Today's Selections (1.05.12)

Some good looking races today and I have received a few bits of info and also have a couple of strongly fancied personal selections;

Yarmouth Selections

2:40 - SIR MAXIMILLIAN (4/1) - 5pt win - Now those that know me will know that I'm not a big fan of Spencer as a jockey but he looks to have a good chance of winning a race with this horse. This Royal Applause colt was heavily backed on its debut but put in a disappointing performance to finish 5th. The ride given by Mr Spencer that day was far from excellent but he does actually ride Yarmouth pretty well and there is no doubt that he wont make the same mistake today. Obviously the fav is proven on today's heavy ground and will therefore be difficult to beat by Sir Max does have a bit of stamina in his pedigree so although his sire doesn't have a great record in the conditions he should still stay on strongly.   At 4/1 the horse looks like good value and 4pts on the win looks like the right kind of stake to me.

4:40 - NOLECCE (8/1) - 1.5pts e/w - I received a phone call about this horse earlier in the day and was told that it should prove to be a good e/w bet. Connections apparently believe that today's conditions are ideal and that the drop in trip, combined with a change in headgear will bring about significant improvement. I'm not 100% sure that they are correct but the horse is a heavy ground winner and does look to have a claim so I've had a small e/w bet.

Lingfield Selections

3:30 - POSSIBLY (5/1) - 3pt win - usually I would have had a bigger bet on a horse like this but I know that the ex Hill's recruit Saratonga Slew is thought to be well handicapped and a better run is also expected from the Moore horse but despite those little bits of info I still believe that Possibly is a solid betting proposition. This Exceed and Excel progeny is stepping up to 7f for the first time on her handicap debut and gets into this race off a bottom weight. On the basis of her pedigree she is likely to need even further than this in time but its not a bad distance to start off at and it will definitely suit her better than 5-6f. The trainer has made a reasonable start to the season and has a very good strike rate at the course. I rate the jockey extremely highly and from a nice draw I believe that this filly will go very close to taking the prize.

Kempton Selection

8:05 - LASTKINGOFSCOTLAND (12/1) - 3pts e/w - I strongly fancy this horse to go very close to recording his 12th career win tonight. The race is packed full of front runners and is certain to be run at a blistering pace. My selection is well drawn to sit in behind the pace setters and there is no doubt that HT will look to time her run as late as possible. The horses ability to stay 7f (6 times winner) will be a very valuable commodity as I believe that a few of the horses will be tiring late on and hopefully HT will put the horse in a position to capitalize. There has been plenty of money around for a few of the horses in the race this morning and it will be interesting to see how LKOS performs in that department in the next few hours, but at the moment 12/1 looks like good value.

Ballinrobe Selection


4:55 - SIX STONE NED (9/2) - 6 point win - Difficult little race to call but my friend in Ireland fancies this one and I've decided to follow him. The horse has put in some pleasing performances in bumpers and makes his hurdling debut today. On a literal reading of his race against Primeroseandblue (runs in the 5:25) this horse should have the edge over the likes of Celestial Prospect and Passage Vendome and with his trainer operating at a 27% win rate over hurdles in the past season and with the stable jockey in the saddle, everything points towards a big race. I will also be placing a 2pt double with this horse and Primeroseandblue (5/1) in the 5:25 who will hopefully frank the form of this race later on the card.

Sedgefield Selection


8:15 - MAC STEAMY (9/2) - 10 point win - This horse is my strongest bet of the day and I really fancy him to do the business in this average looking bumper. The horse has performed well in PTP races in Ireland and has been the subject of some very positive race reviews in that sphere. He handles soft ground and is sired by horse who has his fair share of bumper winners. Although he may be vulnerable to a horse with a turn of foot, this race looks sure to be a real test of stamina as the course will probably be riding on the heavy side of soft by the time they run, and no doubt Mcguire will set off fast on the fav (its the only way he knows how to ride). If this turns into a test of stamina as expected then this horse will be staying on better than any of his competitors.  The trainer doesn't get winners anywhere else but Sedgefield and Charlie Huxley is very good value for his 3lb claim. Everything looks to be falling into place nicely and I would have thought that this one will probably go off shorter than the current price.

So that confirms today's selections and I'm hopeful of landing a few winners. I'm yet to hear from my guy in the Hill's yard about their runners chances but my initial view, having looked at them all, would be that they are up against it for win purposes today.

Starting Bank = 605.21
Total Bets = 35 points


P.S - For those looking to back a few short priced favourites today I can tell you with the up most confidence that KHUBALA (2:00 Ling) GRANDILOQUENT (6:35 Kempton) are both expected to be very, very difficult to beat. For me the odds are prohibitive though and I won't be backing them today.