I absolutely love this meeting and have had a lot of success in the past. I have assessed the majority of the races on the card and will be posting my selection and NB in every race. There is also a bit of info mixed in for good measure which will hopefully pay dividends.
1:50 - Now this is a race that in the past has been dominated by the Hills camp and they have a very strong candidate in the form of QANNAAS. This horse performed at a reasonable level last season and has been training well at home over the winter. The general thought in the yard is that this one should go close tomorrow but that its a difficult race to call. Personally I think that he may well be the horse to be on but in order to put everyone in the picture its only appropriate that I take a look at the rest of the major players.
For those that give strength to key trends, this maiden hasn't be won by a newcomer for a considerable amount of time and therefore one should proceed with caution if looking to back the expensive debutant's COURAGE & COGITO. Furthermore, horses who have raced already as a 3yo don't have a great record either and therefore their claims may prove to be a bit suspect. Both the Gosden and Zarooni horse fall into this category and they were both rather disappointing last time out but both yards runners usually come on for a run and surely we will see them in a better light at some point this season, but I don't think they will be winning tomorrow. With that in mind I believe this race will go to one of the experienced season debutant's tomorrow and two potential dangers to Quannas in my opinion will be POOLE HARBOUR and FLAXEN FLARE and for me the Hannon horse looks like a really good e/w bet for those looking to oppose the favourite. He's clearly not straight forward (only raced twice last season despite making his debut in May) but he did appear in some good looking maidens and if he has trained on then I'm sure he will be in the mix. He is also a bit older than most of the runners in the field and therefore sure be slightly more developed.
SELECTION - QANNAAS
NEXT BEST - POOLE HARBOUR (E/W)
2:25 - This conditional juvenile race is one which has been dominated by short priced favourites and Richard Hannon in recent years but the yard don't have representative today. BAILEY'S JUBILEE is destined to go off as a short priced favourite for the Johnson yard and I think he will be very difficult to beat. The Hills do have a representative in the form of LUCKY BEGGAR though and this debutant may be a good alternative for those willing to have a punt against the favourite. The horse has a nice pedigree (sire has plenty of first time out winners), has been working well at home, is developed and may well give the favourite a run for his money. He will probably need a bit further in time but I would always take a colt against a filly and I will have a small win bet on this one.
SELECTION - BAILEY'S JUBILEE
NEXT BEST - LUCKY BEGGAR
TATTERSALLS MILLIONS
This race is ridiculous competitive this year and its definitely a difficult puzzle to solve. The starting point really has to be BALTY BOY who is clearly the pick at the weights but has a few questions to answer. This horse featured in my 2yo watch list last year but on the whole was a frustrating type. A few times he was fancied by the yard but for one reason or another he never performed to the expected level. Despite that his best performance came over CD last season and a repeat of that run would see him go very close today. He is a horse that always races prominently and that will definitely be in his favour, connections are certain that this is his ideal distance and this has been his big target this season as entries are limited. I would be very surprised if this one didn't at least place but I will still be having a look at the rest of the runners starting with the fancied SAMITAR.
SAMITAR is without doubt a very exciting prospect and she was one of the best 2yo fillies around last season. However I have some major reservations about backing here for win purposes tomorrow. Firstly she is up against the lads tomorrow and that is sure to make life difficult, secondly I don't believe for a second that she is a 6f horse and connections have openly stated that this is a prep for the guineas. With Spencer booked I would be pretty sure that she will go off like a rocket and attempt to hold on for a win. This should tee the race up perfectly for those horses that race prominently and I can see her being headed about 110 yards from home.
The next horse in the market is VALBCECK and he looks like a very interesting type. This Acclamation colt made his debut at a maiden at Lingfield and he was punted off the board, he won under a text book Murtagh ride despite showing obvious signs of greenness. The race that day was over 7f but there is no doubt that this horse is a ready made sprinter, he is less experienced than the rest of the field and although he will have learnt from his last run this represents a significant step up in class and the worry would be that this is a little bit too much. However as always with this yard if the money comes then he has to be taken very, very seriously.
With a few doubts lingering over the three horses at the head of the market it may pay to look for an e/w alternative and there are plenty of them. The one which I really like is TIDENTIME, he had some good form last season and is highly thought of in the Channon camp. He has bundles of tactical speed but also stays 7f so with the prospect of a strong pace tomorrow he could get a race which is run to suit. The Channon yard has had a good start to the season and I really don't think that this one is just there to make up the numbers. At 16/1 he looks like good value.
SELECTION - BALTY BOYS
NEXT BEST - VALBECK & TIDENTIME
The 3:35 is a race which is all about the return of ZUMBI and I for one can't wait to see how this horse runs. His performance in the group 3 race at York last season was an eye taking performance and I was very surprised that connections didn't turn the horse out again and one can only assume that he may have had a few niggles. Either way this horse should prove to be too classy for the field today if he has trained on and with the market already speaking in his favour this horse should give Stoute his first winner of the season.
SELECTION - ZUMBI (NB)
NEXT BEST - REDACT
4:10 - You only have to look at the past results in the race to see that its a bit of a lottery and personally its not a race which I will be getting involved in. I do have a few e/w fancies for the race though and if I was to have a punt I would probably start with the trainers who in the past have done well in the race e.g Gosden, Channon and Fahey. Fahey looks to have a very nice type in the form of LILY'S ANGEL who has a similar profile to the yards winner last year. She has come in for a bit of early money on the exchanges and with the current form of the stable it wouldn't be surprising if this one won. Channon turns up mod handed with three runners and its difficult to choose between them so the market is probably the best indicator of their chances. Gosden turns out STARSCOPE for the first time since his win last season and this horse looks like a real prospect, he fits the stable of the yards previous winners and I for me this horse is probably the most likely winner although the godolphin horses always need to be shown respect.
SELECTION - STARSCOPE
NEXT BEST - LILY'S ANGEL & PIMPERNEL
4:45 - This is the race that everyone in the Hill's yard is looking forward to as it features PERENNIAL. I landed a big bet on this horse on its debut last year at 12/1 after receiving a Strong word from my yard. This horse is one of the most promising horses in the yard and he is primed for a big run on his reappearance today. Although the Gosden horse will be difficult to beat I'm prepared to lump on this one today and its my NAP of the meeting.
SELECTION - PERENNIAL (NAP)
NEXT BEST - JUNGLE BEAT
5:20 - This looks like a good middle distance maiden but its one I wont be getting involved in, I know the Hill's yard thing that their runner could prove to be smart and should build on his performance last season but with so many top yards with representatives I plan to use this race as a watching brief.
5:45 - I wont be having a bet in this race unless I hear something about a runner during the course of the day. With 16 runners going to post and a mix of exposed and unexposed runners, its just too difficult to call.
So that concludes my thoughts for today's Newmarket card and I hope that all the hard work pays off and it turns out to be a good day for me and the Hill's yard. If I get a chance I will be having a look at the other meetings today and will post my thoughts if I see anything I fancy, may also have a few bits of info coming in later on in the day.
All the best guys.
Nice write ups
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