs, 4 wins, 2 places
Evens – 9/4 = 10 runs, 6 wins, 2 places
5/2 – 6/1 =25 runs, 3 wins, 6 places
13/2 – 12/1 = 27 runs, 2 wins, 8 places
Official Rating
No OR = 81 runs, 10 wins, 15 places (no qualifiers today)
Rest of the winners have been rated between 136 & 157
Days Since Last run
1-7 days = 4 runners, 0 win, 1 place
8-15 days =27 runners, 2 wins, 1 place
16-30 days = 41 runners, 5 wins, 12 places
31-90 days = 6 runners, 2 wins, 0 places
Additional Stats
10/10 have been distance winners
10/10 have competed in between 3-8 hurdle races
7/10 winner of a Grade 1 or Grade 2 hurdle.
Conclusion
Personally I believe that the market has this one spot on and Trifolium deserves to be a short priced favourite. He meets most of the key trends, has a good record at the track, handles heavy ground, likes racing in small fields and has a jockey on board who knows what it takes to win at the festival. If I had one slight concern it would be that this horse is at his best when competing after a shorter break but it’s nothing to get too concerned about. Those looking for an e/w alternative may go for the mount of Ruby Walsh but he will have his work cut out to beat the favourite. As for Alderwood, he has plenty of key stats against him and for me that makes him vulnerable. I won’t be having a bet in the race as the fav is too short for me, but I fully expect him to win.
Champion Chase
Last time out
1st = 27 runs, 7 wins, 7 places
2nd = 16 runs, 2 wins, 3 places
3rd = 23 runs, 1 win, 4 places
4th = 12 runs, 1 win, 1 place
5th = 7 runs, 3 wins, 3 places
Horses Age
6 yo’s = 6 runs, 2 wins, 1 place
7 yo’s = 8 runs, 0 wins, 1 place
8 yo’s = 35 runs, 5 wins, 9 places
9 yo’s =34 runs, 5 wins, 4 places
10 yo’s = 17 runs, 3 wins, 2 places
Horses Odds
6/4 or Less = 11 runs, 5 wins, 2 places
13/8 and 4/1 = 15 runs, 3 wins, 4 places
9/2 and 8/1 = 30 runs, 5 wins, 8 places
17/2 and 20/1 = 39 runs, 2 wins, 4 places
Horse weight
10-11 = 12 runs, 1 win, 2 place
11-6 = 4 runs, 1 win, 0 place
11-7 = 4 runs, 0 wins, 0 place
11-9 = 6 runs, 1 win, 1 place
11-12 = 55 runs, 8 wins, 10 place
12-0 = 28 runs, 4 wins, 5 place
Days since last run
16-30 days = 45 runs, 5 wins, 10 places
31-60 days = 35 runs, 7 wins, 4 places
Additional Stats
9 or the last 10 winners have come from the first four in the betting
9 winners had previously run at the Cheltenham Festival (Champion Chase first 6 home)
Conclusion
This is a very tough race to call and there is no doubt that Sizing Europe deserves to win this after all the drama of the Champion Chase but I just have a feeling that he may be vulnerable and with the odds so prohibitive I have decided to side with REALT DUBH e/w at 17/2. This horse is the right age, carries the right weight, ran at the festival (Champion Chase 5th), has won over CD and handles heavy ground. I’m hoping he can continue the good record of horses that finished 5th LTO in this race and at least give Sizing a run for his money. He is my only bet at the festival today and I rate him as a ** bet.
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